SPY 545 retestSPY 545.00 floor needs to hold if not we go below 540.00 possibly.
If it does hold I think we bounce hard and see ATH.
S27 trade ideas
SPY 10-Minute Chart Analysis - September 3, 2024AMEX:SPY The SPY has been trading in a well-defined range over the past few sessions, bouncing between support and resistance levels like a pinball. Right now, we’re seeing a key moment where SPY is testing the lower boundary of its trading range.
Current Setup:
Resistance Zone: The upper boundary around 5,641 has consistently acted as a ceiling for SPY. Every time the price reaches this level, it gets knocked back down, indicating strong selling pressure.
Support Zone: On the other end, the support around 5,560 has held up well, with buyers stepping in to defend this level each time it’s been tested. SPY is currently hovering just above this support zone, which could be a critical area to watch.
What’s Happening Now:
SPY is testing the lower end of the range, around 5,573.91, after a sharp drop from the resistance. The price is attempting to bounce, but the question is whether this support will hold, or if we’re looking at a potential breakdown.
Key Levels to Watch:
Break Above: If SPY can gather enough momentum to push back towards the 5,641 resistance and break through it, we could see a significant move to the upside. This would signal that buyers have regained control.
Break Below: On the flip side, if SPY fails to hold above the 5,560 support, we might see a more extended decline, potentially opening the door to lower levels.
Summary: SPY is at a crucial juncture. The battle between buyers and sellers is heating up as the price hovers near the lower support of the range. Traders should keep a close eye on these levels, as a break in either direction could dictate the next significant move for SPY. Stay alert and be ready to act depending on how the market reacts in the coming sessions.
SPY Weekly Analysis Sept 2Fibonacci is all that is needed for SPY. Here I have drawn overlapping Fibonacci's from the monthly and weekly perspective. If price were to continue up, breaking the previous all time high, price would continue up to the next Fibonacci level of 579. Typically, when price breaks out to make a new level, it could continue up to test as far at the -50% Fibonacci level of 600.
With the expectation of the FOMC reducing interest rates this month, the move to 600, is possible if you are able to hold your position.
Keep in mind that there is a support gap from 549 to 543, so at some point price may come down to retest this level.
Why ORB and VWAP Have a High Success Rate - Part 2Previously in the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) and the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP). In Part 1, we dove into the basics and all the important aspects of the ORB, but now let's explore why these strategies often lead to high win rates.
The Psychology Behind ORB
The ORB is powerful because it captures the market's initial reaction to overnight news and pre-market sentiment. Think of it like the opening scene of a movie: it sets the tone for what’s to come. When the market breaks above or below this range, it’s like the plot thickening—traders jump in, driving momentum in that direction. This momentum is often self-reinforcing, leading to sustained moves that traders can capitalize on.
VWAP: The Institutional Trader’s Compass
VWAP, on the other hand, is not just another line on the chart. It's the line in the sand for many institutional traders. It represents the average price weighted by volume, and it’s where big players often aim to execute their trades to ensure they’re getting a fair deal. When the price is above VWAP, it’s a sign of strength; below, it signals weakness. This makes VWAP an anchor point for many strategies, creating natural support and resistance levels.
The Power of Combining ORB and VWAP
Now, let’s bring it all together. When you combine ORB and VWAP, you’re essentially stacking two powerful tools that capture both the early market sentiment and the equilibrium price level that institutional traders care about. For instance, if the price breaks out of the opening range and stays above VWAP, it’s like a green light signalling that the bulls are in control. On the other hand, if the price breaks down and stays below VWAP, the bears likely have the upper hand.
The chart you're seeing is a perfect example of this dynamic. Notice how the price respects the VWAP and reacts strongly around the opening range levels. These reactions are not random—they’re the market’s way of telling us where the big players are positioning themselves.
To Recap All These
The high success rate of ORB and VWAP strategies isn’t just about the numbers; it’s about understanding market psychology and where the big money is flowing. By incorporating these tools into your trading, you’re aligning yourself with the natural rhythm of the market, increasing your chances of being on the winning side of the trade.
This combination gives traders a structured approach to navigate the chaos of the markets, and when used consistently, it can lead to more reliable and profitable trades.
Tech Booms Versus Emerging MarketsWhen capitalism nearly died in 2008, major stock market indices experienced >50% drawdowns from all-time highs. After unprecedented interventions by the Federal Reserve — and a historic surge in government debt to GDP — tech, growth, and the S&P 500 have seen stellar returns. (QQQ, VUG, & SPY respectively above).
On the other hand — small caps (VB), value (VTV), real estate (VNQ), developed markets (VEA), and emerging markets (IEMG) — have significantly underperformed. Tech companies have become more valuable than most countries’ GDP. Recently, the total market cap for top tech companies has surpassed $14T.
