NVDA19 trade ideas
$NVDA Breaks Out of Ascending Triangle – 140 Next?NVDA just broke and retested an ascending triangle on the 4H chart — a textbook bullish continuation pattern.
After plunging more than 40% from its highs, NVDA is now pressing higher, setting its sights on the $140 resistance zone — which also lines up closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the all-time high to the swing low at $86.
🟢 Bullish case: We’re seeing clean structure, breakout volume, and a successful retest of prior resistance as new support.
🔴 Bearish divergence: RSI is flashing a potential warning — price is climbing, but momentum is cooling off.
With earnings on the 28th and $140 looming above, this is a must-watch chart. NVDA was the media darling of 2023–2024, and now it’s quietly building steam while most aren’t paying attention.
Could we be setting up for a run back to all-time highs — while the herd sleeps?
📊 Watchlist this one. This move could impact the entire semiconductor sector. NASDAQ:NVDA
Short - NVDAPrice hits a strong resistance at $123, the purple line is the danger zone from the last tariff crash.
Trend: Expect a pull back short term before forming a higher low to enter to the upside.
Elliot Wave Strategy: Expect to finish wave 5.
Support line to enter put: $112
Put option expiration 5/23/25
PT 1:~109.50
PT 2: ~105.8
Potential Reversal Zone for NVDAThis chart of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) as of June 3, 2025, shows a technical analysis scenario forecasting a possible bearish reversal. The price action, zones, and arrows suggest a setup based on supply and demand zones.
Key Elements in the Chart:
🔴 Supply Zone (Resistance Area)
Location: Around $141.73 to ~$144
Observation: The price recently entered this red-shaded area, indicating strong historical resistance.
Implication: The area is expected to act as a ceiling, where sellers may overwhelm buyers, causing a reversal.
⚫ Price Reaction:
The chart shows price approaching and briefly piercing the supply zone, followed by a bearish candle or rejection (as indicated by the top arrow).
Arrows project a downward movement, suggesting bearish sentiment.
🟢 Demand Zone (Support Area)
Location: Approximately $114–$121
Observation: This green-shaded area acted as a base for a previous upward move.
Implication: It is likely to act as a strong support if the price drops significantly.
Projected Price Path:
Short-term reversal from the resistance zone (~$144).
Initial drop to mid $130s (likely a lower high or minor support).
Continuation to demand zone around $116, completing the projected bearish move.
Technical Interpretation:
This setup is a classic supply and demand reversal strategy.
Confirmation of the short setup may require:
A clear rejection candle at resistance.
Break of minor support levels on the way down.
Risk for bulls is high near resistance; short sellers may find opportunities targeting the demand zone.
Key Catalysts Driving Nvidia’s Stock Growth 2025 and BeyondKey Catalysts Driving Nvidia’s Stock Growth (Mid-2025 Onward)
Nvidia (NVDA) has solidified its position at the center of the AI computing boom, with record fiscal 2025 revenue of $130.5 billion (114% year-over-year growth) driven by surging demand for its AI chips. Looking ahead from mid-2025, multiple fundamental catalysts are expected to power further stock price growth. Below, we identify 10 primary forward-looking growth drivers for Nvidia, each ranked by expected impact (0 to 10) and analyzed with recent data, forecasts, and developments.
1. AI Chip Dominance – Strength: 10/10
Nvidia is the undisputed leader in accelerated AI hardware, commanding a dominant market share in data-center GPUs and AI chips. Its GPUs have become the backbone of modern AI – Nvidia “holds the pole position” in the AI ecosystem, with industry estimates showing it controls over 90% of the data-center AI processor market. This chip supremacy gives Nvidia tremendous pricing power and a virtuous cycle: more developers adopt its CUDA platform and hardware, further reinforcing its lead. As advanced AI models grow ever more complex, Nvidia’s top-of-the-line silicon (from the current Blackwell GPUs to upcoming architectures) remains the default choice for training and deploying cutting-edge AI, positioning the company to capture the lion’s share of the AI revolution.
2. Explosive Data Center AI Demand – Strength: 10/10
Skyrocketing demand from cloud giants and enterprise data centers for AI compute is a core growth engine for Nvidia. The company’s data-center segment has experienced exponential growth – in calendar 2023, Nvidia’s data center revenue surged by 409%– as hyperscalers raced to build out AI infrastructure for large-scale training and inference. This upward trend is expected to continue into 2025 as companies pour capital into AI-driven services. Notably, tech titans like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google have collectively pledged over $300 billion in 2025 AI-related capex, reflecting no slowdown in spending on AI servers.
Nvidia directly benefits, as its high-end GPUs (e.g. H100 and Blackwell) are heavily deployed for these AI workloads. In its latest quarter, Nvidia reported data center revenue of $39.1 billion (up 73% year-on-year – an astonishing run-rate driven by relentless orders from cloud providers. With customers reportedly maintaining or increasing their 2025 AI infrastructure plans, data-center demand remains an unparalleled catalyst for Nvidia’s growth over the next several years.
3. Mainstream AI Adoption Across Industries – Strength: 9/10
AI is rapidly becoming ubiquitous in business processes and consumer applications, translating to broad-based demand for Nvidia’s technology beyond the hyperscalers. “AI has gone mainstream and it’s being integrated into every application,” CEO Jensen Huang noted – from logistics and e-commerce to healthcare and finance, organizations are embedding AI to gain efficiency and insights. This everyday AI usage sustains high growth for Nvidia as enterprises large and small invest in AI capabilities, often via cloud services powered by Nvidia GPUs. The company is banking on this pervasive adoption (“AI…in delivery services everywhere, shopping services everywhere”) to drive continued revenue expansion.
