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A bearlish scenario for Gold Gold faces many obstacles, but recession fears could help... The gold market tumbled $40 Thursday and briefly fell below the $1,700 an ounce level as markets began to price in an oversized 100-basis-point rate hike from the Federal Reserve at the July meeting. Rate hike expectations were quickly re-priced after the latest U.S. inflation numbers shocked the markets, with the annual CPI number coming in at 9.1% and the yearly PPI rising 11.3% in June. Before inflation data, markets were looking for a nearly 100% chance of a 75-basis-point hike at the Fed's July 27 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. However, within 24 hours after the numbers were released, the expectations shifted to an 80.9% chance of a 100-basis-point hike. This would take the fed funds rate to a range of 2.50%-2.75%. "Only yesterday morning, the market had just finally priced in a full 75bp rate hike in July for the first time. In a few hours, an above-consensus U.S. CPI reading and a surprise 100bp rate hike by the Bank of Canada changed the whole picture again. After these two events, markets have moved to seriously consider a 1.0% rate increase by the Fed in two weeks," said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING. The Bank of Canada surprised the markets with a 100-basis-point hike on Wednesday, warning that inflation will remain elevated for the next three months. "The Bank of Canada made the leap into triple-digit hikes shortly after the U.S. CPI release, acknowledging in the process that it had underestimated inflation since Spring last year," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.
AMEX:GLDLong
by UnknownUnicorn38289576
/GC hit my low todayThis may NOT work at all, but back on March 26th I "asked" in meditation, or quiet time, "What is the next low in /GC?" Answer was 1839. I don't track gold every day or anything, but when I looked today I noticed price has gottent to the drawing on my chart for a low at 1839! So it was exciting to see the LOD is actually 1838.70 and it's bounced since. Anything can happen, of course, but I do have some other information to look for a move up in miners in June. So maybe this is the start of it. I hope, but this should be a longer term low if it works.
AMEX:GLDLong
by JenRz
Long GLD/ Short FinancialsGold to outperform financials if economy continues to slow. Financials may be vulnerable to a pull back given the slowing economic backdrop and interest rate vol. Financials essentially have a short strangle on interest rates as higher rates commonly reduce lending and slows economic growth. While lower rates reduce earnings on loans and pools capital to only the most credit worthy borrowers. They perform well in a "sweet" spot. Gold has favourable macro economic back drop (although has been disappointing lately) and usually outperforms relative to other risk assets in vol shock.
AMEX:GLD
by UnknownUnicorn3051734
Buy the dips? So, I am sick with the Rona and needed a low stress trade today. Traded GLD twice and there was no skill. I literally just bought the dips. That's it. No TA. No math. Just literally bought the dips. My trades are listed below, I still have a couple runners: But this made me think. Is GLD 2022 version of 2021 SPY? Can you literally just buy the dips? Of course, I have to answer that question with statistics. If you bought the dips since January of this year on GLD, here would be your outcome: (For clarity, I define a "dip" as a drop below VWAP on the 5 minute chart. For this theoretical case study, I assume you would enter on confirmation that the dip had bottomed and was beginning its ascent and you would take profit at a retest of VWAP or slightly over VWAP). You would have been successful 73.1% of the of time. You would have had to stop out 14 times, or 26.9% of the time. The remaining days there was no drop below VWAP and thus no dip to buy. A little deja vu-y with SPY in 2021, no? Only I think in 2021 with SPY, you would have had to stop out 0 times LOL! Your average return per share would have been 0.94 cents (SD = 0.53). If you traded shares and traded a conservative 100 shares at a time, your gross profit would be: $1,316 Minus stop outs (set at 20%) would be roughly 263.20. For a net profit of $1,052.80. Interesting! Let's face it, SPY was so 2021. GLD is where its at now! (Please note, this is for INFORMATION purposes only, I do not advocate such a strategy! It would be ridiculous and reckless. Do your due diligence before entering any given trade!).
AMEX:GLDLong
by Steversteves
5
ABC BullishPossible stop under C or where you see support. Several green candles up and appears the green candles become smaller (Sometimes known as deliberation.) On Friday, a small red candle appears. The target is D. If AB ends up equaling CD, then you can move the AB leg and extend it from C. The CD leg is often a lesser or greater fib level of AB and not always equal, but projecting the AB leg from C using the magnet, can give you a ballpark guesstimate. Targets are calculated using the AB leg and fib levels. The fib retracement tool cam help you with this pattern. The 0 fib level would line up with C if it is indeed an ABC pattern, which is a pull back pattern. The longer term DMAs (simple) are in order with key bullish crossovers marked with a green X. The shorter term DMAs (red, white & blue) or William's Alligator is also in chronological order. For some reason this just feels right (o: No recommendation. Forget the past, but never forget the lesson.
AMEX:GLDLong
by lauralea
4