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SPY (S&P 500 ETF) – Fibonacci Reversal + Bullish Continuation SeThis chart highlights a potential retracement zone before a major continuation leg to the upside, based on Fibonacci levels and price structure. 📊 Technical Breakdown Current Price: $589.39 Recent High: $595.54 (Fibonacci 1.0) Key Fibonacci Levels: 0.618 → $562.28 (First retracement target) 0.5 → $555.57 0.382 → $547.38 Critical Support: $552.15 (confluence with historical demand & fib zone) Projected Target (1.382 Fib Extension): $629.02 🧠 Probabilistic Interpretation 🔻 Short-term pullback toward $552.15 = 60% probability based on multiple rejections from 0.886/1.0 Fib zones. 🔼 Continuation to $629.02 = 70% probability if price finds support at golden ratio (0.618) or 0.5 zone. 🧠 Structure favors smart money re-accumulation after engineered liquidity grab. 🌐 Macro Context (as of May 31, 2025) Fed Watch: Market pricing in 70% chance of no rate cut in June. July data will be crucial. VIX: Suppressed, but starting to rise—indicative of market hedging short-term volatility. Earnings season: Mixed signals—AI sector outperforms while cyclicals lag. 🚨 Trade Plan for Professionals Watch for price action near $555–552. Enter long upon bullish engulfing or SMC confirmation at demand zone. First TP: $595.50 Final TP: $628.80–$629.02 SL: Below $541.72 (Fib 0.382) 🧠 Final Note This chart reflects a classic Fibonacci retracement & extension structure that institutional traders often monitor. Aligns with DSS and WaverVanir’s discretionary outlook. #SPY #SMP500 #FibLevels #SmartMoney #LiquiditySweep #WaverVanir #TechnicalAnalysis #FibonacciTrading #TradingView
AMEX:SPY
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
SpyGoing over Spy Dow jones NYA I'll keep this mostly cylicals and broader market.. I've written up a qqq post where I cover most tech indexes.. Let's start with NYSE or TVC:NYA This covers 3000 stocks.. you ever read about weak breadth in the market? Well when ever this is Lagging behind nasdaq and the market is being dragged along by 6 tech stocks then that's what it means. Ok so last week when the Spy dumped from 595 to 575 in 2 days, a big part of that was NYA ran into a brick wall here at 20,000 as you can see. Add to that price had formed a rising wedge from the melt up from April lows.. So price rejected at 20,000 on NYA but bounced at its 200sma similar to Spy at 575 which let's you know how connected the 2 are So now we go into this week here literally 1% away from that same resistance.. Nothing moves NYA and IWM more than the monthly jobs, this is because Job numbers reflect economic strength and a weaker economy will impact Cylicals and small caps the most .. I don't think we break above that trendline resistance, too much uncertainty around Tariffs, Also here's the weekly RSI on NYA dating back 2yrs At resistance and divergent... I think we break below the 200sma this week Either with Wed ADP or Friday nonfarm payrolls.. Usually to get below the 200sma it takes a GAP down so that's why I think the action takes place pre market on some data. TVC:DJI Dow jones I'm conflicted a little here. Price is stuck below trendline resistance and 200ma But price is also showing a possible bullish H&S inside a Pennant. Dow jones would only be bullish above 43,000.. As you can see there is not anymore room fawk around.. price will break in either direction come next week.. I'm leaning to the bearish side here but things only get seriously bearish back below 40,000 because that would put it back inside that April box 2 of the sectors that really