SPY Short Entry.Entering a short position around 600. The target will be 587 by the end of the day. The setup will be for maximum loss.
S27 trade ideas
Uptrend for the next 10 days The market will go up for the next 10 days.
I am using the Heikin Ashi candlesticks as they:
1) show more of a directional movement within candlesticks,
2) they tend to filter out the market noise so you can see the market direction better,
3) it reduces false signals, allowing you to stay in the trade longer, and
4) gives you a smoother appearance making it easier to see trends and reversals.
Typically, I would wait until there are 2 green Heikin Ashi green candlesticks before entering.
I still tend to switch back and forth between Heikin Ashi candlesticks and regular candlesticks since regular candlesticks are what I am familiar with and have been using since I started trading.
I use the MacD, the Stock RSI and the DMI to assist me with the direction of the market.
I am anticipating a bull trend for the next while as the 30 min, 1 hour, 2 hour, 3 hour and 4 hour indicators are already looking bullish. The rest of the time frame indicators should change shortly.
I have a few targets. In the past I have said the market is usually moving about 34 points, but I think it will make a less of a move this time due to the Stock RSI only being slightly lower as it is not starting close to 0.
If you look at some of the past moves, the market moved around 20 points such as from July 1 to July 16, Oct 7 to Oct 17 and Nov. 20 to Dec 6th. As well, if you look at the Stock RSI on the daily charts, it has only declined a little. So even with it turning soon, it only has a little way to go upward.
Typically, I would wait until there are 2 green Heikin Ashi green candlesticks before entering.
I still tend to switch back and forth between Heinkin Ashi candlesticks and regular candlesticks since regular candlesticks is what I was using since I started trading and there are still some benefits I get from regular candlesticks.
The targets I have in place are:
22 point move = 616
1.618 Fibonacci move = 619.35
10 day move = Feb 12
If it hits one of these targets, I am out of my trade.
My stops are:
1) the low of the previous candlestick,
2) 2 red Heikin Ashi candlesticks,
3) a specific dollar amount of a total loss for my trade or
4) a specific dollar amount of the contract.
Happy trading everyone!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-3-25 : Breakaway PatternOn a day like today, where the markets broke down with a huge GAP downward, what can I say except...
Just like I predicted.
For months I've been warning of the Jan 21-23 Inauguration peak/top that will lead to a Deep-V breakdown on Feb 9-12. And, like clockwork, the markets peaked just after January 23 and rolled downward into the breakdown phase - headed towards my Deep-V base/bottom setup near Feb 9-12.
At this point, I'm just going to sit back and collect my profits. You should be doing the same thing today - BOOK those profits.
Gold and Silver are moving into an upward CRUSH pattern. It could be very explosive.
Bitcoin has broken downward again - just like I predicted.
Over the next 30+ days, the markets will enter a very volatile and rotating price phase. Be prepared for wild price rotations.
This is a true trader's market. Go get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Bearish Sentiment Prevails: Consider Shorting SPY Next Week
- Key Insights: The current bearish trend in SPY suggests a cautious approach
for traders. With the SPY closing below critical support levels and
exhibiting patterns of weakness, market participants may want to consider
short positions, particularly if SPY continues to struggle at resistance
levels. Close monitoring of the support zones will be vital in assessing
subsequent moves.
- Price Targets:
- Next week targets:
T1: 594
T2: 590
- Stop levels:
S1: 598
S2: 601
- Recent Performance: SPY has shown a significant decline, recently closing at
601.82 after a notable drop. This continued downward movement signifies a
lack of buyer interest as bearish patterns persist. Market volatility has
spooked investors as SPY faced increased selling pressure, resulting in
lower closes both daily and weekly.
- Expert Analysis: Market sentiment is predominantly cautious due to the
prevailing bearish patterns. While some positive technical indicators have
emerged, expert opinions converge on the view that unless SPY can reclaim
vital price points above 603, further declines seem likely. Analysts advise
maintaining a disciplined approach to trading given the current landscape of
uncertainty.
- News Impact: Recent unscheduled news from China has exacerbated market
volatility, prompting considerable sell-offs in major indices including SPY.
Rising bond yields further complicate the situation as they add to market
pressures. Earnings reports from major companies such as Apple will be
closely watched as they could significantly influence SPY's direction in the
upcoming sessions.
