Dxy longMy dxy bias is to go bullish from 103.945 to 109.210. I expect my bias to be invalidated from the below price 102.945
USDX trade ideas
DXY Potential Scenario - 15 March Technical
- 1ST Scenario : Price will sweep Previous Week Low. inside weekly BPR
-2ND Scenario : Price moving from the same level too filling this massive liquidity voids
Fundamental
-Investors still do not trust Trump’s policies due to the numerous irrational decisions imposed by the U.S. on other countries regarding tariffs.
-The U.S. is still trying to stop the wars between Russia and Ukraine, as well as Israel and Palestine.
-At the same time, the U.S. is clearly waging economic wars against other countries.
-Let’s see, despite the positive inflation data, whether interest rates will remain stable or decrease
DXY in monthly chart (An idea for decades) Hello
What I want to discuss might be a little confusing for some you or unrealistic for other ones but I myself believe in it. I do not talk about Fundamental or any logics stand behind this chart but it's just an analysis in the aspect of EW.
Dollar started its rally from 2008 and what has made is definitely a motive wave that can be wave 1 or in bigger scale wave A. If we consider it as wave 1/A which has taken 5300 days to finish so we can expect a reasonable correction for its wave 2/B even it becomes a Zigzag. It means that I expect more complex pattern for wave 2/B.
Next point is the structure of wave 1/A which makes me anxious because if it was wave A what would happen after its wave C. To be simpler, if it is wave A, so we are in a bearish ABC for DXY and after this correction completes it must continue its bearish trend to ZERO that is impossible. Some say that it happens when Dollar is replaced with something else but I am not sure about it. The Second scenario is that it is wave 1 bullish and after this correction (in where we are now) the biggest rally starts for Dollar.
It may take a few years to be disclosed.
Thanks
Thanks
$DXY IdeaFor the DXY, on the monthly chart, we remain in a consolidation bias, as the price is trapped within a range formed by two FVGs. However, when analyzing the yearly candles, we notice a macro bearish bias, since the 2025 candle has swept the 2024 high and is now targeting the annual lows.
Since we trade intraday, it is essential to analyze other timeframes to confirm a trading bias. On the weekly chart, we observe that last week's candle swept the previous week's low and closed within the range, indicating a potential correction. This makes sense, as the DXY has extended significantly in recent weeks and is currently discounted, which may lead the price to a premium zone before resuming its downtrend, in line with our macro bias.
Additionally, based on the economic calendar, there is a possibility that the weekly low will be formed on Monday, which could create an opportunity for a counter-trend trade at the beginning of the week. However, this type of trade carries high risk, requiring caution and confirmation before entry.
For this week, we are looking for bullish opportunities up to equilibrium or until the price shows resistance to continue rising. However, this initial outlook will only be confirmed as price action develops throughout the week.
It is also important to note that this will be a challenging week, due to a lack of significant news events and a Federal Reserve speech on interest rates, which could significantly impact the market and increase volatility.
DXY Analysis – Key Market Structure Levels📌 D1 Timeframe:
- The price is currently in a discount zone and has reacted to a Balanced Price Range (BPR) on the monthly timeframe .
- If bullish momentum builds from this level, potential targets include:
- D1 premium zone
- Order block within the balanced price range
- 4H order blocks as key areas of interest
📌 Monthly Timeframe Confluence:
- The Balanced Price Range (BPR) aligns with ICT Stup , Fibonacci 0.705 - 0.79 retracement levels , and key liquidity areas.
- If price holds above discount levels , we may see a move towards the 110.157 target zone .
🔍 Market Outlook:
Short-term bullish bias as long as discount levels hold. Price action confirmation is needed before considering entries.
⚠ Risk Warning: Trading involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
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DXY BULLISHHello traders, hope we all had an eventful week.
In the coming weeks we will be seeing a bullish move in DXY, which will also create a bullish momentum for all USD pairs.
Trade safe!
Dollar Index (DXY): Bullish Reversal is Coming?!
Dollar Index is stuck on a key daily horizontal support.
Analyzing the intraday time frames, I spotted an inverted head & shoulders
pattern on a 4H.
Its neckline breakout will be an important event that will signify a bullish reversal.
The index will continue recovering then.
Alternatively, a bearish breakout of the underlined blue support
will push the prices lower.
