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AUN2025 trade ideas

The Gold-Silver Ratio ExplainedCOMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ), Micro Silver Futures ( COMEX_MINI:SIL1! ) The Gold-Silver Ratio is a financial term that measures the relative value of gold to silver. Specifically, how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Gold-Silver Ratio is an important tool for traders and investors. It has been used to indicate the market sentiment towards these two precious metals. A high ratio suggests that gold is more valued than silver, often seen during economic turmoil or when investors seek safe-haven assets. On the contrary, a lower ratio implies that silver is gaining value relative to gold, which normally occurs during periods of economic growth and strong industrial demand. The ratio fluctuates over time due to supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and changes in the global economy. By analyzing the ratio, traders can make informed decisions about when to buy or sell. This ratio reflects not only the market’s valuation of these metals but also an instrument for profit-making in the commodities market. Historical Gold to Silver Ratio Since 2000, the Gold-Silver Ratio has seen considerable fluctuations, reflecting various economic and market conditions. In the first decade of the 21st century, the ratio hovered around 65:1, meaning it took 65 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. However, the ratio has spiked during times of economic uncertainty. For example, during the financial crisis of 2008, the ratio reached highs not seen in decades. More recently, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing economic turmoil, the ratio surged, at one point exceeding 110:1 in 2020, indicating a strong preference for gold as a safe-haven asset compared to silver. Over time, the Gold-Silver Ratio has been trending up, meaning gold has gained value at a faster pace compared to silver. As of last Friday, gold is trading around all-time high at $3,330, while silver is quoted at $33.0. This makes the Gold-Silver Ratio almost exactly at 100. When to Buy and Sell based on the Gold-Silver Ratio? The decision to buy or sell the ratio hinges on interpreting its current value in the context of historical trends and market conditions. When to Buy Silver: A high Gold-Silver Ratio, typically at or above the 90:1 mark, suggests that silver is undervalued relative to gold. This is often interpreted as a buying signal for silver. In such scenarios, silver is cheaper than gold, and investors may see it as an opportunity to purchase silver at a relatively low price. The rationale is that if the ratio decreases, the relative value of silver will increase compared to gold, potentially leading to significant gains. When to Sell Silver/Buy Gold: Conversely, when the Gold-Silver Ratio is low, say around 50:1, it indicates that silver is relatively expensive, or gold is undervalued. In such situations, investors might consider selling silver and buying gold. The expectation is that the ratio will normalize or increase, meaning that gold’s value could rise relative to silver, offering a favorable return on the gold investment. The Gold-Silver Ratio can be a valuable indicator of when to buy or sell gold and silver. However, since the ratio is not stable but upward trending over time, we could not use a mean-reversion strategy. The price band for normal, high and low ranges should be updated regularly. Trade Setup with Micro Gold and Silver Traders could deploy the Gold-Silver Ratio trading strategy using COMEX Micro Gold Futures ( AMEX:MGC ) and Micro Silver Futures ( AMEX:SIL ). The big advantages of using futures contracts are capital efficiency and leverage. MGC contracts have a notional value of 10 troy ounces of gold. With Friday settlement price of $3,330.7, each June contract (MGCM5) has a notional value of $33,307. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $1,500 at the time of writing. By putting a deposit equivalent to less than 0.5 ounce, traders could gain the full exposure to 10 ounces of gold. If gold prices move up by 5%, a long futures position would double in value (= (33307*0.05) / 1500 = 111%). This futures contract has a built-in leverage of 22:1. Conversely, Micro Silver (SIL) contracts have a notional value of 1,000 troy ounces of silver. With Friday settlement price of $33.02, each June contract (SILM5) has a notional value of $33,020. