SPY MegaphoneLooks like the spy is sitting inside the descending megaphone, and the pop yesterday died at the top of trendline. Spy is sitting under the 200 Daily as well. I am riding Monthly puts until we breakout, then ill switch to calls.
S27 trade ideas
SPY ... You have to look at things weird to see REALityThis is a half-assed comprehensive look into all that has been going on. The crowd was ready to go ballistic and then magically the guy of the hour roars back and walks into the exact same scenario as '16...all goes calm and no one seems to notice or care about things anymore...That broken down infrastructure...after his Infrastructure Bill...."Bro, dude..it was that deep state yeah, they kept it from happening, he's got it this time, hasn't been taken care of since '16..but he will do it now" --This is actual objectivity and viewed with Boolean> yes or no logic; politics is money just as it's Boolean...did you get paid- yes or no...did something happen- yes or no..so keep your emotion and pre-burned in public schooling (not your fault, just something you were subject to and may, to your core, believe) to the back burner...Think clearly from here:
Quick two questions for you to base everyone on foundational flooring....
In 1969, with the computational power of an Alabama-style Data center filled with Ebay A100 Nvidia cards with a hawktuah load applied before inserting into the motherboards/connectors....the US was said to do the unthinkable....the unthinkable...as in, why hasn't any country done it again since then. Advanced GPUs, the greatest supercomputer of China...the newest steels and alloys...the newest temperature regulation fabrics...unthinkable...to this day. I'll let that simmer for a sec...
In 1969, Pros, note plurality, picked off, in a moving vehicle, the man who was the last of the true face of America. The unthinkable happened cause he dared to tear the 3-letter crews in charge into a 1000 small pieces, but that did happen...in 1969...in a moving car....with what the Pros I've worked with in my 19 years of Spec Ops and private forces training/instructing call the "T shot". Hit the collarbone/sternum/trachea...for any miss of 2 inch deviation from center shot is lethal in all directions(given 308/Creedmoor variant). Once accomplished, the head is the second shot. Normally on standstill, it is a single man job, but on a moving target it is done with 3 if spotter needed, or two with spotter as second pew-pewer. Unthinkable...but actually done..in 1969...with half ass scopes and no modern tech in way of fragmentation, aka Controlled Chaos rounds. Yet...in 2024, nope...just can't seem to get it done, basically just not possible, don't have the advancements of say, my buddies with 8x infrared, bipod equiped coyote collector pew-pewers from Alabama or Montana...but unthinkable of the same crews to be so sloppy the 2nd time when much more tech,but pure perfection when primitive is used..
Hmm, makes you think for a second...if your instagram or X isn't all you use for mental stimulation. So recap:
The Indians hit the Moon with a >>>rover<<<, the Chinese successfully got a >>>rover<<< onto the surface with Indian help after their crash and sharing analytics....and we are having issues getting the carrier rockets to not go ka-gone in mid air. Is rocketry hard...you bet...is aerospace an insane frontier, of course....equal or greater than the deep colossal squid stomping grounds. But people... 1969.. it's all been done before and yet David Attenborough is not doing 4k explorations on the Moon which would literally be the...the...most watch BBC documentary of Human time. But nope...still nothing...simply costs too much and takes too much expertise..."Excuse me Prez...The Z man said the next trove of Billions is going to be arriving when?, his guys are getting impatient on the front lines"
This can be easily argued and data presented...I'm just curious as to why a CDC6600 with 3,000,000 Flops could do it, and the current monster in the US...even though China's is much more powerful...is 1,742 petaFlops..or 1,742 x 10 the 15 power while 1969 was 3 x 10 to the 6
Just a thought...and if that chart doesn't sit well with you at first...and you read this far...then look at it again from a different perspective. I know...Ask Deepseek, or Qwen Max how to do it...they should be about 1 million times better as back then.
