SPY: ThoughtsJust my thoughts.
Not a very involved analysis this week because I honestly feel like for once in maybe 2 years the chart is pretty clear on SPY haha.
Not advice!
Have a great weekend and a great trading week :-).
S27 trade ideas
Dinosaur Strategy, SPY is going down!According to my Dinosaur strategy, we can see resistance at the dinosaur's head. It's time to hold your CASH, PEOPLE! GET YOUR CASH READY AND PUT YOUR SEATBELTS ON!
SPY 1d swing strategy backtestSimple algorthmic swing strategy for SPY
posting just to show off its performance
LuxAlgo
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-7-25: Carryover PatternAs many of you know, I'm still expecting a breakdown in the markets leading to my Deep-V pattern on the 9th and the secondary Major Bottom on the 10th.
Why haven't we started to move downward yet? I really don't know. I suspect the markets are being pushed higher by Market Makers trying to crush the shorts (premium).
Either way, we'll know how this is going to play out over the next 5+ days.
If I'm right, we'll see the SPY break downward towards 580-590 over the next 5+ days.
The QQQ should move down 510-515 throughout that same breakdown (possibly a bit lower).
I expect Gold and Silver to also move downward if this breakdown in the SPY/QQQ happens as I expect. Metals tend to move downward when the SPY/QQQ makes a sudden impulsive breakdown move.
Bitcoin also appears to be poised for a breakdown event.
It seems that all the indexes and symbols I follow in the morning video are already standing near the edge of a cliff, just waiting to jump off.
I urge traders to move into a protective mode (protecting open longs and hedging against any breakdown event) over the next 5-10+ days.
We'll eventually see another bounce/rally off some lows, but right now, everything looks ready to JUMP (off the cliff).
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-11 : GAP DefenderThe GAP Defender pattern is where price struggles to maintain a recent open GAP - attempting to defend against closing that GAP.
In my mind, this is the lower GAP window between 601.30 and 602.75 (yesterday's opening GAP range).
If this recent gap is filled, then I suggest the SPY will attempt to move downward (into my Deep-V breakdown) trying to target the lower GAP near 584.29.
Watch Gold and Silver as they continue to breakdown. Any big breakdown in metals should be considered a warning sign the markets are moving into a PANIC phase (selling).
We have lots of news today (Powell and other Fed members testifying) while we just found out Trump initiated a larger tariff on steel. I believe the strength of the US Dollar will continue to put pressure on global currencies - possibly leading to even more foreign market distress. This may result in a broader global market breakdown over the next 5-10 trading days.
Remember, we have the Deep-V pattern setting up this week and another Major Bottom pattern setting up on Feb 21. I interpret this as a dual-breakdown event - where price attempts to move downward and tries to identify solid support.
Bitcoin will likely follow this trend downward over the next 5 to 10+ days.
Buckle up.
It looks like today may be the day my Deep-V breakdown starts to drive prices lower for the SPY/QQQ and other major sectors.
We'll see how things play out.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY Options - Bull & Bear | February Week 2We have been range bound the last three weeks. Sellers are starting to exhaust buyers more quickly than before. We are leaning bearish but confirmation is king. We use 15-30 minute candle closes for confirmation and stop-loss.
Should there be a significant pullback, $580 and $560 are major floors of support.
Here are our bull and bear options for this week:
$600 PUT 2/24
Entry: Confirmation of breakdown under $603.44 (OR harsh rejection at $606)
🎯Target: $600 ($603.44)
$608 CALL 2/24
Entry: Confirmation of breakout over $606
🎯Target: $607, $608
Here's how last week's options went:
📜 AMEX:SPY $605 Call 2/21
$500 → $770 (+54%)
📜 AMEX:SPY $605 Call 2/18
$350 → $645 (+84%)
The SPY will go up for the rest of the weekThe market will go up for the next 3 more days.
I am using the Heikin Ashi candlesticks. Why Heikin Ashi candlesticks?
