CNH2026 trade ideas
China A50 Index is ready for a huge moveThe China Index A50 holds huge potential for a massive trade.
The white fork projects the most likely direction the price will take. What supports this long idea is the fact that the market changed its downward behavior when it broke through the trend barrier on September 2, 2024.
The expected pullback has manifested right before our eyes, so we are now at a point that offers us a wonderful long entry.
Stimulus Hopes Test Downtrend Resistance as Bulls Eye BreakoutChinese policymakers have unveiled another round of measures aimed at boosting sentiment and valuations in mainland stock markets, pushing insurers and state pension funds to increase future allocations.
Who knows whether it will work—the headlines are essentially recycled with a bit of extra detail. Previous stimulus attempts have also fizzled fast, as the price action over the past six months shows. But the announcement is timely, providing a catalyst to spark a bullish breakout.
A50 futures sit at an interesting juncture, sandwiched between downtrend resistance dating back to October’s stimulus euphoria and the critical 200-day moving average.
The price has already taken a couple of looks above the downtrend only to reverse back lower, including earlier Thursday after the details of the plan were released.
However, given the risk state funds may be ordered to buy to drum up excitement among retail investors, it will be interesting to see whether we see a rally into the close.
If we do and the price closes above the downtrend, one setup to consider would be to buy targeting 13200/50-day moving average, 13727, or even the double-top of 14366 set late last year.
Depending on your target and risk tolerance, a stop could be placed beneath the downtrend or 200-day moving average for protection.
Momentum indicators have turned bullish, potentially improving the probability of a breakout sticking.
Good luck!
DS
This China A50 bounce could have legsThe China A50 futures market topped in October after a near 50% surge in just three weeks. Yet as price action since appears to have been corrective, I'm seeking evidence that its retracement has ended. And that is why Tuesday's bounce from the 200-day SMA has grabbed my attention.
MS
China A50 stages major bullish breakout to key technical level Chinese stocks are going vertical in response to the swathe of stimulus measures announced before the market open. China’s A50 Index is no exception, staging a bullish breakout to an import level we can use to build setups around.
The break of the downtrend and 50DMA looks significant on the back of big volumes, seeing futures retest the 200DMA. With MACD and RSI (14) generating bullish signals on momentum, there could be more gains to come.
But let the price action tell you what to do.
If we get a clean break above the 200DMA, consider going long targeting a move back towards horizontal resistance at 12352. Ideally, it would be nice to see a retest and bounce off the 200DMA following the break to bolster the case for upside. A stop could then be placed below the 200DMA for protection.
Alternatively, if the price is unable to break the 200DMA convincingly, consider selling with a stop above the level for protection. Downside targets include the former downtrend and support at 11375.
Given the measures announced today and proximity to Golden Week holidays, the bias is to buy dips or breaks near-term given the possibility of further state support.
Good luck!
DS
A50 rips higher on mortgage rumours, downtrend under threatMedia reports suggest Chinese authorities are considering allowing homeowners to refinance up to $5.4 trillion in mortgages at significantly lower interest rates, providing the type of circuit-breaker that could boost consumption and reverse the downturn in the property sector. While it’s not the first time we’ve seen speculation over measures to boost flagging economic growth, for now, Chinese stocks are flying.
China A50 futures are threatening to break the downtrend they’ve been sitting in since the latter parts of May, staging a dramatic turnaround on Friday after closing at multi-week lows on Thursday. As the chart shows, a break of the downtrend could be significant for a market that has tended to trend nicely once a technical turning point has occurred.
Should we see futures break and close above 11900, a horizontal resistance level just above the downtrend where the 50 and 200-day moving averages are also found, consider buying the break with a stop below either level for protection. The obvious trade target would be 12352, a level that has acted as support and resistance earlier this year.
You could also flip the trade should futures be unable to break higher, selling below the trendline with a stop above for protection.
Good luck!
DS
China A50 stalemate nears potential breaking pointLooking at A50 on the daily, you can see the index has been stuck in a downtrend since the middle of May, with only brief countertrend rallies interrupting the broader move lower. The index looks to be in another right now, grinding higher after bottoming in early August. However, the price has been rejected multiple times at the 200-day moving average, including this week, seeing it drift back to test channel support.
Given the limited distance between the two levels, and proximity of downtrend resistance that now intersects with the 200DMA, it feels like we’ll get some resolution on medium-term directional risks at some stage this week. From a momentum perspective, RSI (14) and MACD continue to generate bullish signals on momentum, marginally favouring upside over downside.
My preference would be to wait for a break in either direction before entering trades.