"But goin' to Mars yall"...hmmm
The charts you see are just the controlled world reimagined. When a man who is colorblind wears special glasses, the world changes into a paradigm unimaginable since birth. So why fight the chart or what is written above...maybe think someone like me has had way more connections than i care for and yet when sharing, gets put aside for some Insta-ho chick or a dude who has a Spotify podcast...hmm, seems everyone went team red in less than 4 months now that I think of it :) hmm...i wonder
QQQ price action breaks through trend line. SPY does not During the current upward swing of the market, i believe QQQ will break back through its 2 year trend line, indicating a bullish market, and a faster momentum upwards. But, because the SPY price action has fallen further than QQQ, I believe the momentum will subside before it is able to break the trend line, therefore when the price action retests the trend line it will fail indicating a bearish market.. This will cause SPY and then QQQ to fall. and the entire market to continue its downward swing... (apologies for my poor drawing skills)
SPY'S FIRST BUY SIGNAL SINCE MARCH 26, 2020 CONFIRMED!!!In this video where back on AMEX:SPY 2 day chart with an update on our legendary buy signal that printed for the first time since March2020
SPY rally done soon?My overall thesis is we are in the very early stages of a multi-year decline ultimately with the S&P 500 below 3500. I have been wrong many times before so I will just take this thing in stages and see if it plays out. After this massive decline, we should be in for a great market rally of many decades. I am expecting the market to end its recent rally this week. The current rarely would be about a week in length depending when it began for individual stocks. The rally has done a few important things with its slow and prolonged upward movement, mainly prevents a wave 3 signal from occurring during the next decline.
My wave 3 indicator tends to signal wave 3s and 3 of 3s. See my scripts for the specifics of the indicator. If the market had a short wave 4 up and then a sharp or prolonged drop during wave 5, a new wave 3 signal would occur which violates the currently placed Minor wave 3 (yellow 3). Allowing separation from the current wave 3 signal enables wave 5 to drop quick or slow.
This chart applies select movement extensions based on wave 1's movement on the left and then another based on wave 3's movement on the right. I keep the values between 0%-100% on the chart for wave 2s and 4s retracements of the preceding wave's movement for reference even though the retracement values would be inverted.
Specifically for SPY, Minor wave 3 was longer than wave 1, which does not place a maximum length on wave 5. Assuming wave 4 ends on Thursday or Friday, Minor wave 5 could be a week or longer. In that time, at the very least it should drop below wave 3's bottom of 549.68. Using some basic movement extensions, it will likely go lower. The 5 wave lower pattern for this fifth wave is hypothetical, but a bottom could occur between 525-538. Once we bottom, we should see another rally over a few weeks. I will forecast what that could look like as Intermediate wave 1 nears its end.
Another possibility that could play out is we rally through the weekend. In this case Intermediate wave 1 possibly ended at the current Minor 3 bottom. This would mean we are in Intermediate wave 2 now. I will evaluate this solution if the rally continues next week.
A Clear Bottom. Headed North? Hey Traders,
We're back again with another SPY prediction as the last one we had from Feb. 1st was spot on with the big sell off of 10% from the top.
This is shortly after the FOMC news which has interest rates unchanged, however, market sentiment seemed to like it as the moving averages came to a head and we had some serious buying after 2pm.
I'd like to point out that there is a few good things happening aside from the market. The astronauts are being rescued, Ukraine and Russia and working on a deal, and inflation rates have been coming down.
On a technical note, we broke out of the downward channel and we're breaking above longer timeframe moving averages.
I'm going to assume the direction is north, somewhere in the region of 580 as short-term target.
Let's see what happens in the next 2 weeks.
Thanks for reading!
SPY: Opportunity on the HorizonThe SPY has undergone what some might characterize as a strategically influenced decline, following an extreme three-standard-deviation move to the downside in under 20 days. The market appears to be adjusting its expectations in response to the evolving policy landscape under Trump’s administration and the broader transition to a new government.
I am inclined to believe this as a form of "controlled demolition," potentially orchestrated to accelerate the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates sooner rather than later.
With this in mind, I will remain attentive to the broader market structure, particularly monitoring for a potential ABC corrective pattern that could shape near-term price action.
At the moment, price is rebounding from a critical support zone, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend initiated in November 2024. Given the market's current state of being significantly oversold, a period of relief would be preferable to provide liquidity at higher price levels.
The immediate target for this retracement is the 0.618 level of the ongoing downtrend, which coincides with the previous range’s Value Area Low or potentially the Point of Control should a stronger rally materialize.
Beyond this, the anticipated broader ABC correction is expected to unfold, with a target around 530 on the SPY—precisely at the major VWAP level from late 2023, which previously marked the end of the bear market. This level is further in confluence with the 1-1 trend based Fibonacci extension of the swing high, which may signal the magnitude of the corrective move. I will have a better idea of where the correction may conclude once the swing high is in.
This decline is likely to present substantial opportunities for both long-term investors and active traders alike.
Let’s see how the market dynamics evolve from here.
