EURUSD heading for a bearish dropThere is a valid supply zone having a financial move that broke structure. looking properly at the left hand side of the supply zone there is no structural liquidity, so the supply zone is expected to fail before the sells, or create some form of liquidity around the supply zone.
Kindly follow Structure, POI, liquidity and can scale down to m5 for sniper entry and apply proper risk management.
USDX trade ideas
### **Bearish Analysis of DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)**### **Bearish Analysis of DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)**
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has recently shown a weak trend, with a prevailing bearish sentiment in the market. The primary factors driving this outlook include:
### **1. Rising Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts**
- Recent weak U.S. inflation data (such as May's PPI and CPI) have reinforced market expectations that the Fed may cut rates as early as September.
- Morgan Stanley predicts the Fed could implement a cumulative 175 basis points in rate cuts by 2025, further reducing the dollar's appeal.
### **2. Trade Policy Uncertainty**
- The Trump administration has recently threatened new tariffs (e.g., 30% on imports) against the EU, Mexico, and other nations, escalating global trade tensions.
- Wall Street institutions warn that Trump’s tariff policies could trigger capital outflows, putting additional pressure on the dollar.
### **3. Growing Recession Concerns**
- Fears of a U.S. economic "hard landing" are intensifying, particularly due to deteriorating corporate orders, earnings forecasts, and capital expenditure plans, which could weaken the dollar’s safe-haven status.
- The expanding U.S. fiscal deficit (reaching $1.36 trillion this fiscal year) is further eroding confidence in the dollar.
### **4. Technical Weakness**
- Since the beginning of 2025, DXY has fallen by approximately **8.4%**, marking its worst annual start on record.
- The index currently faces key resistance at the **97.80-98.00** range. A failure to break above this level could lead to further declines toward **96.50** or lower.
- RSI and MACD indicators suggest weak short-term rebound momentum, maintaining a bearish bias.
### **5. Risk of Capital Outflows**
- The U.S. "**899 Asset Tax**" proposal could increase costs for foreign investors holding dollar-denominated assets, potentially accelerating global divestment from the dollar.
- Goldman Sachs estimates that the dollar remains **overvalued by ~15%**, leaving room for further depreciation.
### **Outlook**
In the near term, DXY’s movement will depend on:
- **June CPI Data** (A lower-than-expected reading could reinforce rate cut expectations, further weakening the dollar).
- **Trade Negotiation Developments** (Escalating tensions may trigger risk-off sentiment, while easing could relieve dollar pressure).
- **Fed Policy Signals** (More explicit dovish guidance could extend the dollar’s downtrend).
**Conclusion:** Given multiple bearish factors, the U.S. Dollar Index is likely to remain weak in the short term. Traders should closely monitor key economic data and policy shifts.
DXY REBOUNDS AFTER FORMING A DIVERGENCE!DXY rebounds after forming a divergence! Technically, we approach a pullback resistance level. What do we expect next from DXY? Is this gonna be a new era of dollar strength? From the technical standpoint, if we get a break above 99.202 we’re likely to see more bullish strength development away from this market.
deepseek→→U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Recent Analysis and Outlookchina deepseek↓↓
### **U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Recent Analysis and Outlook**
#### **1. Current Market Trends and Driving Factors**
- **Trade Policies Boost the Dollar**: U.S. President Trump recently announced new tariffs on Canada (35%), the EU, and Mexico (30%), triggering risk-off sentiment and pushing the Dollar Index (DXY) from 97.20 to around 98.00.
- **CPI Data as a Key Variable**: The U.S. June CPI data, released today (July 15), will influence market expectations for Fed rate cuts. Stronger-than-expected inflation could reinforce the dollar's rally, while weak data may weaken it.
- **Shift in Market Sentiment**: Unlike the "dollar sell-off" trend in early 2025, recent market reactions have leaned toward treating the dollar as a "safe-haven asset" rather than selling it solely due to trade war concerns.
#### **2. Technical Analysis**
- **Key Resistance and Support Levels**:
- **Resistance**: 97.80-98.00 (short-term critical range). A breakout could test 98.50 or even 99.00.
- **Support**: 97.50 (50-day moving average). A drop below may target 96.38 (June low).
- **Technical Indicators**:
- **MACD**: A golden cross has formed on the daily chart, but it remains below the zero line, suggesting the current rebound may still be corrective.
- **RSI**: Near the 50 neutral zone, not yet overbought, indicating room for further upside.
#### **3. Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook**
- **Short-Term (1-2 Weeks)**:
- **Bullish Scenario**: If CPI data is strong and DXY breaks above 98.20, it could challenge 98.50-99.00.
- **Bearish Scenario**: Weak CPI data or progress in trade talks may push DXY back to 97.30-96.50.
- **Long-Term (Second Half of 2025)**:
- **Structural Pressures Remain**: Despite the short-term rebound, the dollar still faces long-term challenges, including widening U.S. fiscal deficits, de-dollarization trends, and concerns over Fed independence.
