Friday updateSPY likely put in an ABC, I expect lower for most of today. Gold probably higher for now. Oil is just consolidating. NG looks like a buy. BTC i think will breakdown under 100k over the weekend.
S27 trade ideas
SPY GEX & Technical Setup – Aiming for Gamma Lift-Off?GEX Outlook (June 24, 2025):
SPY is sitting right on top of a major Gamma Wall at 607–610, with high net positive GEX and strong Call Wall stacking above. The 2nd Call Wall (609) and GEX10 (611) suggest bullish optionality remains intact if SPY can hold above 605.
* GEX Sentiment: 🟢🟢🟢🟢
* IVR: 13.7 (low implied volatility rank, bullish)
* IVx Avg: 16.7
* Put Walls: Strong support at 595 and 591
* Call Pressure: Builds up from 605 to 611
📌 This is a prime environment for long CALLs, especially for traders expecting momentum continuation through 607+.
Price Action (1H): Smart Money Concepts Perspective
* Break of Structure (BOS) confirmed at ~606
* Retest held strong near 600.15–604.45, validating support
* Clear bullish CHoCH and BOS sequence with strong volume
* Current candle consolidation inside a small supply zone near 607 (possible pause before continuation)
Support Zones:
* 604.45: First line of defense
* 600.15: Breaker block retest
* 591.90: Ultimate bear invalidation zone
Resistance Targets:
* 610: Next major target (2nd Call Wall)
* 611+: GEX10/extension zone for squeeze
🔍 Trade Idea (Scalp or Swing)
Bullish Scenario (CALLs setup):
* Entry: On retest of 604.5–605 zone
* Target: 610–611 (Gamma zone breakout)
* Stop: Below 600.15
* Options Play: Buy 610C 0DTE/1DTE if intraday bounce confirmed above 605 or breakout continuation above 607
Bearish Reversal?
* Only if SPY breaks below 600 with momentum + volume. Otherwise, dip = opportunity.
Summary:
SPY is riding a strong bullish structure with GEX favoring upward pressure. As long as 604–605 holds, dips are for buying. Watch 607–610 for breakout confirmation. Options market flow supports further upside if volatility remains controlled.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence before trading.
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Price Bouncing Up from Support after NewsSPY (S&P500 ETF) price has bounced up from the $593 support level after recent global news (de-escalation news).
Price action has slowed and consolidated in June 2025, and the S&P500 is still maintaining a price uptrend.
The 50EMA and 20EMA Golden Cross is still active and in progress (since May 2025).
The next stock market earnings season is not for another 3 months. Inflation, interest rate news, global events, government news, corporate news will continue to affect price volatility this summer.
Resistance Levels: $604, $610, $612, $619.
Support Levels: $600, $593, $586, $579.
SPY 500 BreadthCurrently see weakness on the breadth of the S&P500. We go back below the 9-EMA and could head back down to the gap-fill area. For now I'm working on my watchlist and looking for potential bounces on leading stocks.
(No) IdeaWhy the handle of "The Uncertain Trader"? Let's check the daily SPY (S&P 500 ETF) chart just after the close of 17 Jun 2025;
I've got no idea where this thing is going.
Thus the handle.
No one has any idea where this is going. If they insist they do they are selling you something. In the words of Brad Hamilton, "Learn it. Know it. Live it".
However, one must form a hypothesis to trade from, right or wrong. And TradingView has excellent tools to do so AND a FREE social network to share such theories.
Back to SPY, I have my suspicions;
SPY closed at 597.53, below it's all-time high of 611.39 (gray line and box) from Feb 19 and above it's 200 day simple moving average of 577.41 (purple line and box). Besides some support at 595.48 (arrow), which is way too close to be useful, and maybe resistance at Wed's high (also too close), there's really no other obvious support or resistance. So, it's ~14 points to the solid resistance at that significant high and ~20 points to support. If one goes long it's 20 points to be proven wrong, 14 points to the good and where the trade will likely stall - not a good reward to risk. Going short is a little better, with 20 points to support with 14 points of risk, but still a rather meager reward to risk.