SPY: Breakout from descending channel, rebound underwayThe SPY (ETF tracking the S&P 500) has just broken upward from a clearly defined short-term descending channel identified by the Adaptive Trend Finder (ATF) indicator. This indicator automatically detects the current dominant trend (here at 150 periods) with high relevance, as evidenced by the strong correlation highlighted by the indicator.
Prices are currently moving towards the Hull Moving Average (HMA), which acts as a dynamic short-term resistance. A confirmed close above the HMA (blue line) would strengthen the bullish scenario.
Fractals validated by the Williams Fractals Ultimate indicator also support this rebound, indicating a potential reversal towards the median line of the long-term channel defined by ATF (1200 periods).
Monitor the relative volume (RVOL), currently low, to confirm the bullish recovery. An increase in volume would strengthen the conviction of a sustained upward movement.
SPY at Critical Resistance – Breakout or Pullback Ahead?📊 AMEX:SPY Monthly Macro Outlook 📊
Key Observations:
1️⃣ Long-Term Uptrend Intact – Despite corrections, AMEX:SPY remains in a strong bullish trend, respecting the multi-year trendline since 2009.
2️⃣ Historical Pullback & Recovery – The 2022 market correction (-26%) found strong demand in the highlighted red zone (around $480-$500), leading to a powerful reversal.
3️⃣ Resistance Levels in Play – Price is currently testing key resistance levels at $565, $586, and $609. A rejection here could lead to a healthy pullback before continuation.
4️⃣ Future Outlook – If price consolidates and holds above $565, we could see an attempt to break $609, with the long-term trajectory targeting $700+ in coming years.
Trade Plan:
🔹 Bullish Scenario – A breakout above $609 could lead to price discovery, targeting $650-$700 in 2026-2027.
🔹 Bearish Scenario – A rejection at $565-$609 could trigger a retrace to $523 or $480, offering a buy-the-dip opportunity.
🔹 Invalidation – If AMEX:SPY loses $480 support, the bullish thesis weakens, and deeper downside may be in play.
📈 The trend is your friend, but expect volatility at these levels! Do you see a breakout coming or a healthy pullback first? Drop your thoughts below! 👇
#SPY #StockMarket #Investing #Trading #MacroAnalysis
Socials: @KennyTrades52
SPY - support & resistant areas for today March 18, 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above.
Follow me to get this notified when I publish in the morning. My group in my signature get these first and then ideas and then minds, I also post these for NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:META TVC:VIX in my group, so join if yall havent
Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions.
Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change.
If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91. Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 20 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support!
Need any other charts daily, Or how to trade this? Comment on this.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-18-25 : Gap Reversal Counter-TrendFirst off, thank you for all the great comments and feedback. I really love hearing from TradingView subscribers and how my research is helping everyone find success.
Just recently, I received some DMs from viewers saying my research has been "dead on" - which is great.
One thing is for sure, the big move in Gold/Silver is just getting started.
Today's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Gap-Reversal in a Counter Trend mode. The long-term & short-term bias is currently BEARISH - so I believe the GAP Reversal will be to the upside.
Meaning, I suggest we start the day with a mild lower GAP - followed by a moderate price reversal in early trading, leading to a continued melt-up type of trend for the SPY/QQQ
Gold and Silver are likely to attempt to melt a bit higher into the TOP pattern for today. I believe this is just a temporary resistance level for metals.
Bitcoin is struggling to find upward momentum - but I believe BTCUSD still has a $3k-$5k rally left to reach the current Consolidation highs. We'll see if it breaks higher over the next 3-5 days before rolling over into a new downtrend.
Again, I really appreciate all of my followers and viewers. I want all of you to learn to see, read, and understand price action more clearly than ever before.
That's why I don't use any technical indicators on my chart. I want you to understand PRICE is the ultimate indicator.
Get some..
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 1, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 ISM Manufacturing PMI Release: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, which could influence market sentiment.
🇺🇸🏗️ Construction Spending Data: The U.S. Census Bureau will report on February's construction spending, providing insights into the health of the construction industry and potential impacts on related sectors.
🇺🇸📄 Job Openings Report: The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February will be released, offering a view into labor demand and potential implications for wage growth and consumer spending.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Tuesday, April 1:
🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 49.5%
Previous: 50.3%
Assesses the health of the manufacturing sector; a reading below 50% suggests contraction.
🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: -0.2%
Measures the total value of construction work done; indicates trends in the construction industry.
