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NK1! trade ideas

Has Japan’s Stock Market Peaked? Buy on DipsBy Danish Lim Zhi Lin, Investment Analyst Current Performance of SGX Nikkei 225: The SGX Nikkei 225 Index Futures contract underperformed in April (-5.03%) and was nearly flat in May (-0.05%) as the rise in 10-year JGB yields following the BOJ’s March and May meetings weighed on semiconductor names and other growth stocks. Impact of Yen Depreciation: However, despite rising yields, due to interest rate differentials and carry trades, the Yen continued to depreciate against the Dollar. Although a depreciating currency previously helped the Nikkei 225 climb to new record highs, it has also resulted in higher imported inflation, weighing on companies including retailers and railway operators that rely on domestic spending. A survey conducted by Teikoku Databank on May 17 reported that about 64% of firms surveyed said the recent depreciation of the yen has eroded their profits. Nikkei 225 Outlook & Trading Opportunity: In our opinion, yen depreciation, once a key growth driver, now exerts downward pressure on the stock market. We note that the correlation between a weaker yen and stronger stock prices started turning flat once the yen depreciated past ¥155/$. Nevertheless, we anticipate delayed BOJ rate hikes and delayed FOMC rate cuts to translate into an easing of yen depreciation pressure- supporting a Yen rebound and enabling Japanese equities to outperform in 2H 2024. Corporate governance reforms should provide support for Japanese equities over the medium to long term. We see any near-term weakness or pullback as an entry opportunity. Expressing Our View: We favor the hypothetical trade setup below to express our view: Long SGX Nikkei 225 Index Futures The daily chart shows the contract consolidating around the 38,000 – 39,500 level. With a Trend-based Fibonacci Extension drawn from the October 2023 low, we prefer to take entry at around 38,430, as we view current weakness as an entry opportunity. The 14-day RSI indicates that the contract is currently not at overbought levels. We set our target level at the 0.50% extension level around 42,035. Stop loss is set below the key support level at 36,650. This setup delivers a reward: risk ratio of 2.03x. • Entry Level: 38,430 • Target Level: 42,050 • Stop Loss Level: 36,650 • Profit at Target: 3620 x ¥500= ¥1,810,000 • Loss at Stop: 1780 x ¥500= ¥890,000 • Reward: Risk Ratio: 2.03x Trade Nikkei 225 at only 50 cents* now Capitalise on the Nikkei 225’s movements—trade SGX Nikkei 225 Index Futures at only 50 cents* now and stand to win a pair of air tickets to Japan. Learn more here . *For applicable terms and conditions and a full risk disclaimer, please refer to www.phillipnova.com.sg. This ad has not been reviewed by MAS
SGX:NK1!Long
by phillip_nova
Analysing the Nikkei 225: Insights from the 50D-Moving AverageBy Eric Lee , Sales Director from Phillip Nova 50-day Moving Average and Historical Scenario The 50-day moving average often serves as a key consolidation level for the Nikkei 225. Historically, after significant up or down movements, the index tends to consolidate around this average before resuming its trend. A notable example occurred between mid-July and mid-November 2023. Following a rise from 26,000 to 34,000 points from mid-March to midJune 2023, the index consolidated around the 50-day moving average for 5.5 months before breaking out and continuing its uptrend. Current Market Performance Currently, since early April, the Nikkei 225 has been oscillating along the 50-day moving average. The suggested resistance level is at 39,460 points. A break above this level could indicate a resumption of the uptrend. Conversely, if the index falls below 36,700 points, it would be prudent to exit positions as this level serves as a cut-loss point. Monitoring these levels can help in making informed trading decisions. Trade Nikkei 225 at only 50 cents* now Capitalising on the Nikkei 225’s movements— trade SGX Nikkei 225 Index Futures at only 50 cents* now and stand to win a pair of air tickets to Japan . Learn more here . *For applicable terms and conditions and a full risk disclaimer, please refer to www.phillipnova.com.sg. This ad has not been reviewed by MAS
SGX:NK1!