Crucially, as AI moves into normal operations – such as automated customer service, supply chain optimization, and data analytics – demand shifts from one-off experimental projects to ongoing, scaled deployments. This creates a steady, secular tailwind for Nvidia’s AI platforms (both hardware and software) across virtually every industry. Analysts expect Nvidia’s revenue to keep rising at a healthy clip (UBS projects ~$147 billion by 2026, up from ~$27 billion in 2023f) precisely because AI adoption is broadening into a long-term, multi-industry growth cycle. In short, the “AI everywhere” era means sustained demand for Nvidia’s solutions well beyond the tech sector.
4. Strategic Partnerships & Alliances – Strength: 8/10
Nvidia has forged high-impact partnerships across tech, industry, and even nations, which amplify its market reach and create new revenue streams. Robust alliances with virtually all major technology players are central to Nvidia’s strategy, enabling it to deliver solutions at massive scale. For example, Nvidia expanded collaborations with cloud providers and enterprise software firms: Snowflake now integrates Nvidia’s full-stack AI platform to help customers build AI applications in the Data Cloud, and ServiceNow is co-developing enterprise AI agents with Nvidia’s tools to transform business workflows.
These deals embed Nvidia’s AI technology into popular platforms, driving indirect adoption of its chips and software. On the global stage, Nvidia is also partnering with governments and sovereign investment funds to supply AI infrastructure. In May 2025, Nvidia announced a major partnership with Saudi Arabia’s AI firm Humain (backed by the Saudi Public Investment Fund) to build out national AI infrastructure. In the first phase, Humain will purchase 18,000 of Nvidia’s advanced Grace Blackwell AI superchips for new Saudi data centers. Such large-scale deals not only yield immediate chip sales but also cement Nvidia’s position as the go-to provider for strategic AI projects. Overall, by teaming up with influential cloud vendors, software companies, automakers, and governments, Nvidia is seeding long-term growth opportunities far beyond what it could achieve alone.
5. Automotive & Autonomous Systems – Strength: 8/10
Nvidia’s push into automotive AI is expected to become a significant growth driver as the auto industry evolves toward self-driving, electrification, and software-defined vehicles. Nvidia’s automotive segment – which provides AI chips and software (Drive platform) for driver assistance and autonomous driving – grew 27% year-over-year recently and is considered the company’s next billion-dollar business line. The pipeline is robust: more than 25 vehicle makers (including EV leaders BYD, NIO, Lucid and stalwarts like Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, Jaguar Land Rover) have adopted the NVIDIA DRIVE system-on-chip for their next-generation cars. Starting in 2025, all new Jaguar Land Rover models will be built on Nvidia’s Drive AI platform (from cloud training to in-car chips), and Mercedes is rolling out Nvidia-powered “Hyperion” AI computers in its 2024 models.
These design wins translate to multi-year revenue streams in hardware and software (through NVIDIA’s DRIVE OS and AI cockpit software). As vehicles become “computers on wheels” requiring sophisticated AI for perception and decision-making, Nvidia is uniquely positioned with its automotive-grade Orin/Atlan chips and full software stack. Additionally, Nvidia’s technology is expanding into robotaxis, trucking, and autonomous industrial machines, tapping markets beyond passenger cars. While automotive AI revenue is smaller today than data center, its growth trajectory (with a design-win pipeline exceeding $11 billion over 6 years makes it a strong catalyst moving forward – effectively adding a new vertical to Nvidia’s growth profile as self-driving capabilities proliferate.
6. Expanding Software Ecosystem & Platforms – Strength: 9/10
A critical (and often underappreciated) driver of Nvidia’s success is its full-stack software ecosystem, which greatly extends its reach and creates a sticky moat around its hardware. Nvidia has spent years developing software frameworks, libraries, and tools (from the CUDA programming platform to AI frameworks like TensorRT and NVIDIA AI Enterprise) that are custom-built for its chipsets. This tight integration means anyone building AI, HPC, or graphics applications can leverage Nvidia’s optimized software to get superior performance – but in doing so, they become tied into Nvidia’s platform. For example, CUDA has become the de facto standard for GPU computing, with countless applications and machine learning models written for Nvidia GPUs.
The result is a virtuous ecosystem: over 4 million developers now work with Nvidia’s SDKs, and the company continually updates its software (e.g. CUDA Toolkit, cuDNN, Triton inference server) to support new AI breakthroughs. Beyond enabling hardware sales, software is becoming a direct revenue stream. The NVIDIA AI Enterprise suite – a cloud-native AI software platform dubbed the “operating system for enterprise AI”– is sold via licenses and subscriptions to corporations deploying AI. Likewise, Nvidia’s DGX Cloud offering provides its AI infrastructure “as-a-service” via cloud partners, contributing to nearly $1 billion in annual recurring revenue already. By expanding its software stack and services, Nvidia not only locks in customers, but also moves up the value chain. This software-centric strategy is a powerful catalyst: it boosts margins, fosters customer loyalty, and opens Nvidia to growth beyond chip sales – for instance, through AI cloud services, enterprise support contracts, and developer platform fees – all of which support a higher long-term valuation.
7. Omniverse and Digital Twin Leadership – Strength: 7/10
Nvidia is spearheading the use of AI and graphics in simulation, positioning its Omniverse platform as the standard for industrial metaverse applications and digital twins. Omniverse is a real-time 3D simulation and collaboration platform that enables companies to create virtual worlds – “digital twins” of products, factories, cities, and even data centers – with physical accuracy. This initiative is forward-looking and strategic: it drives demand for Nvidia’s professional GPUs and AI software as more industries embrace simulation for design, engineering, and operations. Recent developments underscore Omniverse’s momentum: at GTC 2025, Nvidia announced an expansion of Omniverse with major partners like Ansys, Siemens, SAP, and Schneider Electric integrating it into their solutions to build smarter factories, robots and AI-driven facilities.