SPY | The End of a 16-Year Bull Cycle? Major Correction Ahead?🔎 Overview:
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has been in a massive bull run since the 2009 bottom, forming a clear 5-wave structure based on Elliott Wave Theory. Now, the market is showing multiple top signals, suggesting that a major correction may be imminent.
📉 Key Warning Signs:
1️⃣ 5-Wave Completion:
The 5th wave is approaching a key Fibonacci extension level (0.618 of Waves 1-3), a common reversal zone for extended moves.
The previous wave count has been respected perfectly, reinforcing this structure.
2️⃣ Fibonacci Circles Alignment:
Price is reaching the outermost Fibonacci arc, a historically significant zone where reversals have occurred.
The market has reacted strongly in previous arcs, indicating this could be another turning point.
3️⃣ RSI Bearish Divergence:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is making lower highs while price is making higher highs—a classic bearish divergence signal.
Previous similar divergences led to major corrections, including 2000, 2008, and 2021 dips.
4️⃣ Overextended Market Conditions:
Volume is declining despite new highs, signaling weak buying pressure.
Sentiment is euphoric, typically a late-stage bull market characteristic.
📊 Possible Scenarios:
🟢 Bullish Case: If SPY breaks and sustains above the 0.786 Fibonacci level (~672), we could see an extension.
🔴 Bearish Case: A break below 600 and a weekly close under 575 would confirm the start of a major correction back to the 350-400 zone (previous wave 4 region).
🚨 Final Thoughts:
The technical evidence suggests that SPY is in a late-stage bull cycle, and the risk of a major pullback is high. While timing exact tops is difficult, long-term investors should be cautious, and traders may want to start looking at hedging strategies or taking partial profits.
📢 What’s your take? Are we near a major top, or is there more upside left? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 👇
#SPY #SP500 #StockMarket #ElliottWave #Fibonacci #RSI #BearishDivergence #Trading #Investing 🚀📉
Is SPY setting up for a correction?The weekly RSI for AMEX:SPY has been flashing some warning signs for the past 6 months. We need to discuss why this could be detrimental for the bulls
SPY Faces Key Support Test! A Reversal or Breakdown Ahead? Jan3Technical Analysis:
1. Trend Overview:
* SPY is consolidating within an ascending wedge pattern but is now testing critical support levels near $598.
* MACD shows bearish momentum as the histogram dives deeper into negative territory.
* Stochastic RSI has entered oversold territory, hinting at a potential bounce but no confirmation yet.
2. Support and Resistance:
* Immediate Support: $598.
* Key Resistance: $610, aligned with the highest positive NETGEX wall.
3. Volume:
* The recent decline is supported by increasing volume, signaling strong selling pressure.
GEX and Options Perspective:
1. Gamma Levels:
* Resistance: $610 (highest positive NETGEX), followed by $615.
* Support: $598 and $595 as critical PUT walls with -59.64% and -67.37% negative gamma concentrations, respectively.
* Extreme Bearish Zone: Below $590, where PUT dominance may accelerate downside moves.
2. Implied Volatility and Sentiment:
* IVR: 19.4 indicates moderate volatility.
* IVx average: 15.7, showing slightly elevated implied volatility compared to historical norms.
* PUT$ dominance at 70.3% highlights bearish sentiment in the options market.
Trade Scenarios:
1. Bullish Setup:
* Entry: Above $601 with confirmation of strong buying volume.
* Target: $610, with a stretch target at $615.
* Stop-Loss: Below $598.
2. Bearish Setup:
* Entry: Below $598, confirming a breakdown from support.
* Target: $590, with an extended target at $585.
* Stop-Loss: Above $601.
Actionable Suggestion:
* Watch for a reversal signal at $598, potentially confirmed by bullish divergence on MACD and Stochastic RSI.
* In case of a breakdown, consider aligning trades with PUT-heavy zones below $595 for downside continuation.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your due diligence and manage your risk effectively.