Will the tech boom continue upwards or is it time for small caps plus value to mean revert to a fair historical share of the total market? Tech also leads dominance for the U.S. versus other developed and emerging markets. More recently, the divergence is especially striking in percent returns and drawdown visualizations since 2020.
SPY ABOVE 564.00 ATH?SPY on 4HR still in range but closing outside of 564.00 we will see ATH. I think we can see 170.
Happy Labor day SPY Lovers ! (4hr Chart Analysis)This is our 4-hour chart, and as you can see, I am linking it with the daily chart I published earlier.
What I want you to notice is the number of orders positioned at 544.58. We must take into account that on our daily chart, this is the second time the price has activated the institutional order block, and there was no intention of a breakout; it was simply rejected as we predicted last week.
The price on the 4-hour chart has only moved within a range and hasn't been able to surpass all-time highs yet. Looking at the chart, it gives me the impression that it might reject again.
No one knows what will happen; this is an analysis based on historical movements, price action, and smart money concepts.
Let’s see what Tuesday brings, but for now, enjoy your Labor Day!
Cheers, and thank you for supporting my analysis.
Hey SPY LOVERS ! Happy Labor Day ! (Daily Chart Analysis) There really isn't much to see here. The entire week we were simply in a broad range. The price activated the institutional order block for the first time and made its natural rejection, as we mentioned in the previous analysis, showing liquidity for several days. However, the price regained strength to return to the institutional order block once again.
There are 2 things I can identify on this chart:
1- The price, volume, and strength to return to the order block.
2- On a 4-hour chart, the price is showing a lot of orders positioned to the downside, which makes me think that the price might not have the strength or volume it's looking for to break the institutional order block and surpass the ALL TIME HIGH.
In conclusion, we have to wait for the market to open tomorrow, as today, being "Labor Day," there was no session
I will publish my 4-hour chart and link it with this one so you can see the number of orders positioned around 544.58.
Let's see how it goes when the market opens on Tuesday.
S&P recovers; bulls maintain long-term controlThe last week of August was sluggish, despite several exciting events. First, NVDA’s earnings, although very strong, failed to boost the market beyond its daily trading range. The GDP and inflation data (positive) released later also didn’t provide sufficient momentum, and the market continued to bracket. The week closed at the high, but buyers didn’t manage to break out of the trading range and confirm control of the daily timeframe. We can conclude that the market has reached a temporary balance—both bulls and bears seem content with the current price and lack the conviction to initiate strong moves.
Zooming out to the monthly view, August closed green, near the historical high. The long lower wick signifies a bullish rally that brought the price up from the low, indicating the strength and conviction of the bulls. Although the bulls didn’t manage to achieve a new high, they still maintain long-term control.
Overall, the market is still in a monthly and weekly uptrend. Even if sellers manage to set a weekly lower high in September, it is unlikely to mark the start of a trend reversal. Buyers have created enough space for potential weekly consolidation that will not threaten their long-term control.
Important levels:
Last major weekly trend high (565). If buyers manage to move above and hold they will confirm continuation of monthly uptrend.
Last major weekly trend low (510). Buyers must protect this level if they want to keep long term control
Short Term Trading range (555-564). Breaking out from the range in either direction will mark gaining of a short-term control.
$SPY August 9, 2024AMEX:SPY August 9, 2024
15 Minutes.
Short was wrong. I was concentrating on Diversion. Missed the fact that my stochastic green bar line was on top. Meaning it was bought on pullback.
So, trade was closed.
I will consider the last rise 557.1 to 564.20. Will enter at retracement 560 levels for long.
But first hurdle is 565.
SPY: Weak Market & Bearish Forecast
It is essential that we apply multitimeframe technical analysis and there is no better example of why that is the case than the current SPY chart which, if analyzed properly, clearly points in the downward direction.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
My idea for spy going into next week AMEX:SPY
I don’t see this holding the highs we could revisit 560 area if we hold this area we could go higher if we lose this 560 area we go lower 555 area.
Ps not financial advise. Trade safe.
SPY shows signs of breakthough to the upsideSPY recent day of trading gave an overall picture that this flat trading is coming to close with a potential rally coming.
