GSD trade ideas
GLD: Cooling off 💦It is still summer, so no wonder GLD wants to refresh itself in the upper blue zone between $163.03 and $160.17, into which it has leaped so enthusiastically that we have to wipe droplets of water from our faces, watching the chart. Here, GLD should now finish wave (ii) in blue before resuming the overarching upwards movement. However, as part of our secondary scenario, there is a 40% chance that GLD might need more refreshment and thus could jump below the support at $158, diving into the lower blue zone between $159.23 and $152.88. There, it should then do a lap to complete wave alt.(4) in yellow before rising again.
#GLD approached massive horizontal support zoneGLD ETF has reached a significant horizontal support level which has been in play for over 2 years now. Will we get another bounce off this level? Also interesting that this support is intersecting at the weekly 200ema. Not a bad risk reward to try play a reversal off this significant support as your risk can be quite limited
A bearlish scenario for Gold Gold faces many obstacles, but recession fears could help...
The gold market tumbled $40 Thursday and briefly fell below the $1,700 an ounce level as markets began to price in an oversized 100-basis-point rate hike from the Federal Reserve at the July meeting.
Rate hike expectations were quickly re-priced after the latest U.S. inflation numbers shocked the markets, with the annual CPI number coming in at 9.1% and the yearly PPI rising 11.3% in June.
Before inflation data, markets were looking for a nearly 100% chance of a 75-basis-point hike at the Fed's July 27 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. However, within 24 hours after the numbers were released, the expectations shifted to an 80.9% chance of a 100-basis-point hike. This would take the fed funds rate to a range of 2.50%-2.75%.
"Only yesterday morning, the market had just finally priced in a full 75bp rate hike in July for the first time. In a few hours, an above-consensus U.S. CPI reading and a surprise 100bp rate hike by the Bank of Canada changed the whole picture again. After these two events, markets have moved to seriously consider a 1.0% rate increase by the Fed in two weeks," said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING.
The Bank of Canada surprised the markets with a 100-basis-point hike on Wednesday, warning that inflation will remain elevated for the next three months.
"The Bank of Canada made the leap into triple-digit hikes shortly after the U.S. CPI release, acknowledging in the process that it had underestimated inflation since Spring last year," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.
$GLD short ideaThe Dollar is breaking out causing foreign currencies to fall under pressure. The Euro continues to breakdown and the Japanese Yen as well. This is putting pressure on commodities such as Oil and Gold.
$GLD is breaking down through supports, targets to the downside are 158, 155, and 150. Possible round trip to Covid lows. Hang on tight Peter Schiff!
OptionsSwing Analyst
Daniel Betancourt
$GLD Looking to Breakout? $GLD Broke out on the week of Feb 14, 2022. Then came back in to retest the prior low. It did not exceed that low. Notice a series of Higher Lows. Looks like we are at or near an area of resistance. I will be looking to take this long over the resistance area with a tight stop just under that area if / when it breaks above it. Target old highs. All TBD. Notes on chart. Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
/GC hit my low todayThis may NOT work at all, but back on March 26th I "asked" in meditation, or quiet time, "What is the next low in /GC?" Answer was 1839.
I don't track gold every day or anything, but when I looked today I noticed price has gottent to the drawing on my chart for a low at 1839! So it was exciting to see the LOD is actually 1838.70 and it's bounced since. Anything can happen, of course, but I do have some other information to look for a move up in miners in June. So maybe this is the start of it. I hope, but this should be a longer term low if it works.
Long GLD With rising inflation and politicals risk all around the world, Gold continues to perform as a safe haven for assets. From the TA perspective, Gold has formed a double bottom and it is breaking out late march level ($1957ish). It is aiming for a 0.61 Fib level around $2000, possibly all-time high,
Long GLD/ Short FinancialsGold to outperform financials if economy continues to slow.
Financials may be vulnerable to a pull back given the slowing economic backdrop and interest rate vol.
Financials essentially have a short strangle on interest rates as higher rates commonly reduce lending and slows economic growth. While lower rates reduce earnings on loans and pools capital to only the most credit worthy borrowers. They perform well in a "sweet" spot.
Gold has favourable macro economic back drop (although has been disappointing lately) and usually outperforms relative to other risk assets in vol shock.