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DXY - local reboundWe have entered the full moon phase, I am waiting for a local rebound both in DXY and in everything else, this could take from a few days to a few weeks.
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📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
DXY Dollar Index Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors.
⚡Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental factors driving DXY focus on U.S. economic conditions, Fed policy, and global currency dynamics.
Interest Rates:
U.S. Federal Reserve: Rates steady at 3-3.5%, down from 2024’s 4.5-5%. Fed officials stress data dependency, with no cuts signaled despite weak PMI (50.4) and jobless claims (219,000 vs. 215,000 forecast). Real yields (10-year Treasury at 3.8%, ~1% inflation-adjusted) support USD.
Other Countries: ECB at 2.5%, BoJ at 0.25-0.5%, BoE at 4-4.5%—U.S. yield advantage persists, though narrowing.
Impact: Bullish for DXY, tempered by global easing.
Inflation:
U.S.: PCE at 2.6% YoY (Jan 2025), above the Fed’s 2% target, with producer inflation hotter-than-expected (X posts). Inflation fears linger, supporting USD.
Other Countries: Eurozone at 2.8%, Japan at 2.5%, UK at 2.5-3%—global inflation pressures USD rivals less.
Impact: Bullish, as U.S. inflation sustains Fed hawkishness.
Economic Growth:
U.S.: Mixed signals—PMI at 50.4 (near stagnation), jobless claims up, but ADP jobs beat at 183,000 (Jan 2025). Tariffs add uncertainty.
Other Countries: China at 4.5% (slowing), Eurozone at 1.2%, Japan at 1%—U.S. outperforms peers.
Impact: Mildly bullish, U.S. resilience aids USD.
Safe-Haven Flows:
USD competes with JPY and CHF amid tariff risks and geopolitical flare-ups (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East). Recent yen strength (X posts) pressures DXY.
Impact: Mildly bearish, global risk-off challenges USD dominance.
Trade Balance:
U.S. deficit persists, but Trump’s tariffs (25% Mexico/Canada, 10% China) aim to bolster USD via trade shifts.
Impact: Bullish long-term, short-term neutral.
⚡Macroeconomic Factors
U.S.-focused with global context:
U.S. Policy: Fed’s tighter stance vs. global easing (ECB, BoJ) favors USD. Trump’s tariff threats add volatility, potentially strengthening USD via trade protectionism.
Global Growth: 3% (Morgan Stanley), with China slowing and Eurozone stagnant (PMI 46.2). U.S. relative strength supports DXY.
Commodity Prices: Oil at $70.44 pressures import-heavy peers (Japan), mildly weakening JPY vs. USD.
Currency Dynamics: Yen strength and EUR softness (EUR/USD below 1.0500) drag DXY lower recently,
⚡Commitments of Traders (COT) Data
Hypothetical COT (mid-Feb 2025, CME):
Large Speculators: Net long USD ~70,000 contracts (down from 80,000 post-110 peak), cooling after profit-taking.
Commercial Hedgers: Net short USD ~80,000, hedging export exposure as tariffs loom.
Open Interest: ~150,000 contracts, stable, reflecting U.S. trader engagement.
Key Insight: Speculative longs suggest bullish bias, but moderation hints at consolidation.
⚡Market Sentiment Analysis
Includes retail, institutional, and corporate traders:
Retail Sentiment: U.S. retail traders likely 60% short DXY at 106.000 (hypothetical broker data), betting on yen/CHF gains. Contrarian upside risk if shorts unwind.
Institutional Traders: U.S. funds (e.g., Citi, HSBC) mixed—bearish short-term (DXY to 96.87, Citi Hong Kong), bullish long-term (WalletInvestor to 119.193). Sentiment leans cautious.
Corporate Traders: U.S. exporters hedge at 106.50-107.00, neutral as tariffs loom; European firms favor EUR weakness.
Social Media (X): notes yen-driven DXY weakness, sees bearish momentum to 106.15—trending bearish.
Broker Data: U.S. IG sentiment ~55% long—balanced positioning.
⚡Quantitative Analysis
Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (106.30), 200-day SMA (105.50)—price below 50-day, above 200-day, neutral signal.
RSI: 45 (daily), bearish momentum fading, room for reversal.
Bollinger Bands: 105.80-106.80 range, 106.000 at midpoint—consolidation likely.
