$DXY 103.6finally at our line in the sand and confluence of 200 ema on the 3 day
wee bounce here then we break the 200 ema and start moving like jagger
first reaction assuming some sort of squeeze of shorts before more downside
USDX trade ideas
Elliott Wave View Dollar Index (DXY) Nesting Impulsively LowerShort Term Elliott Wave View in Dollar Index (DXY) suggests the decline from 1.13.2025 peak is taking the form of an impulse with extension (nesting). Down from there, wave 1 ended at 106.97 and rally in wave 2 ended at 109.88. The ETF extended lower in wave 3 which is unfolding in 5 waves in lesser degree. Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 106.12 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Rally in wave ((ii)) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 106.79 and pullback in wave (b) ended at 106.16. Rally in wave (c) ended at 107.65 which completed wave ((ii)) in higher degree.
The ETF extended lower in wave ((iii)). Down from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 105.87 and wave (ii) rally ended at 106.38. The ETF extended lower in wave (iii). Expect wave (iv) rally to fail for further downside to complete wave (v) of ((iii)). Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((i)). This area comes at 101.59 – 103.9 where wave (v) of ((iii)) should end. Near term, as far as pivot at 107.65 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
DXY + 10Y TANKING = BULL MARKETAs expected, the DXY is TANKING alongside the 10Y, and the WMA9 is finally breaking below the 20.
This combo is turbo juice for markets, as it allows Central Banks around the world to stimulate and opens the door for more growth in the US economy.
Ignore asset prices.
Focus on the macro.
This is a leading indicator.
HODL.
EUR GBP & DXY Update--DXY Tanking as expectedFrom pre-new year analysis we expected by the printout that last year's high would be purged for liquidity and then we would fall out of the old imbalanced short range 🔑
Voila, what else could we expect. We are always on point with long term analysis.
Share with a friend in need 💰
USD Dramatic Drop on Recession ConcernsWhile tariff talk was a driver of strength for the USD, even into late last week, that dynamic has shifted, and it seems that the driver is worry or concern about possible recession in the U.S. economy.
Just last Wednesday, President Trump had a comment regarding tariffs on Europe, taking place around lunch time in New York. At the time, EUR/USD had just begun to re-test the Fibonacci level at 1.0523 again, but that comment helped to prod a pullback, and soon, a shorter-term reversal. That weakness in EUR/USD and strength in USD lasted into the end of the week, but so far this week, a very different tone has taken over.
This is probably helped at least in-part by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDP Now stat, which suggests a contraction for GDP for Q1. This is in stark contrast to the data point less than two months ago and it highlights the dimming in data that's shown of late. This has helped to push expectations for rate cuts even higher, and that's been the dragging point for USD so far this week.
Now, with weakness in the mix for the U.S., those tariff concerns are being perceived as another point of weakness and another factor that could further drive weakness into the USD. - js
DXY (Bitcoin - Alt Season - Bullish) everyone suddenly started posting DXY chart so I figured I should give my 2 cents on it as well.
People are finding hopes in DXY but main charts are still BTC.D and USDT.D
Monthly Chart has the whole picture
Weekly Chart (above) is what interests us
Breaking that Green Macro Trendline will be the 1st step towards success!
remember how yesterday everyone and their mothers were bearish except me?
This drama will continue, ignore the noise...
Reasons for dollar to stabilizeDollar strength is expected to stabilize or persist into 2025 for several reasons:
Economic growth differentials: The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2024, outpacing the 1.7% growth forecast for all developed markets. This is driven by superior productivity growth, higher business investment and fewer labor supply issues compared to other developed markets. Such robust growth, which has contributed to inflation remaining above 2%, may lead the Fed to halt rate cuts sooner than expected. This makes a dollar weakening unlikely in the short term.
Monetary policy differentials: The increasing divergence in global growth has led to a greater disparity in central bank policies worldwide. As a result, the gap between U.S. 10-year bond yields and those of its key trading partners has widened to its highest level since 1994. These differentials may remain elevated, as markets are currently pricing in only a limited number of Fed cuts next year (44bps), compared to 110bps for the ECB and rate hikes of 47bps in Japan.
Policy changes: The upcoming administration's focus on boosting domestic manufacturing, increasing tariffs and deregulating industries could spur business growth and sustain higher interest rates, supporting the dollar. President-elect Trump has also discussed imposing tariffs or other measures on countries that challenge the dollar's trade dominance or reserve currency status.
Even with the factors supporting the dollar, its ascent is unlikely to continue indefinitely. Currently, the dollar is two standard deviations above its 50-year average, suggesting limited room for further appreciation. Historically, the dollar has alternated between periods of strength and weakness, making a downturn likely at some point, though the timing is uncertain. Additionally, the U.S.'s persistent trade balance deficit, at 4.2% of GDP as of September 2024, poses a long-term constraint, highlighting a structural challenge that could eventually pressure the currency.
A strong dollar can hurt international company performance for U.S.-based investors. It can also negatively impact U.S. companies with significant international exposure and U.S. exports by making goods more expensive abroad. While a stronger dollar could bolster the 'U.S. exceptionalism' narrative in 2025, investors should carefully assess its potential impact on their portfolios.
Technically, we had a cup and handle formation, which we previously broke. Now, we are in the pullback of the break, and it make a triangle for wave 4. Remember wave dos was a flat. For that matter, this strong down momemtun, could be a retracement or wave 2 of 5.