📄 Job Openings (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 7.7 million
Previous: 7.7 million
Provides insight into labor market demand by reporting the number of job vacancies.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
$SPY BOOOM Perfectly Nailed the Bottom in last nights video
548/546 Bull put spreads were the money play today on that drop. And of course that would have been the place to go long on the day.
SPY: SPY looking a bit like scary hour? Continuous tariff new’s scaring the market. Many continue to say Bearish then some say Bullish.
Looking like it can retest the demand zone I see at the 1M at 584.83 but today 3/30 on AH looks like things may be gapping down already.
What are your thoughts?
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 31 – April 4, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report: The March employment data, set for release on Friday, April 4, is expected to show a slowdown in job growth, with forecasts predicting an increase of 140,000 nonfarm payrolls, down from 151,000 in February. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.1%. This report will be closely monitored for signs of economic momentum and potential impacts on Federal Reserve policy.
🇺🇸💼 President Trump's Tariff Announcement: President Donald Trump is scheduled to unveil his "reciprocal tariffs" plan on Wednesday, April 2, dubbed "Liberation Day." The announcement is anticipated to include a 25% duty on imported vehicles, which could significantly impact the automotive industry and broader market sentiment. Investors are bracing for potential volatility in response to these trade policy developments.
🇺🇸📊 Manufacturing and Services Sector Updates: Key indicators for the manufacturing and services sectors are due this week. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, scheduled for Tuesday, April 1, is expected to show a slight contraction with a forecast of 49.5%, down from 50.3% in February. The ISM Services PMI, set for release on Thursday, April 3, is projected at 53.0%, indicating continued expansion but at a slower pace. These reports will provide insights into the health of these critical sectors.
MarketWatch
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, March 31:
🏭 Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) (9:45 AM ET):
Forecast: 45.5
Previous: 43.6
Measures business conditions in the Chicago area, with readings below 50 indicating contraction.
📅 Tuesday, April 1:
🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: -0.2%
Indicates the total amount spent on construction projects, reflecting trends in the construction industry.
📄 Job Openings (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 7.7 million
Previous: 7.7 million
Provides insight into labor demand by measuring the number of job vacancies.
📅 Wednesday, April 2:
🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.6%
Previous: 1.7%
Reflects the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, indicating manufacturing demand.
📅 Thursday, April 3:
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 226,000
Previous: 224,000
Measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing insight into labor market conditions.
📊 Trade Balance (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -$123.0 billion
Previous: -$131.4 billion
Indicates the difference between exports and imports of goods and services, reflecting the nation's trade activity.
📅 Friday, April 4:
💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: 0.3%
Measures the change in earnings per hour for workers, indicating wage inflation.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY nearing major support levels.Let's see if Spy can continue to hold 61.8 Fib Retracement at 550! A break could see further downside to the 540 area.
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Market Cycle Analysis – Correction coming ?This chart presents a macro view of SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on a bi-weekly timeframe, highlighting key market cycle corrections and potential upcoming trends.
Key Observations:
🔴 Trendline Support: The price action has consistently respected a long-term ascending trendline, with previous corrections bouncing off similar levels.
📉 Historical Market Corrections: Red vertical lines mark significant past corrections (Feb 2020, Dec 2021), aligning with dips in the lower indicator, suggesting cyclical downturns.
📊 Momentum Indicator (Lower Panel): Past dips in this momentum indicator (highlighted with red arrows) coincided with major corrections in the SPY chart. The recent downward trend raises concerns about another potential market pullback.
🔮 Future Projection (March 2025?): Based on previous cycles, the next major correction could occur around March 2025, aligning with potential trendline retests. If history repeats, we may see a pullback before resuming the uptrend.
Key Questions for Traders & Investors:
✅ Will SPY respect the trendline and recover, or are we heading for a deeper correction?
✅ Does the current market structure resemble past cycle downturns?
✅ How will macroeconomic conditions influence SPY’s next move?
Let me know your thoughts! Are you preparing for a correction, or do you see more upside potential? 🚀📉
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly!
$540 incoming put trade expiring 4/4 or 4/11
AMEX:SPY
I start these Anchored VWAPs where the volume was the lowest before a major upside or downside.
When I entered this trade $540 expiring 4/4 was at $.5 on 3/27 on Thursday around 9.55am currently $2.06 closing week, however I want to highlight that the $540-$530 would be the major leg down and we might see the $570-$580 levels for first week of June imo.