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $3,000 at the time of writing. By putting a deposit equivalent to 91 ounces, traders could gain the full exposure of 1,000 ounces of silver. If silver prices move up by 5%, a long position in Micro Silver futures would gain 55% (= (33020*0.05) / 3000). This futures contract has a built-in leverage of 11:1. Micro gold futures (MGC, 10 oz) contracts tap into the deep liquidity of standard-size gold futures contracts (GC, 100 oz). As of last Friday, GC has an open interest (OI) of 447,356 contracts, while the OI for MGC is 44,449, according to data from CME Group. The OI for standard Silver Futures (SI, 5000 oz) and Micro Silver Futures (SIL, 1000 oz) are 154,276 and 12,345, respectively. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Education
by JimHuangChicago
6
Gold-Silver Ratio: Silver’s Lag and Historical DivergencesThe gold-silver ratio - the number of silver ounces equals in value to one ounce of gold – has surged recently as gold prices rally while silver underperforms. Gold, a traditional safe-haven, has climbed to record highs amid economic uncertainty, whereas silver, which is partly an industrial commodity, has struggled to break past $35/oz. As a result, the ratio is around 100 – meaning gold is ~100 times the price of silver despite the correction in the ratio from its peak around 125. For context, the ratio averaged 57 from 1975-2000, and between 2000-2025 the ratio has ranged from 32 and 125 (with the max level reached this month with an average of 68. The ratio has observed extreme spikes in unusual crises). Today’s elevated ratio highlights the divergence between gold’s sharp rally and silver’s lagging performance. The 25-year mean of the ratio is at 68, suggesting the present levels (100) represent an extreme deviation in favour of gold. Historical Parallels in Gold-Silver Divergences Similar wide divergences between gold and silver have occurred in the past. Key historical episodes illustrate how silver eventually played “catch-up” after lagging gold – albeit with varying lag times: 1970s – Silver’s Late Surge: After the U.S. abandoned the gold standard, gold prices soared while silver lagged. However, silver eventually staged a sharp rally later in the decade, quickly closing the gap and driving the gold-silver ratio sharply lower. 1980s – Prolonged Underperformance: Following the 1980 peak, precious metals collapsed, with silver suffering far more than gold. The gold-silver ratio surged and remained elevated through the 1980s and 1990s, as silver failed to catch up and largely moved sideways until the 2000s. Early 2000s – Post-Recession Catch-Up: After the 2001 recession, gold began a new bull market while silver initially lagged. Eventually, silver outpaced gold’s gains over the next several years, significantly narrowing the gold-silver ratio. 2008 Financial Crisis – Sharp Divergence and Recovery: The 2008 crisis caused gold to outperform sharply as silver collapsed. However, as the economy recovered, silver staged a dramatic rebound, quickly closing the gap and normalizing the ratio by 2011. Why Is Silver Lagging Now? Industrial Demand Uncertainty Roughly half of silver demand is industrial (electronics, photovoltaics, chemicals). Persistent worries about a global manufacturing slowdown and elevated inventories have capped silver’s upside just as investors have chased gold for geopolitical protection. Source: Silver Institute Worries about industrial demand have been exacerbated by the recent trade uncertainties which impact industrial sectors in an outsized manner. By contrast, gold’s appeal as a safe haven has been boosted by geopolitical and inflation fears, driving it to record highs in 2025. Despite cyclical swings, the underlying secular trend has crept higher for decades. Gold’s monetisation (central-bank reserves, ETF holdings surge) versus silver’s demonetisation, higher real production costs for gold, and silver’s growing industrial elasticity are all factors that represent a risk to normalization of the GSR. Even a forceful mean-reversion might therefore stall nearer 60–70 than the sub-40 extremes of earlier cycles. Hypothetical Trade Setups History shows that once macroeconomic uncertainty clears, silver often recovers lost ground quickly. In previous periods of extreme gold-silver divergence, from the 1970s through 2008, silver staged strong rallies that pushed the gold-silver ratio (GSR) back toward normal levels. Today, however, silver’s outlook remains clouded by uncertainty, particularly amid the ongoing trade war. Prices risk stalling