DXY Analysis & ConsiderationsOverall Trend & Context:
Long-Term Uptrend: The DXY exhibits a clear uptrend from late 2023, indicating persistent USD strength.
Key Levels:
Resistance Zone (109.50 - 110.00): This zone has proven a challenge for the DXY to break decisively. A sustained break above this level is crucial for further upside.
Support Zone (107.00 - 108.00): This zone has provided support during pullbacks.
EMAs (25, 50, 100, 200 - 4-Hour Chart): The DXY is trading above all EMAs, a bullish sign. The 25 EMA is acting as dynamic support, and a bullish crossover (25 above 50) has occurred.
Potential Scenarios & Probabilities:
Bullish Breakout (High Probability) : The bullish EMA alignment favor an upside breakout above 110.00. Increased volume would confirm this scenario.
Pullback to Support/EMAs (Medium Probability) : A pullback towards the support line or the 25 EMA (around 108.80 - 109.00) is plausible, especially given the overbought RSI. This could offer a good long entry opportunity.
Breakdown Below Support (Low - Medium Probability) : A break below the support line and the EMAs would weaken the bullish outlook and could lead to a deeper correction.
Trading Considerations:
xxxUSD pairs - If the dollar goes up we should look for short positions.
USDxxx pairs - If Dollar goes up we can look for long positions.
A pullback to the support zones or the 25 EMA could offer a lower-risk long entry, provided these levels hold and there is sufficient demand on the USDxxx pair you're trading. (technicals should always be prioritized)
Consider placing stop-loss orders below key support/demand levels to manage risk.
Look for increased volume during breakouts or bounces off support to strengthen signals.
Watch for bearish divergence on the RSI as a potential bearish warning sign on the DXY.
Geopolitical Factors:
De-dollarization Efforts: Some countries are exploring alternatives to the US dollar for trade and reserves. While this is a long-term trend, any significant announcements or actions could impact the dollar's value.
Sanctions and Trade Policies: US sanctions and trade policies can influence the dollar's strength, particularly against the currencies of targeted countries. The US imposed tariffs are creating ripples right now.
Let's quickly look at what 'tariffs' are -
By now you should all know about the US imposed tariffs on several major trading partners including China, Canada and Mexico (and that they've retaliated with their own tariffs on US goods).
What does this all mean?
In the US any goods that are imported from Canada for example, will now cost more to the general public. To put it simply, the US is now charging a "handlers fee" and that will increase the overall price.
These tariffs are intended to encourage these countries to change their trade practices.
The tariffs have disrupted global supply chains, increased costs for businesses, and created uncertainty.
Make no mistake, this is without a doubt, a trade war.
Potential Impacts on the US Dollar:
Positive Impact:
Safe-haven demand: Increased global economic uncertainty due to the trade war could drive investors towards the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, increasing demand and its value. People will flock to the take no s#it protocols implemented by the Trump administration.
Reduced imports: If tariffs lead to a significant decrease in US imports, there could be less demand for foreign currencies to purchase those imports, indirectly increasing demand for USD. This means that trade conducted by the US will increase the overall Dollar output - thus making it seem more valuable. (If we assume the Trump administration is playing petty games, we're badly misinformed, we should assume that these are well calculated risks)
Negative Impact:
Reduced US exports: Tariffs can make US goods less competitive, leading to a decrease in exports. This can reduce foreign demand for USD, as fewer foreign buyers need dollars to purchase US goods.
Economic slowdown: The trade war could negatively impact economic growth in the US and globally. A slowdown in the US economy could make the dollar less attractive to investors.
Retaliatory tariffs: If other countries retaliate with their own tariffs on US goods, it can further dampen US exports and reduce demand for the dollar.
Trade Wars and Uncertainty:
The uncertainty and potential for escalation associated with trade wars can negatively impact investor confidence and lead to a flight to safety. While the USD is often seen as a safe haven, extreme uncertainty could lead investors to seek other safe-haven assets or reduce their overall exposure to USD (Right now Gold is something you should be looking into as a trader and investor).
Final Notes:
The technical picture is strong and does favour a breakout. But the geopolitical risks reduce the probability. Be prepared for fundamentals to override technicals in the short term.
Given the heightened risks, traders should be cautious and wait for clear confirmation signals before taking positions.
