US Dollar Index - 4h Chart (CAPITALCOM)4-hour chart of the US Dollar Index (DXY) from CAPITALCOM shows the index's recent price movements. The current value is 96.955, with a slight increase of 0.054 (+0.06%). Key levels include a support at 96.413 and resistance at 97.554. The chart highlights buy signals at 97.012 and sell signals at 96.958 and 96.955, with a notable downward trend breaking below a support zone around 97.150.
USDX trade ideas
DXY – The Trap Is Set. The Drop Is Coming.Wave structure complete.
Retail thinks we’re going up. I know where it’s really going.
This is GreenFire Execution, not prediction.
🧠 Final liquidity hunt possibly toward 98.76 or even 101.40, then lights out.
Targeting the big liquidity pocket at 95.215
That’s where legends buy while the crowd panics.
📐 Elliott Wave | Wedge Mastery | Market Psychology
If you understand this chart — you don’t need signals. You need silence and execution.
#DXYSetup | #Wave5Ready | #SmartMoney | #ForexMillionaire | #TradingViewElite
DXY weekly outlookDXY Weekly Outlook
This week, I’m watching to see if the dollar continues its bearish trend or breaks above the current supply zone. We've already seen a strong reaction from the 8hr supply, but price could still tap into the 1hr supply before making its next move.
If price drops from here, I’ll be looking at the 2hr demand zone below for a possible bullish reaction. If DXY pushes up from that zone, pairs like EU and GU could drop — which lines up with my overall short bias on those.
Gold may not always move in sync with the dollar, but DXY still gives a good idea of market sentiment.
Let’s see how it plays out and stay reactive.
IS A HIGHER LOW SECURED ON THE DXY? LET'S FIND OUTIn this weekend analysis, I am still paying attention to the higher time frame downtrend on the dollar index while acknowledging the higher low support on the daily chart forming an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. On the 4H and lower timeframes we have a strong ceiling made up of the 200SMA and 50SMA resistance level and need to break through from the 20SMA Line in the sand support. This weeks trade plan and thesis is for price to hold above the 20 SMA on the 4H timeframe expecting a potential dip to the zone of 97.128 (liquidity zone) and then bounce up to a weekly target of 97.7. This Thesis is INVALIDATED if a candle opens and closes below 97.015. I wish everyone a great trading week. Thank for supporting my publications and trade ideas. Cheers!!!
DXY Bearish Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DXY is trading in a strong
Downtrend and the index
Made a bearish breakout
Out of the bearish flag pattern
So we are bearish biased
And we will be expecting
A further bearish move down
Sell!
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
US Dollar Index (DXY) – 4H Chart AnalysisUS Dollar Index (DXY) – 4H Chart Analysis
**Current Trend:** Bearish
Price trades below EMAs, Ichimoku Cloud, and within a bearish channel.
#**Bearish Scenario (Favorable)**
* **Conditions:**
* Price remains below EMA 7 & 21
* Stays under Ichimoku Cloud and 96.812 resistance (R1)
* Lower lows forming, bearish momentum increasing
* **Confirmation:**
Break below **96.37 (blue zone)**
* **Target:**
* TP1: 96.00
* TP2: 95.60 (next weak support)
**Bullish Scenario (Reversal)**
* **Conditions:**
* Price must break above **96.81 (EMA 7 + resistance)**
* Break above **R1 → 96.90**, and then above **R2 → 97.14–97.19**
* Bullish candles close above the Ichimoku cloud
* **Confirmation:**
Break and retest of **97.20**
* **Target:**
* TP1: 97.39
* TP2: 97.58 (key structure)
* TP3: 98.00 (major resistance)
**Bias:** Bearish unless DXY breaks above **97.20** with strong volume and bullish structure.
DXY: Strong Bullish Sentiment! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding above a key level of 96.722 So a bullish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next high. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
DXY index moving towards down in higher timeframeAs you can see DXY index is moving inside channel and now its time for second swing failure to go down.Then channel movement will finish and it will breakout towards upward so i recomand trade USD pairs accordingly.This is my analysis not a financial advice so trade according your risk management.
US Dollar Index 4-hour time frame, showcasing the US Dollar Index's performance over this period.
- The index is currently at 97.385, with a decrease of 0.636 (-0.65%) from its previous value.
- A red box indicates a "SELL" signal at 97.385, while a blue box suggests a "BUY" signal at 97.439.
- The chart includes various technical indicators, such as moving averages and relative strength index (RSI), to help traders analyze market trends.
Bearish drop off 50% Fibonacci resistance?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 99..15
1st Support: 96.54
1st Resistance: 100.57
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DXY Eyes Breakout – Dollar Strength Gaining GroundThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is testing its 50-day moving average on the daily chart, with bulls eyeing a potential breakout. A move above 98.75 could confirm a short-term trend reversal and open the path for further gains.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data continues to support the greenback. Recent inflation prints, job market resilience, and solid retail spending have pushed back expectations for imminent Fed rate cuts. This shift in rate outlook provides fundamental support for the dollar.
In addition, strong U.S. corporate earnings are bolstering equity markets, attracting capital flows into U.S. assets and indirectly supporting dollar demand. Rising Treasury yields, especially on the short end, also offer more attractive returns for dollar-based investments.
Geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions in Asia and Europe are prompting a rotation into the dollar as a safe-haven currency.
Meanwhile, some emerging market currencies are under pressure, increasing global demand for dollar liquidity.
