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USDX trade ideas

DXY, bullish or bearish?Welcome back! Today i'm posting a small idea on the DXY. Usually i cover crypto but the macro is important. A weak dollar correlates with more risk being taken and a strong dollar with less risk being taken. Hence my analysis of the DXY. In the above chart a couple of things can be seen which makes the outlook hard to predict. On one side there is a bullflag on the monthly timeframe with a target of 130! On the other side, looking under we can see a bearish MACD cross and a bearish stoch RSI. On average it takes half a year to a year for a cross like this to recover. This causes me to be bearish on the dollar and bullish on risk-on assets. Thanks for reading
TVC:DXY
by Rustlingjimmies
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Bearish Outlook with Key Levels📉 Bearish Bias on U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – 4H Chart 🔹 Resistance Zone & Stop Loss 🚫 📍 Resistance: 104.200 - 104.432 🛑 Stop Loss: 104.432 (Above resistance zone) 🔸 Support Zone 🛠️ 📍 Intermediate Support: 103.300 (Possible bounce) 🔻 Target Point 🎯 📍 Target Price: 102.232 (Expected downside) 📊 Price Action Outlook: ✅ Bearish Scenario: Price rejected from resistance 🔽 Lower highs forming ⚡ Breakdown expected toward 102.232 🎯 ❌ Invalidation: If price breaks above 104.432, bearish setup fails 🚫 🔥 Conclusion: ⬇️ Sell Bias below 104.200 targeting 102.232 ❌ Cut losses if price closes above 104.432
TVC:DXYShort
by Jameshead007
Weekly CLS I KL Monthly FVG, break out is inevitableHey Traders!! Feel free to share your thoughts, charts, and questions in the comments below—I'm about fostering constructive, positive discussions! 🧩 What is CLS? CLS represents the "smart money" across all markets. It brings together the capital from the largest investment and central banks, boasting a daily volume of over 6.5 trillion. ✅By understanding how CLS operates—its specific modes and timings—you gain a powerful edge with more precise entries and well-defined targets. 🛡️Follow me and take a closer look at Models 1 and 2. These models are key to unlocking the market's potential and can guide you toward smarter trading decisions. 📍Remember, no strategy offers a 100%-win rate—trading is a journey of constant learning and improvement. While our approaches often yield strong profits, occasional setbacks are part of the process. Embrace every experience as an opportunity to refine your skills and grow. Wishing you continued success on your trading journey. May this educational post inspire you to become an even better trader! “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” David Perk ⚔
TVC:DXYLong
by David_Perk
17
DXY March 21 Analysis DXY March 21 Analysis Price parent bias is bear Price is Discount M/W/D Previous session PREMIUM and PREMIUM on the daily range NO NEWS March 20 delivery Price was in a discount. Asia small consolidation takes minor sell side rallied in London to FVG created in the dealers range and noted buy side targets. Small consolidation. NY rallies to take key buy side from March 10 taken in NY. Retraces to the daily range 50 just barley in a Premium and goes into consolidation. Note the magnet that the event horizon has been this week. As price came down to the .70 on the Monthly range price is in a consolidation whipping between the .70 and .618 with long tailed candles. This week price widen that consolidation range. March 21 delivery Logic says that price will seek the 50 and lower FVG inefficiencies to rebalance. Note what liquidity is taken and go from there. No news can be high resistance, stay sharp. Study notes Price started the week on a sell stops raid making a new low on Tuesday. And yesterday making a higher high coming into the bottom part of HTF FVG. My Model Factors Price will have to do the following for me to trade *session liquidity taken *macro time only *first presented FVG *4 candle pattern *hour analysis down to 1 min every 15 minutes *every hour mark out what price has done Stay open to build narrative once Asia opens. Stay open to reading price delivery
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
2
