Rocket Pool - react, don't predict!Hello, traders!
This is my analysis on Rocket Pool (RPL).
Normally I use Binance as my main source for crypto charts, but I decided to use this chart instead for better historical data.
1️⃣ Analysis
In my previous post on Rocket Pool, I've suggested entering long after confirming the reversal and sell at 12.347. We now see the price rebounding as it touches the target price - allowing us new opportunities for opposite direction.
Looking at the historical data of the daily chart, we see that the price is on a constant downtrend. As marked in boxes, Rocket Pool has also shown multiple steady swing movements.
The price is now moving sideways just below the previous ATL of 13.70 - while it has shown rebound on July 8th, it eventually failed to maintain the uptrend, falling below the level.
2️⃣ Expectations
The current movements suggest that the price will start declining again. With price right under ATL, there's a possibility of price maintaining the swing movements longer.
However, we also cannot exclude a possibility of the price recording new ATL with further downtrend as it did last week on 5th. The price has already been in a downtrend for over 6 months and failing to completely rebound at ATL cannot be overlooked.
Red support line based on two LL points of August 5th(LL after the lower breakout) and November 5th (most recent LL) showing precise price actions two years back when extended to the left also support this expectation.
Another possibility to consider, though, is price breaking through the consolidation box upwards and starting an uptrend. This is very possible due to the current market condition in which many other cryptos led by BTC and DOGE are breaking through the resistance line.
3️⃣ Key approach
Our first strategy is to enter short after confirmation. Our initial target price would be 10.37, next being 9, and final being 8.41. We want to be extra cautious in this approach because we are trading against the overall market sentiments. This is why our initial target price is 10.37, to lock in the profit. Our next targets could be unrealistic due to the market condition.
4️⃣ Other approach
Our second strategy is to enter long. My second strategy is usually inferior to the first one, but this time, it's almost 50-50. But make sure to enter after solid confirmation - with price being below ATL and inside the consolidation box, we must see the breakouts first. Like any other breakouts, this contains uncertainties.
5️⃣ Considerations
We see the crypto market in its historical bull rally. With Trump winning the election and BTC reaching over 82k now, we don't know exactly when the rally would slow down - if it's ever going to in next few months. This could affect Rocket Pool to weaken or even seize its downtrend which is why we should approach cautiously to shorting.
Rocket Pool being under its ATL gives us a lot of uncertainties and variables, making us hard to decide. Granted, many other cryptos were also showing continuous downtrend before the election but ATL is a different story. Be very cautious.
React, don't predict! Stay disciplined and patient. Don't get greedy and be thankful.
God bless :)
2 Corinthians 12:10