Closely follow news related to the debt ceiling, economic data, and geopolitical events.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
USDX trade ideas
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Does The Market OVERREACT?
It looks like Dollar Index is preparing for a retracement
after a very bullish market opening.
As a clear sign of strength of the sellers, I see
a head and shoulders pattern on an hourly
and a breakout of its neckline.
The market may drop at least to 108.6
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
DXY Will Move Higher! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 108.497.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 109.050 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
1Q2025 update pre-January NFPsThis idea is a follow up on my previous DXY idea attached below. I predicted the DXY to pullback at the start of the year and for the support level between 106.9 and 107.4 to hold its ground upon this pullback.
The 50-day MA currently at 107.8 is now the main support level to hold and a failed break below this level will be an early indication of another 5-wave impulse higher towards the September 2022 high at 114.8 in the 1Q2025.
The announcement over the weekend of Trumps 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada plus the 10% import levies imposed on China has sent the DXY straight up towards the current yearly high at 110.1 in the early morning trade which in dollar positive.
In terms of US treasuries and the US government's debt burden, President Trump has to somehow create demand for the US treasuries and a persistent inflation environment forces investors to demand a higher yield on their treasuries. I believe Trump will create this US treasury demand by sucking dollars back into the US via his trade tariffs and suspension of foreign aid to other countries (essentially allowing the dollar milkshake theory to playout). The dollar may however get too strong for Trump's likening since a stronger dollar makes goods from the US more expensive while making foreign goods cheaper for the US which will only further exacerbate the US trade deficit.
Trump essentially needs a weaker dollar to turn the US into an exporting manufacturing country, "making America great again" but I see the effect of his policies being dollar positive?
Perhaps Trump will negotiate a Plaza accord 2.0 to systematically devalue the dollar...
DXY Dive Incoming? Watch the Liquidity Zones!From the higher timeframe perspective, DXY is currently hovering within a key monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG), marked in red. This zone serves as a critical point of interest and could dictate the next directional bias for the dollar.
Key Observations:
Current FVG Zone:
-Price is consolidating within the monthly FVG. A close below this zone would provide stronger confirmation of a bearish move targeting lower liquidity levels.
Bearish Bias:
-The recent price action indicates weakness as sellside liquidity (SSL) is beginning to show signs of attraction.
-The presence of significant sellside liquidity targets below, including:
-105.411 (Weekly SSL - Sweep)
-103.370 (Weekly SSL - Next Zone)
-100.215 (Major Daily SSL Zone)
Messy Market Conditions:
-Due to fluctuating macroeconomic factors, including USD news events, we may observe temporary rallies or retracements. However, these are likely to form lower highs before continuing the descent.
Confirmation Levels:
-Bearish Confirmation: A daily or weekly close below the monthly FVG would solidify the bearish case, signaling that sellside liquidity at 105.411 and lower levels are likely next.
-Bullish Risk: If the current FVG holds as support and price pushes higher, we could see an attempt to retest higher zones (e.g., 109.535) before resuming downside momentum.
Conclusion:
The expectation is for DXY to drop towards sellside liquidity levels at 105.411, 103.370, and potentially as low as 100.215. However, traders should await a clean confirmation (such as a close below the monthly FVG) to validate the move.
DYOR (Do Your Own Research) and trade safely amidst potential market volatility!
Let me know if you'd like any refinements!
Potential bullish rise?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 107.49
1st Support 106.47
1st Resistance: 109.64
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY Jan30 Back testing AnalysisDXY
Jan30 Back testing Analysis
Asia Price is in a Premium. At 1 macro drops to the 50 level taking out sell side liquidity.
London Price still running to the bottom of a FVG reacts and swings up to the MOG and CE of the higher FVG seeking a key level of buys side.
Price gravitates around the buy side building orders I suspect for the ND at 8:30.
NY delivering to a Premium. Price dropped to the MOG and the 50 level and rallies higher. Note Price just touches the event horizon.
At 10 macro-AKA silver bullet, Price smashes down seeking the previous days FVG to rebalance. Note the bodies of the candle respect the FVG.
12 macro Price aggressively retraces rebalancing efficiently delivered Price. Price seeks another equal high by 4pm.
