DXYDXY still on a bearish trend looking forward to the next drop this week coming up with CPI news incoming.
USDX trade ideas
dxy long scenario hello traders~~~
dxy long full scenario
1. tp hit and a little correction now
2. after some correction i expect will touch tp3 ( near 111 )
arrow shows correction target
3 if reach tp3 need analyze again ...
DXY is consolidating in narrow zoneDXY is consolidating in narrow zone. Fed news are causing small volatility in dollar index but not clear breakout.
US Dollar Index Long Term Analysis.Hello Traders,
this is my analysis for the dollar index the trend is down and made lower low and based on the fib we reaching a great zone to go short.with the risk of not more than 1%.
and as always risk managment is the key.
Good luck to everyone.
Dollar Index Bullish to $111.350 (UPDATE)The Dollar bulls held steady this week & the weekly candle has just closed, with buyers stabilising price above our supply zone.
We are still within our 'Wave 5' bullish move & we expect this move to carry on towards $111.350✈️
US DOLLAR at Key Support: Will Price Rebound to 108.200?TVC:DXY is currently testing a key support zone, an area where the price has previously shown strong bullish reactions. The recent price action suggests that buyers may step in and drive the price higher. A bullish confirmation, such as a strong rejection pattern, bullish engulfing candles, or long lower wicks, would increase the probability of a bounce from this level. If buyers regain control, the price could move toward the 108.200 level.
However, a breakout below this support would invalidate the bullish outlook, potentially opening the door for further downside.
This is not financial advice but rather how I approach support/resistance zones. Remember, always wait for confirmation, like a rejection candle or volume spike before jumping in.
Please boost this post, every like and comment drives me to bring you more ideas! I’d love to hear your perspective in the comments.
Best of luck , TrendDiva
USD: The Fed will hold rates until 3QA respectable outcome for January job creation with fewer than feared downward revisions to historical data have cemented expectations that the Fed will not be cutting rates imminently. There are still lingering concerns about the quality of jobs being added, but an improving trend in jobs creation since late summer means the Fed will hold rates until 3Q.
A quick glance at what's happening after the NFP releaseLet's see how markets are performing right now after we received the US NFP number for January, which showed a significant decline from the previous reading. However, average hourly earnings improved and unemployment fell to 4%. Last time we saw a reading as low as 4% was back in June of 2024.
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DXY Will Go Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 107.703.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 106.459.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
USD: Annual revisions may be bigThe dollar’s bearish momentum has eased into today’s US jobs release. Most of the tariff shock from last weekend has been absorbed, and markets are also probably reconsidering the optimism on a US-China deal. Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs are due to come into effect on Monday, and the chances of a de-escalation before then have decreased. Also helping the dollar were some comments by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said the strong dollar policy remains in place.
The biggest driver for FX should be US payroll figures for January. The consensus is for a slowdown from 256k to 175k, but our estimate is closer to 160k. A lot of focus will be on annual benchmark revisions. Last year's provisional revisions indicated that, upon cross-referencing with tax data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics had overestimated job creation by approximately one-third. This points to significant issues with their model, and we anticipate substantial adjustments to the monthly payroll numbers.
correctionGiven the index's behavior within the current support range, there is a possibility of a trend change and the start of an uptrend scenario is likely.
DXY - Can NFP be a Catalyst in 1st Quarter of '25?Dear Friends,
Keynote:
NFP - Labour data today, be safe!
How I see it:
NFP has the potential to offer a clearer short-term direction.
**If the weekly body closes above 108 = Potentially continue "NORTH"
**If the weekly body closes below 107 = Potentially due "SOUTH"
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
DXY H1 Buying IdeaReady to see DXY to fly
Everything is on the chart
Take Profit if you want at 100%-123%-138%- 168% Fib
Goodluck
Surging Dollar Spurs Jump in Corporate FX HedgingThe relentless rise of the U.S. dollar is sending ripples of concern through the global economy, and businesses are taking notice. Faced with a strengthening greenback, corporations are increasingly turning to foreign exchange (FX) hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of currency fluctuations on their bottom lines. This surge in hedging activity reflects a growing awareness of the risks associated with currency volatility and a proactive approach to protecting profits in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.
The Dollar's Dominance
The U.S. dollar has been on a tear, appreciating significantly against a basket of other major currencies. This surge is driven by a confluence of factors, including the Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy, safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, and the relative strength of the U.S. economy. While a strong dollar can have some benefits, such as lower import costs, it also poses significant challenges for multinational corporations.1
Impact on Corporate Earnings
For companies that generate revenue in foreign currencies but report earnings in U.S. dollars, a strong dollar can create a significant headwind. When foreign revenues are converted back into dollars, they are worth less than they were before the dollar's appreciation. This can lead to lower reported earnings, even if the company's underlying business performance remains strong. Conversely, companies that import goods priced in dollars but sell them in other currencies see their profit margins squeezed as their input costs rise.
The Hedging Imperative
In this environment of heightened currency risk, FX hedging has become a crucial tool for corporations.2 Hedging involves using financial instruments, such as forward contracts, options, or swaps, to lock in exchange rates for future transactions.3 This allows companies to insulate themselves from adverse currency movements and provides greater certainty about their future cash flows and earnings.4
Surge in Hedging Activity
Market data suggests a significant uptick in corporate FX hedging activity. Treasurers and finance departments are increasingly prioritizing currency risk management, recognizing that even small fluctuations in exchange rates can have a material impact on their financial results. This increased focus on hedging is driven by several factors:
• Heightened Volatility: The dollar's rapid appreciation has created significant volatility in currency markets, making it more difficult for companies to predict future exchange rates. This uncertainty underscores the need for hedging strategies to protect against unexpected currency swings.
