DXY 03/03/2025Weekly Bias looking for shorts. Maybe see some support from this Daily BISI to push further into that Volume imbalance with the daily mitigation block. Then a sell off into Monthly BISI
USDX trade ideas
DXY Shorts March 2025DXY's Trump rally seems to have run out of juice with Tarif wars ad uncertainty. Looking major sellside to be taken in the future. At the moment favouring a retracement into Equilibrium of range into monthly buyside-imbalance sellside-inefficiency. Latets CoT Report shows a start to the selling from non-commercial entities.
BULLISH ON DXYLooking for a deep retracement as we expect high impact news to pump usd/dollar index prices up
possibility of uptrendIt is expected that after some fluctuation, the upward trend will continue and will advance to the specified resistance levels.
Otherwise, the correction trend will continue to the support range.
ECB rate cut and NFPs await the DXYThe DXY dropped to fresh yearly lows at 106.13 since my previous idea which does not bode well for my string of ideas calling for the DXY to break above 110.16. The DXY however managed to climb back above the blue support range between 107.12 and 107.50 at the back end of last week off the back of a stronger than expected durable goods orders m-o-m print of 3.1% while the 4Q2024 GDP print and the m-o-m Core PCE price index landed in line with expectations at 2.3% and 0.3%, respectively.
The headlining events for this week is the ECB interest rate meeting and the NFPs for February. Market expectations are for the ECB to cut rates from 2.9% to 2.65%. The ECB has held a more dovish stance than the Fed since the rate cutting cycle began and if it’s more of the same on Thursday, I expect the DXY to find strong footing which will allow it to re-test the 50-day MA at 107.98. Most of the focus will however be on the US non-farm payroll print for February.
The NFPs print for January came in slightly lower than expected and another weak print on Friday will have investors question the validity of Powell’s statement that the US economy is strong and that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates, which I expect will be dollar negative. A strong print however will allow the DXY to hold levels above the 50-day MA and test levels closer to the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 108.97.
FIBS TREND EXTENTIONS RULES:
-If price break Point 2, 4, 6, or 8 cancel the setup
-Price needs to break Point 1, 3, 5, or 7 to confirm the setup
When price reach the 100FE(BLUE BOX) it normally does a pullback/retest or reversal
The market can Truncate(fall short)
DXYDXY Index
This Analysis is based on these Factors :
1 Support / Resistance
2 Falling Wedge
3 Elliot Waves
4 RSI - Divergence
5 Change of Characteristics
DXY Will Grow! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
DXY is trading in an uptrend
And the index is already making
A bullish rebound from the
Rising support line so we are
Bullish biased and we will be
Expecting a further bullish
Reaction and move up
Buy!
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DXYWe had an impulsive breakout and a continuation pattern in aa form of an expanding flag. price is also at a third touch on the expanding flag which is a great area to take sells on DXY.
DXYDXY Analysis:
- Break of structure to the Upside after taking out sellside Liquidity.
- Price Displaced higher, while we are expecting it to retrace into a discount area (0.618 fib)
- This could be a potential buying opportunity aiming for range high.
DXY 1W IdeaPotential for a bullish pullback on the NZDCAD H2 which could lead to a price movement towards the resistance level at 114.000. BUY levels from 104.000
Dollar IndexWe are seeing Dollar strength this week, Seasonality and structure are playing in the favour of bulls this week.
new prediction for USDXSo hello back guys this is my new prediction about usdx and based on that we gonna have some chart on FX pairs for the next week
DXY|LONGDXY long setup |WEEKLY ANALYSIS|
The price in a bullish channel and we have h and sh pattern for break out the bearish trend line..
DXY|LONG SETUPHello, I hope you have a great week ahead. This is my outlook for the Dollar Index, and please feel free to leave your comments and share your own perspective with me.
Initially, on the lower timeframes, I expect a rise to the 108.570 level and a potential breakout into this resistance zone. Afterward, I anticipate a drop to 105.888, which could mark the start of a sharp upward trend from this level. This is just my analysis, not a signal.
BULLISH forecast on DXYWeekly chart is showing a strong bullish candle, anticipating continuation move.
4h showing potential internal range liquidity to external range liquidity move
DXY Is Going Up! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 107.566.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 108.420 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
DXY Trading Journal March 2 Previous week in reviewDXY Trading Journal
March 2 Previous week in review
Price had a up closed candle on the weekly taking out previous weeks buy/sell stops.
Monday price takes out previous weeks sell stops and from Dec and closes with a up closed candle.
Tuesday Price raliies to take the buy stops from Monday and aggressively lowers.
Wednesday opens to take Tuesdays lows and then rallies to the high side and creates equal lows.