And now factor in an FOMC meeting tomorrow (Wed 18th). SPY could easily hit one of those marks (2.3% up, 3.4% down), or both, tomorrow afternoon.
The (safer) play is to hold off, stay neutral, and let SPY resolve this, up or down. Let it test/hold it's all-time high or it's 200-day.
Again, I have no idea where this is going - just my theory.
And please, read the following and, again, "Learn it. Know it. Live it";
My ideas here on TradingView are for educational purposes only. It is NOT trading advice. I often lose money and you would be a fool to follow me blindly.
$SPY // June 17 2025 // CPI Analysis & Targets for Day TradersAMEX:SPY // June 17 2025 // CPI Analysis & Targets for Day Traders
$SPY – Bearish Momentum Meets Spiral Timing🌀 AMEX:SPY – Spiral Timing, Macro Tension, and Bearish Momentum Brewing
Not financial advice. Short-term sentiment shifted bearish.
I’ve been tracking AMEX:SPY using both Fibonacci retracements and Fib spirals across the daily and weekly timeframes, and we’re now at a critical inflection zone. My sentiment has shifted more cautiously bearish in the short term, while acknowledging upside remains intact on the longer timeframes.
🔍 Macro Backdrop: Pressure Building
CPI Data (May) came in at 2.4%, slightly higher than April’s 2.3%, but still below forecast — showing inflation is sticky but not accelerating.
Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran flared again over the weekend, adding risk-off pressure to already fragile sentiment.
Market volatility remains high, with trillions of dollars swinging across a narrow window — validating shorter Fib cycles and accelerated price exhaustion.
🧭 Daily Chart Analysis: December 2024 High → April 2025 Low
I used a bearish Fib retracement from the December 2024 highs to the April 2025 lows.
SPY has now retraced nearly 100% of that drop, currently hovering between the 0.786 and 0.886 retracement levels — which often act as exhaustion zones in corrective rallies.
The Fib spiral from the April low shows we’ve lost the initial vertical trendline that marked the recovery leg — a shift in momentum tone.
MACD has remained flat for 16 sessions, with a bearish divergence confirmed on Friday (6/13/25).
Momentum, which briefly turned positive on Thursday, flipped sharply back negative by week’s end.
📆 Weekly Chart Structure: March 2020 → Feb 2025
The weekly spiral, drawn from the March 2020 low to the February 2025 high, reflects a similar pattern:
→ Price is moving beyond the arc and approaching the vertical time marker, a zone where reversals or expansions often occur.
Long-term trend remains bullish, but short-term action suggests compression ahead of a possible pullback.
🔥 Spiral Interpretation Reminder:
The Fib spiral doesn’t predict direction — it identifies time-based pressure points.
When price crosses the arc or vertical band, volatility often follows.
🎯 Key Trade Levels:
Breakdown Watch:
→ Close below $595, then $587 could trigger downside toward $560 (0.618) and $545 (0.5) levels from the retracement
Breakout Watch:
→ A confirmed breakout above $609 (full retrace from the Fib) would invalidate the short-term bear thesis and resume bullish continuation
🤔 Positioning Outlook:
I’m tactically bearish here. The technicals show:
Momentum divergence
Fib exhaustion
Spiral confluence
Macro pressure mounting
I don’t think the long-term trend is broken — but we’re entering a time window for volatility, and that often brings opportunity on both sides. Short setups may offer better risk/reward right now if we see confirmation.
Would love to hear your bias here — bear trap brewing or topping process?
$spyyieahh
Retest of mid line parallel.
Let's see how thos one works out, by 28 July we should see that touch of mid line and then boom or bust ?