Fibonacci: 38.2% retracement from 110.00-102.50 at 105.62—key support holds.
Volatility Model: Implied volatility (1-month) at 7%, suggesting 0.75-point monthly range (±0.7%).
⚡Intermarket Analysis
USD/JPY: At 150.00, yen strength pressures DXY; drop to 145 could accelerate declines.
EUR/USD: Below 1.0500, EUR weakness supports DXY mildly.
Gold: XAU/USD at 2940 (risk-off proxy) inversely pressures USD.
Equities: S&P 500 range-bound (5960-6120) reflects stability, neutral for DXY.
Bonds: U.S. 10-year yield at 3.8% vs. JGB at 0.9%—yield gap aids USD.
⚡News and Events Analysis
Recent: Trump’s tariff threats (25% Mexico/Canada, 10% China, Feb 23-25) fuel risk-off, pressuring DXY via yen strength (X posts). Weak U.S. PMI and jobless claims offset by PCE at 2.6% (Jan 2025).
Upcoming: U.S. PCE data (Feb 28) critical—hotter data could lift DXY, softer data bearish. Fed rhetoric pending.
Impact: Bearish near-term from risk-off, bullish potential from Fed stance.
⚡Overall Summary Outlook
DXY at 106.000 balances U.S. resilience (Fed policy, inflation) against global risk-off pressures (tariffs, yen strength). Fundamentals favor USD long-term, but macro risks and sentiment (retail shorts, X bearishness) suggest near-term softness. COT shows cautious longs, quant signals consolidation, and intermarket flows (gold rise, yen strength) lean bearish. Short-term dip to 105.50-105.91 likely, medium-term range-bound with a bullish tilt if Fed holds firm.
⚡Future Prediction
Bullish Case: DXY to 108.00-110.00 by Q2 2025 if PCE/Fed bolster USD, tariffs lift trade flows, and risk-on resumes.
Bearish Case: Drop to 103.50-105.00 if yen/CHF surge, tariffs falter, or Fed dovishness emerges.
Prediction: Mildly bearish short-term to 105.50, then bullish to 108.00 by mid-2025, driven by Fed policy divergence.
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DXY SINGLING DANGER!Any Time The Dollar Gets In This Range Bad Things Happen!
With the exception of the 2008 GFC which confirmed we have entered Debt Deflation (Meaning the Gov will need to borrow more and more, faster and faster without any benefit to the real economy). A strong dollar is signaling something very bad is coming.
Gun to head I would guess something like an Asian Currency Crisis. Russian ruble & economic collapse is now a certainty! Russia has lost the war no matter what they are trying to do on the battlefield it is irrelevant as the economy is now suffering from Dutch Disease. (So Much for the BRICS fantasy!)
Most Americans believe a strong dollar is good. They are wrong. Here are a few things to know about a strong US Dollar.
1. A strong dollar weakens exports, costing American jobs as everything America made becomes more expensive to the rest of the world.
2. US Imports increase as everything internationally made becomes cheaper.
3. Acquiring USD as foreign reserves becomes much more difficult and expensive. As exporters to the US have to produce more for less $s.
4. US investment in international currency collapses, forcing inflation, rates higher making borrowing/investment in foreign economies weaker. Leading to a snowball effect.
5. Commodities are traded in USD. As such energy/food to many poor nations will become a problem as they are net importers with already limited access to NYSE:S it will be magnified.
6. Finally (I could go on but I won't you get the point) when everyone leans on one side of the boat it capsizes. Meaning when everyone is running to invest in the US & the dollar.
Techanically how high can the USD go?
-120 is likely. (hopefully not much more)
-Longer term if things get bad enough it can break all-time highs of 165 as we have this massive bottoming inverse HEAD & SHOULDERS in place. CARNAGE!
- What I hope will happen is that it hits previous recent highs of 115 and that will be it for the upside. HOWEVER!
We do have a rising structure that needs to be corrected. As such when it does correct there is a good possibility it tests previous lows.
For now, if you live in the US. enjoy dollar strength and think about how much worse inflation would have been if the $ was weakening. ))
$DXY: Dollar Strength or Dollar Dip?(1/9)
Good afternoon, everyone! 🌞 DXY: Dollar Strength or Dollar Dip?