moves the dow is Financials and Health Look at this XLF weekly chart Price is distributing at a 15yr resistance Zoomed in Looks like a 2022 repeat about to happen as early as this fall The position XLF is in makes me doubt Financials will lend a boosting hand here . XLV - health care on the other hand looks really bullish short term Daily channel shows a 7% upside to channel top Daily rsi showing bullish Divergence So health could offset some of the dow losses but not enough if tech and Financials rollover. Lastly my number one reason I'm bearish on the dow is DJT or dow jones transportation Weekly candle stuck below 15,000, trendline resistance , 20 and 200ma. Seasonality June and July is bullish for DJT because of the traveling but if they can't break above this area in the middle of its best seasonality then nothing is safe Lastly Spy ALWAYS KNOW WHERE YOUR MOVING AVERAGES ARE BEFORE YOU TAKE A TRADE! Me personally I only use 20,50,200.. EMA and SMA. I say this because the area of spy 572-577 has a powering of moving averages on both weekly and daily time frames If spy breaks below 570 then we are headed straight for this box. 547-550 Below that and it's death for the bulls.. if it bounces there then we'll see what happens Weekly RSI same as NYA .. at resistance So here's a 4 hr chart.. As you can see, rising wedge.. But pay attention to the yellow trendline resistance. That range is 590-584.. A open below 582 and it's a short to 575.. A open above 593 and it's one last long to 600 before the big short 585-592 is choppy and I wouldn't trade it Like I said earlier, you normally never see price intra day slide below the daily 200sma .. so if they are going to break below 575 this week ( I believe) then they will do it pre market. I don't think this week will be all doom and gloom. Why? Because of NQ 4hr moneyflow.. it's gotten too oversold so they are likely to have a tech pop this week probably Tues or wed which I think will be your opportunity to position short
AMEX:SPYShort
by ContraryTrader
2
SPY Breakdown Watch – Smart Money Concepts (1H Chart)🔎 Chart: SPY | TradingView 1H At Wavervanir International LLC, our discretionary analysis on SPY (S&P 500 ETF) using SMC + ORB logic is signaling potential downside. 🔍 Market Structure: CHoCH (Change of Character) confirmed after BOS (Break of Structure), suggesting buyer exhaustion. Premium zone rejection with multiple failed attempts to reclaim the weak high. Liquidity has shifted toward discount zones, aligning with volume imbalance and OB zones below. 🎯 Target Zones: Immediate liquidity pool: 579.85 Demand block confluence: 575–565 zone Deep mitigation OB: 560–557.50 zone 📊 Macro Context: Bond volatility rising (MOVE index) Fed holding rates steady, inflation stickiness remains Liquidity tightening into quarter-end 🧠 Strategic View: SPY looks poised to fill inefficiencies into the 575–565 range unless macro tailwinds emerge. Volume supports this as market seeks equilibrium post-premium rejection.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Price Bounced Above Gap Support Zone - DailySPY (S&P500 ETF) price has bounced up from the $576 price support gap level. EMA Golden Cross is still active, the yellow 50EMA crossed above the red 200EMA which could signal a longer term bullish rally. SPY price has been in an uptrend since May 2025. Resistance Levels: $594, $596, $600, $607, $613. Support Levels: $581, $575, $572, $567, $564. Tariff and trade deal news, corporate earnings, presidential and government law changes, inflation data, economic data, and consumer sentiment can all affect Stock and ETF prices.