Note: I am heavily comparing price actions for nowadays with 2022 first half drawdown.
$SPY down to 515 area during this leg down.IMHO,
I see a path for the SPY during this leg down to drop to the 515 area.
SPY to follow DJT and XHBIn last year's big move up SPY trailed DJT (Dow Jones Transportation Index) and XHB (A Homebuilders ETF) by 2-months and 1-month respectively. In November, DJT crashed. In December, XHB crashed. It's January now. If nothing is being delivered, and homebuilders have no one to sell to that can't be good for the greater market.
U.S. Propaganda Contrarian TradeU.S. Propaganda vs. Market Reality: A Contrarian Trade Strategy: This idea leverages the growing disconnect between U.S. rhetoric and the increasingly cautious stance of its trading partners and traveling public.
SPY Hanging on Mid-Range Support – Will It Rebound or Flush?⚠️ Technical Analysis (TA) – Intraday View
Current Price: ~$567.56
* SPY recently experienced a CHoCH followed by BOS, but now formed a new CHoCH → bearish shift in structure.
* Price is testing a minor demand zone between 566–567, holding just above the larger support base at 560–555.
* Volume increased on recent sell candles, showing seller control — but Stoch RSI signals nearing exhaustion.
Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish crossover – but histogram showing potential slowing of momentum.
* Stoch RSI: Deeply oversold and starting to turn up – signals possible bounce/retracement coming.
🔐 Key Levels
Support Zones:
* 566–567 → Short-term demand / micro CHoCH
* 560 → Highest negative GEX zone – PUT support
* 555–550 → Strong liquidity zone & 2nd PUT Wall
Resistance Zones:
* 572.5 → HVL zone and broken structure
* 580 → Gamma wall zone, strong CALL resistance
* 590–600 → Extended resistance levels for swings
🧠 GEX & Options Flow Analysis (TanukiTrade Pro)
* GEX Sentiment: 🔴🔵🔴 — Bearish skew, with a weak neutral pocket
* IVR: 26.4 → Volatility low, but near option seller zone
* IVx avg: 20.7
* PUT$%: 53.8% — Strong bearish hedging flow
* CALL Resistance: 580 → gamma ceiling
* PUT Wall:
* 560 → Highest negative NetGEX (dealer support)
* 555 & 550 → backup defense zones
* HVL: 572.5 → key flip level
📌 Current setup shows dealers are heavily short gamma below 572.5, causing negative delta pressure.
🛠️ Trade Setups
📈 Bullish Setup – Bounce from 566–567
* If SPY holds and reclaims 570 with strong bid, a move toward HVL possible
* Entry: Break and hold above 570
* Target 1: 572.5
* Target 2: 578
* Stop-Loss: Below 565
* Options Play:
* Buy Apr 3 $575 Calls
* OR Call Debit Spread: Buy $570 / Sell $580
📉 Bearish Setup – Breakdown Below 565
* Confirmed lower high and break of demand → opens trapdoor
* Entry: Below 565 with momentum
* Target 1: 560
* Target 2: 555
* Target 3: 550
* Stop-Loss: Above 570
* Options Play:
* Buy Apr 3 $560 Puts
* OR Put Spread: Buy $565 / Sell $555
🧭 Final Outlook
* Bias: Bearish → unless 572.5 HVL is reclaimed.
* SPY is caught between strong PUT support at 560 and heavy gamma ceiling at 580.
* If market sentiment worsens or macro triggers hit, 555 is the magnet zone.
* If buyers step in and hold 566+, bounce setups are likely — but it must reclaim HVL for any strength.
📛 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please manage your risk accordingly.
Massive Rising wedge 4hr chartMassive rising wedge on 4hr chart!! Been tracking this the last couple weeks. It’s been respecting the trend lines for the this pattern. I believe this is either last leg down in the pattern or one more leg up before it completes the pattern and drops. Target would be 550-560 next week and then 540-550 the following week.
With April 2nd with tariffs being finalized we could see this move happen between now and then. If this is the last leg down before it completes the pattern and drops more and breaks the bottom trend line it will happen by either Friday or Monday. If it does leg up it will most definitely be April 2nd when it breaks through bottom trend line. Let’s see how this plays out but for those saying that we are not in a bear market and the bottom was back 552 then your not paying attention. I feel like the bottom could one of 3 targets - $490-20% drop, $430-20% drop, $307-50% drop. Now this all depends on Senior Cheeto. I am thinking 20%or 30% is ideal.