With the DXY at 103.732, is the dollar flexing its muscles or ready to stumble? Let’s break it down! 🔍
(2/9) – PRICE PERFORMANCE 📊
• Current Price: 103.732 as of Mar 14, 2025 💰
• Recent Move: Near recent levels, down from 110.18 peak (web data) 📏
• Sector Trend: Forex markets volatile, with trade and policy shifts 🌟
It’s a wild ride—dollar’s dancing on the edge! ⚙️
(3/9) – MARKET POSITION 📈
• Role: Measures USD vs. euro, yen, pound, and more 🏆
• Influence: Drives forex and commodity prices globally ⏰
• Trend: Balancing U.S. policy and global demand, per data 🎯
King of currencies, but not without challengers! 🚀
(4/9) – KEY DEVELOPMENTS 🔑
• Trade Tensions: U.S.-China tariff talks ongoing, per data 🌍
• Rate Cut Bets: Markets eyeing Fed moves, per posts on X 📋
• Market Reaction: Holding steady at 103.732 amid mixed signals 💡
Navigating a storm of global pressures! 🛳️
(5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS ⚡
• Rate Cuts: Could weaken dollar if Fed acts, per X sentiment 🔍
• Trade Wars: Tariffs disrupting supply chains, per data 📉
• Global Growth: Slowdowns hitting demand for USD ❄️
It’s a tightrope—risks aplenty! 🛑
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS 💪
• Reserve Status: USD’s global dominance holds firm 🥇
• U.S. Economy: Still a powerhouse, supporting dollar value 📊
• Safe Haven: Attracts flows in uncertain times, per trends 🔧
Got muscle to flex when it counts! 🏦
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES ⚖️
• Weaknesses: Vulnerable to rate cuts, trade spats 📉
• Opportunities: Strong U.S. data could lift it higher, per outlook 📈
Can it hold the line or break out? 🤔
(8/9) – POLL TIME! 📢
DXY at 103.732—your take? 🗳️
• Bullish: 105+ soon, dollar rallies 🐂
• Neutral: Steady, risks balance out ⚖️
• Bearish: 100 looms, dollar dips 🐻
Chime in below! 👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY 🎯
The DXY’s 103.732 shows it’s steady but tested 📈. Trade wars and Fed moves could swing it either way—dips are our DCA gold 💰. Buy low, ride high—time’s the key! Gem or bust?
uptrendIt is expected that in the current support range, the trend change is expected to see the rise. It can then advance to the specified resistance range.
DXY DOLLARImpact of Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations on DXY Directional Bias tomorrow
The Department Responsible: The University of Michigan’s Survey Research Center releases both the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data.
Key Data Points (March 13, 2025)
Metric Forecast Previous
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
63.1 64.7
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
4.3% 4.3%
Impact on DXY Directional Bias
Consumer Sentiment Below Forecast
DXY: Bearish. Lower consumer sentiment suggests weaker economic growth, potentially reducing demand for the USD.
Technical Impact: DXY could drop toward 102 level or more if support fails to hold
Fundamental Driver: Reduced consumer spending can slow economic growth, leading to a weaker USD.
Inflation Expectations Remain High
DXY: Mixed. High inflation expectations might signal future price pressures, potentially supporting a hawkish Fed stance. However, if inflation fears are already priced in, the impact might be muted.
Technical Impact: DXY may consolidate or buy based on the current demand floor
.
Dollar index and Inflation There has been a positive relationship between Dollar Index and Inflation over last so many years. Increase in inflation leads to appreciation in Dollar and vice versa.
DXY: Sell the RipThe latest Producer Price Index (PPI) for the U.S. came in at 0.0% MoM, missing expectations of 0.3%. This suggests that inflation pressures at the wholesale level are cooling, which could signal a shift in the Fed's stance towards less aggressive monetary tightening. A softening in inflation reduces the likelihood of further interest rate hikes or extended hawkish policy from the Federal Reserve. This dovish shift typically puts downward pressure on the U.S. Dollar as investors adjust expectations for future yields. The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) has already shown signs of weakening in recent sessions, and this miss on PPI may add further fuel to the bearish trend.
U.S. Dollar Index
Hello and greetings to dear traders,
I have identified important areas on the DXY chart. As the price approaches these areas and we receive the appropriate confirmations, we can execute effective trades.
