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GSD trade ideas

GLD, losing the shineGLD, on daily charts depicts a very grim picture. GLD not only seems to have lost some shine recently, but the outlook also looks grim. 14 day and 28 day cycles are observed in GLDs charts and while we are in the rising phase of the smaller cycle, price is not showing any strength. The Bollinger bands are in expanded shape. I would look for price to move sideways or come closer to its 20 day average. That should be a great position to buy some puts/ or short GLDs. Will be looking for other technical indicators for confirmations as trade develops
AMEX:GLDShort
by LoveForCharts
1
Gold & metal bull-run about to commence? SPDR GLD Trust AnalysisIt looks to me like there is a clear fractal format of the post-2020 gold market on the SPDR GLD etf chart. Form 1 shows a very large bull-flag type form which resolved beginning of 2021 with a roughly 13% upmove. This has regressed into a smaller fractal copy (about 25% smaller) of this form from Q1 2021 to present day which appears to be resolving down to S1 which sits at about $156. If we are looking at another 13% pump, then this wil leasily breach the post-2020 downchannel over the course of Q4 2021. Significantly, this should decisively take-back the 100dma. If the channel breaches to the upside then I strongly suggest $178 will be within striking distance and could be the next significant resistance to be tested and possibly breached. After that, the peak of the GLD bull market resistance lives at $194. As a short-to-medium term outlook, I expect another $5-$10 worth of downside (which would take the market into definitive oversold conditions on the 2h RSI) . Entry should be taken as clost to $156 as possible and from there if the flag resolves as expected we should look for a Q4 bull run in gold with $178 being first (moderate) target and more aggressively bullish traders can target $194. Between 15-30% up for grabs over the next few months if this fractal flag pattern resolves as expected either way. As a final note, I expect this movement to be replicated in non-paper $/oz gold as well along with possibly silver and other "safety run" assets.
AMEX:GLDLong
by RogueEconomics
Interesting fractal flag formation on SPDR goldAppears to be a fractal bull-flag formation on SPDR gold daily chart. Also appears to be following a parallel channel. Two distinct forms since 2020 Form 1 began with the kung flu crisis in April 2020. Hit the bottom of the channel at S1 (156.82) and rallied by 13.82%. It failed to breach the channel upper-boundary and began form 2 from there. Form 2 began with the rejection at the top of the channel and has since followed the mid-line of the channel forming the 2nd bull flag. My theory is that the flag form will lead to another test of support at S1 (156.62) and presuming we have another 13% rally from there we will breach the downchannel to the upside and In principle resolution of this form should lead to a breakout of the downwards channel. The breakout will re-test the resistance at 178 and likely break through it on a successive attempt presuming support at S1 (156) holds. Upside target from there is 194. This market is adhering to a rough fibonacci time outline so I expect to see this setup resolve within the last quarter of this year. Entries around 156 exits around 178. Aggressive traders could also try for 194.
AMEX:GLDLong
by RogueEconomics
SLV - ready to move up?I think so. This is the gold to silver ratio. When silver outperforms gold this ration goes down. SLV has taken it on the chin this year and over the next few months I expect the pattern to resolve itself to the downside similar to the 2010-2012 period (look left). Indicators look ripe for a roll. Typically silver makes a new all time high within a year or less of gold reaching a new high and that did not happened with silver this time around with gold's new all time high last August. I haven't written a silver note in a long time. I think we are looking at a back up the truck opportunity. My observation.
