USDRUB: Ruble Recovery and the Lagarde AppearanceThe outlook for the currency market has been radically transformed. After a period in which the ruble hit record lows, today marks the start of a bullish rebound. The dollar's loss of value has allowed the ruble to strengthen significantly, while attention is focused on the appearance of Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB).
Lagarde's Appearance and ECB Policy
At the same time, the focus in Europe is on the appearance of Christine Lagarde, who could shed new light on the ECB's monetary policy strategy. Investors are hoping that her statements will provide clarity in a complex global context, as any hints about adjustments to the bank's policy could influence capital flows and thus USDRUB performance. This situation adds another layer of uncertainty and opportunity in a market already marked by sharp movements.
Other Relevant Market Factors
In addition to the dynamics between the dollar and the ruble and the expectations around the ECB, other elements that are influencing the day should be considered:
- Cryptocurrencies and Commodities: volatility in the cryptocurrency sector and fluctuations in assets such as Brent, coffee or gold act as thermometers of risk appetite, complementing the USDRUB analysis.
- Global Markets: Asian indices and Wall Street continue to offer mixed signals. While some Asian markets show slight rises, optimism in the United States translates into green closes, contributing to an environment of uncertainty and, at the same time, opportunities.
Technical Analysis
With the Ruble in Recovery the dollar has lost ground and has fallen to a price similar to the one recorded on June 20, 2024, when the momentum zone led the ruble to reach its lows at 112.37 rubles per dollar. Today, the market has reacted with a remarkable bullish rebound, and the Russian currency currently stands at 80.26 rubles to the dollar. This recovery is evidence of a significant turnaround in market sentiment, reflecting renewed investor confidence amid a backdrop of geopolitical and economic changes. Since the January 3 highs, the ruble has been recovering in price to $80.26, reinforcing the idea that Russia is gaining strength over the US from an economic strength standpoint. Several banks have reported their new offer on access to Forex trading on USDRUB due to this growing interest in the ruble and its apparent strength in the markets. A triple contact is occurring (June 14, 2023, June 20, 2024, and yesterday March 18) which is marking the possibility of seeing if this value is a passing thing and will return in the direction of the checkpoint (POC) located at $91.40 given that this is the area of the price bell with the highest average trading volume. Everything suggests that the price will not continue to fall as RSI is highly oversold from yesterday's 23.80% to today's 35.26%, which could signal a return to the range between $97.31 and $86.01. Increased interest in this currency could generate more volume and volatility in the market than usual.
Conclusion
In summary, the USDRUB's performance is determined by the conjunction of critical elements reshaping the market outlook. On the one hand, the surprising recovery of the ruble - driven by the remarkable depreciation of the dollar from levels as extreme as 112.37 rubles - signals a turnaround in investor sentiment and reinforces Russia's economic strength. On the other, Christine Lagarde's imminent appearance before the ECB adds a component of uncertainty and opportunity, as any hint of adjustments in European monetary policy could trigger further moves in this pair. In an environment marked by high volatility, investors will need to rigorously assess each variable and combine technical and fundamental analysis to identify opportunities and manage the risks inherent in such a dynamic and constantly evolving market.
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RUBUSD trade ideas
Russia after peace 2: an idea for a moral tradeOn December 22 we were long on the inevitable peace deal, while the rest of the world was salivating at the idea of a ruble collapse.
3 out of 4 take profits hit. this was a free trade and 30% is a lot in forex. speculators bit concrete, peace wins along with my followers. trade remains open but we closed already the big sizes.
Russia after peace: an idea for a moral tradeIf you do forex, there is huge speculation going on against Russia since the Pluto transit occurred. The barbaric world of speculation is currently betting on the total collapse of the Ruble, which has lost yet another key level since the November 22 attacks. The attacks that followed the Ukraine bombing of Russia in Nov 18.
A Russian collapse means a single thing: Nuclear holocaust, which is why it won't happen. And if it does, then money will be the last of your problems.
A long here with a tp at 0.9060 and 0.9534 was a free trade I gave on other platforms. A long for the Ruble if the current 0.95 level holds can lead to higher targets in the mentioned dates. It would be both a smart and morally correct thing to do, in order to fight in GME style those reckless speculators.
Life for 100+ RUB for 1 USDPlease note that life for the majority of RF residents will begin in the new year with an incredible increase in the price of the dollar. The ruble is very weak, in addition to all this strengthening of the ruble will decrease in February 2025. At the moment 60% of export profits go to the strengthening of the ruble, from February this value will fall to 20%. Get ready!
Horban Brothers.