by phillip_nova
Nikkei (NKD) Has Reached Support ZoneShort term Elliott Wave view in Nikkei Futures (NKD) suggests that rally to 40960 ended wave 3. Pullback in wave 4 is currently in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 3, wave (a) ended at 40025 and wave (b) ended at 40805. Wave (c) lower ended at 39285 and this completed wave ((w)) in higher degree. The Index then bounced in wave ((x)) which ended at 40324 as the 1 hour chart below shows. The Index extended lower in wave ((y)). Internal subdivision of wave ((y)) is unfolding as a zigzag structure. Down from wave ((x)), wave (a) ended at 38815 and wave (b) ended at 39995. Wave (c) lower is in progress as a 5 waves. Down from wave (b), wave i ended at 38830 and wave ii ended at 39540. Wave iii lower ended at 38335 and wave iv ended at 38695. Expect the Index to soon end wave v of (c) of ((y)). This should complete wave 4 in higher degree as well. Afterwards, the Index should extend higher or turn higher in 3 waves at least. The support area comes at 37582 – 38626 blue box area where the Index may potentially find buyers.
CME:NKD1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Where my 40k NKD target came from & why it could go higher laterI've been giving warnings ever since the c0v1d black swan, and especially since the 25k re-test, that Nikkei will grow wings but here's a seeing-is-believing look at where my 40k target comes from For sure it could go higher later and break this key resistance but I would expect at least one more re-test of the navy blue channel beforehand In theory there's no reason why a solid year can't be spent consolidating under that resistance a la 2006 Some very notable calls in recent years: SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance) CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115 TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68 NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100 NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120 NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105 NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
CME:NKD1!
by markusrafferty
Nikkei (NKD_F) Looking to End Impulsive RallyShort Term Elliott Wave view in Nikkei (NKD) suggests pullback to 38136 on 3.12.204 low ended wave 4. Index then turns higher in wave 5. The rally from 3.12.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 39055. Pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 38155 as a zigzag. Down from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 38310, wave (b) ended at 38740 and wave (c) lower ended at 38155. Index then resumed higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 38650 and wave (ii) pullback ended at 38390. Wave (iii) higher ended at 39850 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 39505. Final leg wave (v) ended at 40960 which completed wave ((iii)). Down from there, wave ((iv)) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((iii)), wave (a) ended at 40490 and wave (b) ended at 40680. Wave (c) lower ended at 40025 which completed wave ((iv)). Nikkei has resumed higher in wave ((v)). Up from wave ((iv)), wave (i) ended at 40530 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 40275. Near term, as far as pivot at 38136 low stays intact, expect Index to extend higher.
CME:NKD1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
NIKKE 225 Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & UMVD Indicators. * Trend is Based on TrapZone Color * Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves. * Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand >> USE PAGE DN to go DOWN To the LATEST Post << -------------------- 2-24-2024 Strong Upside Momentum with wide GREEN TrapZone established now and GREEN UMVD continues. Class A Entry at the top of the TrapZone.
OSE:NK2251!
by SnowflakeTrader
Live Trades and Prime Trading Areas explainedIn the video I discuss a few live trades and the reasoning behind the entries. I also talk about the lead up price action that is important to note when managing the trades. I then discuss the same basic concepts applied to price action on the DOW and where the prime entries were and reasons for them. The basic concepts discussed are : - Momentum - Price Action - Candle Analysis - Multi-timeframe Analysis ** If you like the content then take a look at the profile to get more ideas and learning material ** ** Any Comments and likes are greatly appreciated **
OSE:NK2251!
by TradeTheStructure
Nikkei ( NKD_F ) Elliott Wave View: Reacted from the Blue BoxNikkei NKD_F ended an impulse structure at 40565 high and we called wave 3 and the index started a wave 4 pullback. Down from wave 3, wave (i) ended at 40315 and wave (ii) ended at 40465. Wave (iii) lower ended at 39665. Rally in wave (iv) ended at 39895. The market resumes lower in wave (v) ended 39195 and completed wave ((a)) in higher degree. NKD did a bounce from this levels reaching at 39860 and turning down strongly. At 39860 it ended wave ((b)) correction. Down from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 39405 and wave (ii) ended at 39860. Wave (iii) lower ended at 38160. Rally in wave (iv) ended at 38450. Index resumes lower into the blue box area completing wave (v) at 38140 low. Also completed wave ((c)) and wave 4 in higher degree as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Currently, NKD has reacted from the blue box developing an impulse as wave ((i)). As price action stays above 38140 low, we expect to end wave ((ii)) correction and then continuing with the rally or see 3 swings higher at least.
