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SGX MB Iron Ore CFR China (65% Fe Fines) Index FuturesSGX MB Iron Ore CFR China (65% Fe Fines) Index FuturesSGX MB Iron Ore CFR China (65% Fe Fines) Index Futures

SGX MB Iron Ore CFR China (65% Fe Fines) Index Futures

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M65F1! trade ideas

IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/42]: IO Reversal Deepens SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) fell last week for a second week in a row, closing USD 4.15/ton lower by Friday. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 105.85/ton on 14/Oct (Mon) and closed at USD 101.70/ton on 18/Oct (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 109.05/ton on 14/Oct (Mon) and a low of USD 99.30/ton on 17/Oct (Thu). It traded in a range of USD 9.75/ton during the week, which was smaller than the prior week. Prices traded below the pivot point of USD 108.10/ton for the entire week but managed to hold support above the S1 pivot point at 101.15. Volume peaked on 17/Oct (Thu) as Iron Ore prices declined despite the announcement of expanded housing stimulus measures. SGX Iron Ore Futures Fundamentals in Summary Further measures to support the housing industry in China were announced on 17/Oct (Thu). The measures included widened support under the “white list” program to 4 trillion Yuan. PBoC started the week with a 25 bps cut to the 5-year loan prime rate and a 25 basis point cut to the 1-year loan prime rate offering additional easing measures. Despite an early rally, IO pared gains by the end of the day. China's GDP growth in Q3 was 0.9%, falling short of analyst expectations but exceeding the 0.5% growth recorded in Q2, which was revised downward. Annual GDP growth reached 4.6%, significantly below the 5% target. IO China Portside inventories rose by 1.89M tons to 149.73 million tons last week. The increase was driven by significantly higher arrivals and low pace of pickup due to slower restocking. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Nov contract trades 3.5% below its last 5-year average (USD 105.58/ton). Seasonal performance also suggests there could be a price dip with a low in the next couple of weeks. Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Reversal of Bullish Trend The 9-day moving average is continuing its downward trend and marked a bearish crossover on 21/Oct (Mon). Last week, the price held support above the S1 pivot point but faced rejection at the P pivot point on 21/Oct (Mon). Long-Term Averages Signal Bearish Trend Price fell below the 100-day moving average on 17/Oct (Thu). Despite reaching highs above this level, price has failed to close above the MA. MACD Points to Downturn, RSI Flat MACD signals an ongoing bearish trend since 16/Oct (Wed) with the distance between long and short-term MA continuing to expand as of 21/Oct (Mon). RSI is at the mid-point level of 49.5 signaling neutral trend. Volatility Eases, Fibonacci 50% Maintained Support Last Week Volatility briefly edged up in the middle of last week but now continues to decline and has reached the lowest level in October. The 50% Fibonacci level was tested last week but managed to maintain support. With a continued downward trend, the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 97.55 is the next major support level to watch if price declined below 50%. Selling Pressure Dominates, Price Gap Likely to be Tested This Week Heavy selling pressure dominates IO trading according to the Accumulation/Distribution indicator (A/D). Price trades at a high volume node which was dominated by sell volume and below a low volume valley which could be tested during the week. The bullish flag failed to maintain last week as prices fell further instead of consolidating. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore prices continued to decline last week as the expanded stimulus measures disappointed market expectations once again. Bearish trend in IO continues as fundamentals signal more pain in store and short-term MA signaled a bearish crossover. We propose a hypothetical trade set up of selling SGX IO November Futures Contract at USD 101.2/ton with a stop at USD 104.05/ton and target at USD 97.5/ton resulting in reward-to-risk ratio of 1.30x. Entry: USD 101.2/ton Target: USD 104.05/ton Stop Loss: USD 97.5/ton Profit at Target: USD 370/lot ((101.2-97.5) x 100) Loss at Stop: USD 285/lot ((101.2-104.05) x 100) Reward to Risk: 1.30x This calculation excludes transaction costs comprising of clearing broker fees and exchange clearing fees. The SGX requires a minimum initial margin of USD 1,232/lot and a maintenance margin of USD 1,120/lot. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEF2!Short
by MintBulkCommods
2
Iron ore futures look heavy after breaking multiple levelsChinese iron ore port inventories are bloated and continue to increase, hitting more than two-year highs last week. When you throw seasonality into the mix, the build is occurring at a time when inventories should be drawing fast. It’s extremely rare, raising questions whether iron ore can hold above $100 when the largest source of steel demand globally – China’s property sector – is on its knees. From not only a fundamental but technical perspective, SGX iron ore futures look ripe for downside. Having been rejected at resistance at $114 last week, the August 2024 contract has broken the 50-day moving average level, back testing it and then slicing through uptrend support before doing away with horizonal support at $109 on Monday. Having retested $109 earlier today and failed, a short trade looks in order targeting $102, the low struck in July. The risk reward of selling around these levels is still favourable, although the preference would be to see the price move closer to $109, allowing for a tight stop to be placed above the level for protection. If the trade were to move in your favour, consider lowering your stop to entry level. DS