1) They show more of a directional movement within candlesticks.
2) They tend to filter out the market noise so you can see the market direction better.
3) It reduces false signals, allowing you to stay in the trade longer.
4) And, it gives you a smoother appearance making it easier to see trends and reversals. (This information is from Dr. Keith Wade who speaks at the Wealth365 Summits.)
Typically, I would wait until there are 2 green Heikin Ashi green candlesticks before entering.
I still tend to switch back and forth between Heikin Ashi candlesticks and regular candlesticks since regular candlesticks are what I am familiar with and have been using since I started trading.
I use the MacD, the Stock RSI and the DMI to assist me with the direction of the market. I am not perfect at them. I will hopefully try to explain these in future trading charts.
I personally find:
* the 5 minute indicators typically represents what will happen in the next half and hour.
* the 10 minute indicators typically represents what will happen in the next hour.
* the 30 minute indicators typically represents what will happen in the daily.
* and, the hour indicators typically represents what will happen in the next week.
I am anticipating a bull trend for the next few days as the 30 min, 1 hour, 2 hour, 3 hour and 4 hour indicators are already looking bullish.
I have a few targets. In the past I have said the market is usually moving about 34 points, but I think it will make a less of a move this time due to the Stock RSI only being slightly lower as it is not starting close to 0.
If you look at some of the past moves, the market moved around 20 points such as from July 1 to July 16, Oct 7 to Oct 17 and Nov. 20 to Dec 6th. As well, if you look at the Stock RSI on the daily charts, it has only declined a little. So even if it turns soon, it only has a little way to go upward. As well, it is hitting a resistance around 610. I think the market will bounce back and forth between 610 and 590 for a few more weeks.
Typically, I would wait until there are 2 green Heikin Ashi green candlesticks before entering.
The targets I have in place are:
20 point move = 610.42
1 Fibonacci move = 610.59
5 day move = Feb 7
If it hits one of these targets, I am out of my trade. And I will even shave a little off, so if it hits 609, I will be out.
My stops are:
1) the low of the previous Heikin Ashi candlestick,
2) 2 red Heikin Ashi candlesticks,
3) a specific dollar amount for a total loss for my trade or
4) a specific dollar amount per contract.
If it hits one of those stops, I am out of my trade.
Lastly, I believe tomorrow it may go lower as I find the 3rd day typically moves sideways or goes lower. And some of the shorter term indicators are looking weak.
I really encourage you to draw a chart yourself. The first chart is the most nerve racking, but I have learned the most through drawing charts.
I am trying to take trading classes through Udemy, mostly because they are cheap. LOL! I usually wait for a sale where the courses are as low as $14.99 instead of over $100 per course. They have sales a few times per year. Just keep checking the website. I am NOT affiliated with this company in any way. I am just trying to tell you where I have found cheaper courses online to learn more. www.udemy.com
I always try to attend Wealth365 Summit which is held about 4 times a year where I always pick up some more useful information. Again, I am not affiliated with this company in any way. www.wealth365.com
My chart is not guaranteed and I am still learning. Trade at your own risk.
Happy trading everyone!
SPY Put coming?I see a possible pull back to $570 area. Also an Area of interest at $545. I dont know what news is going to drop it but my technical analysis of the chart shows a downward move. GL
Elliott Wave View: SPY Looking to Resume HigherShort Term Elliott Wave View in SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) suggests pullback to 575.04 ended wave ((4)). The ETF has resumed higher in wave ((5)) with internal subdivision as 5 waves impulse. Up from wave ((4)), wave ((i)) ended at 585.99 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 578.35. From there, wave (i) ended at 583.81 and wave (ii) ended at 578.90. Wave (iii) higher ended at 595.56 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 590.35. Final wave (v) ended at 607.7 which completed wave ((iii)). Pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 604.67 and wave ((v)) higher ended at 610.78. This completed wave 1 in higher degree.