SPY: Expecting Bullish Movement! Here is Why:
The analysis of the SPY chart clearly shows us that the pair is finally about to go up due to the rising pressure from the buyers.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 18, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 18, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
💼 Business Inventories Flat in April
U.S. business inventories held steady in April, indicating stable consumer and wholesale demand. That suggests production won't need to cut sharply in the near term, supporting GDP outlook
🏭 Industrial Production Slips
Industrial output declined 0.2% in May, signaling ongoing weakness in factory activity amid less favorable global trade conditions .
🌐 Geopolitical Pressures Persist
Heightened tension in the Middle East continues to pressure risk assets. Investors remain focused on safe-haven flows into gold, Treasuries, and defensive equities, with analysts noting the risk backdrop remains tilted to the downside
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, June 18:
8:30 AM ET – Housing Starts & Building Permits (May)
Measures new residential construction — leading indication of housing sector health.
8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims
Tracks the weekly count of new unemployment filings — useful for spotting early labor-market weakening.
2:00 PM ET – FOMC Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold steady. Market focus will be on any commentary that hints at future tightening or easing plans.
2:30 PM ET – Fed Chair Powell Press Conference
Investors will parse Powell’s remarks for guidance on rate paths, inflation trends, and economic risks.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is for educational/informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #housing #Fed #geo_risk #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY: Watching for EntryWatching for entry on SPY. Guessing the fib sequences and what not. That should be enough for the note.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 17, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 17, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
📈 U.S. Retail Spending Holds Firm
May’s retail sales were flat month-over-month, defying expectations of a slowdown. Core retail sales (ex-autos) edged up +0.2%, signaling resilience in consumer purchases—an encouraging sign for economic momentum
🤖 Tesla’s Robotaxi Buzz Accelerates
Tesla stock surged after a weekend robotaxi video surfaced ahead of its planned Austin launch. A viral clip showed a Model Y “robotaxi” navigating traffic autonomously, sparking fresh investor enthusiasm despite safety debates
📊 BoJ Holds Rates; Dollar Edges Higher
Japan’s central bank left policy unchanged at 0.5%, maintaining its dovish bias. This lifted the dollar slightly versus the yen, drawing focus to global interest-rate divergence
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Tuesday, June 17:
8:30 AM ET – Retail Sales (May)
Consumer purchases are tracked, excluding autos. Monitor if activity stays steady despite inflation and rate pressures.
9:15 AM ET – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (May)
Provides insight into factory activity and plant usage—a gauge of economic health amid global slowdown concerns.
10:00 AM ET – Business Inventories (April)
Shows stock levels held by wholesalers and manufacturers. Higher inventories with weaker sales may signal slowing demand.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 16–20, 2025 🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 16–20, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏦 Fed Holds Rates, Powell Expresses Caution
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50%, though Chair Powell likely won’t provide fresh guidance. Markets see limited upside without stronger inflation or growth cues
💱 Dollar Strengthens on Geopolitical Risk
The U.S. dollar rose slightly as investors flocked to safe assets amid global tensions with Iran. Treasury yields eased slightly on risk-off flows
🛢️ Oil Near Multi-Week Highs on Mideast & OPEC Dynamics
Oil held near seven-week highs (~$67–70/barrel), buoyed by Iran-Israel tensions and OPEC+ output hikes (411K bpd added from May–July), offset by demand concerns .
⚠️ G7 Summit Faces Heightened Stakes
G7 finance ministers meet in Canada under pressure from Middle East escalation. Watch for policy coordination and commentary on trade, inflation, and global economic risks .
