Bullish Play on (BABA) Ahead of Chinese Economic Data & Alibaba (BABA) is forming a triple top pattern near the $142-$145 resistance zone ahead of key economic data releases and potential positive stimulus measures from the Chinese Congress meeting. While a triple top is traditionally seen as a bearish formation, a breakout above resistance could signal strong bullish momentum, fueled by market optimism regarding Chinese economic support and potential tariff relief.
Trade Setup: Long Position on BABA
📈 Entry Point:
Breakout confirmation above $145 (previous resistance).
If momentum is strong, consider scaling in at $143-$144 for an early entry.
🎯 Target Price:
First Target: $155 (short-term resistance from early 2023).
Second Target: $165 (next major psychological level if sentiment remains strong).
🛑 Stop-Loss:
Below $138 (recent swing low and key support zone).
Alternatively, a trailing stop-loss to secure profits as the price rises.
Catalysts Supporting a Bullish Breakout:
1️⃣ China’s Economic Stimulus 🏦
The Chinese government is expected to announce new stimulus measures to support growth, which could boost investor confidence in Alibaba and other Chinese tech stocks.
Potential fiscal easing & liquidity injections may drive funds into large-cap Chinese equities.
2️⃣ Positive Economic Data Expectations 📊
Retail Sales & Industrial Production (March 17, 2025)
Strong numbers would indicate a rebound in consumer spending & manufacturing, benefiting Alibaba’s core e-commerce business.
3️⃣ Tariff Reduction Speculations 🌎
If the Chinese Congress signals progress on easing U.S.-China tariffs, Alibaba could see increased foreign investment & improved profitability.
4️⃣ Technical Breakout Potential 🔍
The triple-top pattern could turn into a breakout if volume surges past resistance ($145).
A move above this level could trigger short-covering & FOMO buying, leading to a quick rally.
What If the Data Disappoints?
If economic data underwhelms, BABA could reject resistance and pull back toward $130-$135.
In this case, waiting for a confirmed breakout before entering long positions is advisable.
📌 Final Thought:
BABA is at a critical inflection point. If economic optimism and stimulus expectations materialize, a breakout past $145 could fuel a strong rally toward $155-$165. Traders should watch for volume confirmation and be prepared to ride the upside while managing risk carefully. 🚀💹
Check out my other ideas about chineese stocks and more:
HBBD trade ideas
Baba Price is overbought on the monthly and weekly money flow and RSI..
This current rang trade is likely distribution
Also we are 30% extended from the 50 SMA . This is extreme
I would buy this at all up here , I think we will retest 104-108 (Weekly200ma) on a pullback before we break over 150.
I don't know when this distribution breaks and price resets but until then you can just trade the range 145-130...
Id take a short at 145-150 a few months out . .stop loss over 150.
Below I will show you a perfect example of price being extended and over bought at resistance and distributing..
This is AVGO.
Notice how it tagged it's trendline (Red arrow.
Now at that point the technicals were pretty overbought similar to where baba is now
Now zoom in here and notice price traded in what looked like a bullish pennant here at resistance
But look how it panned out
It was never a pennant, it was distribution in disguise..
every now and then you get a meme type of movement like PLTR or Mstr where technicals are thrown to the window but I don't think this is it
Possible the biggest genie wish everThe massive rally Alibaba has experienced has enabled it to close a significant 3M selling fair value gap from 2021.
Interestingly, the price of around $140 is around equal highs January 22 ‘s12M candle.
This looks like a double top…..on the 12M!!!!
Now, I will point out that we HAVE NO CONFIRMATION at this point that this is a 12M double top at all.
But there are a few reasons why I am speculating that we could see a sharp decline.
1. We have just filled a 4 year old 3 month selling FVG (highlighted in red)
2. We did not break above the 2022 high
3. We are Heavily Overbought on the Weekly TF
4. In February we breached the previous 1/4s low, the is the main key to my suspicions
After pumping 80% in less than 2 months, like any timeframe you’d, expect a retracement.