Gapped up for second time in the 2 days
Sold off slowly with low volume
The rally in late day spurred by smart money with increasing volume
Stock breaks through upper resistance for first time
SPY is showing a strong bullish signal indicating a longer term rally to come
SPY The Target Is DOWN! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for SPY is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 563.59
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 561.46
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
SPY shows more interest in rallying than beforeSPY is starting to show more signs that a breakout above the flat trading its in is coming
We see increased volume over peaks of previous rallies indicating agreement with pushing up prices
RSI's SMA starts to break through the 50 line
comparing to the QQQ, its experiences another false breakout above for the second day in a row. Showing the tech sector is attempting to turn around to the upside
SPY continues to still trade flat but show more confidence in its small rallies than previously
Opening (IRA): SPY August 30th 486 Covered Call... for a 481.76 debit.
Comments: Re-upping in SPY in slightly longer duration, but with the short call at about the same delta as the one I took off, resulting in a lower buying power effect and break even with the primary goal being to milk a little more out of August before moving onto Sept.
Again, un-sexy metrics as a standalone trade:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 481.76
Max Profit: 4.24
ROC at Max: .880%
50% Max: 2.12
ROC at 50% Max: .440%
SPY Before the Long Weekend. 8/30/24Chart Overview:
Time Frame: 1-hour chart
Indicators: Price levels, trendlines, and RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Key Levels:
Resistance Levels:
563.91: This appears to be a key resistance level that SPY has tested multiple times without breaking above.
563.64: Close to the previous resistance, this area seems to be another strong resistance zone.
Support Levels:
562.19: This level is currently providing support, as shown by the recent price action bouncing off this zone.
557.24 - 558.00: This zone represents a stronger support area, with multiple touches indicating a solid foundation.
553.47 - 553.41: The lowest support zone on the chart, a critical level for the bulls to hold.
Trendlines:
Ascending Trendline: There is an upward trendline starting from the lows, indicating a bullish trend. The price is currently respecting this trendline, which is crucial for the continuation of the uptrend.
Wedge Formation: The price action is forming a wedge, with the upper boundary at the resistance level and the lower boundary along the ascending trendline. Wedge formations usually indicate potential breakout scenarios, either to the upside or downside.
Possible Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
If the price breaks above the resistance at 563.91, we could see a continuation towards the next resistance level, potentially around 570.00 (as indicated by the upper trendline).
The ascending trendline support should hold for this scenario to play out. If the price continues to respect this line, it’s a strong sign of bullish momentum.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price fails to break above the resistance and falls below the ascending trendline, it could lead to a decline towards the support zone at 557.24 - 558.00.
A break below this support zone could lead to further downside, targeting the 553.47 - 553.41 area.
RSI Analysis:
The RSI is hovering around the middle range, not indicating an overbought or oversold condition. This neutral position means that the market could swing either way, depending on how the price interacts with the key levels mentioned above.
Strategy:
For Bulls: Watch for a breakout above 563.91 with increased volume to confirm the move. Consider entering on the breakout and setting a stop loss just below the ascending trendline.
For Bears: If the price breaks below the ascending trendline, look for short opportunities with a target around 557.24 - 558.00. A break below this support could provide more downside.
This setup requires careful monitoring of the key levels and price action to determine the next significant move.
$SPY August 30, 2024AMEX:SPY August 30, 2024
15 Minutes.
Shorted yesterday at 560 levels.
Today for the fall 563.68 to 557.18 561 is 61.8% retracement for the fall.
Since AMEX:SPY below all moving averages i will hold the short.
As written for the rise 518.05 to 563.91 I am expecting a 23.6% retracement. We have an oscillator divergence. So only above 564 I will be closing at loss. 4$ loss for 7 % gain. Good R:R at the moment.
Let's see.
Fed’s Preferred Inflation Indicator TomorrowTomorrow’s macroeconomic calendar is set for a major event! 📊
At 8:30 AM Eastern Time, we’ll see the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator: the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. The implied move for PCE is +/- 35 points, with the estimated month-over-month core PCE at 0.2%. 📈
Stay tuned for market reactions and how it could impact the broader indices!
SP:SPX AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ #Finance #Investing #MarketWatch #EconomicData #Inflation #PCE #Fed #StockMarket #FinancialNews
SPY holds steady while QQQ sells offDuring the past week, SPY and QQQ have diverged in their paths
QQQ slowly and steadily sold off
SPY traded flat during that time
This indicates that the sell off in QQQ was primarily tech driven and did not spread to the rest of the industries
other industries look to be holding stable
SPY retest area creating resistance SPY retest area acting as resistance for now, would not be to surpised if we got a little pull back into next week (540 area) to start to consoldate this 50 point run up
$SPY August 29, 2024AMEX:SPY August 29, 2024
15 Minutes.
AMEX:SPY made a low 555-556 levels once 558 was broke.
Today for the fall 562.05 to 555.04 559-560 is a good level to short as AMEX:SPY made LL without any divergence.
555-556 should give strong support.
The next level to watch is 553.
