USDX trade ideas
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: April 7 - 11Market Insights with Gary Thomson: FOMC Minutes, US Inflation Rate, US PPI, Earnings Reports
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode, we discuss:
- FOMC Meeting Minutes
- US Inflation Rate
- US Producer Price Index
- Corporate Earnings Statements
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DXY: Will Go Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 102.250 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 102.798 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
DXY at Make-or-Break Level Ahead of Trade Deal UncertaintyGood day Traders,
Take a moment to go through my outlook of DXY.
Currently, DXY is moving within a clearly defined ascending channel, showing a short-term bullish correction after the sharp drop seen last week. Price is respecting the channel's boundaries, making higher highs and higher lows, characteristic of a pullback phase in a broader bearish move.
However, attention is now drawn to the resistance zone around 103.80 – 104.19 zone. This area coincides with:
1. Top of the channel (confluence resistance)
2. A harmonic pattern completion zone or reversal block
3. A previous structural support-turned-resistance area
In my view, the recent price action suggests a potential reversal at or just above this zone, leading to a new bearish leg that could see DXY breaking below the current trend channel and targeting sub-102.56 and 102.00 levels.
From the fundamentals, it appears that optimism around a trade deal is helping the USD recover short-term. The market may be pricing in hope, not reality. If sentiment shifts, or deal details (between US and China) disappoint, a swift reversal is highly likely—aligning with the anticipated turn near 104.00 from the technicals.
I think this makes the current zone a high-alert area for dollar bulls and bears alike. A fake-out to the upside into this supply zone could trap late buyers before the larger macro and technical forces push the dollar back down. By implication, we then expect to see a slight drop then rally on EURUSD, GBPUSD etc.
Cheers and Happy trading!
DXY Breaking Down?The US Dollar Index (DXY) may be entering a strong bearish wave. After completing wave B, the market has started impulsive wave C to the downside. Currently, wave 3 might be ending, with a potential short-term bounce for wave 4, followed by a drop into wave 5.
Key Bearish Outlook:
Resistance Zone (Wave 4): 104.924 – 104.932
Invalidation Level: 106.505
Final Wave 5 Target: Near 93.422
If price stays below the invalidation level, more downside is expected. Watch for shorting opportunities if wave 4 completes and reverses.
DXY WILL GO DOWN|SHORT|
✅DXY made a retest of
The horizontal resistance
Of 103.400 and we are seeing
A bearish pullback already
So we are bearish biased and
We will be expecting a
Further bearish move down
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USD collapse The proposed withholding tax for foreign investors in bonds by Trump’s economic chief could negatively affect both the U.S. dollar and the stock market by reducing demand for USTs, raising bond yields, and accelerating de-dollarization. The dollar might weaken modestly, and U.S. stocks could face a correction, particularly in growth sectors sensitive to rising interest rates. However, the dollar’s reserve status and the resilience of U.S. markets suggest that a catastrophic collapse is unlikely. The real risk lies in how foreign investors and global markets react—if they perceive this as a hostile move, the fallout could be more severe.
REVERSAL ENTRY MODEL TARGETING SSLEUR/USD – 30M
Reversal Entry Model
During the London session, price swept the Asian highs, triggering buy-side liquidity. After the sweep, we had a clear change of character to the downside, indicating potential bearish intent.
I’m now expecting a pullback into my Supply Zone, where I have a SELL LIMIT order set.
Target: Liquidity resting below recent lows.
DXY Outlook: Will Trump’s Tariff Shock Fuel a Run to 106?DXY Technical Outlook – April Week 2
After Trump’s tariff announcement shook the markets last week, the Dollar Index (DXY) dropped sharply into an extreme daily demand zone (102.000–101.500) and responded with strong bullish pressure by Friday’s close.
If fear continues into Monday, DXY could extend higher. The key area to watch is 103.500, a solid resistance zone. A clean breakout above this level could trigger an aggressive rally toward 105.500–106.000, where major supply lies.
Bias: Bullish
Key Levels:
• Support: 102.000 – 101.500 (extreme demand zone)
• Resistance 1: 103.500
• Resistance 2: 105.500 – 106.000
This week, USD could be one of the strongest assets if risk-off sentiment continues and equity markets remain under pressure.
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Weekly forecast by Sphinx Trading
Let me know your bias in the comments.
#DXY #USD #DollarIndex #ForexAnalysis #SphinxWeekly #TrumpTariffs #RiskOff #MacroView
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Weekly Outlook | Elliott Wave Analysis
This DXY weekly chart highlights a potential (A)-(B)-(C) corrective structure unfolding after a completed 5-wave impulsive rally. Wave A bottomed out around the 100 level, followed by a retracement in Wave B which tested the 111.893 supply zone. Currently, price is reacting strongly from that level, suggesting a possible move toward completing Wave C.
Current Market Structure:
Wave B faced strong rejection near the 111.893 resistance/supply zone.
Price is now hovering near a short-term support zone (light green) around 102–100, which could serve as a decision point.
Two scenarios are in play:
1. Bullish Rejection from Support: If buyers defend the support, a new bullish leg may begin, retesting 111.893 or even pushing slightly higher.
2. Break Below Support: A decisive breakdown could initiate a deeper decline toward the major demand zone (highlighted in beige) near 90.00–92.50, completing Wave C.
Key Technical Zones:
Resistance (Supply Zone): 111.893
Immediate Support: 100.00–102.00
Major Demand Zone (Wave C Target): 90.00–92.50
Current Price: 102.892
Elliott Wave View:
The ongoing move appears to be part of a Wave C correction, which will be confirmed only if price breaks below the current support. On the flip side, a higher low and bullish continuation could mean the correction ended early, transitioning into a fresh impulse.
Conclusion:
The DXY is at a critical juncture. Traders should monitor price action closely at the 100–102 zone. A bounce could trigger a bullish setup back toward resistance, while a breakdown would likely bring Wave C to completion in the 90–92.50 zone.
Stay tuned and trade with discipline.
Bearish reversal?USDX is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 103.43
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 104.13
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 102.30
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Dollar is ready to continue its explosive move upwards TVC:DXY is looking HUGE the support is holding and getting bought up while putting up more technical supports everywhere needed for it to carve out a bottom. The big intersection between the wedge and the inverse head and shoulders scream cash is currently a buy
DeGRAM | DXY continues to growDXY is in a descending channel between trend lines.
The price is moving from the lower boundary of the channel.
During the momentum corrections, the chart successfully maintained the structure and held the 50% retracement level.
We expect the upward movement in the channel to continue.
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DeGRAM | DXY dollar in the turbulence zoneDXY is in a descending channel under the trend lines.
The price is moving from the upper boundary of the channel.
After breaking the trend line, the chart went sharply lower amid the announcement of trade duties, after which it formed a gap.
On the main timeframes indicators have gone into the oversold zone.
We expect that the index will seek to close the gap after testing the lower boundary of the channel.
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