CME:NKD1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Japanese Equities Remain Compelling Despite Record Crushing RiseAnimal spirits are palpable in the Land of Rising Sun. Nikkei-225 smashed through it previous all-time-high set more than 40 years ago. Japanese equity markets have turned steaming hot over the past year after stagnation through lost decades. Strong foreign investment inflows, positive impact from the corporate governance reforms, portfolio rebalancing away from China, and low valuations, are collectively serving as robust tailwinds for the Japan equity market. Yet risks remain from an early BoJ policy pivot, high inflation eroding spending power, and limited domestic capital investment. This paper delves into factors driving record rally of Nikkei-225 index, its outlook, and posits a hypothetical trade to benefit from its continued ascent. WIDE RANGING REFORMS IN PLAY TO BOOST MARKETS. IS IT WORKING? In 2022, the Tokyo Stock Exchange (“TSE”) embarked on market restructuring plan with the creation of new market segments. Source: Tokyo Stock Exchange TSE rolled out a raft of corporate governance reforms in March 2023. It summarized key initiatives that investors aspire to see into fruition, namely (a) Weigh the cost of capital from investors perspective, (b), Report profitability and valuation metrics from multiple perspectives, and (c) Allocate resources to improve corporate value. Reforms aim to boost capital efficiency by utilizing excess cash reserves held by Japanese firms. Price-to-book ratio (“PBR”) is a key metric in TSE’s cross hairs. As of 31/Dec , more than half the firms that have submitted disclosures have a PBR of less than one. PBR less than one suggests that a firm’s dissolution value is greater than its market cap. Data Source: TSE Even among some of the largest firms in the country, PBR is less than 1. Data Source: TV Stock Screener A TSE Review shows that firms are allocating additional resources towards growth initiatives. It suggested share buybacks and dividends were effective means for improving profitability. Impact of the reforms are visible in many ways. Higher shareholder returns (through dividends and buybacks) are already manifest across many firms. Still, there is a long way to go. Disclosures and reforms are not widespread yet. As smaller firms join, capital investment could spread wider. Data Source: TV Stock Screener Also, while dividend growth is high, capex growth remains low. A focus on investor returns improves stock valuations in the near term. However, a larger push towards long-term capital investments will be required for long-term sustained growth. Capital spending by firms surged 16.4% YoY in Q4. Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is pushing for its citizens to invest in domestic firms rather than save. He has re-launched the NISA tax-free investment programme. It provides extended tax-exemption periods and higher annual investment limits. The scheme, if successful, could channel large chunks of new capital into Japanese equities. Domestic participation remains low for now. Japanese investors prefer foreign stocks over domestic ones as per a Morningstar study . VIBRANT FOREIGN INFLOWS IN JAPANESE EQUITIES While domestic investors are yet to embrace its domestic markets, foreigners are leading the charge. US investors have poured USD 8.3B into Japan focused ETFs ( AMEX:EWJ , AMEX:BBJP , and AMEX:DXJ ) since 2023. JAPANESE EQUITIES REMAIN UNDERVALUED Japanese equities remain under-valued. Warren Buffet famously invested USD 6 billion during the pandemic in Japanese trading giants citing that he was offered a “ridiculous price”. Despite the recent market surge, P/E for stocks in the Nikkei-225 stands at mere 20.8x. Comparatively, stocks in the S&P 500 have an average P/E of 34.9x. Data Source: TV Stock Screener Nikkei-225 valuations are even more attractive when adjusted for growth. Average (excl. outliers) TTM PEG ratio for Nikkei-225 firms is 1.3x while for the S&P 500 its 2.5x. Data Source: TV Stock Screener Low profit growth remains a concern for Japanese firms. According to the Japan Ministry of Finance figures , ordinary profits rose by 13% YoY in Q4 2023, while