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Monday, June 16
Regular markets open after Juneteenth holiday
Quiet day; oil & geopolitical headlines dominate
📅 Tuesday, June 17
8:30 AM ET – Retail Sales (May): Signals consumer spending strength/duration
8:30 AM ET – CPI (May): Confirms inflation trend post-CPI cooler reading
10:00 AM ET – Housing Starts & Building Permits (May): Gauges housing market demand
Unexpected Tesla Robotaxi Demo (Austin): Watch for surprise developments this week
📅 Wednesday, June 18
Global Central Bank Day: FOMC, BoE, BoJ policy updates; U.S. Fed will most likely hold steady
📅 Thursday, June 19 – Juneteenth Holiday – U.S. markets closed
📅 Friday, June 20
8:30 AM ET – Existing Home Sales (May): Measures U.S. housing activity
10:00 AM ET – Leading Economic Indicators (May): Early snapshot of economic momentum
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
$SPY Watchlist Plan: Week of 6/17Watchlist Plan: Week of 6/17
Stock Near All-Time High
Approaching ATH at 613.23 — key pivot zone
Break and hold above: Look for calls targeting momentum continuation (e.g., 620, 630 psychological levels)
Rejection off ATH: Look for puts targeting a retracement toward 599, then 568
Retracement and Support Zones
599: Micro support on smaller timeframes (15m/1h). Watch for intraday bounce or breakdown.
568: Key downside target if rejection at ATH confirms and 599 fails. Consider swing puts toward this level.
Also monitor the 585–590 range for potential consolidation or minor support.
Game Plan Triggers
Bullish confirmation:
Clean break and hold above 613.23 with strong volume
Market-wide risk-on tone (SPY, QQQ green)
Bearish setup:
Strong rejection at or below ATH
Market-wide pullback or macro weakness (especially in tech or consumer sectors)
Catalysts
June 17 (Monday): Retail Sales Report — gauge of consumer strength
June 18 (Tuesday): Unemployment Claims — snapshot of labor market health
Strong data may fuel market optimism
Weak data could tilt market bearish
Additional Notes
Watch for volume divergence near ATH — breakout with low volume can trap longs
Use pre-market action to frame bias: gap up with follow-through = strength; gap up followed by fade = weakness
Keep an eye on VIX and bond yields for macro pressure indicators
SPY (S&P500) - Price Testing Support Trendline - Daily ChartSPY (S&P500 ETF) price has just closed below $600 and is currently under a support trendline.
If price cannot breakout above the $600 and $605 resistance level this month, a pullback could occur down to the support zone.
SPY price could potentially pullback to various levels of support due to:
-USA domestic conflict
-International military conflicts
-Technical chart bearish divergence
-USA federal reserve interest rate news
-Government and corporate news
Support Levels: $595, $590, $585, $580.
Resistance Levels: $600, $605, $610, $615.
The 50EMA/200EMA Golden Cross is still on-going, and support prices of $580 and $568 have yet to be tested significantly.
SPY 12:16 600.29 reversalMathematically it makes sense; I did some calculations and it seems like this is included in the most likely path for the market. Lost 7k on my LEAP account today so don't bank on it
The Turn?spx should continue down, I also cover other markets. OIl long term looks very bullish. I'm sick so short video.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-13 : Harami-Inside PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets may stall into a sideways price range.
After the news of Israel targeting Iran in a preemptive strike late yesterday afternoon, the markets moved dramatically lower while Gold & Silver moved higher on the news.
I, personally, see this market trend as a shift in thinking ahead of a long Father's Day weekend.
I see traders trying to position their accounts/trades for uncertainty.
I believe we could see a bit of a shift today - particularly in Metals and the QQQ/NASDAQ/BTCUSD.
Overall, I strongly suggest traders prepare for extreme volatility this weekend as any further news of a counter-strike or further military action in the Middle East could roil the markets.
Happy Friday the 13th - everyone.
Going to be an interesting day to say the least.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SP500: Recursive Historic PatternAs a part of my research on fractal phenomena, I'm collecting recursive patterns directly to better understand the emerging structural landscape.
Documenting systemic behavior
Sharp drop
Distinctive growth cycle
Putting this out as current price is near all time high.
Update into the closeAnd I cover other charts as well. I expect lower on SPX next weel. Higher on Gold and OIL. Likely higher on Nat Gas, lower on BTC
