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S27 trade ideas

SPY EOW TARGETS! SPY EOW TARGETS 585 bullish 551 bearish 530 oh no Bullish Bias till 555 is broken 1. To maintain a healthy uptrend SPY will need a retracement to 558-560 2. While reddit is panicking I'll be looking at a short swing trade, stop below 555 and targeting 570-573 3. 570 will prob be a chop zone before another liquidity swoop lower, then after or leading up to FOMC we pump to 585 TL;DR Bullish Bias for now, look for long setups, catch a swing play once retracement to 560ish is complete
AMEX:SPYLong
by Dacubemastr
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 5–9, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 5–9, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Fed Holds Rates Amid Political Pressure The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during its meeting on May 6–7, despite political pressure to lower it. Investors will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision remarks for insights into future monetary policy directions. 📊 Key Economic Indicators on Tap This week brings several important economic data releases, including the U.S. trade balance, initial jobless claims, consumer credit, and wholesale inventories. These indicators will provide insights into the health of the economy amid ongoing trade tensions and concerns over consumer confidence. 💼 Corporate Earnings in Focus Major companies such as Palantir ( NASDAQ:PLTR ), Advanced Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD ), Uber ( NYSE:UBER ), Walt Disney ( NYSE:DIS ), and Ford ( NYSE:F ) are scheduled to report earnings this week. Investors will be watching these reports for signs of how companies are navigating the current economic landscape. 🌐 Global Events and Leadership Changes Europe is set for significant leadership changes, with Friedrich Merz expected to be confirmed as Germany’s new chancellor. Additionally, the Vatican’s conclave to elect a new pope convenes on Wednesday. These events, along with the 80th anniversary of VE Day, may have broader implications for global markets. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, May 5: 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Composite PMI (April Final) 10:00 AM ET: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (April) 📅 Tuesday, May 6: 8:30 AM ET: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (March) 📅 Wednesday, May 7: 2:00 PM ET: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision 2:30 PM ET: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Press Conference 📅 Thursday, May 8: 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims 10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (March) 📅 Friday, May 9: 3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit (March) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
US Outperformance, when will it end?The US market has consistently outperformed global markets since the global financial crisis, it has also outperformed since the tech bubble. A portion of this can be attributed to a strong dollar (many markets outperformed in local currency). However this strong dollar performance may be coming to an end. In addition there are structural reasons why the US has and may continue to outperform: 1. A larger weighting to higher growth sectors such as technology, communication services and a lower weight to lower growth sectors such as energy and materials. 2. Better rule of law, better focus on shareholder returns, less crowding from the government and state owned enterprises lowering the return of markets. (EM SOEs as an example) 3. US attracting global talent and fostering innovation. "The smartest person in any subject will likely go to the US' So how can the US consistently underperform given these things? 1. Well for one the dollar may start to be a worse performing currency, it seems the current administration wants that. This not only lowers the performance of the US compared to global markets it also lowers the foreign inflows to US assets and also benefits EMs with dollar denominated debts. 2. The idea that the US attracts the best talent and fosters innovation may be declining with the current cultural attacks on immigration and the federal government spending cuts impacting research projects. 3. Global markets currently have a lower weighting to high growth sectors however this may not continue and instead we may start to see the marginal weight of sectors going to higher growth sectors instead of lower growth sectors. 