Breakout on the DXY - Is the DXY going higher?What is the DXY? The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) measures the strength of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies. A rising DXY indicates a strengthening of the U.S. dollar. This can have significant effects on cryptocurrencies, particularly in the short- and medium-term. Here are some of the key impacts: What does an increase in the DXY mean for crypto? Negative Impact on Crypto Prices: As the dollar strengthens (rising DXY), the relative value of other assets, including cryptocurrencies, can decline. Many cryptocurrencies are priced in U.S. dollars, so when the dollar strengthens, the same amount of dollars may buy fewer crypto assets, leading to price declines for cryptocurrencies. Safe-Haven Movement: When investors flock to the U.S. dollar due to its rising strength, they may move capital out of riskier assets like crypto and into the dollar or U.S. Treasury bonds, which are seen as safer. This can cause a decrease in demand for cryptocurrencies. What can we conclude from the 4-hour DXY chart? The DXY experienced a rapid decrease this month, resulting in a drop from 108 to 103. However, after this sharp decline, the price has shown some bullish signs. First: The price action kept making lower lows while the RSI made higher lows, resulting in a bullish divergence. Second: The price action formed a specific pattern commonly found at the end of a downtrend. This pattern shows that the price is making small lower lows and lower highs, suggesting market exhaustion and a possible upside move toward the resistance zone. The resistance zone aligns with the golden pocket Fibonacci level, indicating it could be a strong rejection level. It is highly probable that the DXY could make an upside move to the resistance zone and golden pocket after breaking this bullish chart pattern. What do we see on the daily timeframe? The price dropped rapidly from 108 to the support zone at 103. After consolidating at this level, the price made a slightly lower low, while the RSI made a higher low. This indicates a bullish divergence on the daily timeframe. Before this drop, the DXY formed a typical bearish chart pattern known as Head and Shoulders (H&S). The neckline of the pattern coincides with the resistance zone on the 4-hour timeframe and the golden pocket. This suggests that it may be a difficult level to break. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment! Lets chat in the comment section. See you there :)
TVC:DXYLong
by Youriverse
14
DXY: Starting a new Channel Up rally into Summer.The U.S. Dollar Index is near the oversold zone on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.232, MACD = -1.040, ADX = 33.922) having reached the bottom of the 9 month Channel Up. The 1D RSI was oversold last week but is seen rebounding. This is exactly the kind of formation we had on the previous bottom of the Channel Up as well as the December 28th 2023 low.. The selling sequences that led to those lose have been almost the same as today's (-6.32% and -5.74%). The last Channel Up bullish wave reached exactly the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. Consequently we can go long here with an acceptable risk, targeting the top of the Channel Up (TP = 113.000). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DXYLong
by InvestingScope
Weekly CLS I KL FVG , Model 1 , LQ taken Hey Traders!! Feel free to share your thoughts, charts, and questions in the comments below—I'm about fostering constructive, positive discussions! 🧩 What is CLS? CLS represents the "smart money" across all markets. It brings together the capital from the largest investment and central banks, boasting a daily volume of over 6.5 trillion. ✅By understanding how CLS operates—its specific modes and timings—you gain a powerful edge with more precise entries and well-defined targets. 🛡️Follow me and take a closer look at Models 1 and 2. These models are key to unlocking the market's potential and can guide you toward smarter trading decisions. 📍Remember, no strategy offers a 100%-win rate—trading is a journey of constant learning and improvement. While our approaches often yield strong profits, occasional setbacks are part of the process. Embrace every experience as an opportunity to refine your skills and grow. Wishing you continued success on your trading journey. May this educational post inspire you to become an even better trader! “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” David Perk ⚔
TVC:DXYLong
by David_Perk
9
Further Underperformance for the US Dollar Index? Down nearly 4.0% this month, the US Dollar Index demonstrates scope to navigate deeper waters on the monthly chart towards the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) at 101.72. A similar vibe is evident on the daily chart. Following a test of support-turned-resistance at 103.94, a possible bearish scenario could unfold if price breaches the lower edge of the current descending triangle pattern (103.22/104.09). If a breakout lower materialises, follow-through downside could see support at 101.92 make an entrance (set just north of the 50-month SMA).
