SPY: EOW Update And end of week (EOW) overdue update since things are now interesting again!
Just my thoughts, not advice.
As always, safe trades!
S27 trade ideas
SPY next downside targetsSPY rejected the trendline today with a strong flush down. Next downside targets indicated. This analysis is for informational purposes only.
SPY 2-Hour Chart Analysis - August 28, 2024Double Trouble is the name of the game here, and it’s no joke. As you can see SPY just dipped below a critical support level, and things could get tricky if buyers don’t step in soon.
What’s Happening?
SPY has been bouncing around within a tight range for the past few days, but today’s action saw it break below the 554.93 support level (highlighted by the yellow dashed line). This level has been key in holding the price up, and now that it’s breached, we could be in for a rough ride.
Why Double Trouble?
Here I am referring to the fact that SPY is now stuck between two crucial zones: the broken support around 554.93 and the next significant support level down near 551.00. If the price falls to this lower support, we could see even more downward pressure, potentially leading to a deeper sell-off.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: Look for potential resistance to form around the 554.93 level now that it’s broken. If SPY can reclaim this level, it might signal a reversal, but if not, the bears could stay in control.
Support: The next big support is down near 551.00. If SPY continues to fall, this is the level that needs to hold to prevent further losses.
What’s Next?
We’re at a pivotal point. A break back above 554.93 could give bulls a lifeline, but if SPY continues to slide, the 551.00 level will be the last line of support before more significant downside risk comes into play.
Stay cautious and keep an eye on these critical levels as we head into the next trading sessions. I am starting to believe that market is in a delicate position, and how it reacts here will set the tone for the days to come.
SPY TOP IS IN, MOVE BACK DOWN TO $400s incomingSPY is in the area of EXTREME Resistance...... We are at a level of a 2008 swing right now. we are CLEARLY extended. I am shorting now.
Spy Crash Or Correction HereIs Spy Going To Crash Not Yet But In Mid September I See a lot of Profit Taking Driving Our Price All The Way Don TO $520 By End Of October So A Swing Short Wouldn't Be To Bad (I Have A Price Target Of What $520 WOW) But In the Meantime I Think We Might Be Able To See ATH 1 more Time Before This Plays Out!!
Spy Levels Bull about $563 and New ATH it is
Beats anything under $560 And the Ball is in your court as low as $555
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-27 - Inside Breakaway PatternThe SPY continues to slide into a sideways melt-up type of trend. Today's Inside Breakaway pattern suggests the SPY will attempt to move away from this consolidation range.
Although I don't expect a huge breakaway today, I do expect the SPY to attempt to move up into the 563+ area, setting up for a bigger move on Thursday and a pullback on Friday.
Gold is pulling back reasonably hard. The 2530-2535 level would be an excellent area to consider buying or adding to any open position. The 2510-2515 level is the Make-Or-Break level for Gold (that would also be our stop level).
I still believe Gold will make another move higher - but I don't think Gold will build enough momentum to rally out of the current range until next week.
Bitcoin has pulled back into the APEX range (see the chart). We need to see it hold up near this Apex range - or it could risk falling below $57k again.
Overall, I see all of these charts (SPY/QQQ/Gold/Bitcoin) stalling and attempting to base ahead of next week. Next week, I believe prices will be more volatile and try to trend upward.
As I've been warning, this week, the markets needed to pause a bit. Now is the perfect time to position yourself for the next big move.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY August 28, 2024AMEX:SPY August 28, 2024
15 Minutes
Yesterday AMEX:SPY managed to hold 558 levels even though it opened gap down.
Today for the rise 558.32 to 562.05 holding 560 levels uptrend will continue.
I will go long above 562.5 levels for 564 to 565 as target for today. A good close could take us to 567 this week if 558 is held.
The lower levels are still intact between 553 to 558 levels with 556 as a good support.
Once 553 is broken then we can see a possible $8 to $10 retracement.
So, I will wait to short till 553 is broken.
SPY: The Main Turning Points - H & D Charts.1-Hour Chart (Left Side)
On the 1-hour chart, SPY is showing a consolidation phase within a narrow range between $563.17 and $554.86. The price is moving above a rising trendline, which has acted as a support level, indicating that the market is still trying to maintain its bullish bias. The 21-hour EMA is also trending upwards, further supporting the bullish sentiment. However, the price is nearing the resistance level at $563.17, which has been tested multiple times without a decisive breakout.