high, that’s slower than 21% during Q3 2023. JAPAN IS ALSO AN AI BENEFICIARY Tokyo Electron, Renesas, and Advantest, constituents within the Nikkei-225 index have emerged as AI rush beneficiaries. Specifically, Tokyo Electron has surged more than 58% YTD. Softbank is another top performer thanks to its investment in $ARM. Heatmap of Nikkei-225 with key firms that comprise a large weightage in the index highlighted in blue. Nikkei-225 is a price-weighted index. Tokyo Electron commands the second largest weight in the index at 9.4% due to its high price. Advantest is third with 4.7%. Softbank ranks fourth with 4.45%. Therefore, a sustained AI fuelled market rally is likely to positively impacting the index. Not just the chip stocks, the Nikkei rally has been top-heavy due to outperformance of other large stocks too. Fast Retailing (the top weight in the index) is also supported by strong tailwinds and solid financial performance which has clocked a 26% rise YTD (versus 19% jump in the index). If outperformance among the large Japanese firms continue, the Nikkei will continue to race at a fast pace. NIKKEI IS STARTING TO FACE HEADWINDS Despite impressive performance and bright outlook, cause for concerns exist in the near term. Rising concerns that the BoJ may exit its loose monetary policy sooner than previously expected could snap the rally. Inflation has started to rebound. Wage growth estimates are solid. Revised figures for capital spending are expected to show that the economy avoided a technical recession in Q4. The benchmark index is starting to face resistance. An earlier than expected BoJ pivot could put brakes on this rally. Some market participants expect the BoJ policy pivot as soon as the 19/March policy meeting. Most expect the pivot to occur at the 26/April meeting. A consensus on the exact meeting has not been reached among BoJ officials according to Bloomberg . HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Nikkei is benefiting from strong tailwinds. It also faces the risk of a near-term correction, particularly from anticipated strengthening of the Yen. A hypothetical long position in the Yen denominated CME Nikkei-225 index futures with an entry upon near term correction is posited for a superior reward-to-risk ratio. The following hypothetical trade setup comprising of a long position in the Nikkei-225 Yen Denominated futures expiring in June (NIYM2024) benefits in case the Nikkei-225 rises. As the payout from the position is denominated in Yen, a strengthening of the Yen will serve as an additional boost to the dollar P&L. • Entry: 37,900 • Target: 41,690 • Stop Loss: 35,000 • Profit at Target: ¥1,895,000 ( (41690 – 37900) x 500 Yen/index point) • Loss at Stop: -¥1,450,000 ( (35000 – 37900) x 500 Yen/index point) • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.3x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:NIY1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Nikkei Trading In An Impulse Sequence Favor Continuation HigherThe Short-Term Elliott Wave view in Nikkei (NKD_F) suggests that the rally from the 04 October 2023 low is unfolding in an impulse sequence favoring more upside to take place. In which the previous rally to 33780 high ended wave 1. Then a pullback to 32195 low ended wave 2. Up from there, the rally to 37010 high ended wave 3 & made a pullback in wave 4. The internals of that pullback unfolded in a double three structure. Whereas wave ((w)) ended at 35700 low. A bounce to 36290 high ended wave ((x)) and ended wave ((y)) at 35671 low. Thus completing wave 4 pullback. Up from there, the index has made a new high already above 37010 high confirming the wave 5 higher. Also, the rally from the 35671 low is unfolding in an impulse sequence where lesser degree wave (i) ended at 36535 high as a diagonal. Down from there, a lesser degree pullback to 35835 low ended wave (ii) & started the next leg higher towards 37290 high to end wave (iii). Below from there, the index is doing a short-term pullback in wave (iv) towards 36789- 36567 area lower. From there, the index is expected to resume the upside or should produce a 3 wave reaction higher as long as the pivot from 35671 low stays intact.