AMEX:SPY
by NoFomoCharts
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 28, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 28, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏭 Trump’s Tax Bill Threatens Clean-Energy Boom President Trump’s proposed budget aims to accelerate the expiry of key clean-energy tax credits, jeopardizing over $321 billion in investments and forcing manufacturers to pause expansion—risking a slowdown in solar and wind growth. 🛢️ Oil Flat as OPEC+ Output Hike Looms Brent and WTI held steady amid expectations that OPEC+ will announce a 411K bpd production increase for July at today’s ministerial meeting—balancing tighter U.S. supply and easing trade-tension pressures. 💻 Nvidia Earnings Eye Export-Curbs Impact Ahead of Q1 results, analysts warn U.S. chip-export restrictions to China could shave $5.5 billion from Nvidia’s ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) sales this quarter, testing AI-led growth optimism. 📈 Wall Street Climbs on Tariff Reprieve U.S. futures jumped after Trump delayed planned EU tariffs until July 9, lifting risk appetite across megacaps—Nvidia led gains with a 2.7% pre-market rise. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, May 28: 9:00 AM ET: Case-Shiller Home Price Index Measures month-over-month changes in home values across 20 major U.S. cities—a key gauge of housing-market trends. 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence Index Tracks consumer sentiment on current business and labor-market conditions and expectations for the next six months. 2:00 PM ET: FOMC Minutes (May 6–7 Meeting) Detailed readout of policymakers’ economic outlook and voting rationale—critically watched for hints on future rate policy. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
The Biggest Turning Point Isn’t in the Market — It’s in YouHard truth: No new strategy, indicator, or tool will work until you change how you operate. Here’s why: Strategy hopping is fear wearing a costume. If you keep switching tools after every loss, you’re not refining — you’re running. You don’t need more — you need fewer, better decisions. Simplifying your process is harder than adding new ideas. But that’s where edge lives. Belief is the multiplier. Without conviction, you’ll quit before any system has time to work. 🚀 The shift? For us, it was trusting what we built — TrendGo. When we finally stopped tweaking and started trusting the system, everything changed: our mindset, our consistency, our results. The best tool is worthless if you don’t believe in your process. 🧠 Start there.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by TrendGo_Official
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 27–30, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 27–30, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 Tax-and-Debt Debate Rattles Markets Washington’s push to advance a massive tax-cut and spending bill—projected to add $3.8 trillion to an already $36.2 trillion debt—has investors questioning U.S. fiscal discipline. The dollar weakened further, while Treasury yields remain elevated on credit-rating concerns and deficit fears ⚖️ Trump Delays EU Tariffs, Lifts Sentiment President Trump pushed back 50% tariffs on EU goods from June 1 to July 9 after talks with EU leaders. U.S. futures jumped, and global markets breathed easier despite lingering trade-policy uncertainty 📈 Bond Yields Spike, Then Stabilize Both 20- and 30-year Treasury yields jumped above 5.1% before easing slightly as auction demand picked up. Fed officials signaled they expect to hold rates steady for the next two meetings, putting a floor under yields 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, May 28: 9:00 AM ET: Case-Shiller Home Price Index 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence (May) 📅 Wednesday, May 29: 8:30 AM ET: Advance Q1 GDP 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income & Spending (April) 📅 Thursday, May 30: 8:30 AM ET: PCE Price Index (April) 10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales (April) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
This is how ChatGPT would write the marketNVDA earnings will not disappoint PCE will be doable big money has rebalanced and will let it drift higher (along with yields) This week was just a nice healthy dip and markets will just shrug off negative news until the tipping point, in which case another sharp repricing will happen. Followed by a relief rally in August but then bitter disappointment in September. I pause but then I'm sadly strangled to agree... 3Y/5Y hasn't inverted, sentiment is a bit too skittish, and according to chatgpt, this was not a break of the long term pattern and short of super ugly surprises in the original 3 points above, it will not end in capitulation. And again, I might just agree. Even in the midst of the Liberation Day shocks, we barely got into a bear market, there was no massive retaliation and dumping of foreign held treasuries. Basically we built a pretty good nation. Even when the government takes a chainsaw to itself and companies have to pull out their own arms to import supplies and are pausing any capital expenditures until the picture clears up, financial markets are like, meh, it'll be fine. I thought we'd have a earnings ratio collapse by now, but we're even still higher than our Shiller average....
