GLD potential longmaby last leg up of this ascending broadening wedge to ath's then crash would be nice although markets looking unsure
O87 trade ideas
Closing (IRA): GLD May 21st 155 Short Put... for a .17/contract debit.
Notes: Pre-vacation profit-taking/cleanup. In for 1.62/contract (See Post Below), out for .17 here; 1.45 ($145) profit/contract. Will re-up if we get weakness back to 155 or below. Still have May 163's, June 149's, and July 145's.
GLD Long SwingGold assets have fallen out of favor in recent months and the price is well off its highs. Price closed above a significant level that acted as resistance back in April and May of 2020 and the same level acted as support in November 2020.
GLD double bottomed in March at the $157 level and trended up since then.
With the RSI in check, MACD positive and the current price in close proximity to the POC line YTD I feel this is a good entry point especially given the increased talk of inflation risk.
Targeting: $171, $179, $183
inflation/correction hedgethe new bull structure in gold has begun, by evidence the GDX a little over cooked in the short term, but I'm liking the GLD for a nice stable long run up ~20% by November 2021. Sure, it might take a breather if there's some return to sanity in markets, etc, but this one is great for an easy night's rest while markets puke their brains out for a couple months.
The Plan Ahead: GLD Levels/Strategic Acquisition Via Short PutGenerally speaking, I'm a premium seller, taking advantage of high implied volatility to sell options to take a position in an underlying without actually getting into shares of stock. GLD, however, isn't particularly known for its volatility and therefore isn't the greatest standalone premium selling play. As of the writing of this post, 30-day implied is at 15.6%, which isn't exactly something to write home about. Consequently, while I am selling premium in GLD, I consider what I'm doing as more in the nature of a directional shot on weakness as a opposed to a pure "tons of room to be wrong" premium selling play and because of this, actually look at a GLD chart from time to time to consider whether given weakness is weakness I'm looking for and whether selling a put at a given strike "lines up" with given price action and is in an area in which I'd be comfortable with acquiring shares.
Pictured here is my full GLD ladder, with puts sold or rolled at various points in time. As is apparent from price action, I may have gotten a bit too aggressive with the 163, but was a little more thoughtful with the other rungs where I sold on weakness back to ~155, which is apparent support/resistance running back to June of 2020 and even got some longer dated contracts on where the 20 delta was coincident with lower support resistance in the vicinity of 147.
So, in a nutshell, here's the plan ahead:
a) Obviously, I'm going to have to manage the 163's. I don't like the level particularly as an acquisitional price point, since it's now apparent that the market will give me opportunities for cheaper, if not at 155, then even farther below at 147. Consequently, I'll look to roll the 163's down a smidge and out in time in the event that price doesn't stick above that level running into the May 21st expiry. Although my mindset is to generally talk myself into being "fine" with acquiring shares at the price point any given short point represents, I regularly revisit whether I have changed my mind given what has occurred since I got filled, and here, well, I'd rather be in shares at a lower price. As a result, I'm going to stay in the options for the time being, which I can kind of massage and manipulate via roll -- something I can't do if I get into stock, where my cost basis reduction technique is limited to selling call against.
b) On weakness back to 155, sell puts. Where? Well, I generally like room to be wrong, so it's likely to be ~20 delta, 45 days until expiry or greater. Those puts will be clear of the 155 and -- ideally, clear of that lower support/resistance at ~147, but we'll have to see when and if we get there where a 20 delta strike in the next expiry or expiries 45 days or greater line up.
For those without the buying power to go full on naked, consider spreading with the short put leg at the 20. For example, the June 18th 154/159 short put vertical with the short leg at the 20 delta was paying .57 ($57) as of Friday close on buying power of 4.42, a 13.1% ROC at max. Not that I'm going to do that here (again, waiting for 155), but pricing out the spread gives me an idea as to where I'll have to set up my tent in the event I want to get at least 10% out of the spread, and that's with at least a ~20 delta short leg.
GLD LongDouble bottom
SMA13/50 as support
OBV Crossed OBV SMA34
W%R crossed -50
Entry 166.5
Stop 162
Target 183
I am not a PRO trader. I trade option to test my trading plan with small cost.
The max Risk of each plan is less than 1% of my account.
If you like this idea, please use SIM/Demo account to try it.
Long GOLD @ 166 as a trade to hedge the melt UP or correctionsIn a world of billions and billions have been created by digital technology only, without real assets to back it up, Gold seems to be a sensible hedge. Technically it is forming a buyable bottom, with a target of $180.
Gold is hated and I never liked it more.The weekly chart of gold is a giant cup and handle, looking extremely bullish. There is a double bottom that printed on the shorter term charts which is a good sign. Everyone hates gold right now which is a good sign it bottomed, similar to BTC at the 3k levels last bear market. Money printing is still continuing at a rapid rate so it's just a matter of time before gold busts back into its all time highs and people start to like it again.
Gold is getting ready to break the current trendGold is currently in a big downtrend that began back in August 2020.
Despite that, recently it has been forming a possible bottom. RSI is forming a bullish divergence that is pointing Gold going up.