Trump-Putin Ukraine Deal: Impacts on Forex
Hello, I am Professional Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about an important news that is shaking up the global markets: Donald Trump has apparently reached an agreement with Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine, with an agreement that includes Ukraine's exit from NATO. The historic meeting between the two leaders will take place in Saudi Arabia and this move is expected to have a profound impact on the global geopolitical and financial landscape, especially on the Forex market.
Geopolitical and Economic Impact:
The announcement of a possible agreement between Trump and Putin could mark a significant turning point in the war in Ukraine. If Ukraine were to actually leave NATO, it would open a new phase of stability for the region, but at the same time it could create uncertainty on the geopolitical borders. This decision will directly affect the currency markets, in particular the currencies of the countries involved, the main European currencies and the US dollar.
In the current context, the war in Ukraine is one of the main causes of economic instability worldwide. Any end to hostilities could lead to a reduction in economic sanctions and a revival of trade flows between Russia, Europe and the United States. These changes will be closely monitored by traders, as any geopolitical fluctuations could affect the dynamics of currencies globally.
Implications for Forex:
A possible agreement between Trump and Putin could have a direct impact on Forex, especially on the following currencies:
Russian Ruble (RUB): A peace agreement would lead to a possible revaluation of the ruble. International sanctions against Russia could be gradually removed, boosting the Russian economy and supporting demand for the ruble in global markets.
Euro (EUR): Ukraine's exit from NATO could lead to greater stability for European countries involved in the conflict, but it could also reduce the risk associated with energy and military security. In the short term, the Euro could appreciate against riskier currencies, but the situation could vary depending on the political reactions in Europe.
US Dollar (USD): The dollar could react positively if the Trump-Putin deal is seen as a stabilization of international relations, but it will also depend on how the Federal Reserve responds to evolving economic conditions. A slowdown in the conflict could reduce the uncertainty that has pushed markets towards the dollar as a safe haven.
British Pound (GBP): The pound could benefit from a possible de-escalation of the crisis, but again, domestic political factors in the UK, such as its post-Brexit negotiations, will continue to influence the currency.
What to expect in the coming days:
News of the Trump-Putin meeting in Saudi Arabia will be watched closely by the markets. If the details of the deal are confirmed, we can expect an immediate reaction in the currency markets. Forex is likely to see increased volatility in the currency pairs tied to the nations involved, with shifts in capital flows that could reflect a new perception of risk or stability.
Conclusions:
In summary, the Trump-Putin deal could be a turning point in the war in Ukraine and have a significant impact on financial markets, especially Forex. Investors will need to carefully monitor geopolitical developments and prepare for possible currency fluctuations. With the end of hostilities, stability could return to favor some currencies, but the situation remains delicate and constantly evolving.
Long-term forecast for the pair of $USDRUBAggressive enough a long-term forecast for the pair $USDRUB.
90->70->105->80->165->105->135->23-35 (in perspective of 2027 year and further)
Does not constitute a recommendation.
#investing #stocks #idea #forecast #furoreggs
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Russian Ruble CRUSHED! Lost The War!Russian Ruble FX_IDC:USDRUB is getting destroyed! Russia with an economy half the size of California can never go up against 60% of the global GDP while killing off nearly 1 million able-bodied men out of their economy. Corruption is out of control, 35% of the economy is allocated to the war, not future investment.
Russia is suffering from Dutch Disease
As usual #MMT gets it wrong again! As highlighted.
So did the "sanctions don't work" crowd
Gap is clearly going to be filled! 1 USD is soon 160 RUBWe saw this momentarily at the beginning of this atrocious and uncalled for invasion into Ukraine by russians in 2022 February.
Right then russian central bank started to "fix" the situation, but You cannot keep putting makeup on a pig and call it priced cow! russian economy is collapsing due the soon 30% interest rate and in 2% unemployed workforce in a situation where You need couple of million qualified workers still. Not to mention all the GDP rise is coming from military companies and oil selling. That soon will end as the oil gets cheaper still when Trump comes to power in 2025!
I think in mid 2025, we can see the russian economy crash in spetacular way. I think USD/RUB aorund $250 is not a work of fiction anymore.
The Russian Ruble Collapses: Sanctions & ExportsFundamentals :
Russia's exports fell sharply after the invasion in 2022.
Russian trade surplus continues between exports and import has fallen in the last 18 months.
"...the limited number of potential buyers for Russian crude and refined products increased their bargaining power, allowing purchasers to demand greater discounts to the global market" (www.dallasfed.org).