AMEX:SPYLong
by pogicraft
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 23, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 23, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇬🇧 Global Bond Yields Signal Rising Term Premium Long-dated government bond yields in the U.S., U.K., and Japan surged, with the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield touching 5.09%, as investors demand higher compensation for locking in funds amid mounting debt and inflation risks 🏗️ Komatsu Sees Tariff Relief Komatsu’s CEO says a recent U.S.–China trade truce may cut the company’s tariff hit by $140 million, easing cost pressures on its U.S. operations and brightening machinery sector outlook 📉 U.S. Stocks End Flat as Yields Ease Wall Street closed little changed, with the S&P 500 and Dow finishing flat and the Nasdaq up 0.3%, after Treasury yields retreated slightly following recent spikes 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, May 23: 🏠 New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) Reports the number of newly signed contracts for single-family homes, a direct gauge of housing demand and consumer confidence. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Engineering the Hull‑style Exponential Moving Average (HEMA)▶️ Introduction Hull’s Moving Average (HMA) is beloved because it offers near–zero‑lag turns while staying remarkably smooth. It achieves this by chaining *weighted* moving averages (WMAs), which are finite‑impulse‑response (FIR) filters. Unfortunately, FIR filters demand O(N) storage and expensive rolling calculations. The goal of the Hull‑style Exponential Moving Average (HEMA) is therefore straightforward: reproduce HMA’s responsiveness with the constant‑time efficiency of an EMA, an infinite‑impulse‑response (IIR) filter that keeps only two state variables regardless of length. ▶️ From FIR to IIR – What Changes? When we swap a WMA for an EMA we trade a hard‑edged window for an exponential decay. This swap creates two immediate engineering challenges. First, the EMA’s centre of mass (CoM) lies closer to the present than the WMA of the same “period,” so we must tune its alpha to match the WMA’s effective lag. Second, the exponential tail never truly dies; left unchecked it can restore some of the lag we just removed. The remedy is to shorten the EMA’s time‑constant and apply a lighter finishing smoother. If done well, the exponential tail becomes imperceptible while the update cost collapses from O(N) to O(1). ▶️ Dissecting the Original HMA HMA(N) is constructed in three steps: Compute a *slow* WMA of length N. Compute a *fast* WMA of length N/2, double it, then subtract the slow WMA. This “2 × fast − slow” operation annihilates the first‑order lag term in the transfer function. Pass the result through a short WMA of length √N, whose only job is to tame the mid‑band ripple introduced by step 2. Because the WMA window hard‑cuts, everything after bar N carries zero weight, yielding a razor‑sharp response. ▶️ Re‑building Each Block with EMAs 1. Slow leg . We choose αₛ = 3 / (2N − 1) . This places the EMA’s CoM exactly one bar ahead of the WMA(N) CoM, preserving the causal structure while compensating for the EMA’s lingering tail. 2. Fast leg . John Ehlers showed that two single‑pole filters can cancel first‑order phase error if they keep the ratio τ𝑓 = ln2 / (1 + ln2) ≈ 0.409 τₛ . We therefore compute α𝑓 = 1 − e^(−λₛ / 0.409) , where λₛ = −ln(1 − αₛ). 3. Zero‑lag blend . Instead of Hull’s integer 2/−1 pair we adopt Ehlers’ fractional weights: (1 + ln 2) · EMA𝑓 − ln 2 · EMAₛ . This pair retains unity DC gain and maintains the zero‑slope condition while drastically flattening the pass‑band bump. 4. Finishing smoother . The WMA(√N) in HMA adds roughly one and a half bars of consequential delay. Because EMAs already smear slightly, we can meet the same lag budget with an EMA whose span is only √N / 2. The lighter pole removes residual high‑frequency noise without re‑introducing noticeable lag. ▶️ Error Budget vs. Classical HMA Quantitatively, HEMA tracks HMA to within 0.1–0.2 bars on the first visible turn for N between 10 and 50. Overshoot at extreme V‑turns is 25–35 % smaller because the ln 2 weighting damps the 0.2 fs gain peak. Root‑mean‑square ripple inside long swings falls by roughly 15–20 %. The penalty is a microscopic exponential tail: in a 300‑bar uninterrupted trend HEMA trails HMA by about two bars—visually negligible for most chart horizons but easily fixed by clipping if one insists on absolute truncation. ▶️ Practical Evaluation Side‑by‑side plots confirm the math. On N = 20 the yellow HEMA line flips direction in the same candle—or half a candle earlier—than the blue HMA, while drawing a visibly calmer trace through the mid‑section of each swing. On tiny windows (N ≤ 8) you may notice a hair more shimmer because the