In other words, leading industrial software providers are embedding Nvidia’s metaverse platform to help enterprise customers digitize their operations. The Omniverse allows engineers to visualize complex systems and test scenarios virtually – for example, designing a gigawatt-scale AI data center in simulation (including cooling and electrical systems) before building it in reality. Automakers use Omniverse to simulate autonomous driving; architects create virtual building models; manufacturers test production line changes in a risk-free virtual space. As this “industrial metaverse” trend grows, Nvidia’s early lead could yield a new ecosystem (and revenue source) of Omniverse software subscriptions, cloud services, and associated hardware sales. While still emerging, the platform’s potential is significant – it extends Nvidia’s reach into every field that uses simulation or 3D design, leveraging its core strengths in graphics and AI. In the coming years, Omniverse-driven demand for GPUs (for rendering and physics simulation) and software could become a notable catalyst augmenting Nvidia’s more mature segments.
8. Continuous Innovation and Product Roadmap – Strength: 9/10
Nvidia’s planned GPU hardware roadmap through 2027 (Ampere/Hopper to Blackwell to Rubin architectures) demonstrates its aggressive cycle of innovation, with each generation delivering major leaps in AI performance.
A key reason Nvidia maintains its edge is relentless R&D yielding regular leaps in performance – a pipeline of new GPUs and systems that keep customers upgrading. The company’s roadmap beyond mid-2025 is packed with heavyweight launches. Its current flagship data-center GPU family, Blackwell, only ramped production in early 2025, yet Nvidia is already preparing the next architecture, codenamed “Rubin,” for 2026. CEO Jensen Huang has affirmed that Blackwell Ultra GPUs (a mid-cycle upgrade with faster memory and networking) will debut in late 2025, followed by the next-generation Rubin GPU platform shortly thereafter. Partners are “getting up to speed” on Rubin, which is expected to provide a “huge step up” in AI capability. In fact, Nvidia has outlined a cadence of major launches every even year (2024 Hopper → 2026 Rubin → 2028 Feynman, etc.), with incremental updates on odd years. This rapid pace matters for the stock: each new generation spurs a replacement cycle as cloud firms, enterprises, and supercomputing centers upgrade to unlock higher efficiency.
For instance, the Blackwell-based systems offer up to 1.5× the performance of the prior Hopper chips, and Rubin is expected to jump even further, enabling more advanced AI models (critical as the industry chases artificial general intelligence). Nvidia’s ability to consistently deliver order-of-magnitude improvements – e.g. through more memory (HBM4E), faster interconnects, and specialized AI cores – encourages customers to expand their Nvidia-powered infrastructure. In turn, it deters competitors who struggle to match Nvidia’s R&D breadth. This continuous innovation cycle ensures that as AI workloads grow, Nvidia will have the cutting-edge products ready – keeping demand (and revenue growth) on an upward trajectory.
9. Full-Stack Expansion (CPUs, DPUs & Networking) – Strength: 8/10
Nvidia is evolving from a pure GPU vendor into a full-stack data center platform provider, expanding into CPUs, networking, and data processing units (DPUs). This strategic broadening of its product portfolio substantially increases Nvidia’s addressable market and lets it capture more value per system. Notably, Nvidia’s homegrown CPU (central processor), codenamed Grace, began shipping to customers in 2024–2025. Grace is a high-performance Arm-based CPU designed to pair tightly with Nvidia GPUs, capable of handling enormous data flows between chips – a crucial advantage for AI and HPC workloads. By offering its own CPU, Nvidia can sell complete server platforms (CPU+GPU) and optimize the whole system for AI. Jensen Huang highlighted that integrating GPUs with CPUs can boost computing speeds by 100× while only tripling power usage, underscoring the efficiency gains of Nvidia’s full-stack approach.
Alongside CPUs, Nvidia has invested in networking and interconnects (acquiring Mellanox in 2020) and now leads in ultra-fast data center networks. Its latest Spectrum-X switches and ConnectX/BlueField SmartNICs (DPUs) are built to alleviate data bottlenecks in AI supercomputers. Industry analysts predict rapid growth in this DPU/SmartNIC space (a ~$5.5 billion market by 2031), and Nvidia is well positioned to dominate it with BlueField. By selling DPUs and switches alongside GPUs, Nvidia ensures that AI clusters can scale out efficiently, which is a key selling point for cloud providers. Importantly, these moves encroach on traditional CPU and networking incumbents – every Nvidia Grace CPU or BlueField DPU sold potentially displaces a competitor’s chip, consolidating more of the data center stack under Nvidia. The full-stack strategy thus acts as a force-multiplier for growth: Nvidia can address virtually every component of AI infrastructure, from processing to networking to storage acceleration. As customers increasingly prefer integrated solutions, Nvidia’s ability to provide the “entire package” drives incremental revenue and strengthens its competitive moat in the AI infrastructure market.
10. Global AI Infrastructure & New Markets – Strength: 8/10
Nvidia’s growth is set to benefit from international expansion and a wave of government-driven AI infrastructure investments. Around mid-2025, export policies began to favor Nvidia’s business, widening its reachable market. The U.S. Commerce Department’s rollback of certain AI chip export rules in May 2025 removed restrictions on which countries Nvidia can sell advanced AI chips to, easing a headwind that had weighed on the stock earlier. This policy shift, coupled with surging interest in AI globally, has unlocked huge orders from new regions. For instance, the Middle East is emerging as a major AI hub: the United Arab Emirates reached a preliminary agreement with the U.S. to import up to 500,000 of Nvidia’s high-end AI chips per year starting in 2025 – a massive volume aimed at making the Gulf a “third AI power center” alongside the US and China. Similarly, Saudi Arabia has announced plans to invest hundreds of billions in tech and is buying a TON of Nvidia chips for its own “AI factories” as part of a $600 billion investment pledge in U.S. and AI infrastructure.