The Golden Retracement level is 0.618 which is highlighted however there are WEEKLY buying FVGs all the way to back to the Previous 1/4s low which has already been breached!
So there is a strong possibility of a full 100% retracement back to 82, if BABA does not continue to pump.
The second big IF……If Baba returns to 82, the price then has a much bigger problem than a 100% retracement.
The price would be close enough and have enough momentum to test at ATL, which would be the neck of the 12M double top.
I think the price would fall through 82.
If price gets there, I don’t think the current ATL prices would get supported and I think we’d get a new ATL of around 80
The new ATL price I’ve guesstimated using Standard Deviations.
This is of course highly speculative but I’ve given my rationale at least.
Alibaba - This Chart Is Pretty Beautiful!Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) is perfectly respecting structure:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
With a rally of about +80% within a couple of weeks, Alibaba is clearly showing signs of bulls completely taking over. This pressure was not unexpected though after we perfectly witnessed the major trendline breakout a couple of months ago and a retest of the confluence of support.
Levels to watch: $140, $110
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
CHINA FIN MARKETS | Investing in China & AIChina's market resurgence might pose some great opportunities for investors, especially after a long bearish cycle for the global Chinese financial markets.
February 2025 saw a significant shake-up in global markets, with China emerging as a key player driving investor sentiment. The MSCI China Index surged by 11.2% for the month, vastly outperforming the MSCI US Index:
One of the biggest catalysts behind China’s recent rally has been its advancements in Artificial Intelligence (DeepSeekAI being one of the key drivers).
By operating at a fraction of the cost of their US counterparts, such as OpenAI and Meta, DeepSeek's competitive advantage has given China an edge in the AI space, which can be seen in the market confidence.
XIAOMI has been one of the top gainers, largely as they are expanding their market penetration:
Chinese markets in February saw a boost when President Xi Jinping was warmly received by tech industry leaders. A handshake between Xi and Alibaba’s Jack Ma who previously stepped back from the public eye following regulatory crackdowns, was seen as a major gesture of reconciliation between the government and the private sector. This renewed support for private enterprises.
China’s long-term strategy has been paying dividends in high-tech industries. China has increased its global market share in nearly all industries and is outperforming competitors in cost-efficiency, particularly in sectors like copper smelting.
Despite recent gains, China’s stock market has yet to fully recover from its underperformance over the past decade. While the MSCI China Index has risen 34.6% over the past year, long-term returns still lag behind global markets. A US$100 investment in an MSCI World Index tracker in 2010 would have grown to US$480 by early 2024, whereas the same amount invested in an MSCI China Index fund would have only reached US$175.
China’s resurgence has brought a renewed sense of optimism, but investors remain cautious. While AI advancements and low cost of labor have positioned China as a competitive force, historical challenges like regulatory intervention, tariffs and economic instability still loom.
_________________________
Elliott Wave View: Alibaba (BABA) Rallying in 5 WavesAlibaba (ticker: BABA) started a 5 waves rally from Jan 22, 2024 low. Up from there, wave (1) ended at 116.57 and wave (2) pullback ended at 80.06. Wave (3) higher ended at 145.3 as the 30 minutes chart below shows. Wave (4) pullback unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (3), wave ((i)) ended at 138.3 and wave ((ii)) ended at 143.75. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 128.44 and wave ((iv)) ended at 131.5. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 127.78 which completed wave A in higher degree.
Wave B rally also unfolded as a zigzag structure. Up from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 136.66 and wave ((b)) ended at 130.75. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 143 which completed wave B in higher degree. The stock then turned lower in wave C as an impulse. Down from wave B, wave ((i)) ended at 138.29 and wave ((ii)) ended at 142.1. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 130.14 and wave ((iv)) ended at 135.99. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 126.1 which completed wave C of (4) in higher degree.