2/03/2025 Weekly Analysis + WatchlistSPY - Failed 2U week after going outside month the week before. Not super shocking, but now we sit in an interesting spot. The new month will open inside bar and has to either take out previous month highs (Which is ATH) or Jan Lows. Seeing that the range is pretty wide for downside, It will take less effort to make new ATH. Not that it means a whole lot, but that is something to note. Next, we see the week closed failed 2D, but is pretty much slapped right in the middle of last weeks range, so it will take an equal amount of effort to make a HH or LL. Finally, from a daily perspective we have a large failed 2U with slight PMG to the downside. We are definitely primed for a sharp corrective move Monday, but of course anything can happen, we are just much closer to seeing the bear scenario than bull. In my mind, the ideal weekly scenario is this: Monday sees sharp corrective move, taking out the PMG guys, then the rest of the week climbs, triggering the weekly 2-2 Rev, which then ideally sends us into ATH once more before seeing either BF expansion on the Month (since we would go 3-2U.), or seeing us start to come back through last months range for a larger corrective move. In the pure bear scenario, we trigger the daily reversal, head down to weekly 2-2 cont. trigger, then see if we can make progress down back through a few daily gaps, ultimately targeting prev month low for the 3-2D M. Given that we are going into a new monthly open after going 3, we could very easily just chop and go nowhere for the week seeing as we may just remain inside week with the month being inside to start out before possibly seeing control more clearly dictated in the 2nd/3rd week of Feb. Main advice regardless is to trade things that are moving early on like gappers, and anything where the month goes 2U or 2D in the first week. Avoid inside bars if possible and trade light!
Main setups for the week:
Bull:
GE - Inside D and W
ORCL - Hammer W to head back through D gap. Cautious with this one
MRVL - Weekly 2-2U. Daily gap fill to the upside after giant gap down to exhaustion risk
Bear:
BA - Shooter 3-2D weekly. Bear Revstrat daily. Daily BF looks solid.
MSFT - MoMo Shooter M, 3-2D W, Daily 2-1-2D. Check daily BF. Still has magnitude after massive ER drop
VZ - Weekly 2-2D, Daily shooter 2-1-2D, FTFC Red. Check daily BF
Neutral:
RKLB - Inside week. Nuclear Green FTFC and super crazy ATR lately
SPY POTENTIAL SHORT|
✅SPY price went up sharply
But a strong resistance level was hit at 610.73$
Thus, as a pullback is already happening
And a move down towards the target shall follow at 596.00$
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Spy is going downIt looks like it from trend analysis. Latest news and trend is pointing for correction move
Rally Over? The Perfect Storm for a Major Pullback—Not Forever
Two years of relentless upside just met its first real threat: 25% tariffs on Mexico & Canada, 10% on China, and global backlash that isn’t fading anytime soon. Friday’s pause wasn’t hesitation—it was the market bracing for impact.
I hope I'm wrong but this does seem like the perfect setup for a multi-week (or longer) correction. Most stocks won’t be spared, just some will bleed slower.
While short-term turbulence looks inevitable, the long-term picture remains strong. The U.S. is tackling its debt aggressively, and once the dust settles, we’ll likely see the economy emerge stronger—setting the stage for another leg higher.
#S&P500 #MarketShift #BearishShortTerm #BullishLongTerm
$SPY February 3, 2025AMEX:SPY February 3, 2025
Weekly
We will consider 2 lows.
218 made in 2020 and 348 made in 2022.
Now for the move 218 to 473 to 362.
100% move for the extension i218 to 473 is 612 levels.
That is nearly achieved around 610 levels.
Now for the extension drawn from 348 to 459 to 409 1.618 extension is around 591.
This is also done.
However, in monthly time frame for the extension 218 to 479 to 348 100% extension is at 620 levels. Which is the next target.
At the moment daily is strong.
We have 9,21 and 50 converging.
100 averages are at 586 levels.
So, if any fall I expect good support around those levels.
60 Minutes.
As written earlier AMEX:SPY in a box.
Gaps, long bars need to be sorted out.
200 hourly is at 596 levels being bottom of box.
So, I will dell only below that.
For the rise 575 to 610.78 50% retracement 593 levels.
AMEX:SPY already attempted once that level and bounced back to 609 levels.
So, for the rise 594.64 to 609.96 holding 599-600 is important for uptrend to continue.
SPY: First week of FebruaryI have no opinion on SPY for next week.
The price targets and current trajectory are shared in the video.
As of now, SPY continues to follow the Bullish annual trajectory. All signs remain bullish for the most part.
The only concern is the current economic antics underway between Canada, USA and Mexico.
This situation has happened before and the market responded starkly.
