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D07 trade ideas

DIA - Diamonds could be a traders best friendOnly looking for the bullish swings. Preferably this heads back to the trend line/support line between 170-174. Still bullish until proven otherwise. Most of the notes are on the chart. Oscillators are headed lower from being overbought. RSI is headed lower faster than stochastics and MACD. ADX is headed higher agreeing with the downswing. BB aren't really playing a part right now. Side note, hopefully the stops your in place on all other trades because yesterday was a long day. Leave a note below. Comments and critiques ARE welcome and appreciated.
AMEX:DIALong
by Therealaleech
REPUBLISHING JAN 9, 2014 DJIA DIA FORECAST - untouched""""" 2014 Forecast: The market has not built enough time up here to sustain a long term rally. But with more time at lower levels then accumulation can develop and the bull market can continue. However, from current levels the market is not on sturdy ground. The market is stretched up at 165 and support is down at 149 and implies a downside risk of 10%. The time of the last consolidation was 12 weeks and we are in the 12th week of the rally. So, time has run out. Since the market has needed 20 weeks of accumulation before each previous rally, it is bearish to me that it only took 12 weeks in this latest accumulation. The factors driving the market until now have been clear (stock buybacks, earnings growth, Fed driven low interest rates, equity fund inflows), but we are ahead of rational long term valuations and I would not recommend committing new funds to this market. I think this year will be at best a sideways to down year as investors still have very few choices on where to invest and stocks will be a focus, primarily because money has flowed into equities and out of bonds and corporations have repurchased stock and issued debt. Corporate leverage is up. Margin buying is at record levels. Investors are optimistic again. Analysts seem unanimous in forecasting higher prices. This is a great time to do the opposite and walk away. """""""" I also republished this at the highs this summer to point out that I felt we had 10% down potential going into year end.
AMEX:DIA
by timwest
11
DJIA ETF -DIA -Daily -August Options Expiry Was Today's LowI normally watch only the SPY (SP500 SPDR ETF) for options expiration key levels, but I thought I'd check the DIA and see how it looked and here it is. Lately too, the volume on the downside since mid-July has swamped the buying days. So, either people are shorting DIA against their portfolios on down days to hedge (like the good old days) or this is just an observation. You can see now that 169 is a key resistance area just overhead. If we see 169, I'll be selling and looking for 166 and change to cover, then will look for 164.5, then 164.0. Cheers. Tim 11:05PM EST 10/2/2014
AMEX:DIA
by timwest
5
****IMMINENT STOCK MARKET CRASH AT HAND??????******STRANGE******I have not one clue about why this market is behaving the way it is right now . . . The exponential moving averages and the simple moving averages on the DIA suggest that the market is very bullish. MOREOVER, if one takes a look at the ADX indicator, the RSI indicator, the Stochastics indicator, and the MACD indicator, all of these indicators suggest a pullback on a Daily chart. HOWEVER, although the indicators suggest a pullback, strangely enough they tell a different story on a weekly chart. MOREOVER, on a weekly chart the indicators display massive divergence in this market that has been building up for SEVERAL MONTHS!! Furthermore, now that the month of October and November are quickly approaching, then perhaps one would need to consider some precaution, for it may be possible that this weekly scale divergence may unfold during the coming months . . .
AMEX:DIA
by TheBlanco951
2
****IMMINENT STOCK MARKET CRASH AT HAND??????******STRANGE******I have not one clue about why this market is behaving the way it is right now . . . The exponential moving averages and the simple moving averages on the DIA suggest that the market is very bullish. MOREOVER, if one takes a look at the ADX indicator, the RSI indicator, the Stochastics indicator, and the MACD indicator, all of these indicators suggest a pullback on a Daily chart. HOWEVER, although the indicators suggest a pullback, strangely enough they tell a different story on a weekly chart. MOREOVER, on a weekly chart the indicators display massive divergence in this market that has been building up for SEVERAL MONTHS!! Furthermore, now that the month of October and November are quickly approaching, then perhaps one would need to consider some precaution, for it may be possible that this weekly scale divergence may unfold during the coming months . . .