These moves reflect a broader “sovereign AI” trend: governments and enterprises worldwide are building domestic AI supercomputers (for national security, research, or competitive advantage) – and Nvidia is the go-to supplier for the requisite hardware. Additionally, markets like India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America are ramping up cloud data center builds and AI initiatives, representing new growth frontiers for Nvidia’s datacenter GPUs. Even in China – despite ongoing export controls – Nvidia has navigated restrictions by offering modified chips (like the A800/H800) to continue serving demand. Altogether, the global arms race in AI computing acts as a tailwind for Nvidia: it guarantees a steady stream of orders from across the world. With geopolitical allies now explicitly allowed (and eager) to procure Nvidia’s top chips, the company stands to fill the AI compute gap globally, driving revenue growth beyond the traditional U.S. customer base. In summary, expanding international markets and large-scale AI infrastructure projects are a catalyst that could propel Nvidia’s next phase of growth.
Sources: The analysis above incorporates information from recent Nvidia financial reports, press releases, and expert commentary, including Nvidia’s FY2025 earnings, CEO Jensen Huang’s statements on AI demand, analyst insights on spending and growth forecasts, and news of key deals and policy changes affecting Nvidia. These catalysts underscore Nvidia’s unique positioning at the intersection of AI hardware, software, and global adoption, suggesting that from mid-2025 onward, the company has multiple powerful growth drivers supporting its stock’s long-term trajectory.
NVDA 6/3 $143 CallsPrice has been going in an uptrend so just continuing the trend.
Price broke above Mondays high and retested during premarket this morning on tuesday
Entry and confirmation was during market open because it closed in a hammer candlestick indicating a continuation to the upside.
Target was 141 a respected key level
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NVIDIA: Is Wall Street's AI Darling Still a Good Investment?When you hear the name NVIDIA, what comes to mind?
Chances are, you're thinking of gaming graphics cards, or perhaps the explosive rise of Artificial Intelligence. And you're not wrong — NVIDIA powers everything from ChatGPT to Tesla's self-driving tech. But behind all the hype, there's a more important question serious investors should ask:
“Is NVIDIA still a smart investment at this price?”
As a value investor who combines deep fundamental analysis with AI-powered tools, I’m going to walk you through a comprehensive breakdown of NVIDIA from a true value lens — one that strips away the hype and reveals the numbers that actually matter.
Whether you're a beginner trying to learn how to value stocks or a seasoned investor looking for clarity, this guide will change the way you think about investing in companies like NVDA.
Let’s dive in.
🧩 First: What Even Is NVIDIA?
To understand whether NVIDIA is a good buy, you first need to understand what it actually does — and why it’s considered one of the most powerful companies of our time.
👇 TL;DR – NVIDIA in 3 Sentences:
💲It builds the GPUs (Graphics Processing Units) that power video games, AI models like ChatGPT, and high-performance computing in data centers.
💲It dominates the AI infrastructure market, which is growing faster than nearly any other tech vertical.
💲It's now worth over $3 trillion, making it one of the most valuable companies in human history.
NVIDIA has become the "picks and shovels" of the AI gold rush. But just because a company is great… doesn’t mean it’s a great investment at any price.
🧠 Understanding Value: What Makes a Stock Undervalued or Overvalued?
Before we dive into numbers, let’s get one thing straight:
Value investing is not about buying cheap stocks. It’s about buying great businesses for less than they’re worth.
To determine whether NVIDIA is undervalued, I ran it through six professional-grade valuation models and created a weighted average fair value, factoring in both upside potential and risk.
These models include:
✅ Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
✅ Price-to-Earnings Multiples
✅ PEG Ratios
✅ Graham Formula
✅ Dividend Discount Model
✅ Forward Earnings Forecasts
Sound complicated? It is. But I’ll walk you through every step — in plain English.
💵 Market Snapshot (as of June 2, 2025)
Current Stock Price: $137.38
Consensus Price Target (from analysts): $171.62
My Fair Value Estimate (weighted model): $152.83
Upside Potential: ~11% conservatively, up to 27% if analyst targets are correct
📊 Let’s Break Down the Valuation Models — One by One
1️⃣ Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
Think of this like saying:
“If I owned the entire company, how much cash would it make me in the future — and what is that worth today?”
Assumptions:
Revenue grows at 5% annually (very conservative)
We use a 10% discount rate (standard)
Future cash flows are modeled out 10 years
📈 Fair Value from DCF: $140.00
2️⃣ P/E Multiples (Price-to-Earnings)
This method compares NVIDIA’s earnings to its price — kind of like asking, “How many dollars do I pay for each $1 in profit?”
The S&P 500’s average P/E is ~20–25. NVIDIA’s is higher because it’s a growth company.
📈 Fair Value from P/E: $160.00
Based on applying an industry-adjusted multiple
3️⃣ Forward P/E Valuation
Instead of looking backward at past earnings, this looks forward at projected earnings.
If a company is growing fast, this method often shows better value.
📈 Fair Value from Forward P/E: $150.00
4️⃣ Graham Formula (Ben Graham’s Classic Approach)
Ben Graham, Warren Buffett’s mentor, created this formula to calculate intrinsic value based on growth and earnings. You can read about Graham's formular here
We applied very conservative growth assumptions to avoid overestimating.
📈 Fair Value from Graham Formula: $145.00
5️⃣ PEG Ratio (Price/Earnings/Growth)
This tells us if the company’s price is justified based on how fast it’s growing. A PEG of 1.0 is considered fairly valued.
📈 NVIDIA PEG Ratio: 0.98
📈 Fair Value Estimate: $155.00
👉 Translation: It’s priced just right for its explosive growth
6️⃣ Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
This is only useful for mature companies that pay dividends. NVIDIA reinvests most of its profits, so this model gives a low valuation.
📉 Fair Value from DDM: $130.00
But we’ll only weight this lightly, since the dividend is tiny.