The ETF then pullback in wave 2 with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave ((b)) ended at 609.96 as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((a)), wave (w) ended at 605.96 and wave (x) ended at 599.22. Wave (y) higher ended at 609.96 which completed wave ((b)) in higher degree. The ETF turned lower in wave ((c)) towards 589.5 which completed wave 2 in higher degree. It has turned higher in wave 3. Near term, as far as pivot at 575.04 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for more upside.
$SPY February 11, 2025AMEX:SPY February 11, 2025
15 Minutes.
AMEX:SPY faced resistance around 604-605 levels being 61.8% retracement number.
We have 3 values.
The rise from 600.05 to 605.5
The last rise from 603.21 to 605.5
And the fib extension 600.05 to 605.36 to 603.21
For the first rise important to hold 602 levels to continue uptrend.
For the second number being the latest rise must hold today 604 levels.
A close below 604 will be supported by 602 levels. So not a day to short.
If we take the extension move, we have targets between 606 to 608 today.
Once 608 is broken and held at least 15 minutes the target will be 611-612 levels.
$SPY February 12, 2025AMEX:SPY February 12, 2025
15 Minutes
Yesterday Gap down not held.
Low was not broken.
For the last rise 603.1 to 605.85 4SPY need to hold 604 levels today for uptrend to continue.
On downside we have strong support at 603 levels being 200 average and 9 day moving average in daily and 600-601 being 21 days in daily.
So, I see a range trade today between 603 to 606.5 ot 607 levels on upside.
4HR FVG told us early So in looking back to the four hour chart today, it was super interesting to see how we feLL right back into the 50% FVG from yesterday's bullish run up. I saw this set up on the four hour timeframe and it's just interesting how these confluences can align with each other.
My bullish fvg is blue and bearish is purple
SPY is forming a triangle ...My previous chart may still be valid, but I will build on it with a new chart. We are seeing a triangle formation with the tip forming on Feb. 12. We should see the market breakout, either up or down before the tip. (I typically switch to the hourly charts when drawing my triangle formations to get a more precise drawing. But oftentimes, that will make the lines on the daily chart not match up exactly.)
I am NOT a fundamental trader (I am a technical trader) but I find the technical indicators tend to coincide with fundamental reasonings or explanations. Donald Trump stated on Friday, Feb 7th, he will announce tariffs on many countries next week so it would make sense that the market would move next week following the announcement.
From a technical trading point of view, the market could go up or down closer to the tip of the triangle. Breakouts of triangle pattern usually occur 2/3 to 3/4 of the triangle length, so the SPY could move outside the triangle before the tip (Feb 28).
The triangle pattern is usually considered a continuation pattern which means the market will continue in the direction it was moving before the triangle started. This pattern should usually have at least 5 touches of support and resistance. (You can get any of this information from the internet.)
I think there are 3 aspects to trading:
1) Being able to read the charts so you have an idea where the market is going.
2) Being able to choose the correct trade strategy for the market conditions. You do not want to put a bullish trade when the market is bearish and vice versa. There are also certain trades where you can make money when the market is trading sideways with a non-directional trading strategy or a different trade if the market is extremely volatile. You can apply an iron condor, a credit spread, debit spread or butterfly trade depending on the market conditions. All trading strategies have their own risks and rewards.
3) Knowing details, both the positives and negatives about your brokerage which can really elevate your trading.
MORE THEORY … which I have stated before.
I am using the Heikin Ashi candlesticks. Why Heikin Ashi candlesticks?
1) They show more of a directional movement within candlesticks.
2) They tend to filter out the market noise so you can see the market direction better.
3) It reduces false signals, allowing you to stay in the trade longer.
4) And, it gives you a smoother appearance making it easier to see trends and reversals. (This information is from Dr. Keith Wade who speaks at the Wealth365 Summits.)
I personally find:
* the 5 minute indicators typically represent what will happen in the next half and hour.
* the 10 minute indicators typically represent what will happen in the next hour.