Thursday opens with a volume unbalance and takes buy stops and rebalances the FVG created from the previous Thursday, i also note a large range day.
Friday Price energetically rallies to take the equal highs with the body of the candle coming to the CE of the SIBI its rebalancing.
Price started the week in a discount on the .79 breaking lower at the start of the week to then seek higher prices.
DXY to Retest $108 - Slight Pain May Lay AheadDXY fractal from 2017 is playing out nicely.
Looks like it will retest $108 mid-March and break $106 in early April (hopefully before).
This lines up perfectly with the Global M2 (12-Week Lead) liquidity injection.
DXY BUY SETUPPrice is coming off an overall monthly retest with a DAILY choch and a DAILY choch retest to continue up towards 114 price point.
DXY update#DXY made a wedge at the end of its pattern this can make a rise as we have a bearish pettern in EURUSD too i think that this rising can go to the fibo level 62% anyway REMEMBER THAT THE WHOLE PATTERN IS STILL BEARISH !
DXY update#DXY made a rise as i told you before the descending wedge made a price rise and we have 2 levels as the target based on fibo levels
Short AUDUSD The Perfect Storm: Stagflation, GeopoliticsIn a world increasingly defined by geopolitical volatility and economic uncertainty, a perfect storm is brewing, casting a long shadow over the Australian dollar. The confluence of persistent stagflationary pressures, escalating trade tensions, and a resurgent U.S. dollar is creating a formidable headwind for the AUDUSD pair. This article delves into the intricate web of factors driving this bearish sentiment, offering a comprehensive analysis for macro traders and financial viewers seeking clarity amidst market turbulence.
The Stagflationary Grip: A Global Economic Quagmire
The global economic landscape is ensnared in a precarious dance between "sticky" inflation and a palpable slowdown. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) remains stubbornly elevated, while Producer Price Index (PPI) figures signal continued upward pressure on consumer prices. This persistent inflation, coupled with a weakening housing market, declining consumer confidence, and a sharp contraction in global trade activity (as evidenced by the plummeting Shanghai and China Containerized Freight Indices), paints a stark picture of a "Stagflationary Weakness."
www.census.gov
The Federal Reserve finds itself trapped between a rock and a hard place, grappling with the unenviable task of taming inflation while averting a looming recession. Policy missteps are increasingly probable, further amplifying market anxieties.
Geopolitical Fault Lines and Trade Wars: Fueling the Fire
Adding to the economic woes are escalating geopolitical tensions and trade disputes. The contentious US-Ukraine situation, heightened US-China strategic competition (including technology decoupling and potential military tensions in the South China Sea), and the ever-present threat of cyberattacks are creating an environment of heightened risk aversion.
President Trump's aggressive tariff policies, targeting Canada, Mexico, and China, have ignited fears of retaliatory measures and further disruptions to global trade flows. The market's reaction has been swift and decisive, with the S&P 500 experiencing consecutive weekly declines, reflecting growing investor unease.
The AUDUSD Under Siege: A Technical and Fundamental Breakdown
Against this backdrop, the AUDUSD pair is experiencing a decisive bearish breakdown. The U.S. dollar (DXY), fueled by its safe-haven appeal and the prevailing risk-off sentiment, is exhibiting robust strength, targeting 109.900. This dollar resurgence is exerting significant downward pressure on the risk-sensitive Australian dollar.
Gaining Traction Amidst Global Uncertainty
The AUDUSD has decisively breached the critical 0.64000 level, signaling a clear shift in market sentiment. While rising commodity prices, particularly in energy, have historically provided support for the AUD, the current environment is unique. Geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainties are overshadowing the positive impact of rising commodity prices.
Technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), confirm the bearish momentum. The 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages are all trending downwards, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Key Support Zone and Outlook:
We have identified a key support zone between 0.61435 and 0.60838. This zone represents a potential area of consolidation or a temporary pause in the downtrend. However, given the strong bearish momentum and the prevailing fundamental factors, we anticipate a continued downward trajectory.
Impact of Strong Dollar and Risk Aversion"
Traders should closely monitor the DXY and global risk sentiment for further confirmation of the bearish trend. Any sustained break of the 0.64000 level would confirm the current outlook.
The AUDUSD pair is currently navigating a perfect storm of stagflationary pressures, geopolitical risks, and a resurgent U.S. dollar. This confluence of factors has created a compelling bearish outlook, with technical indicators and fundamental analysis aligning to support continued downward momentum.
In this environment, vigilance and a deep understanding of the global macroeconomic landscape are paramount. Traders must remain attuned to the evolving geopolitical and economic narratives, adapting their strategies to navigate the turbulent waters of the current market. FX:AUDUSD CAPITALCOM:DXY