SGX:FEF2!Short
by FOREXcom
1
Iron ore futures set for another visit below $100?SGX iron ore futures look set for a potential push below $100, breaking a series of downside supports over the past two sessions. Friday brought a bearish break of the symmetrical triangle futures had been trading in over recent weeks. That was followed up today with the price slicing below $103.50, the low struck on June 11. With momentum building to the downside and fundamental backdrop darkening due to continued woes in China’s property sector and unseasonably elevated iron ore inventories being held at Chinese ports, the risks look skewed to the downside in the short to medium term. Traders could sell the break targeting a retest of $97, where futures bounced five times earlier in the year. A stop loss above $103.50 would provide protection against reversal. DS
SGX:FEF2!Short
by FOREXcom
iron buddha.The price of red dirt is ready to break down. even with the debasement of the USD, the price of this commodity has failed to increase. This colony of the empire (terra nullus) has done well from the plentiful red dirt. A countries wealth is from its resources . African countries have always been exploited for this. China's demand for red dirt might be on the decline. Maybe a world war might cause this price to spike as more steel is required to make tanks but then tanks are expensive and easy targets for $500 drones.
COMEX:TIO1!Short
by RogueCleaner
Long SteelWhen the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, it tends to diminish the appeal of fixed-income assets due to lower yields, prompting investors to seek higher returns elsewhere. This shift often leads to increased investment in commodities, including steel, as they offer a hedge against inflation and potential for speculative gains in a low-rate environment. For someone bullish on steel, a Fed announcement to cut rates could be particularly favorable, as it not only decreases the attractiveness of bonds and similar investments but also potentially weakens the dollar, making commodities priced in USD more attractive to foreign investors. This scenario can drive up the price of steel, benefiting investors who anticipated the move and positioned themselves in the market accordingly. The broader economic stimulation from lower rates, while encouraging spending and investment, also raises inflation concerns, further bolstering the case for investing in tangible assets like steel that can serve as a hedge against the eroding value of currency. Looking for a 20% gain +. We have started to see Mill pricing start shifting upward after a series of decreases.
COMEX:HRC1!Long
by SPYDERMARKET
Iron Ore Futures ~ Snapshot TA / Coiling like a Steel RollIron Ore Futures coiling like a steel roll in a series of Lower Highs & Higher Lows since October 2022. Break above 116.60 = Bullish momentum towards 134.85 (38.2% Fib Retracement) Break below 99.40 = Bearish momentum towards 77.60 (78.6% Fib Extension) Seasonality typically favours the Bulls running strong into end of year - we'll see if it still rings true this year, given China's current economic woes.. Boost/Follow appreciated. Futures: SGX:FEF1! SGX:FEF2! COMEX:TIO1! COMEX:TIO2! ASX: ASX:BHP ASX:RIO ASX:FMG ASX:MIN ASX:CIA NYSE: NYSE:VALE
SGX:FEF2!Long
by BlueHatInvestor
Iron ore hits record-low as demand drops By the end of 2022, the price of iron ore is expected to hit their lowest level in three or four years as global demand for the commodity continues to slow down, particularly from China, the world's largest consumer of iron ore. In recent years, China has been cutting down its iron ore demand especially after the government placed restrictions on the industry to reduce carbon emissions. In 2021, the country's iron ore import fell to 1.12 billion tons from 1.17 billion tons in the prior-year period. Expectations for 2022 from the production side are no better with Australia, the world's biggest exporter of iron ore, projecting a 0.6% drop in global steel output to 1.947 billion tons. "Combined with growing global recessionary fears, new COVID-19 outbreaks and weakness in China's housing sector have dampened world steel and iron ore demand in recent months," the Australian government said in its October quarterly report. A Reuters survey in October showed that prices are expected within the $90/ton to $115/ton range by the end of the year. MetalMiner data shows the price in early 2022 were at $160.30/ton at the beginning of Russia's war against Ukraine. The decline comes despite forecasts of growth in the demand for iron ore through to 2026. The global market for iron ore is estimated to reach 2.7 billion metric tons, while production is expected to reach 3.17 billion metric tons. Until definite signs of recovery are observed, maybe it is best to err on the side of caution regarding iron ore prices, especially considering the threats of a recession in Europe and the persisting problems in China's property sector, which could heavily impact on the demand for the key steelmaking ingredient.
SGX:FEF1!
by BlackBull_Markets