Its best to remain optimistically cautious in my opinion.
That's it for now!
Safe trades everyone!
SPY Move Down Ahead! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
SPY is trading in an uptrend
So we are bullish biased
Long-term, however the index
Has hit a horizontal resistance
Level of 610.93$ and we are
Already seeing a local bearish
Pullback from the level
So we will be expecting
A further local move down
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Lookin' For a LowHey traders,
After a large sell-off Friday, the question is, how are we looking going into next week?
We're using all technicals for this one with a sprinkle of economic news. Considering tariffs and deportations, "disruption" of goods, etc. I would say we are looking for more downside with the economic insecurity.
I expect the VIX or UVXY to start climbing, this may even be the start to the much needed 20% correction the market needs, but I'm not quite that ambitious yet.
Opening bell on Monday could be a DCB (Dead Cat Bounce), with a quick pop and drop type scenario. After all, it is the tail that wags the dog.
Looking for the low, long-term trend line dating back to October of 2023 would put us somewhere in the range of 578-581 and by the way, I think we're going even lower. That price, for now, is the target.
I'll keep it short and simple for this one, it's a pretty straight forward analysis. Overhead resistance, bearish sentiment, and a lingering correction.
Thanks for reading. 🙏
Bearish on SPYAfter gapping down last week, we consolidated for the remainder of the week and successfully filled the gap. February is likely to be a bearish month. There’s a possibility that a double top has formed, and if we fail to break last week’s high while dropping below 600, a sharp decline could follow.
Key support levels to watch if SPY moves lower next week:
595
575
567 (a break below this level makes 540 highly probable).
SpyNow turn it around!
2 targets on Spy this week.. the first is 589 gap support.. Also the weekly 20sma is around 589-590 and if you look at your weekly chart fawkery abounds nears the weekly 20.
If we break below weekly 20 which I would say is a 50/50 then price will double to back to 575 or lower trendline like so
Looking at the charts you'll notice something, Spy hit this ATH in Dec led by Tech , this most recent push though was led by Cyclicals, financials, Healthcare.. so let's look at the above
Cyclicals
TVC:NYA - Represents 3000 stocks ..
Triple bottom completed at ATH .. price is overextended and closed with a dark cloud cover Bearish candle
AMEX:XLF
My sell signal really lit up here . Similar triple bottom as NYA..
Daily money flow lit up overbought
Rising wedge here at ATH..
Bearish engulfing candle
Trump election gap is my long term target but the 20/50 is my immediate target at 49.50
AMEX:XLV
Price stopped at a brick wall here. I'm not surprised though. This sector got really extended and when price approaches the 200sma extended it rarely passes .
Resistance areas
148 price action
Daily 200sma
Weekly 50sma
Immediate target pullback is 144 gap close.
So the 3 sectors pushing spy the last 2weeks are showing a pullback coming this week.
As far as tech goes , you can check out my QQQ post..
10yr chart and VIX look prime for a explosive move next week. Both are showing a bullish falling wedge
TVC:TNX 10yr chart
TVC:VIX
If by surprised price gaps up .
Entries
1hour chart 20/50sma + 5min 200sma + trendline = good short Entry 603-605.. stop loss over 607
If price gaps down.. short below 599.00 stop loss 602.00
Bearish Engulfing Reaction on First Round of New TariffsTrump plans new tariffs: 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports, 10% on Chinese goods, starting Saturday (Feb 1, 2025). Citing fentanyl and immigration concerns, the move threatens $1.6 trillion in North American trade, shaking markets and weakening regional currencies.
Trump's tariffs during his first term caused significant market volatility. Major tariff announcements, particularly against China, led to sharp declines, such as the Dow's 724-point drop in March 2018. Stocks of companies with China exposure, like Caterpillar and Boeing, were hit hardest. Conversely, signs of trade agreements or de-escalation often led to market rebounds, highlighting investor sensitivity to trade policy uncertainty.
Right now I believe we are in the beginning phase of the tariff dispute where retaliation ("tit for tat") headline risk remains heightened as we wait for the official response from Mexico, Canada, and China. This I believe will put continued pressure on AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:IWM until there is a de-escalation off-ramp.
SPY bear target to 590.
Plan Your Trade : Behind The Scenes - Learning PerspectiveI created this video to help answer a question from a follower.