AMEX:DIA
by TheBlanco951
REPUBLISHING Tim West's January 2014 FORECAST FOR DJIAI just find it interesting that so far this forecast is going along pretty close to reality - The market did move down in the first part of the year and it dropped the same magnitude (almost exactly) as forecast. Then the new high occurred and that happened after the correction and to nearly the exact same price as forecast. Now that we are facing the end of the year and the forecast was for a decline into the end of the year... can you believe that this forecast will come true??? Tim 8/16/2014 3:36PM EST Saturday Here's the text of the forecast for this year 2014, from January: 2014 Forecast: The market has not built enough time up here to sustain a long term rally. But with more time at lower levels then accumulation can develop and the bull market can continue. However, from current levels the market is not on sturdy ground. The market is stretched up at 165 and support is down at 149 and implies a downside risk of 10%. The time of the last consolidation was 12 weeks and we are in the 12th week of the rally. So, time has run out. Since the market has needed 20 weeks of accumulation before each previous rally, it is bearish to me that it only took 12 weeks in this latest accumulation. The factors driving the market until now have been clear (stock buybacks, earnings growth, Fed driven low interest rates, equity fund inflows), but we are ahead of rational long term valuations and I would not recommend committing new funds to this market. I think this year will be at best a sideways to down year as investors still have very few choices on where to invest and stocks will be a focus, primarily because money has flowed into equities and out of bonds and corporations have repurchased stock and issued debt. Corporate leverage is up. Margin buying is at record levels. Investors are optimistic again. Analysts seem unanimous in forecasting higher prices. This is a great time to do the opposite and walk away. -----------------------
AMEX:DIAShort
by timwest
7
The Dow 2007 vs 2014Of course, the projected future waves are pure speculation and I'm not expecting any patterns to repeat themselves exactly. There do exist, however, 7-year and 13-year cycles in the market that deserve consideration and further research, considering the similarities I believe to be showing quite clearly in this comparison. I have made an effort to simplify this by keeping any drawings to a minimum and, by the way, the year 2000 doesn't have the same resemblances. Thanks to Chris Moody for his 2xEMA (20 and 100) Trend Detection script. Do feel free to comment!
AMEX:DIAShort
by ZigaZaga
7
Dow Jones - On-balance volume strategyI have checked and over checked this strategy a few times, so I hope there won't be too many mistakes. As you will see, this is a very simple and effective strategy, which produces signals when used on its own, without adding any other indicator on the chart or using any fundamental factor. All you need is the OBV indicator, candlesticks and support and resistance. This is how it goes : 1 Look for a divergence on OBV. It shouldn't be a divergence when the price goes flat, it should be a divergence formed on two peaks or troughs. Note that only class A and B divergences have been taken into consideration. 2 After spotting a divergence, wait for a bullish or bearish candlestick like : hammer. shooting star, doji, engulfing, piercing line, dark cloud cover, abandoned baby. Candlestick patterns can be considered too : Evening/morning star, island reversal. 3 Look for the first structure support, that is the start of the current rally or the start of the current correction and set a target above or below it by a few points. On that particular target, position should be closed by <=50%, of the entire position. 4 Before getting to the target, after moving in your favor, the stop should be adjusted to breakeven. 5 The remaining of the original position should be closed when the trader sees fit, or till a contrary signal appears. I have not found a proper closing signal yet. In the period this strategy was tested, it produced 39 signals. That means 3 signals each year. 4 signals were whipsaws, the red lines. 5 signals broke even (if the stop would have been adjusted to breakeven after the trade moved in your favor) 11 signals went to structure support, and made a rebound. 19 signals went a lot below structure support, with some of them even predicting long lasting corrections. You can see that I'm using the word support, and not resistance. That is because this strategy doesn't really give long signals, most of them are shorting signals. Out of the 39 signals, 9 were long, 30 were short. Out of the 9 long signals, 6 went through the immediate resistance, 2 made it only to the resistance, and one of them failed. This is a trading strategy that I'm going to use from now on, separately from my usual trading system. I'll be back with more information.
AMEX:DIAEducation
by vlad.adrian
10