* the 30 minute indicators typically represent what will happen in the daily.
* and, the hour indicators typically represent what will happen in the next week.
Typically, I would wait until there are 2 green Heikin Ashi green candlesticks before entering.
I still tend to switch back and forth between Heikin Ashi candlesticks and regular candlesticks since regular candlesticks are what I am familiar with and have been using since I started trading.
I use the MacD, the Stock RSI and the DMI to assist me with the direction of the market. I am not perfect at them. I will hopefully try to explain these in future trading charts.
I am trying to take trading classes through Udemy, mostly because they are cheap. I usually wait for a sale where the courses are as low as $14.99 instead of paying over $100 per course during the rest of the year. As well, you may be able to get access to Udemy through your local library depending on where you live. www.udemy.com
I always try to attend the free Wealth365 Summit which is held about 4 times a year where I always pick up some more useful information. I believe the next week long summit will be around April. Again, I am not affiliated with this company in any way. www.wealth365.com
I really like writing up these charts and always learn something new with each chart I draw. The first one is always the hardest but I encourage everyone to draw a chart at least once. Drawing charts was one of the best things I did to improve my trading. Don’t be afraid to make a mistake. Mistakes don't need to be avoided or feared. They help move you forward.
Happy trading, everyone!
Selling SPY after signs of lost of momentumSPY has once again tested the ATH level, marking its third approach to this price zone and, once again, making a reversal candle. It feels like the market may be losing momentum, so I’ve decided to set up a bear put spread trade that would benefit from a potential decline within the next 42 days. All information is available on the chart.
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders for Feb 10 2AMEX:SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders for Feb 10 2025
Alright, so 35EMA is right at the 30min 200MA. This is a critical level and in SPX we’re bearish already and looking for a follow through.
Expected move today 595-606
5 Day moving average underneath us and 1hr 200MA in range as well.
Downtrend above everything - and a red signal line.
I’m looking for a close near the 50DMA.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-3-25 : Breakaway PatternOn a day like today, where the markets broke down with a huge GAP downward, what can I say except...
Just like I predicted.
For months I've been warning of the Jan 21-23 Inauguration peak/top that will lead to a Deep-V breakdown on Feb 9-12. And, like clockwork, the markets peaked just after January 23 and rolled downward into the breakdown phase - headed towards my Deep-V base/bottom setup near Feb 9-12.
At this point, I'm just going to sit back and collect my profits. You should be doing the same thing today - BOOK those profits.
Gold and Silver are moving into an upward CRUSH pattern. It could be very explosive.
Bitcoin has broken downward again - just like I predicted.
Over the next 30+ days, the markets will enter a very volatile and rotating price phase. Be prepared for wild price rotations.
This is a true trader's market. Go get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-7-25: Where's The Deep-VShortly after I created the morning video, the markets opened with a BANG.
First rallying, then rolling over - just as I predicted.
Granted, I never expected the markets to rally above 606 before rolling downward, but the breakdown move into a potential Deep-V looks to be playing out very nicely right now.
Come Monday (2-10), and possibly carrying into the 13th, we could see a very sharp deep-V type price move that pushes the SPY below 580 for a period of time.
That could be a very big move from the 606+ levels we saw this morning.
And you know I'll be saying, "Just as I predicted," for at least 3 to 5 days starting early next week if that happens.
Again, I put my research out to the public like this to either live or die by my work. Very few people are able to do this - or they flip/flop all the time (every 2-3 hours).
My research is different. I'm really trying to make a difference by telling traders what to expect now and in the future.
I know I'm starting to make a difference for many people because I'm getting emails and messages from individuals who use my research to identify great trade opportunities.
Are you going to be the next person to share your success story with me?
Remember, have a safe weekend and GET SOME come Monday morning.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY February 6, 2025AMEX:SPY February 6, 2025
15 Minutes.
Yesterday we had 604 levels.
Today for the rise 598.58 to 604.36 holding 602 levels we can expect 605-606 levels as initial target.
