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US30 trade ideas

DOW JONES 15 year cheat-sheet that can make you rich!Dow Jones (DJI) is extending what seems a relentless rally since the August 05 Low, which was the most recent short-term correction, but in reality the index has been rallying very aggressively since the October 23 2023 Low. That was when after a 3-month correction, it found Support above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and 2 weeks later it reclaimed the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been supporting ever since. So basically the index has been on a 1W MA50 Support for 1 whole year! What's more striking however and what short-term traders/ investors tend to ignore are the long-term Cycles of a financial asset. And Dow being one, is no exception. As mentioned, the 1W MA200 supported the October 23 2023 Low and in effect has been holding since October 10 2022 (so for 2 full years!), two weeks after the Inflation Crisis bottom. Since then we have been inside a Bull Phase. This is part of a greater trading Cycle for Dow, one that started 1 year after the March 2009 market bottom of the historic Housing Crisis. As you can see, the pattern is recurring and the phases have a high symmetry and frequency among them. First and foremost, they tend to do two Lows within a 1 year span, which is essentially the Bear Phase, which finds Support on the 1W MA200 (exception was of course the Black Swan of the COVID flash crash but it is of course a non-technical irregularity event) and then rebounds, effectively starting the Bull Phase. The first 2 Bull Phases rose by +75.80%, while the most recent by +70.80%, so we are roughly around the same strength levels. Also as far as duration is concerned, the 1st Bull Phase lasted for 1239 days (177 weeks), the 2nd for 1134 days (162 weeks) and the 3rd for 1106 days (158 weeks). Again the time element is quite similar. Notice also the similar pattern that the 1W MACD prints every time Dow enters the final part of the Bull Phase. As a result, if we apply those dynamic conditions on the current Bull Phase, we can see that a minimum rise of +70.80% from the bottom, should peak a little over 48000, and if it last a minimum of 1106 days (158 weeks) it should come to an end and price the top by October 06 2025. This indicates that we have at least another full year of bullish trend ahead of us and a fair Target could be 48000. As you realize, investors who are methodically following this 15 year old cheat-sheet, know where and when to buy/ sell and that achieves investing's two main principles: Profit Maximization and Risk Management. Patience and proper management within such Cycles are what "can make you rich" indeed. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
8
DJI, Elliott wave analysisOutlook for DJI on the 12h chart. There have been no changes since the last update. It looks like the waves of the upper degree are forming an Expanded Flat, and the waves of the lower degree are forming a Expanding Diagonal. We are probably in sub-wave c of wave 5, and the final wave 5 within sub-wave c will complete soon. If this scenario is correct, the target of final wave 5 will be 43,273* to 43,783**. After that, the resistance line (black dotted line) will reject all waves, the upper-degree wave (b) will complete. The next phase is the upper-degree wave (c). It will probably crash. *1.618 times the upper degree wave (a). **1.618 times the upper degree wave a. Last time, my idea: Sep 27, 2024. Short-term analysis.