If the price manages to break above this resistance, it could signal a continuation of the upward move and we'll probably see a new ATH next. However, failure to break this level might lead to a pullback, potentially retesting the trendline or the lower support at $554.86.
Daily Chart (Right Side)
The daily chart provides a broader view, showing that SPY has been in a steady uptrend, with the price consistently staying above the 21-day EMA. The recent price action shows a test of the $565.16 resistance level, which is the ATH, and it aligns with the upper boundary of the current consolidation range on the 1-hour chart.
The key support level on the daily chart is around $554.86, which is consistent with the support identified on the 1-hour chart. Here we see why: It was a previous top level, and now it is acting as a support - an example of the Principle of Polarity. A break below this level could indicate a more significant pullback, potentially targeting lower levels, like the 21-day EMA.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: $563.17 (1-hour chart), $565.16 (daily chart).
Support: $554.86 (both 1-hour and daily charts).
Summary
SPY is currently consolidating within a tight range, with the potential for either a breakout above $563.17 to continue the bullish trend or a pullback towards the $554.86 support level. The overall trend remains bullish, as indicated by the rising EMA on both the 1-hour and daily charts. For now, should monitor the breakout or breakdown of this consolidation range to gauge the next significant move. NVDA's earnings will play a big role in the next move, so this week will be interesting.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
Rising wedge pattern on the daily and divergence on EMACDThere is no gas in SPY to go further top. It is hovering below 565 for over a week now. Even the Jackson Hole talk couldn't push it above 565. I believe the market is waiting for some major catalyst to break down
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-27 Update : Possible Long Squeeze EODToday's SPY Cycle Pattern should reflect a decidedly bearish overtone to price action. The fact that we opened with a GAP downward and have waffled around just above yesterday's closing price does not really excite me.
I see price failing and waffling around in "no man's land".
This video covers the SPY, Bitcoin, & Gold.
Stay agile. I see the markets rolling downward into the end of the day today - but I could be wrong.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY Puts Reversal Strategy Great trade setup for some puts. This is all I do. Look for signs that the buyers are tired at a resistance level in this case it was the pre market high and on the 15min chart we got a confirmation broke it down to the 5, 3, and 2 min charts and got a good entry. Averaged down on the pops and saw some great downside.
Made 40% Profit on $SPY 1-Day Swing TradeFrom my thesis yesterday, AMEX:SPY was able to break out of it's bearish order block on the 1 Hour time frame and give us 40% profit overnight. AMEX:SPY
$SPY August 27, 2024AMEX:SPY August 27, 2024
15 Minutes.
Yesterday AMEX:SPY had a gap up 563.91 and could not sustain.
So, for the day considering the last rise 554.98 to 563.91 holding 558 is important.
If that is broken 200 averages in 15 minutes is broken and AMEX:SPY in weak in this time frame.
Once 558 is broken and close near low of bar we will take the last rise from 518.05 to 563.91.
This has 23.8% retracement at 553 levels.
So, we can expect some volatility in 15 minutes as long it is below 200 averages.
$SPY BEARISH OR… WHAT?looks like she wants to pull back from uptrend 👀 test 555 support and dip in 548 range
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-27: Close-1 GAP Trend PatternToday's pattern suggests the GAP Trend portion reflects whether today's open is above or below yesterday's close.
If today's open is above yesterday's close, then I would expect a higher opening GAP leading to a fairly strong rally phase today.
If today's open is below yesterday's close, then I would expect a lower opening GAP leading to a fairly strong selling phase today.
These types of patterns do not often reflect a reversal bar - although reversals can happen.
Overall, I believe the bias is still to the upside. But I also believe price is consolidating in early trading this week and needs to continue to consolidate before attempting to rally again later this week (Thursday/Friday maybe).
So, I would not be surprised to see price stall out a bit today.