"Russia’s export revenue from crude and refined products fell 30 percent from the first half of 2022 to the first half of 2023, while volumes were largely stable."
"Price discounts for crude oil will likely persist because of the bifurcation of buyers and the extended distance exports must travel to their destination. Piped gas volumes to Europe continue to remain low. While Russia aims to increase exports of natural gas to China, it will take many years to build new pipelines." (www.dallasfed.org)
"With measures targeting Russian exports likely to persist, the country’s balance of payments will remain under pressure, leading to continuing currency weakness ." (www.dallasfed.org)
Technicals :
Weekly and Daily HHHL
USD/RUB weekly retracement to 91 or 92 38% fib support
Weekly uHd developing
Projection:
USD/RUB will rise to 125 by February or March 2024.
Is Russia's Financial Fortress Built on Shifting Sands?The transformation of Russia's financial system has been nothing short of seismic. Once deeply integrated with global markets, Moscow's monetary landscape now finds itself in a state of radical reconfiguration, navigating the turbulent waters of international isolation. This shift carries profound implications, not just for Russia, but for the very foundations of the global financial order.
At the heart of this evolution lies the Russian Central Bank, whose Governor, Elvira Nabiullina, has found herself at the center of an unprecedented storm. Tasked with controlling inflation amid soaring interest rates, Nabiullina faces a growing chorus of dissent from Russia's business elite - a rare and significant development in a country where corporate voices have long remained muted. This internal conflict underscores the delicate balance the Central Bank must strike, as it seeks to stabilize the ruble and safeguard economic growth in the face of crippling Western sanctions.
Russia's financial system has demonstrated remarkable adaptability, forging new international partnerships and developing alternative payment mechanisms. Yet, these adaptations come at a cost, as increased transaction costs, reduced transparency, and limited access to global markets reshape the country's economic landscape. Consumer behavior, too, has evolved, with Russians increasingly turning to cash transactions and yuan-denominated assets, further signaling the shift away from traditional Western financial systems.
As Russia navigates this uncharted territory, the implications extend far beyond its borders. The reconfiguration of its financial architecture is shaping new models for sanctions resistance, the emergence of parallel banking networks, and a potential realignment of global currency trading patterns. The lessons learned from Russia's experience may well influence the future of international economic relationships, challenging long-held assumptions about the resilience of the global financial order.
USDRUB Massive bullish break-out delivering a strong rally.The USDRUB pair has made an aggressive bullish break-out since the week of September 16, as it broke above the 1-year Lower Highs trend-line (since October 09 2023). At the same time it broke above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), while sustaining a rebound off the 1W MA100 (green trend-line).
As we can see on this chart, when the pair historically breaks above similar Lower Highs trend-lines, it rallies to at least the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we expect to see at least 110.000 on the current rally.
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USDRUB: 20% yield, but it's a trap!It's too risky of a trade IMO. I can't imagine USDRUB trading at below current levels in 1-2 years. However, it would have to drop to 140 or worse in 2 years for you to be at a loss with a 20% yield, which would be a retest of previous highs. Sounds very plausible to me. I prefer to stay away and will dump RUB deposits later this year once they are unlocked.
USDRUB Sell opportunity at the top of the Channel Down.The USDUB pair is on the 2nd straight red candle following yesterday's strong rejection near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Down. At the same time, the 1D RSI almost broke above the overbought barrier (70.00), a level last visited on April 16 2024.
As a result, we believe that this is the start of the new Bearish Leg of the pattern. Our target is 81.200, representing a -13.49% decline (similar to the previous ones).
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USDRUB ~ 118After strong strengthening, the ruble again went looking for a bottom, which it does not have. At the moment of the high, near the top, the Central Bank of Erafia introduced a spread of about 30 rubles, so the top should be considered ~ 158
Taking into account that the correction started with an impulse, according to the Wave Theory this is only the first part of the zigzag called A.
The nearest reversal level is ~ 103
Strong reversal range ~ 114-118.
USDRUB Long-term bearish continuation confirmed.The USDRUB pair has confirmed the transition from a 2-year long-term bullish trend to a bearish one, after closing below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). The technical pattern that prevailed is a Channel Down, which last week almost touched the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), a level intact since February 06 2023, and instantly rebounded closing the 1W candle almost flat.
The last two times that the pair traded within a Channel Down pattern that hit the 1W MA100 was in 2021 and 2019 as shown on your chart. In both cases, the downtrend didn't stop on the 1W MA100 but extended to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), in 2019 it got hit, in 2021 almost.
As a result, we think this is the most optimal level to sell this pair again, and target 80.500 (just above the 1W MA200).
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