S27 trade ideas
Spy Prediction Potential breakout of bull flag if it bounces back after retest of 200 SMA. Could see an attempt for new ath.
Spy needs to reach 602.23 and hold that floor before the breakout. Watch for volume spike and close above 603. Watch for confirmation on the breakout.
Potential entries based on risk - 603.61 & 602.95
If volume or momentum declines, we could see a potential breakdown back towards 598.
Watch out for fakeouts.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 13, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 13, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🚨 Israel Strikes Iran — U.S. Markets Sell Off
Israel launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, triggering a sharp risk-off move in global markets. U.S. stock futures slid over 1%, driven by a drop in equities and a surge in safe-haven assets
🛢️ Oil Prices Surge 7–8% on Supply Fears
Brent crude jumped over 7%, reaching ~$74.65/barrel, while WTI rose nearly 8%—the strongest move since early May. The sudden energy-price spike reflects heightened fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East
💱 Dollar & Safe Havens Climb
True to form, the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, gold, and Treasuries rallied as investors moved to the safety of low-risk assets amid escalating geopolitical uncertainty
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, June 13
(No scheduled U.S. economic data)
Data flow will take a backseat as markets digest geopolitical developments and await the weekend.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #geopolitics #oil #safety #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY - 1 Hour ShortSPY – 1H Technical Breakdown (Short Bias)
Price action on SPY has recently traded into a clearly defined higher-timeframe supply zone, where prior bearish order flow originated. The current structure shows signs of exhaustion after a liquidity sweep above recent swing highs, which likely triggered breakout entries and stop-loss clusters — a common precursor to reversal.
We’ve observed a loss of momentum as price consolidates beneath this supply zone, signaling inefficient buying and a potential shift in control from buyers to sellers. The rejection from this zone aligns precisely with the projected schematic path, reinforcing the short bias and supporting the hypothesis of a distribution phase.
The anticipated move targets the mid-550s, a region marked by prior accumulation and unmitigated demand, making it a logical zone for price to seek out resting liquidity.
🔹 Key Technical Confluences:
Entry from a confirmed supply zone
Sweep of prior high followed by internal weakness
Structure showing early lower highs and compression beneath resistance
Market currently following the projected schematic path outlined in advance
🛡️ Risk Parameters:
Stop-loss is placed conservatively above the supply zone highs to account for further probing
Take-profit aligned with prior demand and structural inefficiencies
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R): Estimated 3:1+, offering a highly asymmetric return profile
This is a tactically planned short with strong technical backing. As long as price respects current structure, we maintain bearish conviction until the 555–560 zone is tested or invalidation occurs above the supply.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-12: BaseRally In Trend ModeToday's pattern suggests the markets may attempt to identify a base and move higher (rally) off that base level.
Given the overnight price activity, I suggest the process of identifying the base level could prompt a deeper early decline in price - possibly attempting to retest 595-597 lows before finding support and attempting to rally.
As I've been warning over the past few weeks/months, I'm still seeing the Excess Phase Peak pattern playing out as a Flag Termination - rolling into a downtrend and attempting to move back towards the $480 lows as a real possibility. I've been warning and watching for the breakdown in trend - but we've not seen it yet.
Thus, we are still BULLISH until we get a confirmation of a solid breakdown. That would be a move below the 580-585 level at this point. We need to see some type of solid breakdown in price, breaking away from the FLAG setup and moving downward, before I could confidently suggest the Flag Breakdown has happened.
Gold and Silver are making a big move higher. Gold is finally starting to move back above $3400 and I believe watching Silver, Gold, & Platinum rally suggests FEAR is elevating as we move into the end of June.
I still believe Gold has a chance to rally above $4k before the end of June. We'll see if it happens.