Note the reactions on the 50 levels touches and goes higher. Price did come down to a discount however immediate reaction. Tipping its hand that the DXY parent bias is bullish?
DXY anlysis 1W - US DOLLAR INDEX 📊 DXY Analysis - US Dollar Index
🔹 Respecting the Fibonacci Golden Zone
The DXY has reacted to the Fibonacci golden zone, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish trend.
🔹 Weekly Candle Closed Bullish
This week's candle closed bullish, reinforcing the possibility of further upside momentum.
🔹 Expectations
If the bullish momentum continues, the next target levels could be key resistance areas. It's advisable to wait for additional confirmations before making any trading decisions.
💡 What do you think about this analysis? Do you agree with the bullish scenario, or do you expect a reversal? Share your thoughts in the comments! 🚀📈
US DOLLAR INDEX : DXY READY TO FLY !! great opportunity !- The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing strong signs of bullish momentum as it bounces off key support levels and begins to break through short-term resistance.
- I draw a bars pattern to show you exactly how DXY will balance next weeks.
The strategie that i used is very unique, just follow bars pattern up and down.
- Fundamental Drivers: Positive US economic data and expectations of potential Fed rate hikes support the bullish outlook for the USD, adding confidence to the trade.
- This setup offers a great opportunity to catch the next leg of the US Dollar’s potential rally. Happy trading! 📈
Weekly FOREX Forecast Feb 3 - 7th.This is an outlook for the week of Feb 3 - 7th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
JPY, USDJPY
The USD Index is reacting to the Monthly and Weekly Supply Zone. The week before last was an aggressive bearish candle, followed by last week retracement. Although the week ended with a bullish close, it inside Supply. We could see price resume the bearish reaction to the HTF Supply this week. This could mean the majors may see bullish weeks against the USD.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
DXY Back in Uptrend – Bullish Outlook on USD PairsThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has regained its bullish momentum, confirming a return to the uptrend on the daily timeframe. Key technical indicators signal strong upward potential, reinforcing a favorable outlook for USD strength in the coming sessions.
A sustained rally in the dollar is likely to exert downward pressure on gold prices (XAUUSD) and impact USD-based currency pairs. Given the prevailing market conditions, I anticipate USD pairs to present long-term buying opportunities. Traders should closely monitor price action across major forex pairs, as the strengthening dollar may unlock significant trading potential.
DXY Jan30 Back testing AnalysisDXY
Jan30 Back testing Analysis
Asia Price in a discount.
London 2 and 3 macro are weaving in and out making higher equal highs and equal lows. Note the higher highs came to the 70 level.
4 macro spiked to the .618 note price is weaving in between the MOG. 4:15 price starts to step up and bursts to the 50 level, buy side target and by 6:45 kisses the FVG.
NY Price is in a Premium. 7 macro price retraces down to the 50 and inefficient price delivery in London. By 8:15 price hits the .79 just in time to get out before the news.
NY PM session sees Price retrace the ND manipulation to rebalance the damage from the ND.
Note-the back testing I am analyzing is the discount to premium to premium to discount. Identifying the model 2022 when key buy/sell side liquidity is taken is the trigger for the set up, inside a macro time.
Note that each session respects the 50 unless in the case study of Tuesday this week when it did not. By respect I am suggesting that Price moves from discount to premium all I have to is identify where price and enter after liquidity is taken.
Note that the ND sent the bodies of the candles to the CE of the FVG. COOL!
DXY Jan 29 Analysis-back testing logDXY
Jan 29 Analysis-back testing log
Price completes trading/rebalancing inside a HTF FVG. Price rallies to rebalance a Hourly FVG from Jan21.
Asia Price is delivering to a discount.
London 2022 model, Price comes down takes out recent key sell side liquidity rallies to MOG and launches to the 50.
2 macro starts the rally
an hour of heat
4 macro price seeks the FVG coming to the edge teasing me.
Small consolidation expected after a big rally and choppy.
NY-7;15 takes buy side liquidity and 8 macro pumps to the FVG setting up for retracement. 9 macro Price retraces the inefficient price from London and stops just shy of the .79
Note-previous day was high resistance pattern, where as this day was low resistance-THESES ARE THE DAYS TO TRADE.
Note-When Price has big gaps like this its tipping its hand that its going rip. Seen this pattern enough times to start to trust it.