NASDAQ - NVDA: NVIDIAStrong bullish trend in NASDAQ - NVDA.
Keep buying at CMP and do DCA till 130.
Start taking profits at 150.
NVDA01 trade ideas
Brace for the Hit in NVIDIAWe have experienced a nearly uncontested rise in the price of NVIDIA stock for over two years at the current movement(since October 2022), from which it has soared almost 15x what its price was at this bottom.
Now the key question is, can I identify a clear wave pattern? The answer is yes. We have a very clear five waves up in an impulse waveform. The completion of a 5-wave sequence precedes a move in the opposite direction. This being the case we should not be very far of from starting of the next corrective phase in the cycle. Usually wave four records their travel within the range of the previous wave four of one lesser degree. Previous wave 4 recorded its low near the 88-dollar mark. Thus we can have this as an initial target to look for although we do need to wait for a confirmation of prices moving down. For that I would like to see the prices creep below 137.60, and subsequently after taking out that level also move below 131.50. Once these two price targets get taken out we can add confidence to the view of this asset moving down to at least the 100 dollar level.
Which ever play you might be looking to take, either shorting the selloff or just biding your time for a buy at the end of this, exercise caution in your trading. If you do short always keep the highs as an absolute point of invalidation for the outlook.
NVDA Analysis: Momentum Play or Consolidation Phase?As of December 8, 2024, NVIDIA is trading at $141.92. Here’s a detailed analysis and trading strategy.
1. Fundamental Analysis: NVIDIA's Dominance in AI and GPUs
* Forward P/E Ratio: Approximately 29.5, reflecting a premium valuation indicative of strong growth expectations in AI, gaming, and data center markets.
* Expected EPS Growth: A projected 20% 5-year EPS growth, driven by rising AI adoption, autonomous vehicle technologies, and expanding cloud infrastructure.
* Expected Revenue Growth: Robust 18% 5-year CAGR, supported by leadership in GPUs and data center technology.
* Net Margins: 33.5%, demonstrating NVIDIA’s exceptional profitability, boosted by its high-margin GPU business.
Fundamental Rating: 9/10
NVIDIA is a market leader with strong growth potential, excellent profitability, and solid execution. Its valuation reflects these strengths but also leaves less room for margin of error.
2. Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Price Action
Support and Resistance Levels:
* Immediate Resistance: $152.87 (recent high and critical level for bullish continuation).
* Key Support: $132.14 (recent pullback zone and liquidity area).
* Major Support: $120.00 (historical demand zone and near the 200-day EMA).
Indicators:
* MACD: Bullish crossover in progress, but histogram suggests waning momentum.
* Moving Averages:
* 20-day EMA: Positioned at $138.50, providing short-term dynamic support.
* 50-day EMA: Positioned at $130.75, reinforcing a critical support zone.
Liquidity Zones & Order Blocks:
* Liquidity Zone: $132.14 to $138.50, where prior consolidation suggests buyer interest.
* Order Block: $125 to $132, highlighting a key accumulation area before the recent upward move.
3. Trading Plan: Playbook for Scalping and Swing Trades
Scalping Setup:
* Entry: Buy near $138.50 on pullbacks or on a breakout above $143 with strong volume.
* Target: $147.50 to $152.87 (resistance zone).
* Stop-Loss: $137 (below immediate support and 20-day EMA).
Swing Trading Setup:
* Entry: Accumulate near $132 for a longer-term play or wait for confirmation of a breakout above $152.87.
* Target: $160 to $170 for medium-term gains.
* Stop-Loss: Below $120 (key structural support).
4. Where NVDA Might Be Headed Next
NVIDIA is currently trading within a consolidation zone, with bullish momentum gradually returning. A breakout above $152.87 could lead to a retest of $160, while a failure to sustain above $132 might lead to further consolidation. Given its fundamental strength, any pullbacks should be seen as opportunities for accumulation by swing traders and investors.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor before trading.
Nvdia has a lot of selling pressure A straightforward summary of my observations: I’m focusing on the upper part of the green box, where buyers have consistently stepped in with strength. The most recent dip into this area occurred the day before Thanksgiving during a market sell-off.
Here’s a simplified list of factors that I believe will contribute to Nvidia underperforming its Mag 7 peers:
- Overstretched valuation, trading near all-time highs while competitors like AMD and Intel have seen significant declines.
-Ongoing supply chain issues and tariff-related pressures.
-Slowing growth in expansion and revenue.
-Google emerging as a strong competitor in AI-training chips, challenging Nvidia's TSU ambitions.
-A highly extended market overall, increasing the chances of profit-taking and weakened buyer momentum.
NVIDIA Analysis - Personal viewNVIDIA remains a leader in AI-driven markets, benefiting from demand for GPUs in data centers, gaming, and AI development. Its AI and machine-learning capabilities are shaping industries like autonomous vehicles and healthcare. However, valuation concerns and risks tied to macroeconomic shifts or supply chain vulnerabilities may pressure the stock.