One of the biggest concerns for traders is how to use my research/info in a way that benefits them.
My Plan Your Trade videos are based on Daily & Weekly price patterns/cycles. I won't delve into the Intraday research much because it is almost impossible to predict 2 to 10-minute price bars/action throughout the day when new hits and external price data may dramatically change how price moves throughout the day. I would have to continue making videos every 30 to 45 minutes to help you understand the dynamics of intraday price action.
Either way, watch this video to learn a bit more about my research and why I'm trying to help traders learn to make better decisions.
I'm really not here to tell you what to trade - or when to trade. I'm here to help you learn to make better trading decisions ON YOUR OWN.
I try to help you learn to become a more knowledgeable and skilled trader by sharing some of my advanced research and demonstrating patterns, setups, price levels, and Cycle Patterns.
The only thing I can do to help you become a better trader is to help you learn better skills and techniques. If you treat trading like gambling, you'll go broke (often). If you understand trading as a process of grabbing profits when efficient and limiting risks, you'll survive and grow your account over time.
It's really that simple.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY Rising WedgeIf SPY fails to break ATH today, you will see a pattern open for drawback. With tariff news and jobs report looming into next week, it will be possible to see sub-600 prices next week.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For Jan 31 : GAP PotentialAs we move into the end of January 2025, I'm still watching for technical failure near these higher levels. On Monday, we saw a huge breakdown in the markets just days after my Jan 21-23 Top prediction. Now, as we are moving into the Feb 9-11 DeepV base/bottom pattern - I've been expecting the markets to move into a downward trending phase - which has not happened yet.
The way I see the markets right now and how I would offer a general interpretation of the trend is "struggling to find/set a new trend".
In other words, the markets are really congested in a wide range. I believe the markets will attempt to move downward after today's opening GAP higher.
I believe the markets are going to continue to struggle to find support and trade in a downward-sloping consolidated price range until Q3/Q4:2025.
I believe the markets are reacting to earnings and continued support right now, but that will ultimately resolve as a breakdown phase over the next 60+ days - leading to the multiple BASE/BOTTOM patterns my cycle research suggests will happen.
So, I continue to explain what I see in the context of the broader cycle phases.
Gold and Silver may rally a bit today - but we have a CRUSH pattern on Monday - so try not to carry any positions over the weekend.
BTCUSD is struggling to move away from very strong consolidation. It is also setting up multiple Excess Phase Peak patterns. I believe we need to be patient as BTCUSD struggles to find a new trend. Right now, I see more downside potential than upside potential.
I would offer one warning about today. Today's opening GAP will likely prompt a breakdown in price (moving downward) as we head into next week.
I believe next week will be very volatile. Buckle up.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY Cycles & TA: 1/30/25Today I focus on the general stock market using the SPY to get an idea of where we are and were we are going. Things are looking bearish AF and a possible surprise crash is now day or weeks away. Many warnings in this video.
SPY Technical Analysis: for Jan. 31Market Structure Analysis:
SPY is trading within a symmetrical wedge, suggesting consolidation with a potential breakout approaching. Recent price action indicates higher lows, creating an upward bias, but resistance around $610 needs to be cleared for confirmation of further upside.
Support and Resistance Levels:
* Immediate Support: $600
* Key Support: $590 (aligned with the PUT Support Zone)
* Immediate Resistance: $610
* Major Resistance: $620 (Gamma Wall with strong Call resistance)
Indicators Analysis:
* MACD: Momentum is slightly bullish but flattening, signaling caution for overextension.
* Stochastic RSI: Currently overbought, which could lead to a short-term pullback or pause in the rally.
Gamma Exposure (GEX) and Options Insights:
* Positive Gamma is dominant, with the highest Call Resistance at $620.
* Put support is strong around $590, creating a likely floor unless broader market sentiment shifts.
Trade Setup Suggestions:
1. Bullish Breakout:
* Entry: Above $610
* Target: $620
* Stop Loss: Below $600
2. Bearish Rejection:
* Entry: Below $600
* Target: $590
* Stop Loss: Above $610
Outlook:
Today, SPY is likely to test the upper boundary of the wedge. A breakout above $610 could lead to strong bullish momentum targeting $620. However, if rejected, SPY may retrace towards $600 or even $590, especially if market sentiment weakens.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