Let's see what happens. We may see a bit of a rally or sell-off depending on where today's opening price is and if we see any substantial Opening GAP. The bigger the GAP, the more likely we are going to see price trend.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Main Focus List REview RTH 8-27-24Going over our main Focus List RTH's looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and how we can position for the upcoming day/week. no A+ trade setup no trade for us today. NVDA out tomorrow will dictate the next leg of the market.
ETF movements and Indices taking a breatherLast week, we talked about the hope that the indices would take a breather. It is taking a small breather, which would rhythmically aid in its next move upward. While tech stocks were beat down today. Most other ETFs had moved higher - Financials, Consumer Products, Energy, Utilities, and so on.
There is some risk of more selloff in indices, especially if it retraces more before the end of the week. The more conservative approach would be to sellout longs if indices open negative tomorrow and wait for re-entry point.
Thoughts on $SPY for 8.26.24We filled the bearish order block. AMEX:SPY looks like it wants to go down from here from filling the bearish order block on the hourly time frame.
short the yellow lineas above. i see doom in the years ahead. the run up since 2009 is ending. i think this represents a very good trade this week.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-26 : BLANK SPY Cycle PatternToday's blank SPY Cycle Pattern means there is no definition for today's pattern in the pattern library. I will dig into this a bit further.
At this point, when we get blank days, it is usually a fairly rare and uncommon pattern that may not develop very often. That makes it hard to identify if there are not many reference points to determine what type of price action to expect.
Still, I go into detail related to what I believe will happen over the next few days/weeks for the SPY, Gold, Bitcoin and provide a series of opportunities for traders in this video.
Remember, it is not about trying to force the markets to make a move. Often, we have to sit back and wait for the next big opportunity to setup.
I believe the next 5+ trading days will present a moderate melt-up in the SPY and Gold. I believe Bitcoin will stay rather flat after the rally over the past 3+ days.
This is why I believe the markets are transitioning into a bigger breakaway phase setting up for Sept 4~10. Thus, I believe traders need to prepare for that bigger move over the next 5~7+ trading days and stay cautious right now.
We are going to move into a consolidation/peak/top phase near Sept 20~25. So, this next rally phase only lasts from Sept 5th through Sept 21 - about 10+ trading days.
Heads up.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
S&P bulls are strong; new historical high?Last week was marked by an increase in selling pressure, which, despite all efforts, has not had a significant impact. As we can see on the daily chart, the stairstep pattern remained intact—even a powerful attack on Thursday was unable to break the previous day's low. The bulls maintained control, leading to a small rally the following day (I highlighted the importance of the stairstep pattern in my previous review).
As we approach the end of the month, there are a few things to keep an eye on:
1. The price is in a weekly uptrend, which has not been seriously threatened so far. Buyers maintain long-term control over the price.
2. The daily timeframe is also under buyers' control.
3. All major S&P sectors are moving in the same direction.
Price is approaching previous major high ( 565 ), which can act as a resistance but there is no guaranty that it will hold for long. The last consolidation, which began on July 17th, was triggered more by bullish exhaustion than by strong selling at this level. This suggests that there may be little to safeguard it.
Given all the above, there is no reason to believe that market is currently under threat. For the trend to shift to the bearish side, three things must happen (from the TA perspective):
1. Daily Sellers must take down the previous day low, breaking stairstep pattern
2. Weekly Sellers must take down the previous week low ( 553.8 ), setting weekly lower high
3. Month should close red (below 552 )
Until then we’re in a bull market.
90% Probability of Success in SPY? Testing a Simple Strategy!Hey everyone! I want to share a trade idea I'm testing on the SPY ETF.
Based on weekly data since 2000, I've noticed the following pattern: if last week's closing price is higher than the week before and the candle's body (the difference between the opening and closing prices) is larger than usual, there's a 90% chance that the next closing price will be above last week's low.
With that in mind, today I'm planning to sell a put option with a strike price close to last week's low (553.86), expecting the price to stay above that level until the end of this week. If this happens, I'll collect the premium from selling the option.
Why I'm Sharing This:
I'm more interested in sharing the analysis and seeing how it works out rather than discussing profits or losses. I believe this is a good way to generate information for those who also like to explore the market in a more statistical and objective way.
Remember: this is not a trade recommendation. It's just an idea based on historical patterns that I'm testing.
Let's see how it plays out! Has anyone else tried something similar? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