📊 Final Verdict: Average Fair Value = $152.83 (weighted by models)
Current price = $137.38
Undervalued by ~11% under conservative modeling
⚖️ How I Weighed the Models (And Why It Matters)
Not every valuation model should be treated equally. Some are better suited for mature, dividend-paying companies. Others shine when analyzing high-growth innovators like NVIDIA. That’s why I didn’t just average all six models — I assigned weights based on relevance and reliability for this specific company.
Here’s the logic behind each one:
🔹 Discounted Cash Flow (20%)
NVIDIA generates massive free cash flow and has excellent visibility into future earnings — which makes DCF one of the most grounded ways to assess its intrinsic value.
🔹 Price-to-Earnings Multiple (20%)
With strong profits and high margins, NVIDIA deserves comparison against peers in the semiconductor space. The P/E model helps anchor valuation in current profitability.
🔹 Forward P/E (10%)
Because NVIDIA is growing rapidly, it's important to consider how the market is pricing in future earnings. However, since forward estimates can be speculative, I assigned it a lighter weight.
🔹 Graham Formula (20%)
This classic value investing formula focuses on earnings and growth with a built-in margin of safety. It’s perfect for assessing quality businesses like NVIDIA using conservative assumptions.
🔹 PEG Ratio (15%)
NVIDIA is growing earnings at a blistering pace. The PEG ratio adjusts the P/E multiple based on growth, giving us a powerful signal of whether the stock is expensive or not — especially for growth companies.
🔹 Dividend Discount Model (15%)
Although NVIDIA pays a small dividend, it's not central to its investment case. I included the DDM for completeness, but gave it the lowest weighting because the company reinvests most of its profits into growth, not shareholder payouts.
By applying these weights, I wasn’t just looking for a single “right” answer — I was building a balanced, multi-lens perspective on fair value. The result? A composite intrinsic value of $152.83, backed by a methodology that respects both fundamentals and growth dynamics.
Now let’s zoom out and look at bigger signals of strength.
📚 Book Value Growth: The Hidden Gem Most People Miss
Let’s talk about something almost every retail investor overlooks — Book Value Per Share (BVPS).
Think of BVPS as the company’s “net worth per share.” It’s the raw value of what shareholders would receive if NVIDIA liquidated all its assets and paid off its debts. While most growth investors are obsessed with flashy revenue numbers and AI headlines, I always take time to peek under the hood — and what I found with NVIDIA is quietly impressive.
Over the past five years, NVIDIA has steadily built shareholder value. In 2020, its book value per share sat at just $5.00. But by 2024, it had grown to $12.50. That’s not a fluke — it’s a 20% compounded annual growth rate. That’s the kind of consistent, behind-the-scenes compounding that Warren Buffett dreams about.
Looking ahead, if that same growth trend continues, we could see BVPS hit around $31.00 by 2029. Apply a reasonable price-to-book multiple, and you’re staring at a potential valuation of $341.00 per share — a full 2.5x from today’s levels.
🔹 This isn’t hype. It’s quiet, compounding strength.
🔹 It’s what great businesses do while the world’s distracted by headlines.
🔍 The Metrics That Matter
Metrics are just numbers — until you know what they actually mean. Here’s how I interpret NVIDIA’s financial DNA.
🔹 P/E Ratio at 44.31 — Yes, it’s high. But when you’re growing earnings 40% per year, that multiple starts to make sense. Growth is expensive — but NVIDIA is earning its premium.
🔹 Forward P/E at 28.33 — This reflects what investors are willing to pay based on projected future earnings. It signals that Wall Street still sees upside.
🔹 Return on Equity (ROE) at 106.92% — That’s not a typo. NVIDIA is generating more than double its net income for every dollar of shareholder equity. This is an elite business, deploying capital like few others.
🔹 Debt-to-Equity Ratio at 0.50 — Leverage is low, which means less risk. NVIDIA isn’t overextending itself, even as it scales aggressively.
🔹 Earnings Growth of 40% over 5 years — Very few large-cap companies are compounding at this rate. This is what separates a fast mover from a long-term compounder.
🔹 Free Cash Flow of $30B — Cash is king. And NVIDIA is sitting on a throne. This level of liquidity gives them options — to reinvest, acquire, or return capital to shareholders.
These aren’t just stats to admire. They’re signals — and they all point in one direction: strength.
📰 What’s Happening Right Now?
In the short term, NVIDIA has had some turbulence, but its fundamentals remain rock-solid. Here's what’s shaping its current narrative:
🔹 Record-breaking Q1 Revenue: $44.1 billion — up 69% year-over-year. Yes, you read that right. That kind of acceleration is unheard of at this scale.
🔹 The Blackwell Era Begins: Their new generation of chips is designed for “reasoning AI,” setting the stage for a whole new wave of demand.
🔹 Geopolitical Friction: Export controls and restrictions on China are projected to cost NVIDIA roughly $8 billion in lost sales. That’s real. But it’s also being offset by explosive growth in other global markets.
🔹 Inventory Write-Down: A $4.5 billion hit due to inventory adjustments. It's a short-term bruise, not a structural fracture.
🔹 Still Crushing Expectations: Even with these headwinds, NVIDIA continues to beat estimates and outperform peers.
This is what execution looks like under pressure. The headlines might look shaky — but the engine is still roaring.
📈 Technicals: What Do the Charts Say?
Even if you're a fundamentals-first investor like me, it pays to respect the chart. Momentum reflects psychology — and right now, sentiment is riding high.
🔹 Key support level at $130 — buyers step in here consistently.
🔹 Resistance zones at $143 and $150 — breaking above these could trigger further momentum.
🔹 50-day moving average at $135 — the stock is trading above this line, suggesting strength.
🔹 Golden Cross + Bull Flag — classic technical signals of an uptrend continuation. Bulls are still in control.
When price action and fundamentals align — that’s when conviction turns into action.
🧠 Bottom Line: Should You Buy NVIDIA?
