US stock market = a bull marketWhenever the market makes a retracement, it is time to buy. This is the way the stock market has been acting for the last years. 'This is an artificial market', "We will repeat 2008", 'P/E ratios are too high' and all that nonsense pushed this market higher and higher.
Oversold readings of Force Index have made perfect entries in this bull market. The arrows pointing at the volume waves are telling the same story. What should have been bearish changes in behavior, were actually large selling efforts without any gains.
The impulse is green again, and at this point, one should look only at the long side of this market.
D07 trade ideas
DIA - Diamonds could be a traders best friendOnly looking for the bullish swings. Preferably this heads back to the trend line/support line between 170-174. Still bullish until proven otherwise. Most of the notes are on the chart. Oscillators are headed lower from being overbought. RSI is headed lower faster than stochastics and MACD. ADX is headed higher agreeing with the downswing. BB aren't really playing a part right now.
Side note, hopefully the stops your in place on all other trades because yesterday was a long day.
Leave a note below. Comments and critiques ARE welcome and appreciated.
DOW ETF: Wedge closes; we renew our shortWe shorted too soon (Friday last, 7 Nov) and our Stop-Loss Order took us out. Now we observe the wedge closing, a strong indication that the securiy will plunge at last. We renew our short accordingly, looking for several percentage points of profit, and placing a Trailing Stop at 1% rebound.
REPUBLISHING JAN 9, 2014 DJIA DIA FORECAST - untouched"""""
2014 Forecast:
The market has not built enough time up here to sustain a long term rally. But with more time at lower levels then accumulation can develop and the bull market can continue. However, from current levels the market is not on sturdy ground. The market is stretched up at 165 and support is down at 149 and implies a downside risk of 10%. The time of the last consolidation was 12 weeks and we are in the 12th week of the rally. So, time has run out. Since the market has needed 20 weeks of accumulation before each previous rally, it is bearish to me that it only took 12 weeks in this latest accumulation.
The factors driving the market until now have been clear (stock buybacks, earnings growth, Fed driven low interest rates, equity fund inflows), but we are ahead of rational long term valuations and I would not recommend committing new funds to this market.
I think this year will be at best a sideways to down year as investors still have very few choices on where to invest and stocks will be a focus, primarily because money has flowed into equities and out of bonds and corporations have repurchased stock and issued debt. Corporate leverage is up. Margin buying is at record levels. Investors are optimistic again. Analysts seem unanimous in forecasting higher prices.
This is a great time to do the opposite and walk away.
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I also republished this at the highs this summer to point out that I felt we had 10% down potential going into year end.
DJIA ETF -DIA -Daily -August Options Expiry Was Today's LowI normally watch only the SPY (SP500 SPDR ETF) for options expiration key levels, but I thought I'd check the DIA and see how it looked and here it is.
Lately too, the volume on the downside since mid-July has swamped the buying days. So, either people are shorting DIA against their portfolios on down days to hedge (like the good old days) or this is just an observation.
You can see now that 169 is a key resistance area just overhead. If we see 169, I'll be selling and looking for 166 and change to cover, then will look for 164.5, then 164.0.
Cheers.
Tim 11:05PM EST 10/2/2014
****IMMINENT STOCK MARKET CRASH AT HAND??????******STRANGE******I have not one clue about why this market is behaving the way it is right now . . . The exponential moving averages and the simple moving averages on the DIA suggest that the market is very bullish. MOREOVER, if one takes a look at the ADX indicator, the RSI indicator, the Stochastics indicator, and the MACD indicator, all of these indicators suggest a pullback on a Daily chart. HOWEVER, although the indicators suggest a pullback, strangely enough they tell a different story on a weekly chart. MOREOVER, on a weekly chart the indicators display massive divergence in this market that has been building up for SEVERAL MONTHS!! Furthermore, now that the month of October and November are quickly approaching, then perhaps one would need to consider some precaution, for it may be possible that this weekly scale divergence may unfold during the coming months . . .
****IMMINENT STOCK MARKET CRASH AT HAND??????******STRANGE******I have not one clue about why this market is behaving the way it is right now . . . The exponential moving averages and the simple moving averages on the DIA suggest that the market is very bullish. MOREOVER, if one takes a look at the ADX indicator, the RSI indicator, the Stochastics indicator, and the MACD indicator, all of these indicators suggest a pullback on a Daily chart. HOWEVER, although the indicators suggest a pullback, strangely enough they tell a different story on a weekly chart. MOREOVER, on a weekly chart the indicators display massive divergence in this market that has been building up for SEVERAL MONTHS!! Furthermore, now that the month of October and November are quickly approaching, then perhaps one would need to consider some precaution, for it may be possible that this weekly scale divergence may unfold during the coming months . . .