Key Areas:
Strong Area for Selling:
Secret Order Block (4H): 103.979 and 104.064
Liquidity (4H): 104.064
Effective Imbalance on the Chart:
Market targets to reach this imbalance are at: 104.558 and 104.850
Considering this scenario, we can look for effective selling opportunities in the currency pairs of Euro, Pound, Australian Dollar, and New Zealand Dollar. I will send you updates with these charts for more information.
Thank you for your support. A very simple and clear chart has been drawn for your use.
Wishing you all success!
Fereydoon Bahrami
A retail trader in the Wall Street Trading Center (Forex)
Risk Disclosure:
Trading in the Forex market is risky due to high price volatility. This analysis is solely my personal opinion and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own research. You are responsible for any profits or losses resulting from this analysis.
DOLLAR I Weekly CLS, KL - MIFVG, Consolidation to reversalHey Traders!!
Feel free to share your thoughts, charts, and questions in the comments below—I'm about fostering constructive, positive discussions!
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DXYdollar ,despite poor Core CPI m/m economic data saw a quick buy based on weekly demand structure. the sudden buy idea reversed AUDUSD,USDJPY,EURUSD,GBPUSD,USDCAD and many more USD PAIRS...avoid trading news if you want to be a long term profitable forex trader,
DXXThe DXY is still under significant bearish pressure, and if the current support levels fail to hold, the index could target lower levels, including 100.740 as a key downside objective. With the broader trend turning negative, a further decline to this level appears increasingly probable.
The Dollar Index has reversed upward.Hey everyone!
Looks like a solid entry for a DXY long and a good time to start ditching EUR and Gold (yes, I do think gold is heading down).
On the daily chart, we can see that we've completed five waves down and are now forming a reversal.
EUR/USD and GOLD/USD have already started reacting, Index Dollar (DXY) hitting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Now the climb begins, with the first target around 125 for the Dollar Index.
The potential peak?
144, though we’ll likely see corrections along the way.
Buckle up—volatile times ahead... 🧐🧐🧐
DXY in 1 H timeframeDXY Analysis on RTM Style
Here’s an analysis of the **U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the 1H timeframe** based on the **RTM (Read The Market) style** and your drawn arrows:
Previous Trend & Break of Structure (BoS)**
- The market has been in a strong downtrend, forming **Lower Lows (LL) and Lower Highs (LH)**.
- After breaking the **105.485 level (0.5 Fibonacci retracement)**, the bearish momentum continued down to the **103.5 support zone**.
Liquidity Zones & Potential Reversal**
- The price is currently consolidating around **103.5**, indicating a possible reaction from buyers.
- A **Higher High (HH)** is marked, suggesting a potential shift in market structure.
Possible Scenario Based on the Arrows**
- A short-term **accumulation phase** is expected between **103.5 - 104**.
- If the price breaks above **103.998**, bullish momentum may drive it toward the **105.5 - 106.7 zone (Fibonacci 0.5 & 0.786 retracement levels)**.
- If this resistance is broken, the final target could be **107.27**, a strong resistance level.
- The market is at a **key support level** and may form a bullish structure.
- Confirmation of a **Higher High** and a break above **103.998** could trigger an upward move.
- **Re-Accumulation** is expected before a strong bullish continuation.
- **Bearish Alternative**: If the **103.5 support** fails, the price may drop further to **102.1**.
This analysis is suitable for publishing, but I recommend adding an alternative scenario in case the support fails, giving a more well-rounded outlook.
DXY Price Analysis: Time For Correction?DXY Price Analysis: Time For Correction?
DXY corrected nearly 65% of the bullish wave in a short time. Currently DXY is testing a price zone that was seen for the last time at the beginning of November 2024, almost 3.5 month ago.
The odds are that DXY has to create any correction before it moves down more. Also this wave is overextended too much and from a technical point of view DXY should not devaluate more.
However this month was very strange across all the currency pairs so everything is possible.
Given that the market will not be so clear overall and will not give up from the USD so easily I think that DXY has room for correction before resuming another bearish wave.
A possible correction near to 105 is possible this time.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Dollar Index SellsThe dollar Index Sells are aligning with the GU Buys and EU buys with AU buys as the dollar Index weakens I expect the mentioned pairs to strengthen with buys let's await the US open and see what really happens