BTCUSD is moving into a DUAL-EPP pattern. This is very interesting. Watch the video as I highlight why this could prompt a dual-stage EPP breakdown in Bitcoin over the next 20 to 50+ days.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY 15-Min — Weak-High Sweep in Play• Discount BOS at 603.95 → impulsive leg to 606.7 (0.886)
• Weak high tagged at 607.16 – expecting continuation to 1.382 ≈ 608.61 then 1.854 ≈ 610.92
• Invalidation if price closes below 605.45 session VWAP band
• Targets: 608.61 → 610.92
• Risk: stop 604.9 (below 0.5 Fib)
VolanX bias remains risk-on while micro structure stair-steps above the 9-EMA channel.
Educational only – not financial advice
#SPY #SMP500 #OrderFlow #Fib #VolanX #WaverVanir
Monday UpdateSPX and SPY both look like they are trying to decide if the 18ma will hold as support or not, we have to wait for the close. Gold looks like it wants to go higher. Oil and Natural Gas as well. I forgot BTC, I'll do it tomorrow.
SPY- Premarket readPre-Market Read – June 23
AMEX:SPY
Premarket High: 595.15
Premarket Low: 592.15
Bias: Leaning Bearish
Price got rejected again at that 600–602 zone — that’s been a wall.
All the EMAs (9/50/200) are stacked tight, which usually means something’s brewing.
Institutions bought heavy down around 572–579 — they’re already green, so they might start selling into strength.
I’m expecting chop between 593–595 off the open.
I’ll probably wait out the first 15 min and let the ORB build.
If we break out, I’m watching both sides, but I lean put.
579 spy incoming?I posted this a week or so ago. I think we are finally going to have the momentum, or lack thereof, to make it down to fill the rest of that gap. I have noticed that large gaps that leave a small gap below(you must adjust the indicator to show it) almost always get filled before continuing up. This 579 level also matches up perfectly with the 20ema on the weekly which should provide further support. I will be looking for this level all week while being aware of any short squeezes that could occur on the way down. Will definitely go long at this 579 level as I think we will have a very green July.
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 23–27, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 23–27, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🌐 Geopolitics Add to Risk Aversion
The S&P 500 is up about 0.9% so far in June, but analysts warn it’s facing a “precarious” phase amid renewed Middle East conflict and looming U.S. tariff deadlines in July–August. Elevated oil prices could fuel inflation, while fiscal and debt ceiling pressures weigh on sentiment
🎙️ Powell Heads to Capitol Hill
Fed Chair Powell will testify before Congress this week. His remarks on inflation and rate outlook—particularly regarding the Fed’s recent dot-plot revisions and monetary policy uncertainty—will be central to market direction
📈 Nike, FedEx & Micron Earnings Under Focus
Key corporate earnings (Nike, FedEx, Micron) could provide fresh insight into how tariffs and supply-chain disruptions are impacting major U.S. businesses
🛢️ Oil Prices Elevated
Oil remains range-bound at multi-week highs near $75–80/bbl following U.S.–Israel military action in Iran, which briefly spiked prices ~7–11%. Continued dependence on Middle Eastern supply may keep energy complex volatile
⚖️ NATO Summit Tightens Security Focus
NATO leaders meet in The Hague, marking an elevated global defense posture amid geopolitical uncertainty. Defense and aerospace stocks may remain pressured or volatile depending on summit outcomes
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Monday, June 23
9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Flash U.S. Services & Manufacturing PMI (June)
10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales (May)
📅 Tuesday, June 24
10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence Index (June)
Testimony: Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears before Congress
📅 Wednesday, June 25
10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales (May)
📅 Thursday, June 26
8:30 AM ET: Advance Q1 GDP (Final Estimate)
📅 Friday, June 27
8:30 AM ET: Core PCE Price Index (May) — Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before investing.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #Fed #oil #charting #technicalanalysis
$SPY Call Credit Spread for 7/3 Expy IdeaAMEX:SPY Call Credit Spread
+1 $604 call 7/3
-1 $600 call 7/3
~$200 credit
1:1 risk:reward
Breakeven @ Expy = $602
We'll see...