smoother’s span approaches one bar, but beyond N = 10 the difference disappears. More importantly, HEMA updates with six scalar variables; HMA drags two or three rolling arrays for every WMA it uses. On a portfolio of 500 instruments that distinction is the difference between comfortable real‑time and compute starvation. ▶️ Conclusion HEMA is not a casual “replace W with E” hack. It is a deliberate reconstruction: match the EMA’s centre of mass to the WMA it replaces, preserve zero‑lag geometry with the ln 2 coefficient pair, and shorten the smoothing pole to offset the EMA tail. The reward is an indicator that delivers Hull‑grade responsiveness and even cleaner mid‑band behaviour while collapsing memory and CPU cost to O(1). For discretionary traders wedded to the razor‑sharp V‑tips of the original Hull, HMA remains attractive. For algorith­mic desks, embedded systems, or anyone streaming thousands of symbols, HEMA is the pragmatic successor—almost indistinguishable on the chart, orders of magnitude lighter under the hood.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by mihakralj
$SPY – Bearish RSI Divergence + Gap Below = Risky Setup👀 The RSI divergence has been signaling weakness for several sessions — with lower highs on momentum while price made higher highs. And now, we’re stalling right at a volume shelf (see VRVP) with a big unfilled gap looming just below. ⚠️ Things to watch: Bearish RSI divergence ✔️ Price breakdown confirmation below $582 Gap fill target = ~$572 VRVP shows thin volume beneath current price If momentum rolls over from here, this could accelerate fast into that gap zone.
AMEX:SPY
by SmartSignalss
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 22, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 22, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📈 Treasury Yields Surge Amid Weak Bond Auction U.S. Treasury yields continued their upward trajectory, with the 10-year yield nearing 4.6% and the 30-year yield surpassing 5%, marking the highest levels since early 2023. This increase followed a weak $16 billion auction of 20-year bonds, which attracted less investor demand and sold at higher-than-expected yields. Factors contributing to the rise include fading recession fears, persistent inflation concerns, and growing fiscal worries related to potential tax cut extensions. 📉 Stock Market Declines as Tech Stocks Retreat The stock market experienced significant losses, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.9%, falling below its 200-day moving average. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.6% and 1.4%, respectively. 💼 Snowflake ( NYSE:SNOW ) Reports Strong Earnings Snowflake Inc. reported record quarterly revenue of $1.04 billion, surpassing expectations. Product revenue increased 26% year-over-year to $996.8 million. The company raised its full-year forecast to $4.325 billion, reflecting a 25% year-over-year increase. Despite a GAAP net loss of $430 million, Snowflake posted an adjusted profit of 24 cents per share, exceeding the 21-cent estimate. 📊 Morgan Stanley Turns Bullish on U.S. Stocks Morgan Stanley has shifted to a bullish stance on U.S. stocks and bonds, raising its outlook due to signs of market stabilization and improving growth conditions. The bank maintains a base target of 6,500 for the S&P 500 by mid-2026, with a bullish scenario projecting 7,200. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, May 22: 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Flash U.S. Services PMI for May 10:00 AM ET: Advance Services Report (First Quarter 2025) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY trend reversal linear analysis, with parallel stackingAll the annotations speak for themselves... but just a simple idea to see if there are levels that make sense if the descending line were to be reversed and applied to the ascending trend. Have to follow those rules, and if too cluttered on choppy weeks- then hold the bottom line and only increase the newest line if you have price chopping greater than the height of the biggest candle in said chop. ergo, if the biggest candle is say 4 point up from the last trend line off the inception permanent line ascending trend, then hold that line at the high of that day until price breaks above it. If chops continues above it, then draw another parallel 4 points (the height of that largest candle before the chop started) above the original line and hold it there until the chop continues up or is reverts and heads back down. If you want to see if chop is a flag formation, then take the above example of a big candle up marking a new parallel line high and see if price for 3-4 days stays within it, pull down another parallel from that high and put it on that low...will allow for visual where the flag boundaries may be... BTC 4hr examples:
AMEX:SPY
by CYQOTEK