TVC:DXYShort
by FPMarkets
DXY March 20 Analysis DXY March 20 Analysis Price parent bias is bear Price is Discount M/W/D Previous session DISCOUNT and DISCOUNT on the daily range new 8:30 March 19 delivery Price was in a discount after consolidation rallied in London to session 50 as I suspected and rallied to the daily range 50. Retraced with a small consolidation coming into NY. 7 macro judus swing small consolidation to reverse and rally to buy stops target and FVG. FOMC price retraced a discount on the .79 DR and consolidated. Stop hunt raid? Note how prices swing was from .79 to .79 on the daily range. March 20 delivery Its likely after the raid on buy stops and that Price is now rebalancing a HTF FVG that we could see price continue to seek lower prices. It could show signs of wanting to come to the 50 previous session range so be open to what the chart prints. My Model Factors Price will have to do the following for me to trade *session liquidity taken *macro time only *first presented FVG *4 candle pattern *hour analysis down to 1 min every 15 minutes *every hour mark out what price has done Stay open to build narrative once Asia opens. Stay open to reading price delivery
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
USD Gains Ground as Markets Await the FOMC and New ProjectionsThe U.S. dollar is regaining ground ahead of the much-anticipated second monetary policy decision of the year by the Federal Reserve, after having been under pressure during the first half of the week. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a 0.4% gain, positioning itself as the strongest currency among major Forex market pairs on this key trading day. Alongside the greenback’s strength, U.S. equity markets are also trading in positive territory, reflecting relative optimism ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. The federal funds rate, currently within a 4.25% to 4.50% range, is widely expected to remain unchanged, with interest rate futures assigning a 99% probability to this outcome. However, while the rate decision is largely priced in, market attention will shift toward the Fed’s new economic projections, and most importantly, to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. I personally anticipate significant adjustments in the Fed’s estimates, which could trigger notable market reactions. Specifically, I expect the Federal Reserve to lower its 2025 economic growth projections from the 2.1% forecasted last December, in response to a more challenging economic environment, where we have seen a weaker U.S. consumer and the impact of recent tariff measures introduced by the Trump administration. Additionally, inflation projections will be a key focus, especially as we have seen a derailment of long-term inflation expectations, a crucial factor in the inflation debate, which have now reached their highest level since 1993. The so-called "dot plot" will likely indicate two rate cuts projected for this year, reflecting a slightly less dovish stance compared to the three cuts currently priced in by financial markets. This discrepancy could drive volatility in both the dollar and equities if market sentiment shifts to accommodate this less accommodative outlook. The post-decision press conference will be, in my view, the most critical moment of the day. Jerome Powell will face tough questions regarding the Fed’s stance on the growing risk of an economic recession, exacerbated by uncertainty over the effectiveness of the White House’s new trade and fiscal policies. It will be crucial to hear how Powell balances an inflation-focused narrative with the surge in inflation expectations, a key factor for future monetary policy decisions. Powell is likely to adopt a cautious approach, avoiding any firm commitments on the future direction of monetary policy, aiming to retain maximum flexibility in an uncertain economic environment. Finally, it wouldn’t be surprising if the term "stagflation" takes center stage in journalists’ questions, given the current backdrop of persistent inflationary pressures combined with increasing signs of economic slowdown. In summary, while interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, the Fed’s statements and projections will be critical in shaping the future direction of financial markets and the Federal Reserve’s monetary stance in this challenging economic environment.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
At 1:00 AM tomorrow, GMT +7, what will the FED say?At 1:00 AM tomorrow, GMT +7, what will the FED say? If the FED announces that they will keep interest rates unchanged, maintaining the 103.5 level as a bottom, DXY will likely increase again in the next few days. However, if the FED decides to raise interest rates, XAU will plunge, and BTC will rise back to the $100,000 mark. But... regardless, after DXY's upcoming rise following the D1 cycle, there will be another drop. It's uncertain how fast DXY will move, but if it moves quickly, DXY could decline by early April, with XAU rising, and BTC likely dropping to the 66k-72k range.
TVC:DXYLong
by rainbow_sniper
3