4. The darling companies in most countries may list in their local markets instead of in the US. (Seeing the UK ease regulations of share classes, Chinese companies not welcomed in the US, European companies redomiciling back to Europe) 5. Valuations, Valuations, Valuations. Gun to your head: Next ten years would the multiple become a headwind or tailwind for the US market? What about for global markets? US trades at roughly 21x forward earnings whereas the UK trades at 12x, Eurozone at 14x, Japan at 13.5x, EM at 12x and China at 11x. If after 10 years the US trades at an 18x multiple and the UK as an example trades at a 15x valuation that would be an annualized headwind of 1.5% for the US and an annualized tailwind of 2.3% for the UK. Add to that the effect of low starting valuations on yield (US net shareholder yield is close to 2% whereas the UK yields 4%). Just rough numbers on performance for US vs UK next 10 years. US: -1.5% multiple change, 2% yield, 10% earnings growth = 10.5% UK: 2.3% multiple change, 4% yield, 6% earnings growth, 1% currency = 13.3% Everyone is over allocated to the US and is under allocated outside the US. Currently the US represents around 20% of global GDP however it represents 70% of global market cap. 70 cents of every dollar in the equity market is in and goes to the US. Will this likely increase or decrease as a share? The next question becomes who will take that share if it falls? Investing outside the US does not mean: Investing in markets with bad shareholder friendliness Investing in markets with a history of fraud Investing in markets with notorious related party transactions Investing in markets with high starting valuations. Some markets such as China can have the first 3 issues applied to it, some markets such as India may frankly have all of these issues. Some markets in Europe may have the first and last aspect. And some markets likely have none of these issues. I propose Japan, UK and Northern Europe. History is only a guide however the history of returns involved one of the single best economic performances of any country coming from the US which resulted in an amazing stock market with great returns, this is not guaranteed. Historically stocks return nominally 10% and on a real basis 7% which can be decomposed to 3% yield and 7% earnings growth with virtually no multiple change (on long enough time horizons) when you start at a high valuation the yield component is lower and you need higher earnings growth to compensate. And on a much longer time horizon earnings growth is what really matters. Earnings growth does not exist out of no where, it usually tracks nominal gdp growth + a margin increase from operations and or sector compositions. Nothing is guaranteed, your next maximum drawdown is in the future, expect the unexpected and keep invested as the global debt bubble will likely be inflated away.
AMEX:SPY
by walmutlaq2003
SPY A Fall Expected! SELL! My dear friends, SPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 566.62 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 542.79 Recommended Stop Loss - 579.54 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
2
Spy.. The wedgesRemember this, when it comes to technical analysis, anything that goes up really fast form's a rising wedge most of the time and anything that drops quickly form's a falling wedge. The Spy has risen 12% since April 21 and after this week i we will give half back and head to 533-535. As you know market goes no where without tech.. So I'll just show you the proce action of the biggest tech sectors AMEX:XLK AMEX:XLC NASDAQ:SMH And lastly NASDAQ:QQQ A big red flag in addition to that wedge is the RSI Divergence since April 23 shown on qqq 1hour rsi Seeing Divergence is like noticing Ball tires; you don't know the exact date the tires will bust but you know it's coming and you just hope your aren't driving (In calls). This is Qqq daily chart.. 200sma purple line Red line 20sma We closed right below 200 day but we are 7% away from the 20sma.. qqq usually extended 4-5% from the 20sma before retesting it. So long story short stay away from tech calls ! 2 reasons I think the Spy can make another high this week. 1. Vix still has a gap to close at 21.50 Fallen wedge here, not surprising, vix pattern is usually opposite of spy. I think an explosive moves comes soon here 2. Dow jones , XLF and IWM have the April 2nd liberation day gap to close .. The dow jones gap is 2% wide, that means another 800pts up. You ever seen the dow pump 800pts and the Spy not go up? Me neither So I think unless Spy breaks back below 560 early in the week we could melt up to 572-575. With no big tech earnings that pop up would likely come from FOMC wed.. Whatever intra week high the market makes, I don't think it will close near it.. what I mean is, let's say Spy spike to 572 wed I think we will close the week 560 or lower Becareful Swinging calls, with all these tech sectors showing a rising wedge I'm sure some of these tech names reporting will disappoint. Lots of low volume chop early in the week.. count me out until Wed Bigger picture Unless we break 530 we aren't headed to 510.. if we break below 510 then 495 will come.. below 495 is death If we close the week above 585 somehow then we are headed back to 610 Lastly Es 4hour chart Cleanest look here. Yellow trendline represents higher lows. When we break rising wedge I will short to Yellow trendline