TVC:DJIShort
by EWA-tokyo
Rinse and repeat - an updated ideaOverview The analysis takes a broader perspective by examining the 5-day chart instead of the 1-day, leading to clearer insights, with wavetrend analysis and On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicating a pattern similar to that observed in November 2021. Technical Outlook Short-Term (4-hour Chart) - Current State: DJI appears overextended and due for a correction. - Immediate Forecast: Anticipated pullback to the 50 EMA, approximately at the 39.3k level. Medium-Term Forecast - Early August: Further decline expected to around 38.3k. - September: Predicting a sharp increase to an all-time high (ATH) near 41.5k in early to mid-September. - Post-ATH Movement: A significant drop to the 37.5k region, followed by a recovery phase leading up to the election period, stabilizing around 40k. Post-Election and Long-Term Forecast - After Election: Pessimistic outlook with a substantial decrease anticipated, potentially reaching 33.9k by mid-January. - End of Q1 Rally: A typical rally is expected where stocks may surge until the end of March. - Mid to End of May: Anticipating a downturn until finding a bottom near this time frame. Beyond May - The market's direction is uncertain post-May; however, there is speculation of a recovery influenced by potential rate cuts, which could stimulate buyer interest. Conclusion This analysis suggests a cyclical pattern in the DJI with significant fluctuations. Investors should prepare for volatility, especially surrounding key events such as the election and watch for economic indicators like interest rate changes for longer-term market direction cues
DJ:DJI
by elliott77
1
US30 / Upcoming Earnings Expected to Drive Bullish MomentumFutures Mixed Ahead of Earnings-Heavy Week; Key Economic Data in Focus U.S. stock index futures were mixed on Monday as investors braced for a week filled with third-quarter earnings reports and critical economic data, which may put stretched stock market valuations to the test. Technical Outlook: The price has rallied, driven by earnings gains, and remains positioned for further advances in anticipation of upcoming earnings data. The overall trend is bullish, provided the price trades above 42810 and 42450. A potential retest down to 42450 is possible, contingent on a 4-hour candle closing below 42810. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 42810 Resistance Levels: 43025, 43260, 43500 Support Levels: 42610, 42450, 42300 Trend Outlook: Bearish By breaking 42800 Bullish by stability above 42810 previous idea:
OANDA:US30USDLong
by SroshMayi
DreamAnalysis | US30 on the Edge Key Levels & Crucial Scenarios!✨ Today’s Focus: Dow Jones (US30) – A Market Mover We’ll break down the latest price movements and explore potential trends by analyzing key market levels. 🚨 Previous Analysis Recap: In our last analysis, we anticipated a dip into the Equal Lows (EQL) before a reversal higher, and that’s exactly what played out. But what's next? Let's dive into all possible scenarios together. 📊 Current Market Overview: The price has recently taken a major Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) level at the Previous Month High (PMH), and we’re now hovering near the Previous Week High (PWH). This proximity to key levels sets the stage for the next move. 🔴 What to Expect: Short-term vs Long-term Scenarios This section outlines what we can anticipate in both short-term and long-term contexts, considering both bullish and bearish possibilities for day trading. 🗣 Short-term Outlook: A crucial focus for the short term is the previous week’s range, highlighted on the chart using Fib Retracement. Pay attention to the 50% level and the Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) zone. We might see price break through Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) below the 50% level to balance the range, possibly tapping into the Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) for a rebalancing move. 🗣 Long-term Outlook: Currently, we’re trading in a premium zone, which means two potential outcomes: continuation or reversal. - Continuation: If the SSL above the Daily FVG is swept, we could see the price drive even higher. - Reversal: An aggressive drop below the 4H and Daily Imbalances could trigger a reversal, leaving behind a Balance Price Range (BPR) with both bullish and bearish FVGs. The bearish FVGs, in particular, could play a crucial role. 🕓 Key Levels to Watch: These are pivotal zones that could influence price action: - PMH: Previous Month High - PML: Previous Month Low - PWH: Previous Week High - PWL: Previous Week Low - BSL: Buy-Side Liquidity - SSL: Sell-Side Liquidity - Daily FVG: Fair Value Gap (Imbalance zone) These levels indicate where the price might seek liquidity or rebalance. FVGs represent zones where the market may retrace before continuing its trend. 📈 Bullish Scenario: For bullish setups, we need lower time frame (LTF) confirmations, such as the 15m chart. Look for liquidity sweeps and target higher levels like the Previous Week High (PWH). 📉 Bearish Scenario: While it’s possible to look for short entries now, the ideal scenario would be for the price to first take out the Previous Week High. After that, the target could be the Sell-Side of the chart, including the Daily Imbalance and SSL. 📝 Conclusion: Stay adaptable as market conditions evolve. Monitoring these key levels and setups can help refine your strategy and spot high-probability opportunities. 🔮 Looking Ahead: Stay tuned for updates as we keep an eye on NASDAQ, DXY, EUR/USD, and other major markets. Timely insights will follow as trends unfold. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CAPITALCOM:US30
by DreamAnalysis