DXY -DOLLAR INDEX BIASDollar is very strong and is rallying up, lets see if it can align with our set up on the third touch of the trend line for high sell opportunity on dollar related pairs.
USDX trade ideas
the importance of the liquidation of 106,269 is important beforeThe liquidation of 106,269 is important to walk it before increasing. so we will hope for a drop in the weekly demand zone before any prospect of an increase
US Dollar Index From a Technician’s Point of ViewBuyers and Sellers Squaring Off Between Monthly Support and Resistance
Monthly resistance from 109.33 was a technical headwind I monitored on the US Dollar Index for a while, and so far, it has not disappointed me. The said resistance welcomed moderate selling in February, and although the combination of the 107.35 high (October 2023) and 106.52 high (April 2024) could offer monthly support (see two red arrows), I am also watching the ‘local’ descending monthly support as a potential downside objective, taken from the noted high of 107.35.
Daily AB=CD Support Holds Firm
Meanwhile, price action on the daily timeframe reveals the Index rebounded from an area made up of ‘AB=CD support’ between the 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio at 105.77 and a 100% projection ratio of 106.65. It is common for AB=CD traders to target the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratios that are derived from legs A-D, which, in this case, rest at 107.70 and 108.64, respectively. You may also note that the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio shares chart space closely with resistance from 107.77. In addition, short-term flow on the H1 timeframe witnessed price rebound from support at 107.24 and shake hands with resistance at 107.61, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio that unites with trendline support-turned-resistance, taken from the low of 106.57.
Daily/H1 Resistances in Focus
Given possible monthly support in play from between 106.52 and 107.35, together with daily price manoeuvring from AB=CD support at 105.77-106.65 to within striking distance of resistance at 107.77 and H1 price connecting with resistance around 107.61, this is a thorny market to trade right now and hinges on how price behaves at the aforementioned daily/H1 resistances. Engulfing the noted resistances unearths a possible bullish scenario to the 50-day simple moving average at 108.00, followed by a potential move towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 108.64 on the daily chart. On the other hand, should bears take control of the current resistances, I would look for the unit to retest (and eventually consume) H1 support at 107.24 to potentially target H1 support at 106.75 (located just north of the daily AB=CD support zone).
Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
"Bearish Pressure on DXY: Key Levels to Watch"🔹 Technical Analysis of U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - 4H Chart
▪️Market Structure & Trend Analysis:
- The chart shows a clear downtrend in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), with a series of lower highs and lower lows.
- The price is trading below the 200-period moving average (blue line) and 50-period moving average (red line), reinforcing bearish sentiment.
🔹Key Levels:
1. Strong Resistance Area ( 107.300 - 107.400)
- This is a significant supply zone where sellers have aggressively pushed the price down in the past.
- The price recently tested this area and failed to break higher, indicating strong resistance.
2. Resistance Level for Further Downside ( 106.700 - 106.800)
- The price is struggling to stay above this level, which has now become a short-term resistance zone.
- If price stays below this level, further downside is likely.
3. Target Area ( 105.453)
- This is the next major support level, where price could find buying interest and potentially reverse or consolidate.
▪️Market Expectation:
- Bearish Continuation:
- If price remains below the 106.700 resistance level, it is likely to continue downward towards the 105.453 target zone.
- Invalidation of Bearish Bias:
- If price breaks and closes above 107.400, it could signal a trend reversal or deeper retracement.
🔹Conclusion:
- Bias: Bearish
- Trading Plan: Look for sell opportunities below resistance zones and target 105.453 for a potential move lower.
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Bearish then bullish I think open on Sunday, the USD Will bearish And then it’s probably gonna be bullish
DXY is headed for a Super-cycle TVC:DXY is headed for an e Supercycle that will rival what BTC has gone on over the past 5 years. USDXY’s chart from 1985 to today is the exact same pattern in BTC from 2016 to 2020 with a long double bottom a breakout retest and now the explosive impulsive move upward is left for DXY. The bull flag looks very strong on the chart and considering the length of the consolidation pattern the explosiveness to the upside could be like nothing this asset has ever seen before. As for how I'm actually playing this, I have positioned myself with heavy calls on AMEX:UUP that is the Dollar bull fund and mirrors dxy.
DOLLAR I Weekly CLS, OB, Model 1, 50% pullback possibleDOLLAR I Weekly CLS, OB, Model 1, 50% pullback possible
Hey Traders!!
Feel free to share your thoughts, charts, and questions in the comments below—I'm about fostering constructive, positive discussions!
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CLS represents the "smart money" across all markets. It brings together the capital from the largest investment and central banks, boasting a daily volume of over 6.5 trillion.
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These models are key to unlocking the market's potential and can guide you toward smarter trading decisions.
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Short Dolla Long BTCWe'll see
things haven't been great but it also feels like there's a lot of fear and uncertainty right now
DXY Phantom Strength.While I'm making this analysis Public, its purpose is really just a 'fun' project for myself to take a look back over time to see how (if) accurate it turns out to be.
what does the DXY yrTF 'tell' me?
