SB trade ideas
Higher supply forecast bearish for SUGARUSDInternational trading companies forecast an increase in Indian and Thailand sugar production. Rabobank estimates Indian sugar output will be 4.0 million tons higher at 31.7m tons in 2017-18. The estimate for Thai output was raised by 900,000 tons to 13.5m tons, and the forecast for European Union production in 2017-18 was upgraded by 400,000 tons to 20.9m tons. Rabobank also upgraded by 3.3m tons to 4.3m tons the sugar output surplus in 2018-19 in its first forecast for the world sugar supply and demand balance. Higher global supply is bearish for sugar price.
On the daily timeframe SUGARUSD is trading with negative bias after hitting ten-month high in the end of November.
The Donchian channel gives a neutral signal: it is flat.
The MACD indicator gives a bearish signal: it is below the signal line and the gap is widening.
I expect the bearish momentum will continue after the price closes below the lower Donchian bound at 0.1226. A price point below that level can be used as an entry point for a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above the upper Donchian bound at 0.1295. After placing the pending order the stop loss is to be moved to next fractal high. Thus, we are changing the profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (0.1295) without reaching the order (0.1226), we recommend cancelling the order: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.
Technical Analysis Summary
Position Sell
Sell stop Below 0.1226
Stop loss Above 0.1295
SUGAR USD
Good Doji formation forming with Support line.
Another reason is that, the low of <--- has been taken out with a long wick.
Which might be seen as big institutional player clearing stop losses that might
be placed around that area before moving the prices up for best entry.
Looking at better price entry for 1:2 min Risk reward.
Seems like this week is a commodity play
Sugar long preferedA Bigger Price range is obvious and we are just sitting on the bottom right on the support zone which could offer a nice long entry after a certain price action signals .
Something like a break n close through a h4 flip zone here would give me confidence and confirmation to enter a long position .
A break of the 200 ma would also be a nice sign for me that we see some action in direction north.
Sell Sugar. 40% move opportunity1. Sugar seems to be completing 4th wave of the down move.
2. 4th wave has (slightly running) flat structure.
3. It looks on the chart and in particular on MACD that last 4-5 weeks it is incapable to move significantly up from the bottom of the range. It seems ready to break down.
4. Previous month volume spike on big red candle also supports the idea of selling sugar.
5. 5th wave target should be about 0.61 of 1-3 waves move calculated from the top of wave, therefore it is about $0.082, ie it is ~40% move.
Head and shoulder sweet sugarHead and shoulder sweet sugar. Personally i am not taking this trade, but some people could be interested
Waiting for the final buy signalNew chart here, showing the .618 1st target if the upward trend begins here....13964, at rising resistance line