- **Historical Trend**: After falling over 10% in the first half of 2025, DXY may continue its downtrend in the second half, though the pace of decline could slow.
#### **4. Key Risk Factors**
- **Fed Policy**: If CPI data reinforces a "higher-for-longer" rate outlook, the dollar may strengthen further. Conversely, rising rate-cut expectations could weigh on the dollar.
- **Geopolitics and Trade Talks**: Compromises from the EU or Mexico could reduce safe-haven demand, while failed negotiations may fuel further dollar gains due to risk aversion.
### **Conclusion**
The DXY is at a critical juncture, with short-term direction hinging on CPI data and trade policy developments. Technicals lean bullish, but long-term fundamentals remain challenging. Traders should closely monitor the 98.00 breakout and today’s CPI data impact.
DXY: The Market Is Looking Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding above a key level of 97.463 So a bullish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next high. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
DXY Weekly Update — July 14, 2025⌛ Timeframe:
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📆 Analysis Date: July 14, 2025
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🎯 Weekly Bias: Bearish-to-Neutral (Potential for retracement or reversal)
🔎 Market Overview:
⬇️ Persistent USD Weakness:
DXY has dropped nearly 10% YTD, marking the steepest half-year decline since 1986.
📉 Rate Cut Expectations:
Markets are pricing in a potential 75bps rate cut by the Fed in H2 2025, pushing yields and the dollar lower.
📦 Trade War Fears:
Renewed tariff risks (targeting EU, Japan, Mexico, South Korea) aren't boosting demand for USD — a signal of lost safe-haven appeal.
⚖️ Central Bank Diversification:
Global reserve managers are rotating into gold and away from USD, weakening long-term structural demand.
🌀 Sentiment & Risk Appetite:
💸 Liquidity Demand is Soft:
DXY is retesting a 4H fair value gap (97.10–97.30), suggesting potential short-term consolidation or correction.
🌍 Risk-On Mood Returns:
According to Goldman Sachs, the USD is trading more like a "risk asset" than a haven, aligning with rising equity appetite.
📉 Technical Landscape:
🟠 4H Structure:
If DXY breaks below 97.00, next support lies at 96.37, followed by 95.50–96.00.
Consolidation expected if price remains within the FVG.
🔻 Key Resistance:
97.70–98.20 zone. A break above this area could change the tone to bullish.
📌 Summary:
🔷 Fundamentals show long-term dollar weakening (rates, trade tension, reserve shifts)
🔷 Sentiment aligns with risk-on appetite and reduced USD demand
🔷 Technicals at critical level; break below 97.00 opens room for correction, break above 97.70 shifts bias bullish
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🟠 Bias: Bearish to Neutral
Watch Levels: 97.00 support, 97.70–98.20 resistance
⚠️ Note: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always apply risk management.
✅ If you like this analysis, don't forget to like 👍, follow 🧠, and share your thoughts below 💬!
DXY Previous weeks analysis and July 13 week ahead ideasDXY
July 13
July 7 to 11 DELIVERY NOTES
I suspected that price would gravitate for higher prices in last Sundays analysis, celebrate on
*up closed candle on the weekly, rebalancing SIBI from June 23 week
*Price retraced to close on equilibrium on the current range
*Monday delivered an expansion
*Tuesday retraced to Monday CE of the daily candle
*Wednesday consolidation
*Thursday retraced to a discount then reversed to take Mondays buy stops
*Friday expansion to make the high of the week closing on the CE of the FVG from Wed June 25
July 14 to 18 Ideas
Bear bias
*Since July 2 Price has been seeking higher prices, further example of trending market
*Price reaching equilibrium on the HTF range and buy side taken last week
*I suspect that price will retrace for sell side liquidity this week
*I anticipate for Price to gravitate towards the EV at 97.430 for the low target this week, possibly the noted equal lows from Monday July 7
*Friday's delivery was a in consolidation pattern
*Sundays delivery could gravitate to the noted equal highs and noted FVG
*I suspect that Price will expand to seek lower Prices for Mondays delivery
*Price expand higher in Sundays delivery, we could see Price retrace Fridays in FVG
No News Monday and Friday
DXY HEAD & SHOULDER TARGET INSIGHT? The dollar index has printed a head & shoulder pattern on the hourly chart and while it's in resistance zone of initial target, there is momentum building up to push through to next target of 97.912. This is supported by a golden cross on the 1H timeframe. The target at 97.912 also closes a window that was left open on June 24th, 2025. This trade has a low risk to high reward ratio. Cheers and Best of trading to everyone
possibility of downtrendIt is expected that the upward trend will advance to the specified resistance range and then we will see a change in trend and the beginning of the downtrend.
If the index crosses the resistance range and consolidates above this range, the continuation of the upward trend will be likely.
DXY 4Hour TF - July 13th, 2025DXY 7/13/2025
DXY 4hour Neutral Idea
Monthly - Bearish
Weekly - Bearish
Dailly - Bearish
4hour - Ranging
Keep in mind, we analyze and follow DXY more so as an indicator. The USD makes up for a large portion of trade so it makes sense to analyze it.