1) the CCi has been making strong bullish moves (+100) away from the average price... while price has been printing LH's.
2) 2007 has been the only year (since 1980) with a CCi -100 Bear Push (& only just) & price printed a LL!
In other words, attempts of strength by the DXY results in an actual show of Weakness (LH's)?
While this has been sustained over decades, in my mind... DXY 'strength' DOES NOT RING TRUE.
3) While 2022 broke above the last LH of 16/17 (Off the HL of 2020...creating an up trend?)... yearly price has not closed above the 16/17 LH.
4) AND Price is still inside the 01/08 Bear Push Range.
REMEMBERING This is a Yearly Time Frame and therefore a VERY long term analysis, it seems to me the DXY is ultimately going to Dump.
5) Short Term However, I think a move to the yrWkZ of 2002 is still possible, if not likely. $115.00 ish.
Daily Market Outlook: BTC, DXY & Gold Analysis (#8)The market has been highly reactive following yesterday’s GDP and Unemployment Claims report. The DXY strengthened sharply, reaching a key resistance at 107.474. Previously, this level acted as a strong support and has now turned into a major resistance zone.
DXY Analysis
We need to consider multiple scenarios for the dollar index:
Most Likely Scenario: If DXY gets rejected from 107.474, we can look for short positions below 107.063, anticipating a continuation of the secondary downtrend in the daily timeframe.
Alternative Scenario: If DXY breaks above 107.474, it could continue strengthening toward 107.767, confirming that the correction is over and resuming the major uptrend.
Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis
Gold dropped below 2878.87, entering a price correction phase. Key support levels to watch:
2841.25 (Fib 50%)
2811
2790 (Strong demand zone)
Short Position Plan (1H Timeframe)
If gold finds support at 2855 (35% Fib), and later breaks it, a short entry could be considered.
If the drop continues, the next major short opportunity is at 2841.89 in the 4H timeframe.
Long Position Plan
A confirmed breakout above 2879.26 will indicate strength, making it a valid long entry point.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis
BTC has been experiencing significant downside pressure, aligning with the February 26 analysis where I highlighted the potential for a price correction within its major uptrend.
As mentioned earlier, losing 80-82K support would shift the market bias to bearish, favoring short positions. If you shorted BTC from 85K, this could be a great area to secure profits.
Currently, BTC lacks a clear structure, so I’m waiting for more confirmation before taking new positions.
What’s Next for BTC?
If BTC closes below 80K, we will need to reassess the market structure and update our strategy accordingly.
If BTC holds above this level, there is still a chance for a recovery and potential upside continuation.
However, if 80K is lost, the recovery process could take much longer than expected.
Final Thoughts
Stay patient and wait for clear market structures before entering trades. If you’re already in positions, manage them carefully based on these levels.
I’m Skeptic , and I’m grateful to be on this journey with you all. Trading is tough, but growing together makes it worthwhile. Stay profitable and see you tomorrow! 🚀💡
Lol, DXY at it again Trading is amazing because the level I said is my 2nd POI and I didnt think price will come to, is where I'm selling from now. That's why it is not good to hold a predication too strong.
Now DXY, I wanted to sell since but was waiting for 4hrs candle close.
If you enter this exact trade, I dont think anything will stop you from hitting TP.
Yagazie
BEARISH DOLLARAfter a sweep of Buyside liquidity on the dollar. I expect a reteacement back into the range to an internal range liquidity. In this case, there is a Buyside imbalance-Sell side inefficiency below.
DOLLARThe Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is a key inflation indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve. Here's how the forecasted monthly change of 0.3% (previous 0.2%) might affect the USD and broader financial markets:
Impact on USD
Higher Core PCE: If the actual figure exceeds the forecast, it could signal stronger inflationary pressures. This might lead to a stronger USD as it could prompt the Fed to consider interest rate hikes to curb inflation.
Lower Core PCE: Conversely, if the actual figure is below expectations, it might suggest easing inflationary pressures. This could lead to a weaker USD as it might reduce the likelihood of rate hikes.
Broader Market Impact
Monetary Policy Expectations: A higher-than-expected Core PCE could lead to increased expectations of tighter monetary policy, potentially boosting the USD and affecting other currencies.
Market Sentiment: The release can influence market sentiment, with higher inflation readings potentially leading to increased volatility and risk aversion.
Trade Directional Bias
Bullish for USD: If Core PCE exceeds forecasts, it might strengthen the USD against other currencies due to potential interest rate hikes.
Bearish for USD: If Core PCE is below expectations, it could weaken the USD as it might reduce the likelihood of rate hikes.
The Federal Reserve closely interprets the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index as a key measure of inflation. Here's how the Fed uses this data:
1. Inflation Targeting
Core PCE as Preferred Measure: The Fed prefers the Core PCE Price Index over other inflation measures like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) because it excludes volatile food and energy prices, providing a clearer view of underlying inflation trends.