below resistance around $35/oz. Consequently, the normalization in the GSR may instead result from a correction in gold prices. Gold has consistently broken record highs, and its long-term outlook remains firmly bullish. Nevertheless, concerns about the sustainability of the recent rally are valid - last week, gold fell sharply after setting a new high above $3,500/oz. In summary, a normalization in the GSR could result from either a silver rally or a gold correction. While each path remains uncertain, a position focused on the ratio itself is relatively insulated from further divergence. Given this environment, we could express our view in GSR through a long position in silver and a short position in gold. Investors can implement this using CME Micro Silver and Micro Gold futures. This setup benefits from 72% margin offsets. The Micro contracts balance the notional value between both legs by using one contract each. A hypothetical trade setup consisting of a short position in CME Micro Gold futures expiring in June (MGCM2025) and a short position in CME Micro Silver futures expiring in June (SILM2025), offering a reward to risk ratio of 1.6x, is described below. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by mintdotfinance
2
GC (gold) UpdateSo I managed to dump my GLD holdings Tues premarket (left a comment on one of my posts Tuesday morning) because I realized that gold was doing a three drive pattern, got a pump at the end which started to sell off premarket. Not to mention, it had hit the target I posted with the big green arrow. Also, we have confirmation that my 3 hr indicator does work on GC, it bounced when MFI hit my red line. Did not play it, and it's a pretty weak bounce. GC isn't behaving the same as it did on its way up, I think there are bagholders that bought on the way down that are selling now on the way up. Every pump pump just gets sold off, there were some pumpers afterhours today, but that pump sold off and looks to me like it wants to go red tonight. Going to wait until I see a big move before I play this again. I think the only reason why it's a little green tonight is because they're pumping commodities, and gold is a commodity. The Euros might sell it off though, seems like they are always the sellers, guessing the gold algos are mainly run by them. I don't plan on shorting but if you do, the time to do it is when MFI hits overbought.
COMEX:GC1!
by hungry_hippo
4
Gold Futures – Short-Term Technical Outlook as of April 23Gold surged to nearly $3,500, but multiple indicators now point to a potential top. A short-term correction or consolidation phase appears likely before any new highs. Bearish Signals Across the Board: RSI Divergence: RSI failed to confirm recent highs, showing bearish divergence. Momentum Fading: MACD & momentum oscillators rolled over → rally exhaustion. Volume Shift: Rising on down moves, drying up on rallies → classic distribution. Bearish Candlesticks: Spinning tops + bearish engulfing patterns signal reversal risk. Elliott Wave: Likely completed 5-wave impulse → next up: ABC correction? Cycles: April top aligns with intermediate cycle peak → watch May for cycle low. Seasonality: Historically weak May–June period approaching. COT Data: Speculators still long, but commercials heavily short → caution warranted. 🎯 Trade Setups Short-Term (1–5 Days) 🎯 Short Entry: ~$3,400 📉 Target: $3,270 → $3,215 🛑 Stop: Above $3,460 Medium-Term (1–4 Weeks) 📉 Short below $3,215 → Target $2,970 ✅ Or go long on confirmed bounce at $3,150–$3,180 Long-Term (1–6 Months) 🟢 Bullish bias after correction completes 🛒 Buy zones: $2,960–$2,720 🎯 Targets: $3,540 → $3,900+ ⛔ Stop: Below $2,700 🧭 Outlook Summary: Bias: Cautiously Bearish (short-term) → Bullish (long-term) Gold likely topped in April — expect weakness or sideways action before the next major leg higher. Be patient for a better buying opportunity later this spring/summer.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by AZ-Technical
1
Agree to disagree... Gold is topping right now.My price path seen above is a complete guess but it stems from long term trend lines and more importantly order flow from last week. On Thursday there was a #1 trade on AMEX:PHYS for $200+ Million at the green levels in my chart above (Equivalent levels). PRICE WILL 100% go to my green lines by end of this week 04/25. We are over shooting the dark pool sale but a lot, however, this is always to trap retail and create fomo/peak fear. In the correction/recession cycles, gold ALWAYS TOPS LAST before the crash...