Looking ahead to 2025, my personal target for NVIDIA lies between $200 and $250. This range reflects a cautious approach, factoring in potential earnings normalization, adjustments in investor sentiment, and the broader tech sector's resilience in an evolving economic environment.
*This is not financial advice.
NVIDIA appears to be approaching the completion of the fifth NVIDIA (NVDA) Chart Analysis
NVIDIA appears to be approaching the completion of the fifth subminuette wave within wave 3 (yellow). This aligns with a smaller impulsive wave structure, signaling a potential short-term peak in this cycle.
Expected Movements:
• Wave 4 Correction: After completing this fifth wave, a corrective wave 4 could emerge, retracing part of the recent bullish move. This correction would likely establish a base for the next rally.
• Grand Supercycle Wave III (Red): Following the wave 4 pullback, NVIDIA may restart a new cyclical 5-wave bull pattern within the grand supercycle wave III. This structure represents long-term bullish potential.
Key Levels to Monitor:
• Support and resistance levels during wave 4.
• The formation of wave 5 for potential continuation or divergence.
Nvidia Daily Log Scale ChartDecision time coming up for the mighty Nvidia...
Which way do you think this goes?
#recession #nvda #nvidia #nasdaq #bitcoin #ndx
$NVDA Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:NVDA Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis
Possible we already turning bearish if price go more upside then
Expecting price top around 156-165 and reject big time
Have you noticed Nvidia's Range? Waiting on a decision... The price continues to fluctuate, but not even the latest earnings report has been able to break out of this sideways channel (range) shown in the analysis.
Nvidia is a powerhouse when it comes to its earnings reports, and while the price does fluctuate, it hasn’t done so with the same aggressiveness seen in previous months.
At this point, we’re simply waiting for a decision—either wait for the price to break out of the channel, or, if you want to be more aggressive, look for the price to touch the demand zone to go long. You could do the opposite in the supply zone, but I don’t recommend it, as the overall structure remains bullish.
Thank you for supporting my analysis.
TRADE SAFE!
NVDA - Bullish Inverse Head & ShouldersSummary: NVDA is forming a bullish inverse head & shoulders on the longer timeframes. This trade and target are largely based on the larger pattern (4hr time frame), however the 1 hour time frame gives us a high quality entry on the break of 143.3 in the middle of the right shoulder so we don’t need to wait for a break of 146 for entries. Stop loss invalidating the trade would be break below 141.3.
P&L Assuming 143.3 Entry:
Gain: $6
Loss: $2
Risk v Reward: 3:1
Possible Contracts:
145C for 1/3/2025 (currently $4.40)
150C for 1/17/2025 (currently $4.60)
SMCI To Follow Nividias Path?Looking at the chart above, we can see on the right how Nvidia has been trading within a channel since its existence, until recently it seen a break above and a clear re-test and continuation from this level, setting new boundaries for their stock price as a result of AI developments.
We can also see on the left SMCI, who's chart looks very similar, having just broken an retested that same upper channel resistance level before continuing higher.
Lets have a look at why this may be the case:
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)
Focus: SMCI specializes in manufacturing high-performance servers and storage systems, including AI-optimized servers critical for mounting AI chips from companies like NVIDIA and AMD. They do not manufacture chips but complement chipmakers by enabling AI infrastructure development.
AI Expansion: SMCI has seen significant growth, with fiscal 2024 revenue reaching $14.94 billion (up 110% YoY). The company is leveraging partnerships with NVIDIA and AMD, tapping into the AI server market, which is projected to grow at an 18% CAGR until 2032.
Market Position: SMCI holds approximately 10% of the AI server market and aims to expand this to 17% in three years, driven by increasing demand for AI-powered hardware and systems.
Market Cap: Around $16 billion as of recent data. There’s significant growth potential as it rides the AI wave, potentially leading to valuations closer to NVIDIA’s over the long term, depending on market execution.
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
Focus: NVIDIA dominates the AI chip market with its GPUs, which power most AI applications, including training large language models. The company also ventures into software and data-center solutions.
Recent Growth: NVIDIA reported $26 billion in Q1 2024 revenue, up 262% YoY, with EPS growth of 461%. Its dominant market position allows it to maintain pricing power and capitalize on increasing AI infrastructure investments.
Market Cap: [/b ] NVIDIA’s market cap exceeds $1 trillion, reflecting its status as a cornerstone of the AI industry. Its control of the AI chip market gives it an edge in capturing future demand as global AI investments grow.
Comparison and Growth Outlook
Complementary Roles: SMCI and NVIDIA are not direct competitors but operate in synergistic niches—NVIDIA supplies the chips, and SMCI builds the servers to host them.
Growth Potential: NVIDIA benefits from its unmatched dominance in AI chip technology, while SMCI has room to grow within the AI server market. Analysts predict SMCI will grow faster proportionally, given its smaller base and increasing market share ambitions.
AI Opportunity: The AI hardware market, including servers and chips, is expected to surpass $84.9 billion by 2031. SMCI and NVIDIA are positioned to capture significant portions of this market.