Let’s get honest.
NVIDIA is not a value trap. It’s a compounder — a business with the financials, growth, and market position to continue dominating for years.
Is it risky? Yes. All growth stories are.
But the data doesn’t lie:
✅ Strong balance sheet
✅ Massive cash flow
✅ Global AI leadership
✅ Undervalued by multiple models
Even conservative valuation models suggest NVIDIA is trading below its true worth.
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NVIDIA: 4H Golden Cross starting new Channel Up Leg.NVIDIA is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 65.736, MACD = 5.860, ADX = 49.646) as it has established and maintained a Channel Up since its April bottom. The completion of a 4H Golden Cross has validated the start of the pattern's new bullish wave. The previous one topped at +30.58%. With the price already rebounding, we are bullish, aiming for a new HH (TP = 169.00).
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NVDA Waiting for the Right DipAfter posting record earnings and riding the AI momentum wave, NVIDIA has finally started to cool off a bit and honestly, it’s healthy. The stock had a massive run, and now we’re seeing some consolidation, which could set up the next solid entry for those of us who didn’t chase the highs.
Here’s how I’m planning to approach it:
📍 Entry levels I’m watching:
Around $130 if we see a quick bounce off that zone.
If it dips further, I’m eyeing the $125–$118 area—lots of previous interest there.
And if things get really spicy, $112-108 would be a gift level for a strong entry.
🎯 Profit targets on the bounce:
$140 – First take profit, solid and realistic.
$145 – Next key level where sellers could show up.
$150 – Full recovery and possible breakout if momentum kicks back in.
I’m not in a rush to jump in. Let it come to the levels, confirm the move, and then ride it up. NVDA remains a beast long-term, but short-term patience pays.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice—just sharing my personal trading game plan. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
NVDA Hits the Ceiling – Breakout or Bull Trap?NVIDIA is charging into a massive resistance wall with fading momentum and no volume punch—either it explodes through $150 or this rally dies at the top.
Technical Breakdown – NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)
1. Price Action – Into the Fire
NVDA is retesting its all-time high zone ($135–$150), which previously rejected multiple times. This yellow/red zone is a congestion and distribution range — classic bear battleground. Each push into this area has ended in selling pressure — so buyers need real power to break it this time.
2. MACD – Bullish, But Flattening
MACD crossed bullish in early May, driving this run. However, momentum is now flattening out — a sign that follow-through is weakening. Histogram bars are shrinking → momentum is fading, not building.
3. RSI – Bullish but Tiring
RSI peaked near 70 and is now at 63.06 — momentum rolled off just as price hit resistance. This sets up a bearish divergence risk: if price breaks higher and RSI makes a lower high, that’s a classic top signal. For now, RSI is still constructive, but losing steam.
4. Volume – No Climax Yet
Volume is not exploding on this push into resistance — suggests this is not a conviction breakout (yet). Prior breakouts came with clear volume surges; without that, we could see a failed breakout / bull trap.
5. Contextual Read – High Expectations
Sentiment around NVDA is extremely bullish with AI mania in full gear. But that’s exactly when tops form — when everyone’s already in, there are no marginal buyers left. The $135–$150 zone is where smart money sells to latecomers if there's no catalyst to push higher.
Conclusion – NVDA at a Probable Inflection Point
NVIDIA is at major resistance with waning momentum and no volume confirmation — the burden of proof is on the bulls.
Unless:
We get a decisive close above $150 on surging volume
MACD extends bullish
RSI holds above 60
This looks like a sell zone, not a buy zone.
NVDA Just Broke Structure – Bounce or Breakdown Incoming?📊 NVDA GEX Daily (Options Sentiment Overview)
NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) closed at $135.13, down nearly 3% on Friday, and has now pulled back from the gamma resistance cluster between 140–145. GEX sentiment is cooling, and the chart shows we just lost the HVL (High Volume Level) around 137.5, putting bulls in a tricky spot.
GEX Levels to Know:
* 🟢 Positive gamma stack at 140 → 145 → 150, with 143.9 as the next key magnet IF price recovers.
* 🟥 Heavy dealer put interest below 134 → 130 → 125; GEX sharply negative down there.
* 🧊 IVR 10.2 = super cheap options → ideal setup for directional trades using debit spreads.
💡 Options Strategy:
* Bullish: If NVDA reclaims 137.5, play for bounce back to 140–143. Look at Jul 19 140c or 137.5/145c spread.
* Bearish: If it fails to reclaim 135 and breaks 133.25, play toward 130–131. Look at Jul 19 132p/125p vertical.
Dealers may flip short under 133, increasing the chance of acceleration if support breaks.
🕵️♂️ 1H Chart Breakdown (Swing/Intraday View)
The 1-hour chart tells a clear story: NVDA broke short-term structure with CHoCH and BOS under 135, and is now channeling downward with a falling wedge-type pattern. The SMC supply at 143–145 held strong.
Key Notes:
* ⚠️ Breakdown from rising structure, now forming new bearish channel.
* 🟩 Short-term CHoCH support near 133.25 is key — if lost, opens 130 fast.
* 🟣 Momentum + RSI screaming overbought → likely a lower high if it bounces to 138 area.
📈 Swing Setup:
* Short bias while under 137.5.
* Entry: rejection near 136–137
* Target: 133.2, then 130.4
* Bull case only resumes if we reclaim 138 clean → invalidates the breakdown.
📊 Intraday Playbook:
* Short bounce into 136.25–137.5 (previous BOS zone).
* Long scalp bounce off 133.25, but only for short-term risk-controlled play.
Bias = Bearish unless 137.5 is reclaimed. Don’t fight the momentum.