COMEX:GC1!Short
by LeapTrades
7
Gold Tesla4.28.25 In this video I talk about gold and Tesla. at the end of the video I suggested that there are times when the market isn't doing quite what your rules are but you have a feeling that the market is going to move in your favor... and in your opinion it's worth the risk even though you would not entirely be following your rules. the simple response would be that you're not following your roles at your decision is impulsive and that you shouldn't take that trade... but you believe that even if your trade breaks your rules you believe there's something in the pattern that tells you it's worth the risk you're willing to take. I'll tell you right now I did not upload this video until that bar completed... and I would have been stopped out of that trade because I would have gone short and the market went higher for a bit... but I realized something that I know about and I want to talk about that on a future video. to be clear I think the market is still going to go lower even though it would have taken out my short trade.... I'll talk about this tomorrow or the next day.... and by that time we'll see if the market really did go lower.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by ScottBogatin
Gold | Short Bias | Liquidity Sweep Potential | (April 2025)Gold (XAUUSD) | Short Bias | Liquidity Sweep Potential + Structure Watch | (April 27, 2025) 1️⃣ Insight Summary: Gold is at a critical level where multiple scenarios could unfold. Money flow and structure suggest a higher probability for lower prices, but a move higher toward $3,477 remains possible too. 2️⃣ Trade Parameters: Bias: Short Entry Zone: Watching for liquidity sweep around $3,225 Stop Loss: Above recent structure highs if the sweep setup fails TP1: Partial profit near $3,225 (liquidity grab area) TP2: Further downside depending on momentum and structure after the sweep 3️⃣ Key Notes: ✅ Money flow is exiting, and market structure leans toward lower prices for now. ✅ Heavy liquidity is resting around $3,225 — a sweep could trigger key reactions and partial exits. ✅ Still some possibility that Gold pushes higher toward $3,477 if market sentiment flips short-term bullish. ✅ Structure is not completely clean yet — waiting for a clearer setup before going heavy. ✅ Watch S&P 500 closely: a short-term correction there could help Gold move higher temporarily as a non-correlated asset. ❌ Risk if Gold breaks higher before sweeping $3,225, invalidating the current short-biased setup. 4️⃣ Follow-up: I will continue monitoring Gold’s structure closely and will update the idea if we get a clean sweep or confirmation for the next move. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by Risk_Adj_Return
The Brightest Metal Right NowGold isn’t just shining, it’s on fire, burning through resistance levels as investors seek shelter from global chaos. Figure 1: Gold Prices Climbing to New Highs Gold surged past $3,000 per ounce this March, setting 16 record highs this year alone. While it took more than a decade for gold to gain 1,000 points previously, this time it took less than two years. Figure 2: Correction in the Equities and Cryptocurrencies In stark contrast, the S&P 500 has dropped 10% since its February peak, marking its first correction since 2023. Bitcoin has also plunged to $81,000, a 25% decline since U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration. The AI-driven momentum that propelled tech stocks and the broader equity market higher in 2024 appears to have faded. Figure 3: Historical Reactions to Crisis The correction in equities and crypto stands in sharp contrast to gold’s rally—an outcome that should come as no surprise given gold’s reputation as a safe-haven asset. Historically, financial crises and major market pullbacks have consistently triggered capital flows into gold as investors seek refuge from economic uncertainty. This time, gold’s outperformance is driven by a “perfect storm” of prolonged geopolitical tensions, escalating trade disputes, political uncertainty under Trump’s second term, and a weakening U.S. dollar. The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index, a widely used measure of market sentiment, has remained in the “fear” and “extreme fear” zones. This stems largely from Trump’s protectionist policies, which have sparked swift retaliation from U.S. trading partners. With new tariff headlines surfacing almost daily, the future of economic policy and inflation has become increasingly uncertain, injecting heightened volatility into global markets. This has, in turn, strengthened gold’s appeal as a hedge against instability. Figure 4: Gold’s Demand is not Limited to Investors According to the World Gold Council, investment demand for gold doubled year-over-year in 2024. However, central banks have been the real drivers of demand, purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years; accounting for 21% of global demand in 2024. The rising U.S. budget deficit and Trump’s "America First" policies have created additional risks for central banks holding large reserves of U.S. Treasuries. The ongoing tariff war not only undermines confidence in the U.S. as a reliable trade partner but also raises concerns about the U.S. dollar’s long-term stability as a safe-haven asset. This has accelerated the de-dollarization process, prompting many central banks to stockpile gold as a hedge against dollar exposure. Unlike investors who may hesitate to buy gold at record highs, central banks operate based on mandates, making them less price-sensitive. They