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SWEDISH KRONA / EURO

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SEKEUR trade ideas

EURSEK - Sooner or later, but not yet.I think at some point it can become one of the next major EUR cross shorts. But not yet. It is still moving sideaway, with maybe some bearish bias now. Why do I put this chart on then? The reason is that if once it breaks the key support, it can start a massive bearish trend. The Key levels are still the same: 9,1440 - horizontal support below the Kumo and more importantly 9,10 - the long term uptrend line. Of course there is still possibility that the major uptrend may continue, but given the ECB's dovishness and the fact that the mkt is pretty short on SEK in general (mainly vs USD), the probability of a trend reversal is somehow increasing. Place your alerts, not to miss it! Anyway, I will call your attention in time, so if you keep on following me, you'll have the alert in time. :-)
Short
by Kumowizard
5
EURSEK - Get ready for...?... for a move. Direction is still unclear. Given the sufferring of the EUR I'd say we'll rather see a bearish breakout, but I am not yet sure. The good old advise is: wait until it happens! You may miss some of the early move, but you'll have a lot better risk-reward. Daily: It has been moving sideaway for about a month now! DMI-ADX is clueless, so is the Slow Stoch and MACD. At mom Price is trading in the Kumo. Tenkan, Kijun, and future Kumo components (Senkou A and B) all flat. It seems until there is no story in SEK, or until model portfolios start to see some macro, relative value or technical change, it can not breakout in any directions. For a strategic trend change, the lower support/resistance levels to watch are: 9,1400 and most importantly 9,1000. If the cross breaks below that it will have a nice open space to drop. Upper barrier is 9,2385 and 9,2975. 4 Hrs: Total trendless. Both Ichimoku setup and DMI-ADX shows a complete undecision. However we have lower highs and thus a decrasing triangle is forming, so we have slightly bigger chance for a break on the lower side at some point, but it can still take some time and some more swings within the tightenning range. Watch the barriers carefully!
by Kumowizard
EURSEK - daily entryWeekly chart is pointing up (see chart in the linked section), time to look for daily entries. This chart looks fantastic. A corrective double bottom with a divergence at a strong support area, while the weekly stands at value. It can't get much better than this. I'm looking to build up a position, and not to take one signle trade. As with all my position trades, I'm using a soft stop. Hopefully, Mr. Draghi won't make any dovish comments tommorow at Jackson Hole.
Long
by vlad.adrian
EURSEK - Daily bearish Kumo break may get confirmationActually so far rather the EURNOK bearish move has put some pressure on EURSEK too. But it's time to watch this pair for more closely as it has more room to accelerate, if it starts to live some independent life. I've been short for a while based on my previous idea (see link below), now I am thinking about to add. Daily: Price is touch below the Kumo, but it really needs to break this horizontal Kes Support to gain more power. And still there will be the 9,08 trendline to fight with. That has chance to block the move initially, but by then Price will be a lot below the Kumo, and any pull backs will be likely a good chance to watch for building a strategic short position. 4 Hrs: Bearish, but has been struggling a bit. Obviously 9,1450-9,1500 has to be cleared. There's some chance It will do it soon, the Kumo is thick enough above the Price. Watch the ADX if that can get momentum after the bearish DMI cross.
Short
by Kumowizard
1
EURSEK - Bearish Kumo break on 4 HrsDaily: Bullish trend got exhausted. ADX down sub 20. Price enterring Kumo, and Chikou Span is slowly coming below Price candles. Real bearish reversal would take place below 9,1450, bearish acceleration would come below 9,04. MACD bearish, Slow Stoch sell signal. 4 Hrs: Bearish DMI cross with ADX at 28. Price dips below recent Kumo and the bullish trendline. Tenkan/Kijun weak bearish cross. Chikou below Price. Go short in 9,1870 - 9,2150 area with 9,2525 stop. First tgt 9,10.
Short
by Kumowizard
2
EURSEK - Will it keep long term bullish trend or ... ?... will it trade in a wider range top? It is hard to tell now. In fact it is very hard to be bullish on EUR, and frankly speaking SEK has not strengthen any against Euro so far this year. I still believe later this year this can be one of the biggest and best reversal trades. But do not forget, you can not predict anything. Price goes where it wants to go. You can expect a reversal, but I think this is the biggest common mistake among traders (both private and professional ones), that quite some times they trade assumptions, early expectations and biases based on these. A recersal takes place, when indicators justify and confirm it really took place. That's all. And for this reason (besides several other reasons too) Ichimoku is a very useful system. For now you can trade EURSEK in two ways: A) You sell it ard this level (in 9,11 - 9,14 range), betting it is rather at range top. In this case you can put a quite tight stop on the short position at 9,1630. Target for the trade can be 9,04 - 9,06. Since the basic trend is still bullish, it is recommended to trade it only with 0,5 trade unit size. B) If you like longer term trades and try to go with the trend, then wait for the pull back, and go long closer to 9,00 handle. In this case I give you one advise! Do not place a limit buy order in advance, as you can burn your hands if you run into some sharp moves like the one that happened to EURNOK last week. Always place a price alert first touch above the level where you would start looking at long entry. Then if you have enough additional info, you can put on the position with a limit buy or with a stop buy entry. This way you can not run into a situation, when suddenly price clears all supports at once and prints that reversal, which I was writing above.
by Kumowizard
1
EURSEK - Maybe topped, maybe not, but worths to watchThis chart is really interesting and worth to put it on the radar from now. Actually SEK is a lagging ccy against EUR. It has not performed at all during the EUR selloff since mkt started to price ECB decisions and not even since ECB announced its decisions. Daily: Bearish DMI and slowly turning but still very low ADX / MACD bearish / Slow Stoch bearish. What is very interesting, that Ichimoku setup still looks bullish somehow. But is it really bullish? If you check the components closer, you can see that both Kijun Sen, Senkou A and Senkou B (the cloud upper and lower lines) are flat. Tenkan started to point down, and future Senkou lines started to converge. Chikou Span is also at Price and pointing down. The Kumo held as support six times, but now it seems price may penetrate it deeper. All in all I think these signs should ring the bell for the bulls. On 4 Hrs time frame we also see rather bearish signals (SMI, Slow Stoch, and Price below Kumo. On 4 Hrs chart price should break below the lower line of the triangle to stay bearish biased, and to be able to push price on the higher daily time frame down into the Kumo cloud. At mom it looks like EUSEK has a chance to test the bottom of the Kumo ard 8,9670. However that level might be a good support first together with the trend line. If you think EUR weakness will persist later this year, it really worths to watch this cross from now, as in case it manages to break below 8,95 at some point, it can become a really good strategic short.
Short
by Kumowizard
EURSEK - Signals of bull exhaustion?This post is rather an observation than a trade idea. While the trend and daily Ichimoku setup is massive bullish, I think these are tipical signals of a possible short term trend exhaustion, when one being long should think about taking partial profit: - Daily MACD turning down - Slow Stoch turning down - DI+ line crosses the ADX at high level - pin bars and kind of doji trading at long term key resistance There is some chance to see minimum a small pull back to 9,0640, or in case EUR will be generally under pressure, then a nice counter trend as well down to 8,99 - 9,00. No real short signals yet. Even if you think about top hunting here, watch lower (4 Hrs and 1 Hr) time frames and trade according to their signals.
by Kumowizard
12