If the price manages to break through the 200DMA and uptrend, traders could initiate longs above the former resistance zone with a tight stop below for protection. Possible targets include 12,000 or 12,352. Alternatively, if channel support breaks, you could sell below with a stop above for protection. Targets include 11,638, 11450 or 11,375.
Good luck!
DS
China A50: Potential swing trade longThe China A50 rose over 20% from it January low to earn its 'technical bull market' status. Yet prices couldn't quite reach 13k before embarking on a -7% retracement over the next four weeks. Yet with it showing early signs of stability above support zones, perhaps a swing low is near - if not in place already.
The daily chart shows a bullish engulfing candle on high volume, which respected the 38.2% Fibonacci level and 12k handle. The engulfing day also closed back above the monthly S1 pivot point.
Bulls could seek dips within the engulfing day's range with a stop beneath its low, or 12k for a more conservative entry. 12.5k or the monthly pivot point make an appealing upside target for bulls.
Hold it or visit the lowsOnce again pretty important level on the Chinese market. If the price can hold this level we could expect a rally to the top of the triangle, otherwise if it loses it, we will probably visit the lows. NFA
Decisive moment for A50 We are getting closer to a decisive moment for A50. Hold the box and run back to 13.4k-13.5k or lose it and go down to 12.6k. No trade zone now, wait for breakdown or breakup. NFA.
Rebound after retesting the top of descending triangle? Previous H&S idea was invalidated, the price went testing the top of the descending triangle and seems to find some bid there. If we can rally from here we could visit again the range 14'750-15'000. If the price closes back below the triangle look for bearish continuation.
Watch out China A shares Price has tested support and rebounded on the descending triangle which was also the 200 SMA. I am expecting the price to raise from here and complete a possible right shoulder (neck at 14.3k). This could lead to a powerful breakout.
NFA.
Entanglement and WavesThe A50 daily chart level wave count is currently facing the correction of the first yellow wave and the fourth green wave.
Entanglement and WavesA5 weekly chart level wave count: the white fourth wave WXY double three waves end. At present, the white fifth wave is yellow 12345 waves. When the yellow fourth wave of the next sub wave is corrected, wait to step back to pick up more
A50 ready to test 15k To celebrate the new year, here some TA on the China A50 index:
The breakout of the descending triangle led to a powerful rally that is still in full place and will most likely bring us to 15k. The golden cross (50 SMA crossing 200 SMA from below) could be the fuel to propel us there. 15k represents a major resistance, if broken on the first attempt (unlikely), it will bring us to Valhalla.
Most likely we will get a retracement and form a nice shoulder for an inverse head&shoulders formation (bullish pattern). From there we will start to raise and visit the moon once the neck (likely 15k) is broken.
DGSTACC: CN1! MACRO ANALYSIS / CHANNEL CONFIRMATION & SUPPORTIn the chart above we are taking a look at CN1! in the 16 hour timeframe.
1. CN1! reaching an end to pennant formation in vital channel support.
2. Previous pennant breaks in current channel level has been bullish in the past.
3. Important to break past 13300 Supply Ceiling .
4. Channel deviation of 500 points .
5. Channel Above = 13800 - 13300 , Current Channel = 13300 - 12800 , Channel Below = 12800 - 12300.
CN1!HELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT CN1! is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated..
I thing that the sellers from this area will be defend this SHORT position..
and when the price come back to this area, strong sellers will be push down the market again..
DOWNTREND + SUPPORT from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this short trade..
IF you like my work please like and follow thanks
CN50 WeeklyPublishing this chart to track the Chines A50 futures along with all my other tracks.
In my opinion we are headed to the 9800-10700 range before this is all over.
If the chinese housing implosion is as bad as many expect, this goes back to 7500 in the next 6-10 months.
For reference, look at these charts:
NASDAQ China Real Estate index
China Mainland Real Estate Index
entanglement and wavesA50 white second wave correction has a high probability of ending, and the third white wave is optimistic in the later stage. From the perspective of entanglement, the current center + A intraday chart has closed the bottom type, MACD golden fork, waiting for an upward stroke to leave the center, looking forward to getting out White b segment market.
A Warning of Things to Come?The China a50 is under the weekly 50 SMA and near the 200 weekly SMA. The SPX500 isn't even at the 50 weekly SMA. Usually world markets, eventually, follow each other.
The China A50 Could Be a Big Warning SignThe China A50 has been underperforming for a year. if these trendlines are breached, you could see a quick 1000 point fall. This would spook other world markets.
Cn1!lets see if we get the trend change watching pull back for higher low support and big ass red volume stick to confirm if it holds... that would make a higher low and super bullish.