🧠 Final Thoughts
NVDA has shifted from leader to potential drag — at least near term. The structure is broken, and GEX is aligning with downside momentum. IV is cheap, making this a great week for defined-risk option plays, whether you’re looking to fade pops or scalp breakdowns.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
TSLA Weekly Options Outlook — June 1, 2025📉 TSLA Weekly Options Outlook — June 1, 2025
🚨 AI Consensus: Bearish Momentum Ahead of June 6 Expiry
🧠 Summary of AI Model Signals
🔹 Grok (xAI)
Technicals: Below EMAs, RSI deeply oversold (26.95), MACD bearish.
Sentiment: VIX steady, max pain at $340 implies downside.
Trade: Buy $340P @ $8.25 → Target $9.08 (+10%) / Stop $6.60 (−20%)
Confidence: 65%
🔹 Claude (Anthropic)
Technicals: Bearish EMAs/MACD, volume spike on red bars.
Sentiment: Negative sales buzz, falling VIX, max pain $340.
Trade: Buy $340P @ $8.20 → Target +50–100% / Stop $5.74
Confidence: 72%
🔹 Llama (Meta)
Technicals: Bearish M5 EMA stack; support at $345 zone.
Trade: Buy $342.5P @ $9.40 → Target +20% / Stop −50%
Confidence: 70%
🔹 Gemini (Google)
Technicals: Strong bearish momentum, RSI oversold.
Trade: Buy $305P @ $0.95 → Target $1.90 / Stop $0.47 (Day trade)
Confidence: 75%
🔹 DeepSeek
Technicals: Breakdown in progress, momentum fading.
Sentiment: Weak China/Europe news; max pain support at $340.
Trade: Buy $340P @ $8.25 → Target $12.38 (+50%) / Stop $5.78
Confidence: 70%
✅ Consensus Takeaways
🔻 Bearish technical setup on all timeframes
🔄 Max Pain at $340 = potential price magnet
📉 Strong directional momentum + oversold RSI across models
📆 Preferred strategy: Buy weekly naked puts, enter Monday open
🎯 Recommended Trade Setup
💡 Strategy: Bearish Single-Leg Weekly Put
📈 Ticker: TSLA
🔀 Direction: PUT (SHORT)
🎯 Strike: $340
💵 Entry Price: $8.25
🎯 Target: $9.08 (+10%)
🛑 Stop: $6.60 (−20%)
📏 Size: 1 Contract
📆 Expiry: 2025-06-06
⏰ Entry: At Market Open
📊 Confidence: 70%
⚠️ Key Risks to Watch
📉 RSI is oversold — potential for a short-term bounce
🕒 Time decay accelerates midweek — don’t hold too long
🚀 Unexpected bullish catalyst (e.g., SpaceX PR, macro rally)
💵 Liquidity fine (4.4k OI), but wide spreads in fast markets
📊 TRADE DETAILS (JSON)
json
Copy
Edit
{
"instrument": "TSLA",
"direction": "put",
"strike": 340.0,
"expiry": "2025-06-06",
"confidence": 0.70,
"profit_target": 9.08,
"stop_loss": 6.60,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 8.25,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-06-02 09:30:00 UTC-04:00"
}
NVDA Weekly Options Outlook — June 1, 2025📉 NVDA Weekly Options Outlook — June 1, 2025
🚨 AI Model Consensus: Lean Bearish Into 6/6 Expiry
🧠 Model Breakdown
🔹 Grok (xAI)
Bias: Short-term bullish (above 10/50 EMA on M5), but below 200 EMA.
Indicators: RSI ~63, MACD weakening on daily.
Sentiment: Falling VIX + AI buzz, but $133 max pain caps upside.
Trade: Buy $141C @ ~$0.94 → Target +50%, SL 50%
Confidence: 70%
🔹 Claude (Anthropic)
Bias: Slightly bullish.
Indicators: Price above 10EMA, below 200EMA; MACD weak, RSI neutral.
Sentiment: Call/put OI split, max pain $133.
Trade: Buy $140C @ $0.96 → Target +55–75%, SL $0.50
Confidence: 72%
🔹 Gemini (Google)
Bias: Bearish.
Indicators: Bearish MACD crossover; upper Bollinger rejection.
Sentiment: Positive news priced in.
Trade: Buy $128P @ $0.73 → Target +75–100%, SL 50%
Confidence: 65%
🔹 Llama (Meta)
Bias: Moderately bearish.
Indicators: MACD fading; under EMAs on M5.
Trade: Buy $133P → Target +50%, SL above $136.35
Confidence: 70%
🔹 DeepSeek
Bias: Bearish.
Indicators: MACD bearish crossover; momentum fading.
Trade: Buy $132P @ $1.65 → Target +100%, SL 50%
Confidence: 65%
✅ Consensus Takeaways
🎯 Max Pain: $133 is the focal level across all models.
🟢 VIX down; sentiment positive, but momentum fading.
📉 Daily MACD across models turning bearish.
⚠️ Bullish calls (Grok/Claude) vs. bearish puts (Gemini/Llama/DeepSeek).
🔍 Recommended Trade This Week
💡 Bearish Play: NVDA Weekly Put (Exp: 2025-06-06)
💵 Entry: $1.66
🎯 Target: $2.49 (+50%)
🛑 Stop: $0.83 (−50%)
🔢 Size: 1 contract
⏰ Entry Timing: Market open (Monday)
📈 Confidence: 65%
⚠️ Risks to Watch
🚀 AI catalyst could reverse thesis and rally price fast
⏳ Time decay will eat premium—move needed early
🕳️ Opening gaps could get filled fast—use limit orders
🔄 Max pain ≠ magnetic level—watch price action around $133 closely
📊 TRADE DETAILS (JSON)
json
Copy
Edit
{
"instrument": "NVDA",
"direction": "put",
"strike": 132.0,
"expiry": "2025-06-06",
"confidence": 0.65,
"profit_target": 2.49,
"stop_loss": 0.83,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 1.66,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-06-02 09:30:00 UTC-04:00"
}
NVDA Trade Idea – Weekly Structure Opening for 385-Day Cycle 🕒 Weekly Pattern Outlook
NVDA is believed to be entering a new structural phase within a 385-day cycle, with the $129–$135 range acting as a potential entry zone. This zone allows risk management through a stop loss if the bullish structure fails to materialize.