CME:NKD1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Nikkei (NKD_F) Looking for Further Downside CorrectionShort Term Elliott Wave view in Nikkei (NKD_F) suggests that rally to 37014 ended wave 3. Wave 4 pullback is currently in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 3, wave (a) ended at 36060 and wave (b) ended at 36590. Down from there, wave i ended at 36115 and wave ii ended at 36425. Wave iii ended at 35910, wave iv ended at 36330, and final leg wave v ended at 35700. This completed wave (c) of ((w)) in higher degree. The Index then rallied in wave ((x)) with internal subdivision as an expanded flat. Up from wave ((w)), wave (a) ended at 36290 and wave (b) ended at 35680. Wave (c) higher ended at 36410 which completed wave ((x)) in higher degree. The Index has turned lower in wave ((y)), but it still needs to break below wave ((w)) at 35700 to rule out any double correction. Down from wave ((x)), wave i ended at 35820 and wave ii ended at 36165. Expect the Index to see further downside to end wave (a) of ((y)) as an impulse. Then it should rally in wave (b) of ((y)) before turning lower again in wave (c) of ((y)) of 4. Near term, as far as pivot at 37014 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside.
CME:NKD1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Nikkei Futures (NKD_F) Reached Support AreaCycle from 10.4.2023 low in Nikkei Futures (NKD) is in progress as a 5 waves Elliott Wave diagonal. Up from 10.4.2023 low, wave 1 ended at 32690 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 30405. The Index extended higher in wave 3 towards 33870. Wave 4 ended as a zigzag structure. Down from wave 3, wave (i) ended at 33200 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 33835. Index extended lower again in wave (iii) towards 33195 and wave (iv) ended at 33585. Wave (v) lower ended at 32695 which completed wave ((a)). Corrective rally in wave ((b)) unfolded as a zigzag structure. Up from wave ((a)), wave (a) ended at 32975 and pullback in wave (b) ended at 32850. Final leg wave (c) ended at 33465 which completed wave ((b)). The Index then extended lower in wave ((c)) as a 5 waves impulse. Down from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 33335 and wave (ii) ended at 33430. Wave (iii) lower ended at 32350 and wave (iv) ended at 32505. Final leg wave (v) ended at 32211 which completed wave ((c)) of 4. Wave 5 higher is currently in progress. As far as pivot at 32211 low stays intact, expect the Index to extend higher. Break below 32211 from here suggests the Index is still in the process of ending wave 4.
CME:NKD1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Which is the best market to invest in, Asian or European?Which is the best market to invest in, Asian or European? Recent economic data do not bode well for Europe: the eurozone economy is expected to contract in the third quarter and not return to significant growth. Despite having avoided a recession following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the eurozone is struggling with several problems. Rising energy prices, high financing costs, and falling demand in export markets such as China are straining the region's economy. The European economy is currently going through a difficult phase of stalling. According to the flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the eurozone, composed by S&P Global and considered a reliable indicator of overall economic health, we are below 50 points with a reading of 47.1. This is a worrying figure that signals a negative economic condition in the region. The manufacturing sector continues to be the main obstacle, with a steadily worsening order situation. Due to high financing costs affecting the disposable income of indebted consumers, many are reducing their spending. This is also reflected in the index of new businesses in the service sector, which fell to 46.4 from 46.7, reaching its lowest level since February 2021. According to S&P Global, the two largest countries in the area led the decline in economic activity. Although the crisis is easing in Germany, the situation is worsening in France. It is well known that the German manufacturing sector has been going through a difficult period recently. The French economy has suffered a setback, with both the service and manufacturing sectors deteriorating since November 2020. Weak demand has been observed across the country, and confidence for the next 12 months has declined significantly. The French economy is heading for difficult times. Given the current economic conditions, I prefer not to invest in the U.S. (US 500) and European indices (DAX) at this time, mainly because of rising inflation and aggressive central bank policy. Betting on the Italian market (FTSE MIB) is also risky. Public debt in Italy is very high and is having a negative impact on bond yields, affecting debt costs. With a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 140 percent, Moody's (NYSE:MCO) currently ranks Italy at Baa3, just one notch above junk, with a negative outlook. Currently, I am focusing my investments on the Asian market, particularly the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng index. In Japan, inflation is under control and interest rates are negative. In China, after eight years, the government has resumed buying stocks, and even if only slightly, we have seen a lowering of interest rates. I also follow Bitcoin and mining companies closely. With the possible approval of ETFs underway and the growing acceptance of Bitcoin by companies-the latest to join was Ferrari-there is a strong likelihood of seeing new price records by 2024.
OSE:NK2251!Long
by Antonio_Ferlito