SPY repeating patternsSo just look at patterns that coincide with the RSI. Just keep an eye on the levels & channels & paly it smart
SPY Breaks Rising Wedge! Gamma Wall Rejected. Jun 17SPY Breaks Rising Wedge! Gamma Wall Rejected — Bearish Momentum Building Into OPEX 🔻
🔬 GEX (Gamma Exposure) Sentiment Breakdown:
* Gamma Resistance Above:
* Gamma Wall / Call Resistance: $602
* $603–$604.50 = additional CALL walls (2nd & 3rd tier resistance)
* $606.37 = Local high; unlikely to reclaim without macro tailwind
* PUT Walls / Downside Zones:
* $597 = HVL + Key Flip Level
* $595 = 1st Major PUT Support (Highest negative NET GEX)
* $593 / $590 = deeper GEX-supported flush zones
* Options Flow Metrics:
* IVR: 19.4 (slightly below avg)
* IVx avg: 19
* PUT Flow: 91.5% 🟥
* GEX Sentiment: 🔴🔴🔴 (Bearish dealer positioning + skewed delta exposure)
* Interpretation:
* Heavy call rejection at $602 combined with high PUT flow suggests dealers are short gamma.
* If SPY closes below $597, gamma exposure flips net negative — potential acceleration into $595/$593.
🧠 15-Minute SMC Breakdown:
* Current Price: $598.00
* Structure Overview:
* Clean rising wedge break
* Two CHoCHs confirmed at top → shift from bullish to bearish control
* Price broke into demand box (~$597–$598), testing support
* Volume spiked on breakdown = institutional participation confirmed
* Trend View:
* Uptrend is broken.
* Now entering potential distribution-to-downtrend transition phase
🧭 Trade Scenarios:
🟥 Bearish Breakdown Setup (High Probability):
* Trigger: Clean breakdown below $597
* Target 1: $595 (GEX Put wall)
* Target 2: $593 / $590
* Stop-loss: Above $600.50
Gamma flip + SMC structure shift supports downside. Dealer flows likely exacerbate drop under $597.
🟩 Bullish Reclaim Setup (Low Probability):
* Trigger: Reclaim of $602 with volume
* Target 1: $604.50
* Target 2: $606.50 (high)
* Stop-loss: Below $597.50
Only possible with major market strength, such as dovish Fed cues or macro catalysts.
📌 My Thoughts:
* SPY is showing signs of weakness across the board — structure, options flow, and volume confirm sellers stepping in.
* Put flows are extreme (>90%), so bounces may be brief and used to reload shorts.
* This is not a dip to buy blindly — best play is momentum PUTs under $597, tight risk control.
* Ideal setup for zero-day or 1DTE options trades with defined exits.
📉 Conclusion:
SPY failed to hold $602 Gamma Wall, rejected hard, and now tests $597 support. With options sentiment flipping negative and SMC structure breaking down, a drop to $595 or lower is increasingly likely.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always manage risk and trade based on your plan.
S&P 500 OutlookS&P closed below the 9-EMA, showing there is weakness going into next week. Starting to build my watchlist when we get the bounce. If it closes back above the 9-EMA, then I'll start to look for entries.
Bearish Trend Starting SP500 SP:SPX AMEX:SPY Cannot Across 605 with MACD crossdown & RSI top lower
Last Support 593 If Breakthrough That Signal Confirm Complete Down Trend
Jeremy Chew SPY Notes 6/12/2025🧠 SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) — Technical Summary
Chart Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Latest Close: ~$603.75
After-Hours Price: ~$595 (notable drop of ~1.45%)
🟩 Recent Price Action:
Strong rally off March/April lows (~458) has pushed SPY through major Fibonacci levels.
Sharp uptrend support (green line) has held since bottom, but is now being tested.
Today’s after-hours drop to $595 places price back below the 78.6% Fib retracement level (~587) — a potential warning sign of a reversal or short-term weakness.
🔍 Fibonacci Levels (from ~644 to ~458 swing):
Level Price Status
23.6% ~518.2 Support (cleared)
38.2% ~536.4 Support
50.0% ~551.4 Support
61.8% ~566.1 Support
78.6% ~587.2 Currently being tested
100% ~644 Major resistance
🔺 Support Levels (Key Areas to Watch):
~587.2: 78.6% Fib + Bollinger Band middle (critical support now at risk).