AMEX:SPYShort
by ContraryTrader
13
SP500 ETF: Fibonacci MappingAs you may know, Williams Fractals indicator identifies potential reversal points by marking a high (or low) surrounded by two lower highs (or higher lows) on each side, forming a five-bar pattern that signals possible turning points in price. Unfortunately, the simplicity of such indicator provides just tiny perspective, undermining broad implication of the concept. Before I begin diving into processing geometric narrative of emerging price via fibonacci channels, I want to explain how I interpret fractals. When I use the term "fractal", I'm not just talking about the points alone. Market continuously corrects itself, so analyzing it by price alone can bring more confusion than help. The object of observation shouldn't be limited to quantifying just by a single property. Chaos by default requires awareness from both price and time aspects. The easiest way to root it in my vision was through realization that price is a function of trading time intervals. Its activity can be described as cyclical progression, as if it is wired by multiple "springs" of different tensions. Classic TA patterns known to literally anyone are great for anticipating a move in surface level forecasts. Since my line of work focuses on prediction over forecasts, it requires deeper structural awareness behind complex oscillations. Let's observe the way selloff scales from ATH and how it impacts fractal hierarchy. The first corrective bullish wave can be explained as a reaction to initial impulsive bearish wave. The bigger scale drop from ATH to a lower point explains why the corrective bullish wave looks the way it is. And so on: In fractals, scaling laws describe how key properties change with size, typically following power-law relationships that reflect the structure’s self-similarity, where a characteristic scales with the size raised to an exponent. To build a probabilistic model, we must keep in mind how the smaller bits make up bigger scale picture. ATH, established bottom and angle of progression defined by pullback highs, all those points have structural weight. Since psychology of masses that shapes price dynamics is governed by mathematical sequences found in nature, it's fair to use Fibonacci Channels to map the geometry of interconnectedness. Similarly, all of those points can be referred by another fibonacci channel with opposite direction. From my perspective, traditional TA patterns reflect just phases of cycle, this is why I unify those fragments into broader scalable shapes. This distinctive branch of Fractal Analysis allows to track systematic aspects of market behavior and explains how a pattern replicates itself in rhythmic continuity.
AMEX:SPY
by fract
SPY will make new highs in coming weeks to monthsI decided to swap to the weekly view and found the 3 most bullish candlestick patterns all appearing in the month of April. 1st: Piercing Pattern: This occurred on the week following Liberation day. The piercing pattern occurs when price closes above the midpoint of the prior weeks red bar after opening below the low of the previous week. It signals that the price action was very emotional and reactionary, gapping below the low the a strong downtrend, it then signals that buyers were committed to recapture a majority of the price action. It also indicates that there may be trapped bears and short positions that were opened at the low, this can squeeze price higher. 2nd: Bullish Engulfing This occurred the week last week. It is a classic pattern that signals to turn bullish. It occurs when the green bar fully engulfs the previous weeks red bar. It signals that the price action was able to make a new low, this is important as similar to the piercing pattern it indicates there may be trapped bears/shorts who will be squeezed and forced to capitulate. It also indicates that the bulls were able to make new highs breaking out of the previous weeks range. 3rd: 3 Outside and up This just occurred to end this week. It is a rare follow-up to the bullish engulfing, it is defined by a bullish engulfing that has a following week with a close strongly above the engulfing candles high. It signals that the engulfing candle had commitment and follow-through, it signals that bears were unable to stop the trend and are at the point of capitulation. Many bullish engulfing patterns can lead to consolidation or weekly doji candles, or the less frequent reversals if bears are strong. the 3 Outside and up confirms that the bullish movement is strong. This was a very difficult month to trade with a ton of traps, I expect there will be more traps and pullbacks to come, but the big picture is bullish.