The US Dollar Index has lost momentumThe US Dollar Index has lost momentum. We previously saw optimism and bullishness around the time of the elections. However, after the new President took office, the signing of numerous executive orders and discussions on tariffs led to a decline in trust in the US dollar. We might see a reaction when prices reaches to to historic election pump.
DXY - A Full Breakdown of Buying & Selling OpportunitiesA full breakdown of the US. Dollar Index looking at recent trading opportunities for both those who want to get long or get short.
In this video we'll take a look at the Cypher Pattern, Support & Resistance, Trend Trading, Fibonacci Tools & Psychological Numbers.
If you have any questions about the analysis or want to share your views, please do so below.
Akil
US DOLLAR Approaching Key Support – Will Buyers Step In?TVC:DXY is approaching a key support level, highlighted by strong buying interest. This area aligns with a trendline support level, increasing the likelihood of a bullish bounce if buyers step in.
If the price confirms support within this zone through bullish price action—such as long lower wicks or bullish engulfing candles—we could see a reversal toward 106.200, a logical target based on previous market structure and price behavior.
However, if the price breaks below this support zone and sustains, the bullish outlook would be invalidated, potentially leading to further downside.
Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management.
Best of luck!
DXY - Potential Pull Back before short strategyIn my mind have two scenario .. all with a short view for Dollar.
In the first we can have a strong break of support area directly
In the second we can have a pull back until 108.5 area
In this second way we will have a creation of an H&S pattern
This is my idea.
DXY | Good for MarketDisclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Please do your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Investments in stocks can be risky and may result in loss of capital.
Prepare for the storm, unload the dustsHave an odd feeling that dollar will dive before it goes strong throughout the year. Orange man wish to have a weak dollar, but I doubt he'll make it.
Dollar Index - End of February Analysis- Below the opening price of the 3-month bullish order block, a monthly BISI @ 104.636 – 105.420 presents itself
- Failed to see last months high taken out all whilst trading into the 6-month SIBI. Last months lows has been taken although price closed inside the previous. months range
- Studying a draw to February's low @ 106.126 as the 1st point of interest
- Monthly candle body closure above the midpoint of Februarys high and open will negate this idea.
DXYIf 109.46 DXY is broken, it will undoubtedly reach 111.61. At that point, a bearish reversal could occur
USD Down, but bounce expected. Intraday Update: The DXY hit the 161% extension of the Jan 27th lows to Feb 2nd highs. It's also the longer term 50% retracement. This "confluence" may allow for a bounce back to the 106.00 level before downside resumption.
DeGRAM | DXY rebound in the channelDXY is in a descending channel below the trend lines.
Price is moving from the lower boundary of the channel.
The chart has formed a harmonic pattern.
On the 4H Timeframe, the indicators are indicating oversold.
We expect a bounce.
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Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
DXY Should soon give way to the Silver ballistic PhaseDXY rolling over as Metals begin, finally, the Resumption of the Intermediate Cycle in Earnest
Your current most important DXY target until...The first target scenario in my mind for DXY is the Monthly fair value gap.
Market structure is now aligned for that too to play out.
- A monthly bullish gap is present below current price (inside the monthly accumulative range)
- A weekly bullish gap is being disrespected to the downside (indicating the lack of momentum, leaving this range)
- On the daily, price respects and creates bearish PD arrays.
I'm bearish on the higher timeframes, targeting the Monthly fvg, as long as price is closing below the Daily gap outlined in the chart.
(This is not to say that there are no high quality trades on the lower time frames, such as targeting the most recent daily gap to the upside)
Ok be safe byyyyyyy
DxyThis is a technical analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on a 2-hour timeframe. The chart indicates a bearish outlook, with price currently at 105.166 and showing signs of a downtrend.
Key Observations:
1. Downtrend Confirmation:
The price has been consistently forming lower highs and lower lows, suggesting bearish momentum.
2. Supply Zone (Red Box):
A red zone is marked at the top, indicating a possible resistance or supply zone.
This suggests that if the price moves back up into this area, it could face selling pressure and drop again.
3. Projected Price Action (White Box & Arrow):
The gray box below represents a potential target zone for the bearish move.
The zigzag pattern inside the box suggests a possible minor retracement before continuing downward.
Conclusion:
The analysis suggests a sell scenario if the price respects the supply zone and rejects it.
A break above the red zone would invalidate this bearish outlook.
The target area appears to be around 103.866, which aligns with a previous support level.
Would you like any modifications to this analysis?
DOLAR INDEX UPDATE: WEEK 11 OF 2025 FORECASTDOLAR INDEX UPDATE: WEEK 11 OF 2025 FORECAST
Theme: Decoding the Dollar Index’s Next Moves in 2025
Based on the weekly chart cycle, the Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to hit the following levels in Week 11 of 2025:
Upper Range: 107.6 - 108
Lower Range: 106 - 105 - 103.5
The lower range reflects the primary trend, signaling a bearish lean, while the upper range represents a short-term recovery wave. Keep an eye on these zones—2025’s twists could hinge on them!
EURUSD LTF BIASGood morning, this morning is a mixed bag of news, so we need to be cautious starting at 9. Still, the EURO is unstoppable due to the "pricing in" concept of Trump's policies. I’ll try to position myself for buys.
