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AUDUSD DXY What I am looking for going into this week to close off the month of Feb for AU.

Idea:Ghost's AUD/USD Long Setup (Sh…

Below is also my high time frame reversal I shared weeks ago that many called me a fool for...

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Call me a fool now :)

25 wins in a row for 2025 with almost 500+ pips gained.

DXY next week analysis
base on SMARTmoney concept
Idea:DXY on high time frame

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DXY oversaturated and inflated

DXY U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Weekly Outlook

After looking at technical levels, fundamentals, and institutional positioning (COT data & investor sentiment), here’s a balanced take on where the Dollar Index (DXY) could be headed this week.

Bullish Case (50% Probability)
• Key Level: 106.000–105.500 is a strong support zone. If buyers step in, we could see a push toward 108–110.
• Fundamental Factors:
• Potential U.S. trade tariffs might boost demand for the dollar as a safe haven.
• Consumer confidence and inflation data could influence Fed expectations—strong data would likely support the USD.
• Institutional Positioning (COT Data):
• Net-long positions have dropped (-4.7B), but institutions still hold 26.5B in USD longs—suggesting underlying strength.
• More hedging activity, which signals caution but not outright bearishness.
• Investor Sentiment:
• The dollar has gained about 7% since September, but some funds are starting to scale back exposure.
• If 106.000 holds, the short-term trend could stay bullish before any bigger shift.

🔹 Trading Approach:
• Look for bullish setups around 106.000–105.500.
• Targets: 108.000, then 110.000 if momentum holds.
• Invalidation: A clean break below 106.000 signals weakness.

Bearish Case (50% Probability)
• Key Level: If 106.000 doesn’t hold, there’s room for a drop to 104.000–103.500.
• Fundamental Factors:
• Institutional long positions are shrinking, hinting at possible distribution.
• Increased bullish bets on the Japanese Yen (JPY) suggest capital may be moving away from USD.
• Cooling sentiment on the USD and U.S. equities adds to short-term downside risk.
• Institutional Positioning (COT Data):
• Big players are trimming USD exposure but haven’t fully turned bearish yet.
• If we see further outflows, a move below 106.000 becomes more likely.

🔹 Trading Approach:
• Look for shorts below 106.000, targeting 104.000–103.500.
• Keep an eye on CPI data, consumer confidence, and trade-related headlines.
• If 106.000 breaks, expect smart money to drive prices lower before any potential rebound.

Final Thoughts

DXY is at a make-or-break level (106.000):
• Scenario 1 (Bullish, 50%) – 106.000 holds → move toward 108–110.
• Scenario 2 (Bearish, 50%) – 106.000 breaks → move toward 104–103.500.
• Institutional & Sentiment Insights:
• Net-long positions decreasing (bearish pressure).
• More hedging (uncertainty, but not full bearish commitment).
• Investor sentiment is cooling, increasing the risk of a pullback.

🔹 Bottom Line: Watch how price reacts at 106.000—it’s the key pivot for the next move.

DXY Next week analysis🎯🎯👍 tradingview.com/x/PtEJiZVM
Snapshot

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USDCAD DXY Targets hit!! close trades before market close lets consider this a successful move just missing a few pips
Snapshot

Many of you will skip this but it’s a recommended read and to implement over the weekend. For today we will focus on one word.

resilience
noun - the capacity to withstand or to recover quickly from difficulties; toughness.

Trading is a game of ups and downs. Quite literally. Losses are inevitable, but what defines a great trader is their ability to bounce back, learn, and keep moving forward. Resilience means staying focused after a bad trade, adapting to market shifts, and maintaining confidence in your strategy even when things don’t go your way. It happens. But how you handle this is even more important. There are days, even weeks of bad trades, poor market conditions and results. It happens. It will continue happening. It’s up to a trader to deal with it.

Ask yourself this. In the past 365 days (1 year of trading) or however long it may be. Have you experienced a bad week? Loss after loss. No matter how much the trade made sense, there was technicals backing it even fundamentals. We seen that with gold a lot this month. So you probably have experienced this. Anger, pissed off, feeling lost, ready to give up, blaming everyone. The easiest solution? Giving up. Right? True. It is easier to give up than to be resilient. Sad truth. But one thing we can guarantee is, don’t give up, in the long-term it’s going to be worth it. Giving up won’t fix the issues you are facing. Facing the issues will fix them. Plain simple. Trading isn’t about always being right, it’s about being able to recover when you’re wrong. Every trader, no matter how skilled, faces losses, setbacks, and periods of doubt. What separates those who succeed from those who quit is again.. resilience.

You might ask now; How does a trader bounce back? What can I do?

1. Embracing Losses as Lessons

Losses aren’t failures. They’re feedback. Resilient traders don’t dwell on their mistakes or let emotions take over. Instead, they analyse what went wrong, adjust their strategy, and move forward with focus.

2. Managing Emotional Swings

Markets are unpredictable, and so are emotions. Fear, greed, frustration.. whatever it may be. Resilient traders acknowledge these feelings but don’t let them dictate decisions. They stick to their trading plan, knowing that emotional trading leads to costly mistakes.

3. Adapting to Market Conditions

No strategy works forever. Resilience means being flexible enough to adapt when market conditions shift. Traders who survive long-term are those who evolve, refine their approach, and stay ahead of the curve.

4. Staying in the Game

Success in trading is about longevity. Resilient traders understand that one bad day or a week doesn’t define them, and one big win doesn’t mean they have mastered the market. They focus on consistency, continuous learning, and disciplined execution. Day in and day out.

You can find a detailed mindset post here as well: Idea:Traders Mindset

This week is done, next trading week is coming. Take this weekend to pre-plan and prepare. We will post more analysis on DXY pairs such as; XAUUSD USDJPY EURUSD and we might do a US30 analysis. Stay tuned!

Thank you for your amazing support and don’t give up!

FxPocket