~566–568: Fib 61.8% + horizontal consolidation support.
~551: Fib 50%, secondary support if breakdown continues.
Green uptrend line: Dynamic support — near convergence zone with ~587.
🔻 Resistance Levels:
~603–606: Immediate resistance (price rejected here intraday).
~615–620: Horizontal price shelf from Feb highs.
~644: Major swing high from earlier in 2025.
📈 Bollinger Bands (20, 2):
Price was hugging the upper band earlier today — sign of bullish momentum.
After-hours dip to $595 pushes price toward the 20-day SMA (~593) — possible mean reversion or early correction forming.
📉 Volume & Momentum:
Volume during the rally has been moderate to low, suggesting limited conviction.
No major volume spike despite the recent breakout attempt.
If selling volume increases tomorrow, it may confirm a short-term bearish reversal.
⚠️ Interpretation:
The after-hours dip to $595 is a yellow flag. It:
Falls below the breakout level of ~603.
Threatens the 78.6% Fib (which is a typical exhaustion zone in retracements).
May break below the sharp uptrend support line, triggering profit-taking.
Short-term bias: Shifting from bullish to neutral/bearish unless it reclaims 603 quickly on volume.
🧭 Next Key Watchpoints:
Bulls want to see:
A bounce from ~593–587 zone.
A reclaim of 603 with strong volume.
Bears want to see:
Breakdown below 587 with follow-through.
Confirmation below trendline and push toward 566.
SP500 in CHF terms, bearish outlook- checking the SP500 in USD seems misleading these days
- therefore I checked it with CHF and earlier movements made more sense
- RSI bearish divergences were followed in earlier periods
- now we have a potential head and shoulders formation
- seems more likely to head south
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 12, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 12, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
💱 Dollar Slides on Trade Truce Hopes & Fed Outlook
The U.S. dollar dropped 0.4%—its lowest level since April 22—after President Trump signaled flexibility on a July 8 trade deadline and U.S.–China talks showed renewed progress, boosting expectations for Fed rate cuts
📊 S&P Shiller CAPE Hints at Overvaluation Risk
Stocks and bonds rallied following rebound, but valuation metrics flash caution: the S&P 500 now sits in the 94th percentile of Shiller CAPE, and equity risk premium has dropped to zero. Analysts warn these levels often precede corrections
🛢️ Oil Holds at Seven-Week Highs
Oil prices remain near seven-week highs (~$66–67/barrel), supported by gradual OPEC+ output increases and hopes that easing trade tensions will aid demand
📈 CPI Cools Again, Bonds Climb
U.S. consumer inflation rose just 0.1% in May (2.4% YoY), easing expectations for tighter Fed policy. Consequently, Treasury yields softened and bond markets outperformed equities
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, June 12:
8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (May)
An early gauge of inflation at the wholesale level—may reinforce the cooling trend seen in CPI.
8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
Weekly updates on unemployment filings. Key to monitor for labor-market tightening or softening.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This report is for educational and informational purposes only—it does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY SHORT FROM RESISTANCE|
✅SPY went up to retest
A horizontal resistance of 610$
Which is also an All-Time-High
So its a very strong level
Which makes me locally bearish biased
And I think that we will see a pullback
And a move down from the level
Towards the target below at 596.43$
SHORT🔥
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Afternoon UpdateOn spy and sp500 we have a potential breakdown, but nothing is confirmed as of now. Gold may rally above it's resistance. OIl looks like it will fill it's gap at 71 dollars. BTC is coming down but it's still hard to read it. Natural Gas is at support but I believe it goes lower.
607 EOD Non uclidean Mathematics Dual Band Fibbonaci📍 SPY is now accelerating through the 1.272–1.618 active band.
📍 607 is the next harmonic projection level on the mirrored Non-Euclidean spectrum.
📍 No rejection at Passive ⇒ continuation through Active ⇒ magnet to 607.