I still want it to confirm it breaking through 163$, the red trendline and the 200WMA. It's going to be hard, it may take weeks, but if it can break those levels we can see Gold back at the ATH.
Until we see all that I am neutral.
Gold breaking those levels could also mean harder times for stocks and even Bitcoin.
I think it is key to watch in what direction will Gold break the current short term lateral movement.
Have fun and be careful out there!
Rolling (IRA): GLD April 21st 164 Short Put to May 21st 163... for a 1.26/contract credit.
Notes: Strike improving a little bit here while collecting a credit with 10 days to go in the April contract. Total credits collected of 3.97/contract with a cost basis of 159.03.
Look who broke out of that falling wedge - GLDDXY pulling back from resistance as well. Gold bugs rejoice!
Call debit spread - GLDBuy a call debit spread Gold, just to hedge my portfolio, with a low IV rank hence why I did a debit spread.
Anything below 20 IV Rank is when I do a debit spread, and Gold has been smashed to the down side.
Its below my 160 call, so I just have to wait until it goes back up to 160, if it drops more then I have to roll credit call below 160.
Opening (IRA): GLD July 16th 145 Short Put... for a 1.38/contract credit.
Notes: Here, I'm looking to establish a GLD position and/or acquire shares via short put ladder. Currently, I've got the April 16th 164's, May 21st 155's, and June 18th 149's in addition to this rung. I'm looking to acquire shares, so am fine with getting assigned and selling call against as part of a portfolio largely consisting of broad market (SPY, IWM, QQQ, DIA), treasuries/bonds (TLT, HYG, EMB, AGG), and precious metals (SLV, GLD).
GOLD - An IntroductionChecking in on Gold to see if there is a correlation to BTC. It is in the wake of Diamond that broke bear with a hint of an inverse H&S on the longer frame.
How to use the RSIHi guys, today I will be explaining how to use the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to your advantage. First of all if you have not already, please follow me. Okay, so the RSI is commonly said to buy when oversold and sell when it is overbought. However, this strategy does not always work, and can result in you predicting what the security will do.
First Step: You should first check to see if the RSI is making higher lows, or lower lows. This is important because it can show whether the asset has strong buying pressure or weak buying pressure. I call it buying pressure because the index essentially represents the demand for it. So, why would you short something, when tons of people are buying in? However, the index can work short term, if you are day trading, but does not work as well for swing traders. If you see a rising RSI it is a good sign, and the opposite for a falling.
Second Step: This is a step where most people don't do, but I think is very important. The step is to check whether or not the asset has an RSI that is hitting overbought, or hitting oversold. In this example, Gold is hit oversold two times. This proves how weak gold is and why it could have a breakdown. Another thing to check in this step is if it stops falling at the oversold level and does not fall beneath. If this occurs, it is a great sign because it shows that the asset is strong. For Gold, it had done that, and if you had spotted that you could have made 40%! In sum, the second step is to see if the asset is hitting overbought levels (good), or hitting oversold levels (bad).
Third Step: The next step is to draw support and resistance levels, look at other indicators, etc. You could even look at fundamental data to support your technical data.
Last step: Your last step is to place you limit order, and or stop order.
Thanks for viewing guys, and please like and follow. Thanks!
GLD about to break!Hey guys, if today I am doing GLD, and showing how it could be a really cool short. Firstly, lets start with the background. So, because of all the inflationary items like stimulus checks, relief items, and other things that have helped our economy come back from a crash, it has helped commodities. This is because when the dollar becomes less valuable as there is more inflation, Gold naturally rose to combat this. Anyway, it peaked in august and has been falling since. In the end of February, it had the 200 MA cross above the 50 MA, which is the most bearish you can get, but also broke through the support. Luckily, GLD has another support level right beneath it. People are now saying that it is a good buy because it is at a really good support level, but I would say the opposite for a few reasons.
Technical Analysis: Firstly, when the stock came back up to test the resistance level which had acted as its former support, it never came above it. Keep in mind that the stock is still at the resistance level, so it is not as definite, but technically it does not look like it will break above it. Secondly, the 200 MA broke above the 50 MA and this is the most bearish it can get. Also, the 200 Moving average is sloping down, and this has not happened in over a year. The 20/50 MA are also sloping down, but they are not as important as the 200 MA. Thirdly, the RSI which to me is a measure of the buying pressure of the stock has ben moving down the last few months. Recently, it has also been hitting oversold conditions, which is also very bearish because it shows that the stock is getting weak. This proves how weak GLD is.
Fundamental Analysis: Firstly, we have rising rates that are combating the inflation rate. Secondly, as our economy improves and rates keep inching higher, our dollar will recover. When the dollar rises it is terrible for commodities because cash is getting more expensive and this is why prices fall.
Intermarket Analysis: I wanted to add this in because I thought it would be really cool. Anyways, historically the Yen is very correlated with Gold. So, if you saw my chart, the Yen had ben rising for a few months but has recently broke below support. It has been falling more and more the last couple of weeks. This shows us that the same could happen to GLD since they are so correlated.
This is all, but please like and follow. Thanks!