📊 Volume/Float Ratio & Market Sentiment
Vol/Float Ratio: 1.45% – weak, but not bearish.
Market is leaning bullish, not bearish, despite current sideways consolidation.
This weakness may be caused by retail hesitation, waiting for macro news or market reaction before entering.
📈 Technical View (TA):
On the daily timeframe, NVDA is currently retesting previous zones.
A short-term drop followed by a bounce is highly probable — which could lead to a breakout targeting $153.
High-probability scenario: NVDA reaches $191 within the next 31 days if structure holds and volatility increases.
⚠️ Gap & Momentum Considerations:
Current Gap % = 1.45% → indicates low volatility and neutral/bullish sideways phase.
If Gaps expand to 100–200%, expect explosive movement and breakout behavior.
For now, the sideways structure dominates, not a bear trend.
💡 Trading Strategy:
Avoid buyer strategy for now due to weak volatility.
Option sellers (premium collectors) will benefit more in current conditions.
If you're trading positionally, set a trailing stop loss to manage risk in case of a false breakout or pullback.
Disclaimer:
This trade idea is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk. Always use capital you can afford to lose and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NVIDIA Nvidia Stock Correlation with 10-Year Bond Yields, Bond Prices, and Interest Rates
1. Correlation with Bond Yields and Interest Rates
10-Year Bond Yields: Nvidia’s stock (NVDA) has shown mixed sensitivity to bond yields. Rising yields (e.g., 30-year yields surpassing 5% in May 2025) historically pressured tech stocks by increasing discount rates for future earnings. However, Nvidia’s AI-driven growth narrative has partially offset this, as seen in its 69% YoY revenue surge in Q1 2025 despite bond market volatility.
Interest Rates: The Fed’s rate cut expectations (priced for September 2024 and beyond) have supported risk assets like Nvidia. Lower rates reduce borrowing costs for AI infrastructure investments, indirectly benefiting NVDA.
2. Factors Driving Revenue Growth in 2025
AI Infrastructure Spending:
Cloud providers (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) invested $50B+ in Q2 2025 on AI infrastructure, with Nvidia capturing 70–95% of the AI chip market.
Data center revenue hit $39.1B in Q1 2025 (+142% YoY), driven by demand for Hopper and Blackwell GPUs.
Blackwell GPU Launch:
The Blackwell GB200 GPU, offering 30x faster AI inference, is projected to generate $45B+ in FY2025 revenue as production scales.
Market Share Expansion:
Nvidia’s semiconductor market share tripled since 2020 to 7.3%, overtaking Intel and Samsung in key segments.
3. Upcoming Challenges
Export Restrictions in China:
Export controls cost Nvidia $8B in Q1 2025 revenue and could erase $15B annually if unresolved. The H20 chip’s limited performance further strains China-market competitiveness.
Competition and Market Saturation:
AMD and Intel are accelerating AI chip development, while cloud providers design in-house alternatives (e.g., Google’s TPU).
Valuation and Volatility:
NVDA’s 30% stock correction in July 2024 highlighted sensitivity to AI spending concerns. Analysts warn of “exuberance fatigue” as earnings growth slows from triple-digit to 45% YoY.
Macro Risks:
Rising Treasury yields (e.g., 10-year at 4.54%) and federal debt concerns ($36T) could divert capital from tech to bonds.
Summary Table
Factor Impact on Nvidia Stock (NVDA) Source Citations
10-Year Yield ↑ Mixed (pressure from discount rates vs. AI growth)
Interest Rate Cuts Positive (supports tech spending)
AI Spending Major revenue driver ($115B data center sales)
China Export Curbs $8B–$15B annual revenue risk
Competition Threatens market share (AMD, in-house chips)
Nvidia's stock (NVDA) currently shows a mixed correlation with 10-year US Treasury bond yields amid recent market shifts. While rising bond yields typically pressure high-growth tech stocks like Nvidia by increasing discount rates on future earnings, Nvidia’s strong earnings and dominant position in AI hardware have helped it partially decouple from this trend.
Recent Data: Nvidia’s stock price is around $135 (down ~3% on the day), reflecting some volatility after a strong rally earlier in 2025 fueled by stellar AI-driven revenue growth.
Bond Yields Context: The US 10-year Treasury yield recently hovered near 4.49% to 4.54%, with 30-year yields surpassing 5% amid fiscal concerns. Rising yields generally increase borrowing costs and discount future earnings, which can weigh on Nvidia’s valuation.
Market Reaction: Despite higher yields, Nvidia’s shares rallied after strong earnings and optimistic guidance, suggesting investor confidence in its AI growth story offsets some bond market pressure.
Volatility and Risks: The stock remains sensitive to macroeconomic factors such as rising yields, trade tensions, and export restrictions impacting China sales. Nvidia’s price movements often reflect the balance between its growth prospects and broader market risk sentiment influenced by bond yields.
In summary, Nvidia’s stock and bond yields currently exhibit a partial inverse correlation, but Nvidia’s unique growth drivers in AI technology have softened the typical negative impact of rising yields on its stock price. Investors continue to watch bond yield trends closely, as sustained increases could cap further gains or increase volatility in Nvidia shares.
Conclusion
Nvidia’s stock remains buoyed by AI demand and Fed rate cut optimism but faces headwinds from bond yield volatility, China restrictions, and competition. While its $44.1B Q1 2025 revenue underscores dominance, sustaining growth requires navigating export rules and proving Blackwell’s long-term profitability. Investors should monitor bond market shifts and AI spending trends for directional cues.
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