AMEX:GLDLong
by BobbySpa
BUY OPPORTUNITY GLD is a fund that reflects the price of gold . It has a direct correlation with the underlying. When the price of gold increases, that of the fund increases, while when the price of gold decreases, the price of the fund decreases. It is a highly protective asset that helps diversify portfolio risk. It has a long-term bullish statistical bias and is particularly tempting to place in a portfolio. By statistically analyzing the history of gold prices (1970 - today) we can consider ourselves in a position of extreme advantage at this time. Analyzing the past crises from 1974 (from the point of maximum to their minimum) to date, 6 major crashes are found for the gold market. The smallest reversal was 35% at the end of 1987, while the largest decrease in value was recorded starting from 1980, losing more than 70%, with an average drawndown of -47.5%. The ratio of drawdown to recovery period is around 1.5. Means that on average gold takes around 1.5 times the time it takes to recover value compared to the time it takes to lose it. Analyzing the declines that did not affect the trend reversal, we can see that in over 50 years of history, the declines that did not lead to trend reversals have had decreases in value that have never exceeded 30%. The price of gold has lost only about - 17% from its maximums, so for the moment we are well above the average level of historical reversal (-30%). Although the quantitative analysis in the past has an indicator of a probable trend reversal of the instrument in the future, the decrease in price from the maximums does not confirm the same direction (the price did not exceed -30% from the maximum reached in 2020), considering the situation extra ordinary (and still uncertain) for the world economy and the probability of new lockdowns, finding ourselves on a discount level of approximately -17% of the asset, I will proceed accordingly. Insertion of the asset class in the core department, finding the discount level interesting. Given past trends and the present period, gold will be positively affected in the event of continued uncertainty in the future economy. If the price should fall below the -30% level from the 2020 highs, we will proceed to close the position on the asset. Going up now considering the discount on prices brings us to an advantageous situation as it allows us to decrease the risk of our operation. If we assume that we are close to a minimum level and that the long-term is characterized by a strong upward statistical bias, combined with the fact that the global economic situation is still far from an official recovery and that the Fed will have to wait a little longer before raising rates, positioning on $GLD is an excellent medium / long term opportunity for part of the core structure of my portfolio. Let's analyze the data: - Standard Deviation 10Y = 0.99% - Standard Deviation 5Y = 0.85% - Standard Deviation 3Y = 0.90% The riskiness of the product decreased by about 10% from 2010 to today. - 5Y yield = + 5.54% - 3Y yield = + 12% - YTD yield = - 1% 3Y Expected Return: + 30% Max loss (with hedging): 5.60% Max portfolio loss (in the event that the outcome of this core transaction does not go according to estimates): % of equity to be dedicated to this operation: 10% of the total portfolio + 5% for any hedging = 15% of the total portfolio Risk - Return = 1: 5.35 Over time, three different situations can arise: A) Closing the long trade at a loss and closing the hedging in profit, then: - Potential loss% on the portfolio: - 0.57% B) Closing of the hedging at a loss and profit of the long operation, then: - Potential gain% on the portfolio: + 2.37% C) There is no need for the hedging strategy and the instrument meets expectations, then: - Potential gain% on the portfolio: + 3% Remember that this is my market vision and should not be interpreted in any way as an investment advice!
AMEX:GLDLong
by UnknownUnicorn25541012
Trade Idea: GLD March 18th 140/September 17th 165 LCD*... long call diagonal. Comments: Here, I'm preliminarily pricing out a bullish assumption GLD setup, buying the back month 90 delta and selling the front month at-the-money call. I'd prefer to deploy this at that obvious support level at 160, which has resulted in some buying interest previously. If that occurs, I'd have to tweak the strikes slightly, selling an at-the-money 160, for example, and then buying whatever the 90 delta strike in the back month. The Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 22.79 ($2279) Max Profit: The Width of the Diagonal Spread (25.00) Minus the Debit Paid (22.79) = 2.21 ($221) ROC %-Age as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 2.21/22.79 = 9.7% Break Even: The Long Call Strike (140) + the Debit Paid (22.79) = 162.79 versus a spot price of 164.64 Trade Management: Take profit on the setup's approach of max (which would be 25.00). Otherwise, roll out the short call to a strike at or above your break even of 164.64 to reduce setup cost basis. Variations: Preliminarily, I'm pricing out the setup with a fairly long-dated back month. To get in with less buying power effect, look to buy a shorter duration back month 90 delta, with the trade-off being that you'll have less time to reduce cost basis via the short call in the event that gold prices keep on going down. To look for more profit potential, sell a less monied call (e.g., the 30 delta) to give the trade more room to the upside.
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AMEX:GLDLong
by NaughtyPines
19