AMEX:SPYLong
by MikeSpy
2
SPY: Bear Market Rally Near Completion?Wavervanir DSS | April 30, 2025 SPY is approaching a critical reversal zone at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (~$563.33), following a sharp bounce from the March lows at $481.80. Price is now testing overhead supply from a prior breakdown, and a rejection here aligns with both technical exhaustion and deteriorating macro conditions. 🔍 Technical Breakdown Resistance Zone: $563.33 (Fib 0.786) – Strong potential reversal point. Bearish Targets: $500 (Fib 0.786 from Jan–Mar leg) $481.80 (prior low) $431.45 (Fib 1.382 extension) Structure: ABC corrective wave likely playing out with lower highs forming. Volume: Momentum on the rally is weakening—bearish divergence setting in. 🧠 Macro Alignment Sticky Inflation and high real yields persist. Fed expected to hold rates steady in May (no pivot). Earnings and forward guidance remain mixed, with cracks showing in consumer credit and regional banks. Soft landing narrative is fading unless CPI or labor data surprises to the downside. 📊 Probability Estimate Bearish Reversal (to $431.45): 65% Bullish Continuation (to $598.51): 25% Sideways Chop (532–563 range): 10% ⏳ Watch for confirmation below $547 to validate the reversal. 📉 If 563 holds, downside may accelerate into summer. 🧠 WaverVanir DSS remains net short while volatility remains structurally elevated. 💬 What’s your play? Bull trap or breakout? #SPY #S&P500 #TechnicalAnalysis #Macro #TradingView #Fibonacci #BearMarket #RecessionRisk
AMEX:SPYShort
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
4
Opening (IRA): SPY July 18th 495 Short Put... for a 5.13 credit. Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Max Profit: 5.13 ROC at Max as a Function of Strike Price: 1.04% Will generally look to roll up if the short put is in profit at 45 DTE or greater, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on at the June 513's and July 495's, and/or consider a "window dressing" roll (i.e., a roll down to a strike that is paying about the same in credit) to milk the last drops out of the position.
AMEX:SPYLong
by NaughtyPines
4
SPY - support & resistant areas for today May 2 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, May 2nd, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below. Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these. White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them. Silver Lines: An Area where price action could happen and do work on a choppy day.
AMEX:SPY
by OnePunchMan91
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : Behind The Scenes ResearchI want to say thank you to all of you and to share with you all the work/resources/servers/and other data I maintain to help me identify where and how the markets will present opportunities to all of us. This video shows you a bit of the behind-the-scenes work I do and some of my proprietary modeling systems. I'm not sharing this with you to try to win you over or to tell you I do more than anyone else in terms of research. I'm sure there are many others who go much further than I do in terms of trying to dissect the markets and the opportunities available. But I do believe I deliver very unique research, which is a one-of-a-kind solution for traders. Again, I'm not 100% accurate (I wish I were). But I am trying to share some of the decision-making solutions I use to understand where the markets are likely to move over the next 2- 4+ months and how traders can profit from my research. Remember, you are only seeing about 10% of my total research, tools, modeling systems, and capabilities in these Plan Your Trade videos. I want to thank all of you who continue to value my work. It is not easy. It takes money, time, and resources to continue to monitor all of these systems/algos. The end result, I believe, is one of the most unique future/current modeling system resources you can find anywhere. Again, thank you for making my research a success. I promise to do more and improve my tools over the next 12+ months for everyone to find better profits. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
2
Elliott Wave top on SPY’s monthly chartTechnical Analysis: Wave Structure (Elliott Wave) • Wave 1–2: Early 2020 correction (COVID crash) marked a clear wave 2 bottom. • Wave 3: Strong impulsive rally from mid-2020 to late 2021 — massive liquidity-driven. • Wave 4: 2022–2023 pullback — clean retracement to ~0.382 Fib, validating wave structure. • Wave 5: Parabolic final rally peaking around $550–560 (currently topping or topping out). Bearish Signals: • Volume divergence — Price up, but monthly volume flat-to-declining. Distribution behavior. • Completed 5-wave structure — Indicates exhaustion. • (A)-(B)-(C) Correction Starting: The projection shows: • Wave A targeting ~$420–440. • Wave B dead cat bounce. • Wave C projecting a deeper correction into $300–340 zone (around 0.5 to 0.618 retracement). Fibonacci Confluence Zones: • 0.382 = ~$450 • 0.5 = ~$390 • 0.618 = ~$340 These zones will act as major liquidity pools for institutional entries or macro rebalancing. Macro Headwinds Fuel the Narrative: • Sticky inflation • Rising interest payments on U.S. debt • Deteriorating liquidity (QT regime) • Over-leveraged consumer and commercial debt sectors
AMEX:SPYShort
by graphsandcoffee