• Earnings Protection: As mentioned earlier, a strong dollar can erode corporate earnings. Hedging allows companies to mitigate this risk and ensure that their financial performance is not unduly impacted by currency fluctuations.5
• Strategic Planning: Hedging provides greater predictability in cash flows, which is essential for strategic planning and investment decisions.6 By locking in exchange rates, companies can make more informed decisions about future investments and expansion plans.7
• Shareholder Expectations: Investors are increasingly scrutinizing companies' currency risk management practices. Companies that proactively hedge against currency risks are often seen as more prudent and better managed, which can be a positive factor for investor confidence.
Types of Hedging Strategies
Companies employ a variety of hedging strategies depending on their specific needs and risk tolerance.8 Some common approaches include:
• Forward Contracts: These contracts obligate a company to buy or sell a specific amount of currency at a predetermined exchange rate on a future date.9 This is a straightforward way to lock in exchange rates for future transactions.
• Options: Currency options give a company the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell currency at a specific price on or before a certain date.10 Options provide flexibility and allow companies to benefit from favorable currency movements while limiting their downside risk.11
• Currency Swaps: These agreements involve exchanging principal and/or interest payments in one currency for those in another currency.12 Swaps can be used to manage currency risk associated with long-term debt or investments.13
Challenges and Considerations
While hedging can be an effective way to manage currency risk, it's not without its challenges. Hedging strategies can be complex and require specialized expertise. Furthermore, hedging involves costs, such as premiums paid for options or fees for forward contracts.14 Companies need to carefully weigh the costs and benefits of hedging and choose strategies that are appropriate for their specific circumstances.
Looking Ahead
The strong dollar is likely to remain a significant factor in the global economy for the foreseeable future. As such, corporate FX hedging is expected to remain a priority for multinational companies. Companies that proactively manage their currency risk are better positioned to navigate the challenges of a strong dollar environment and protect their earnings from adverse currency movements.15 The current surge in hedging activity reflects a growing recognition of this reality and a proactive approach to mitigating currency risk in an increasingly interconnected world. As global economic conditions evolve, companies will need to remain vigilant and adapt their hedging strategies accordingly to ensure they are adequately protected from currency volatility.
Levels discussed on Livestream 6th Feb 20256th Feb 2025
DXY: Retracing from 107 support area, look for reaction between 107.90 and 108.30, above 108.30 could trade up to 109.
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5640 SL 20 TP 50
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6280 SL 30 TP 80 (hesitation at 0.6330)
GBPUSD: Straddle Rates Decision Pending
Sell 1.2430 SL 30 TP 100
Buy 1.2510 SL 30 TP 100
EURUSD: Sell 1.0320 SL 30 TP 90
USDJPY: Buy 153.65 SL 40 TP 90
EURJPY: Sell 157.75 SL 40 TP 120
GBPJPY: Sell 189.70 SL 50 TP 145
USDCHF: Sell 0.90 SL 25 TP 80 (hesitation at 0.8975)
USDCAD: Buy 1.44 SL 30 TP 60
XAUUSD: Retracing, could test 2840 (50%) and bounce higher to 2900
DXY Trading JournalDXY Trading Journal
Feb 7
This week Price has been on sell side raid, M, T, W rebalancing volume gaps from Monday and Monday Jan 27. Gaps are magnets is the take away from this week. Seems obvious now in hindsight. Institutional price delivery is now clear to me. How it steps down and where and why it consolidates.
Yesterday price took out equal highs in London consolidating at the .618 before declining.
Today price starts in a double discount if price makes it to key buys stops in London it should set up NY for a sell off.
Alternatively Price could come to the equal lows and then seek higher prices to finish the week.
Watch where price take key stops and make analysis from there.
Dollar Reaching Mayor Resistance From Decades Since 2009 the dollar index has been moving in a bullish direction , I saw the price has rejected several times a zone I marked as Mayor Resistance that it might been posible to reject again but the price has dropped without further reaching this price line making a higher low and I see the possibility that the price can reach to find liquidity and drop again or break this mayor resistance and try to get a higher high but that will take much time and see this happening can affect the price of other assets in a bearish direction…
dxy sell tradeThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing a downward trend, indicating weakening momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing a bearish crossover, further supporting the potential for a downward move
DXY Trading Journal DXY Trading Journal
Feb 7
Well regained confidence with my analysis from yesterday.
Price did gravitate to the equal highs and rebalanced the noted FVG. Great delivery.
Feb 6 note
"The previous range is in a discount. I would suspect that Price could seek higher Prices to rebalance the hourly FVG and the equal highs. If price comes to the 107.775-107.820 for the London session and seek lower prices in NY. "
DXY - Near TopThe dollar index is showing weakness.
Considering the chart and Trump's policies to support domestic production, interest rate cuts, and other macroeconomic policies, it seems that we will soon be on a downward trend.
DXY Is Nearing The Daily TrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring DXY for a buying opportunity around 107.200 zone, DXY is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 107.200 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