Technically, a close above 98.75 could confirm bullish momentum, with 99.80 as the next upside target. As long as macro and risk dynamics lean in the dollar’s favor, DXY may continue its rebound from recent lows.
USD Snapback - Long-Term Trendline Back in-PlayThe trendline that originated in 2001 and connected to the 2020 high came in to hold the lows in July of 2023, and then again on Easter Monday. That level also held as support in June albeit temporarily, as bears grinded a sell-off into the Q2 close.
In early-Q3 trade, that trendline was resistance on a few different occasions, until buyers could eventually take it out. And then last week, on the heels of Trump's threat to fire Jerome Powell, price hurriedly pulled back until, eventually, support arrived via that same trendline projection, which is shown in black on the chart.
Now that trendline is back in-play as a test of today's lows. Given the persistent failure from USD bulls to fire anything more than a pullback, combined with the very clear push for USD-weakness from the current administration, it can be difficult to muster a bullish fundamental bias. But - this move had become very one-sided with that sell-off in the first-half of the year so the way that buyers respond to these support tests will be key for whether or not the currency can finally show a reversal theme for more than a couple of weeks. - js
USD Weakness Ahead (3-Month Outlook)EUR/USD: Breaking 1.0850, next target 1.1000
GBP/USD: Cleared 1.2750, heading toward 1.2950
AUD/USD: Rebounded from 0.6650, potential 0.6850
NZD/USD: Above 0.6150, could reach 0.6300
Key Drivers:
1. Fed likely cutting rates before ECB/BoE/RBNZ
2. Commodity recovery (helps AUD/NZD)
3. Political risks weighing on USD
Market Mood:
- Traders reducing long USD positions
- AUD/NZD shorts getting squeezed
Risks:
US inflation surprises upside
Geopolitical shocks boost USD safe-haven demand
Sasha Charkhchian
Breakout of the channelAfter the DXY broke out of the channel, it formed a range.
We can see a yellow trendline where the price is moving exactly along it.
If this trendline breaks to the downside, we can take a short position targeting the bottom of the channel.
Otherwise, it would mean the trend reversal in DXY is confirmed.
DXY SHORT?
## 📉 **DXY Bearish Setup for 2025 – Fed Cuts, Fiscal Strain, Technical Breakdown**
### 🧠 Thesis
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is poised to remain under pressure through the rest of 2025 due to macro, policy, and technical headwinds. With the Fed preparing for multiple rate cuts, rising fiscal imbalances, and a strong global diversification away from USD, the broader trend points **downward**.
---
### 🔍 Fundamentals Driving USD Weakness
* **Federal Reserve Pivot**: 2–3 rate cuts expected in 2025 → erodes USD yield advantage.
* **Surging U.S. Deficits**: Debt-to-GDP nearing 130%, undermining investor confidence.
* **De-dollarization Trend**: Central banks diversifying reserves (yuan, gold, euro).
* **Political Noise**: Tariff risk + weak-dollar narrative from Trump camp adds pressure.
---
### 📊 Technical Outlook (1D/1W Charts)
* DXY is trading below **9/20/50 EMA**.
* RSI \~43 with hidden bearish divergence.
* Clear **descending channel** since mid-2024.
* Key **support zone: 97.90 – 96.40**.
* Below 97.90 opens path toward 96.00–95.00.
---
### 🛠️ Trade Setup
| Type | Short (swing/position) |
| -------- | ---------------------- |
| Entry | Break below 98.00 |
| Target 1 | 96.40 |
| Target 2 | 95.00 |
| SL | Above 99.50 |
| R\:R | \~2.5:1 |
---
### ⚠️ Risks
* Surprise inflation → Fed pauses cuts
* Safe haven bid from geopolitical shocks
* Strong upside breakout >101.00 = trend invalidation
---
### 💬 Final Note
As long as DXY remains below 99.50, rallies are selling opportunities. Watch the 97.90–98.00 level — a confirmed breakdown could mark a fresh leg lower toward 95.00 by year-end.
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### 🏷️ Tags
`#DXY` `#USD` `#DollarIndex` `#Forex` `#Macro` `#Bearish` `#TradingSetup` `#ShortUSD`
---
Fundamentals Support Dollar’s Potential Trend ReversalThe dollar appears to be reversing its direction on the 4-hour timeframe. The trendline has been broken and retested twice, but the dollar has held above it, signaling a potential shift in momentum.
Despite intense pressure from the White House on the Federal Reserve, the data is likely to prevent the Fed from cutting rates at the upcoming meeting and possibly at the one after that. A potential rate cut in September will largely depend on incoming inflation and labor market data.
The inflation impact of tariffs became more visible in the latest CPI report, but the effect is still relatively modest. This aligns with our theory that tariff-driven inflation will build gradually and persist over a longer period, rather than cause an immediate spike.
Meanwhile, the labor market has not shown clear signs of rapid weakening, so there is no strong case for a rate cut from that side either. The Financial Conditions Index also indicates that monetary policy remains on the accommodative side. Bloomberg financial conditions index is at highest level since March.
As markets increasingly recognize that no rate cuts are likely in the near term, and with the August 1 tariff deadline approaching amid potential rising risks of trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU, the dollar may gain further support. The U.S.–EU bond market spread also does not favor a stronger euro at the moment, adding to the dollar's upside potential.
In the short term, 98.10 and 98.53 are immediate support and resistance levels. If the dollar breaks above 98.53 again, upward momentum may strengthen and open the path toward the 100 level.