The stock has resumed higher in wave (5) and broken above wave (3) confirming the next leg higher has started. Up from wave (4), wave 1 ended at 146.76. Pullback in wave 2 is now in progress to correct cycle from 3.4.2025 low before the stock resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 126.16 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
BABA - Attempt to retrace its highWriting this as an example to friends of why its so important to put in a "Stop Loss" in every position that you're holding overnight or even long term.
In this scenario I bought at the top and held the position for five years, waiting for a bottom to form.
1st Purchase: 12-29-2020 - (30) Shares @ 231.30
2nd Purchase: 05-23-2024 - (30) Shares @ 81.91
3rd Purchase: 11-14-2024 - (20) Shares @ 90.54
This is where we are at today. I have a method of trying to identify the completion of a bottom. Then use Wyckoff method to figure out where is the spring phase to catch good pricing.
Then I've been adding to the loss position to lower my long-term loss and hopefully come out with a profit. "RED Dotted Line labeled AVG COST"
As of today 03-05-2025 this holding is at a $278.29 Profit. Not bad for holding 5 years just to make almost $300 dollars profit but better yet.
Valuable lessons learned both as a trader/investor:
1. Keep your losses short, put in a Stop Loss once the order has been filled or when opening the position
2. Pride - the market doesn't care if you're right or wrong. Its your pride and ego that's stopping you from admitting the trade is working against you and action needs to be taken.
3. Pride - you're not going to catch the absolute Top or Bottom. The Trend is your Friend, ride that wave until you get stopped out at a HAPPY Profit.
Either way, like I tell anyone who wants to start trading or investing. The market will show you what you need to improve on. Its important to keep a trading log, creating a trading plan, and most importantly - LIMIT your LOSES.
$BABA Massive Support BounceAlibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) presents a compelling investment opportunity for 2025, supported by several key factors:
Analyst Projections: Analysts maintain a "Strong Buy" consensus for Alibaba, with an average 12-month price target of $125.40, indicating a potential upside of approximately 55.72% from the current price.
Strategic Investments and AI Integration: Alibaba's strategic investments, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), are expected to drive growth in its e-commerce and cloud computing segments. The integration of AI-powered tools and services positions the company to capitalize on emerging technological trends.
International Expansion: The company's international and logistics segments have experienced revenue growth, reflecting Alibaba's efforts to expand its global footprint. This diversification enhances its revenue streams and reduces dependence on the domestic market.
Valuation and Market Position: Despite recent stock performance, Alibaba is considered undervalued compared to its peers, trading at conservative multiples. Its dominant position in e-commerce and cloud services, coupled with substantial cash reserves, underscores its potential for a market rebound.
In summary, Alibaba's favorable analyst outlook, strategic investments in AI, international expansion, and attractive valuation suggest that BABA is a promising investment for 2025.
ALIBABA WYCKOFFHello
Here I present my possible idea of an accumulation campaign that has lasted almost 3 years and now ends with a brake out, being able to buy back when it reaches the upper level of the campaign around 118 usd.
It is somewhat unclear what the climax would be but it is a clear example of absorption volumes.
BABA in a falling wedge (NEW)BABA stock has been in a long-term downtrend.
We're expecting the price to continue droping as it looks like it got rejected from the downsloping resistance line on the weekly timeframe.
What we can see on the chart is a pattern called a falling wedge.
Most likely the price will revisit $60 or lower but eventually we expect the breakout in Q2 or Q3 2023.
How to trade:
Enter long position if/when we get a breakout with a volume increase.
Final target and the take profit level are shown on the chart.
Good luck
BABA - ready for a trend reversalhi traders,
Let's have a look at the BABA chart on the 1D time frame.
After a massive rally, BABA experienced a deep pullback, but it looks like it might be time to load up on BABA again.
BABA is still in our buy zone but we're expecting the trend reversal soon.
Probably US market will experience some sort of pullback in its bull market and in this period we're expecting China market to have a nice recovery.
Our targets for BABA:
Target 1: 107 $
Target 2: 117$
We're expecting other Chinese stocks to perform well too . Check NIO stock here:
Good luck