Going into this week we can see DXY made an attempt to push higher. Where it closed on Friday is a major zone around 98.000. We’re still majorly bearish on higher time frames so we will keep that in mind throughout this week.
As always, we will mark up two potential paths for this week, they are as follows:
Bullish Breakout - The two main zones we want to bring out attention to are 98.000 resistance and 97.500 support. We will have to wait until price action leaves this area to spot a high quality setup. Look for a convincing push above 98.000 resistance followed by a retest of 98.000 but as support. Look for a higher low to form with bullish confirmation to long on.
Bearish Continuation- Going bearish is still very possible we just need to clear 97.500 support first. Look for a break below 97.500 with a confirmed lower high and convincing bearish setups to short on.
Tariff Wars Pushing USD HigherThis is the Weekly FOREX Forecast for the week of July 14 - 18th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Index
The latest headlines tell the story. The tariffs are triggering a slow run to the USD safe haven, but the inflows from investors are moving the needle. The previous week closed strong, with buyers in control. There's a good chance we'll see more of the same this coming week.
Look for the strength in USD to continue to be supported by fundamental news, and outperform the other major currencies.
Buy USDxxx
Sell xxxUSD
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BEARISH DOLLAR AHEADTechnically expecting a bearish dollar, looking at how the pullback was corrective to the 4h supply. The 4h supply zone is currently holding and is at the equilibrium of the fib. Although we also have an opening gap above that is at the discount array, I will observe that in case the 4h supply is violated. I expect the 4h supply to be respect and push prices lower. I will be flexible in case of any shifts. I expect the trend line liquidity to be swept to the origin.
DXY Targeting Liquidity Zones & Gap Fill Before Potential ReversThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a strong bullish push, climbing steadily along an ascending trendline. Price appears to be heading toward key liquidity levels and a visible Fair Value Gap (FVG) near the previous New York high. The chart also highlights an unfilled gap above, which aligns with a potential liquidity sweep scenario.
Once these upper zones are tapped — including the liquidity and imbalance areas — a significant rejection could follow, especially considering ongoing strength in the Euro (EUR). This setup suggests a high-probability reversal opportunity after the liquidity grab
DXY: The Market Is Looking Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding above a key level of 97.370 So a bullish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next high. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
DXY strengthens but can it break THIS key level?The US dollar has gained ground this week, with the Dollar Index rising to retest the previously broken April low near the 97.92 level—an important technical zone. The short-term bias would flip to being bullish if this area breaks.
The greenback’s strength has been underpinned in part by unexpectedly strong economic data. For instance, Thursday’s weekly jobless claims came in at 227,000, below the forecast of 235,000. This marks the fourth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest reading in seven weeks, reinforcing the view that the US labour market remains tighter than anticipated.
Adding to this backdrop are President Trump’s threats of higher tariffs and expansive fiscal plans—described as “big, beautiful” spending and tax initiatives. These factors increase the risk of more persistent inflation.
While the Federal Reserve is still widely expected to initiate rate cuts in September, the rising inflationary pressures could slow the pace of easing thereafter. This shift would likely provide support for the dollar so long as investors don't lose trust in US monetary policy.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
DXY Bearish Bias
Institutions are currently holding a net short position on the Dollar, indicating bearish sentiment. With a net position of -4,282, we may expect continued weakness in the DXY, especially if price reacts from key supply zones. Swing traders should remain cautious with long setups and prioritize opportunities aligned with USD weakness across major pairs.
DXY (USD Basket) - 3 Month - Short Squeeze In Play?Technicals:
The last 3-month candle closed above the major resistance that tends to hold according to historic levels going back to the year 1967.
Golden Cross is almost complete (50 MA crossing the 200 MA).
Fundamentals:
The dollar has only been more shorted once in history (2018), setting things up for a potential "Short Squeeze" and triggering a "Risk Off" scenario. Tends to hurt risk assets quite hard—for example, tech stocks, crypto, and other leverage plays.
A rise in the DXY could potentially trigger a "Short Squeeze" for foreign countries, companies, and investors that borrow in USD, creating "economic panic" in other countries that get their currency devalued relative to their obligations.
Countries that need USD to service their debt. With the current tariffs, the flow of dollars in the world will change. The question is: what will the effect look like in August when these tariffs start to go live? Like I mentioned before, other countries need the dollars in order to service their debt. If it gets more expensive for US consumers to import (caused by the tariffs), the exporting countries won’t get those dollars—setting it up for a buying cycle that could potentially drive the USD (DXY) higher, even to all-time highs.
Current narrative:
The narrative right now is that the USD will get "worthless," setting the stage to take more risk and use more leverage, maybe without even hedging. A surprise variable to this narrative could be devastating to the financial markets—not just in the US, but even to the world. IF/When this happens, everyone will hunt the USD once again, creating a new bullish narrative for the USD, and everyone will be forced to return to the reserve currency.
Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Always do your own research and analysis before investing.