Future Market Cap Projections
SMCI: If it scales its AI server market share and revenue effectively, its valuation could rise significantly, potentially exceeding $50 billion within a few years.
NVIDIA: Sustained leadership in AI chips could push its market cap further, perhaps toward $2 trillion in a bullish AI adoption scenario.
Both companies are critical to AI infrastructure development and are positioned to benefit from global AI investments, but NVIDIA's established dominance contrasts with SMCI's emerging growth trajectory. Each offers unique investment opportunities tailored to different risk and growth profiles
Minsky Moment for NVDA? I have a related post in which I've done most of the heavy lifting and proof of concepts (showing the real time implementation of the model on the SMCI bust) for this.
www.tradingview.com
This post's main purpose is just to have a post to specifically track the failure of the setup in NVDA or to update on the different stages of the model through the decline is we end up making the classic butterfly top.
The drop here would not only satisfy all the stages of the Minsky model, it would also complete the Elliot wave boom and bust posted at 500 in NVDA.
NVIDIA: All Fractal Patterns - You decide the directionPatterns create a framework for understanding market behavior, helping you organize chaotic price action into more predictable structures.
In this report I'm prepared to go through most Patterns I can spot across NVIDIA Chart to be able to interpret bigger emerging picture.
REGULARITIES
"Think not of what you see, but what it took to produce what you see." ~ Benoit Mandelbrot
Fractal Cyclicality
Sub-cycles are smaller composite cycles recurring within larger ones, showing periodic patterns of price oscillations that collectively shape the rhythm of the full cycle.
In NVIDIA's chart, these sub-cycles typically consist of three final peaks, each representing the market's effort to sustain bullish momentum while gradually approaching a point of inevitable bullish exhaustion.
The peak of the 3rd composite sub-cycle is critical decision-making period for bulls, indicating last chances for the profitable exit points before major trend reversals take hold.
Fractal Validation Through Scaling
This particular fractal, starting from 2015, caught my attention due to its consistency and proportional alignment with the current market cycle.
According to EW, fractal matches really well from 1 to 4 wave. The 5th wave, being too prolonged. Either it played out faster because oh higher frequency of reversals.
Assessing:
Expansion with observed part of pattern Final Peaks Scaled with derived top of cycle:
Another progression nicely curved that could match with smaller scale cycles as building blocks
Alignment with 1st systematic cycle:
This means that next single-cycled consolidation confirms bearish exhaustion by matching proportions within a cycle.
"Reactive" Patterns to after heavy drops, like this often contain compressed fractals with higher frequency or reversals.
Witnessing how even single-cycled bullish “consolidation after drop” contains undeformed proportions of fractal, at this point there is no need to look for another fractal.
This approach illustrates how dynamics of smaller cycle evolve into larger market movements, maintaining their core proportions across price and time scales.
The ability of these patterns to mirror both micro (next one) and macro (overall shape) levels indicates that the metrics defining these fractals are consistent and scalable across timeframes and price scales.
This scalability hints at a deeper, intrinsic market behavior rooted in fractal geometry. The fact that all patterns seem to "abide by each other's metrics" implies a self-referential system, where smaller cycles influence larger ones, and vice versa.
This aligns with the theory of self-similarity, a core principle of fractals, suggesting that markets are not random but governed by a structured, recursive mechanism.
Viewing the chart in logarithmic scale amplifies this universal quality, as it normalizes the exponential growth of markets and reveals the proportionality between fractal patterns.
Will do Fractal Mapping with Fibs in Part II
NVDA - finding an Exit on LongsIn this short piece, I present some visuals of my ideas on NASDAQ:NVDA targets.
If the chart patterns play well then my intention is to exit at around $183 to $193 and then catch the wave (4) low ideally at $146 , for the final push up in this sequence in to $210 or slightly higher for a final exit.
Viewed from the perspective of a weekly or monthly chart - NASDAQ:NVDA doesn't look complete at those higher levels, however, I suspect that the end in to the wave (5) around $210 will complete a multitude of larger wave degrees, thus start a much larger degree (wave 4) correction from that point.
**NVDA may be a strong barometer for the market peak on an intermediate scale. I will certainly consider this strongly.
Nvidia Forming Support For Move To $237That's it, Nvidia is forming obvious support at $140. The stage is set for the move up to $237.
Good Luck!
NVIDIA - Last stage of bull run In my previous post about NVIDIA couple of months back, I presented the Livermore Speculative chart, which illustrates how NVIDIA is poised for a parabolic move. After a consolidation period of 1-2 months, the upward momentum is about to begin.
I've also provided a long-term perspective on NVIDIA, indicating that we are on the verge of completing a significant wave. Based on the time cycle, I anticipate this will conclude between February and March 2025, with the upper end of the parallel channel projected to be in the range of 260-300. Please refer to the time cycles shown at the bottom of the chart. Following this period, we may enter a substantial correction that could last for several years.
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