Once 606 is held i expect 609-610 levels tomorrow or by Friday.
AMEX:SPY is above all moving averages.
At the moment uptrend intact as long AMEX:SPY above 598 levels being the last LL.
Not for shorting today as per chart at the moment.
The top of channel is around 610 levels for the day on time.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update - Watching Paint Dry...Today's market seems to be trapped in a "go nowhere" zone.
Get thread though. The markets will react to my Deep-V and Breakdown patterns with some aggression in the near future (24 to 48+ hours).
Buckle up.
This is going to get very interesting as the SPY attempts to move down to 585-590 - or lower.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 2-5-25 Update : Rally PatternRight now, the markets continue to struggle to move higher. We are seeing a solid upward price trend, but I'm watching the MNQ and metals for any signs of weakness.
At this stage of the market's price action, I'm cautiously waiting for the ROLLOVER to setup.
My patterns suggest we move into a Counter-Trend Rally phase tomorrow (which would be a downward trending bar).
I believe the end of the trading day may see a very solid Long-Squeeze (trending downward) today.
And, as of right now - I'm just sitting on my trades, waiting for the Rollover to happen.
I would not suggest taking any big long trades right now unless you are prepared for the risks.
Sometimes, this is what trading is all about.
Looks like things are going to get very exciting over the next 3-5+ days.
GET SOME.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY Today’s Trading Range, y’all
Alright so options has today’s trading range quite small, just .66%. And these are the levels going through it. Those of you that have been following for a while know exactly how to read this so I’m going to leave it at that since I’m a little pressed for time this morning!!
S&P 500 Forecast for 2025: Insights from Stock Market CyclesAMEX:SPY
CME_MINI:ES1!
SP:SPX
January Barometer: The month of January has already closed with a net gain over December. Therefore, in accordance with the January Barometer this suggests a positive year.
First Five Days Indicator: The first five trading days being positive further supports this outlook. Although they were barely positive at +0.6% it still counts.
December Low Indicator: This indicator is bearish if the December low is taken out in Q1 of the year. Unfortunately, the December low was already breached in January, which adds a note of caution. We now have two bullish indicators and one negative indicator.
Presidential Cycle: With 2025 being the first year of a presidential term, historically this has been bearish for the stock market. It brings uncertainty, which may temper expectations. This is the year where presidents typically enact changes and tough fiscal measures, although president Trump may prove to be atypical here; especially if he enacts any of his tax policies, rate cuts or large government spending programs this year. So, while this indicator is bearish, it has a caveat given how unorthodox Trump is as a president. For example, in 2016 the stock market was very volatile but still gained 10% under Trump’s first term year.
Outlook: Combining these factors, the outlook for 2025 is cautiously optimistic. While the January barometer and the first 5 days indicator point to a positive year, the breach of the December low coupled with this being the first-year of a presidential cycle suggests a volatile to bearish year. When combining all indicators we arrive at the conclusion that we are in for a volatile RANGE year. The bulls and bears will battle it out in a tug of war. While January-April tend to be seasonally bullish, May-October tend to be bearish. November and December are seasonally bullish too. So whether the year closes with a slight gain or slight loss isn’t the focus. The best approach for this year is to capitalize on the swings. Therefore, mean reversion strategies (buy low, sell high) are ideal. Momentum and breakout strategies should be avoided. Finally, avoid being caught in a drawdown in the May-October period and position yourself to capitalize on the Nov-Dec seasonally bullish period.
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders Feb 13
OK - so the 30min 200MA AND 35EMA are right in the middle of the trading range. Literally just right in the middle so it’s gonna be a battle today.
Top of the implied move is 608 and the downtrend line is there off of all time highs. Friday’s top of the implied move is 609
Underneath - 50 Day Moving average, 1hr 200MA and stupid Willy is looking kind of sickly, lol.
You can just look at this chart and see the sideways price action here.
Let's Go, y'all!! 💃🏻
