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SGDJPY trade ideas

SGDJPY Short: A change of Original IdeaThis was my recent projection for SGDJPY: I had thought that it could go to 83. However, I would like to change my idea now and I'll tell you why. Firstly, the new Big Picture (4 hourly): I think I may need to explain why I count my waves this way. So let's start from the first corrective up wave W-X-Y in green. Previously I had labelled it as 1-2-3-4-5, even though that was clearly wrong because of the overlap between wave 4 and wave 1. What you are seeing as W is actually a 5-3-5 with the last "5" as an ending diagonal. X is an expanded flat and Y is well, a 5 waves up. The next X is quite clear as a 3-waves and the Z is also clear as a 5. Next we talk about the Fibonacci extension for the 1-2-3-4-5 after Z. Why did I do this? The main reason is because the Fibonacci Extension Tool only goes up to 4.236x. I need to know if there is a Fibonacci relationship between wave 1 and the entire wave structure. Thus, after measuring wave 1, I extend the wave from the bottom of wave 1. It matches exactly, giving me the confidence that the entire down trend belongs to a single wave of a higher degree. Next, we talk about the corrective wave W-X-Y. I had wanted to classify it as A-B-C-D-E originally. But that will be looking at the tree and missing the forest. Put it simply, if the next wave down of a higher degree is supposed to be huge and a continuation of a wave of a 2-higher degree (continuation of the first 1-2-3-4-5 in blue on the left most of the screen), then we cannot label the last corrective structure as a potential triangle because we are expecting a wave 3 instead of a wave C. For the uninitiated, a 3-3-3-3-3 triangle in Elliott Wave context is always the last corrective move before a final impulse move, thus it can only appear in wave B, X, or 4. Now that the reasons on how I labelled the waves are out of the way, it should be clear that SGDJPY is now a short. Add to the fact that the current price level is actually a Support and Resistance Zone for this cross (see the number of turning points in the purple shaded box). More recent times, it actually turned the currency pair thrice (counting this time). The risk-reward on shorting this pair should now be clear. Place your stop above the resistance zone.
Short
by sngyuchao
SGD/JPY 1H Chart: Pair restricted by 82.80The Singapore Dollar has been gradually appreciating against the Japanese Yen since it bounced off the senior channel circa 79.75 mid-March. The latest wave up in this junior pattern began on May 29. The pair should have tested its upper boundary today; however, the strong resistance by the monthly R1 at 82.80 has halted any attempts to reach the given channel this week. This might point to a change in sentiment, thus resulting in a fall within the following session. If the 55-period (4H), 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the 38.20% Fibo retracement are breached near 82.40, the Singapore Dollar is most likely to decline and target either the 100– and 200-period (4H) SMAs or the monthly PP at 82.00 and 81.50, respectively. Conversely, the rate moving above 82.80 should be followed by a slight surge until 83.50 prior to making a bearish reversal.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
SGD/JPY 1H Chart: Singapore Dollar bullishThe SGD/JPY exchange rate is moving in an eight month descending channel. The pair tested its bottom boundary near 79.60 late in March prior to reversing its sentiment and reaching the other boundary last week. Strong upside risks prevailed in the market on May, thus sending the pair 1.5% lower within a couple of hours. As a result of this plunge, the Singapore Dollar breached a two-month trend-line at 82.00 and has since fallen even lower. Technical indicators demonstrate that the pair might still move slightly lower until 80.00 in the short term, but it should pick up momentum within the following week and begin a medium-term appreciation. The pair faces a strong resistance level formed by the monthly and weekly PPs and the 200-hour SMA at 82.00. The Singapore Dollar is likely to hinder near this area for a while, but it should afterwards pick up momentum and target 85.00.
by UnknownUnicorn890690