Target: The Fed aims for a 2% annual inflation rate, using the Core PCE as a benchmark. If the Core PCE exceeds this target, it might prompt the Fed to consider tightening monetary policy to curb inflation
2. Monetary Policy Decisions
Interest Rate Adjustments: A higher-than-expected Core PCE figure could lead to increased expectations of interest rate hikes. This is because higher inflation suggests the economy might be growing too quickly, necessitating higher rates to slow it down and prevent overheating.
Economic Growth Assessment: The Core PCE helps the Fed assess the overall health of the economy. Stronger inflation can indicate robust economic activity, but if it exceeds the target, it might signal the need for policy adjustments to maintain economic stability
3. Market Expectations and Sentiment
Forward Guidance: The Fed uses Core PCE data to guide market expectations about future monetary policy. If the data suggests inflation is rising, the Fed might communicate a more hawkish stance, influencing market sentiment and potentially strengthening the USD.
Interpretation of Forecasted 0.3% Monthly Increase
Implications: A forecasted monthly increase of 0.3% in the Core PCE Price Index, up from 0.2%, could indicate a slight acceleration in inflation. If this increase is confirmed, it might lead to increased expectations of interest rate hikes, potentially supporting the USD
In summary, the Fed interprets the Core PCE Price Index as a critical indicator of underlying inflation trends, using it to inform monetary policy decisions and guide market expectations about future interest rates and economic conditions.
The DXY maintains its bullish stance, The DXY maintains its bullish stance, reinforcing dollar strength as a wedge market structure develops. With mitigation around the 105.600s, the pattern suggests a continued push toward the 109.000s. As the Gold market declines .Traders should monitor key levels for confirmation of sustained momentum follow for more insights , comment , and boost idea .
STRONG DXY Over the Next 12 - 24 months? With Donald Trumps Tariffs will we see the DXY retest all time highs $132 - $150?
DXY Correction Plays Out – Is a Reversal Next? Since the end of January, I have been anticipating a correction in the TVC:DXY , with a target around the 106 support level.
This correction has unfolded as expected, with the Dollar Index touching 106 on Monday, followed by another test and reversal yesterday.
A key observation is that since the early February spike, the DXY has been trading within a falling wedge—a pattern that often signals a potential reversal.
What’s Next?
✅ Bullish confirmation would come with a daily close above the 106.60–106.70 zone. If this happens, we could see a move up to 108.50, a key resistance level.
✅ Interim resistance sits at 107.30, which could also act as a potential target for bulls.
Trading Implications:
If the Dollar Index confirms an upside breakout, it could present selling opportunities in FX:EURUSD , FX:GBPUSD , FX:AUDUSD , and TRADENATION:NZDUSD .
USDX, DXYUSDX price is approaching the support zone of 106.45-105.36. If the price fails to break through the main support zone of 105.36, it is expected that there is a chance that the price will rebound. On the contrary, if the price can break through the level of 105.36, it will have a negative impact on the dollar.
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Potential bullish rise?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could rise to the 1st resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 107.09
1st Support: 106.64
1st Resistance: 108.04
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DXY is ready to fall againI think this sell will be swift. I analyse DXY just to cause it relates to all others. By this I mean EURUSD AND GBPUSD will buy. My only reserve is the 107.38 region but I dont think it will reach there. I've entered now. I will enter again if it reaches there. Overall, the trend has turned bearish.
I will post other charts soon.
Follow me cause my trades are market orders, so you will be able to see them on time and enter on time
DXY Holds Above 106, Currency Markets at Risk?The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains firm above the 106-mark, applying pressure on the latest currency market rebound amid escalating tariff and trade war concerns.
With the first wave of tariffs on Canada and Mexico set to take effect in early March, Trump's renewed tariff threats against the EU are further strengthening the Dollar's stance.
This has kept the EURUSD capped below 1.0530 and GBPUSD struggling at 1.27. Friday’s key inflation reports—including the German Prelim CPI and US Core PCE—are expected to introduce additional volatility risks.
🔻 Downside Scenario:
A break below 106, aligning with June 2024 highs, could expose the next support at 1.0520, coinciding with the upper boundary of the declining channel connecting lower highs from October 2023 to June 2024.
Further declines could see DXY testing 104 and 102.20, aligning with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels.
🔺 Upside Scenario:
A solid close above 107.30 could reignite bullish momentum, pushing DXY towards the 2025 high of 110, potentially derailing the currency market’s 2025 rebound.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
Is the Dollar's Rally Over? Key Levels to WatchIs the dollar trend doomed? Many say the trend is over, but the charts tell a different story. The Dollar Index remains at key support levels, with technicals pointing to a potential upside. A breakout retest around 105 could determine the next move. Will inflation, wage growth, and the Fed's stance push the dollar higher? Or will weak economic data trigger a breakdown? Watch now and decide—long or short?
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DXY Is Going Up! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 106.184.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 107.245.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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