are willing to continue accumulating gold at elevated levels, reinforcing sustained demand for the precious metal. Figure 5: A Weakening Dollar Since most gold futures contracts are denominated in U.S. dollars, a weaker dollar makes gold relatively cheaper for non-U.S. buyers, supporting its price. This negative correlation between the two assets has been a key driver of gold’s recent surge. The Trump administration has long argued that the U.S. dollar’s global dominance has kept it too strong for too long, hurting American manufacturers and contributing to deindustrialization. Further, a strong dollar reduces the price competitiveness of U.S. exports and has widened the trade deficit, leading the administration to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. While the Fed maintains its independence and data-driven approach, inflation trends continue to justify further easing. The market has already priced in three quarter-point rate cuts for this year, with expectations that the first cut could come as early as June. Gaining Access to Gold Historically, the London over-the-counter (OTC) market, operated by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), has been the largest gold trading center. Traders use the LBMA gold price as the global benchmark for gold transactions, including central bank purchases. On the other hand, the futures market is the preferred choice for hedge funds, bullion dealers, refineries, and mints to hedge against price fluctuations. Retail investors also typically gain exposure to gold through futures contracts, most commonly via the COMEX gold futures market. However, executing arbitrage strategies between the OTC and futures markets is capital-intensive and logistically challenging. Traditional arbitrage requires buying physical gold in the LBMA market at a lower price while simultaneously selling COMEX futures at a higher price. This involves storing, insuring, and shipping gold to COMEX-approved vaults, making it difficult to determine the fair value of the spread. Figure 6: B3 Gold Futures Contract A more accessible alternative is emerging: Brazil’s B3 Exchange will soon list a new gold futures contract referencing the LBMA gold price. This new contract offers several advantages: Easier arbitrage execution: Traders can capitalize on price discrepancies between the B3 contract and COMEX futures. Lower capital requirements: The contract size is just one troy ounce, 1/100th of the standard COMEX contract, allowing for greater flexibility in position sizing and risk management. Financial settlement: Both the B3 and COMEX one-ounce contracts are cash-settled, eliminating the logistical challenges of physical delivery. Putting into Practice Case Study 1: Arbitrage Strategy Figure 7: Current Available Gold Futures A comparison of the existing gold futures contracts highlights key differences in specifications, including fineness, contract size, and settlement methods. While these variations cater to the diverse needs of hedgers managing different gold inventories, they pose challenges for traders looking to establish arbitrage strategies due to mismatches in contract structures. The introduction of B3’s new gold futures contract addresses these limitations by aligning closely with the COMEX 1-ounce gold contract. This structural similarity simplifies the process of determining fair value in spread pricing, making arbitrage strategies more feasible. The primary distinction between the two lies in their price settlement methods, which, interestingly, also forms the basis of arbitrage opportunities between futures and spot prices. Additionally, traders can now take advantage of price discrepancies between the two LBMA daily fixing prices by utilizing the B3 Gold and TFEX Gold Online futures contracts. This expands the range of arbitrage opportunities and enhances market efficiency for gold traders. Case Study 2: Directional Strategy By considering all the factors – gold’s safe-haven appeal, geopolitical tensions, central banks accumulation, and a weakening dollar – we believe that this is not the end of the gold rally. An investor looking to express a bullish view on gold could do so by buying the B3 one-ounce futures contract, gaining exposure to gold’s price movements in a more accessible and cost-effective manner. Conclusion As global uncertainties mount, gold’s resilience remains undeniable. Whether as a hedge against inflation, a refuge from geopolitical turmoil, or a tool for strategic trading, gold continues to prove its value in times of crisis. With central banks stockpiling at record levels, the metal’s rally may still have room to run. For investors navigating today’s volatile landscape, gold is not just a safe-haven, it’s a strategic asset poised for continued strength. It is extremely timely to have new trading instruments like B3’s gold futures providing more accessible opportunities for investors. For traders looking to enhance liquidity and capitalize on bid-ask spread, B3 also offers a market-making program. Interested participants can reach out to the exchange for further details.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by inspirante
Gold Defies the Fed – The Clash for a New Monetary Order🪙 Gold Defies the Fed – The Clash for a New Monetary Order 📈 🏆 Gold Bulls Rejoice — The Chart Speaks Loud From $1,700 to over $3,200 — gold has defied every rule in the macro playbook. It rallied through rising rates, a strong dollar, and a supposed tightening cycle. This move isn't just about demand — it's a signal . 📉 Interest Rate Timeline: 2020–2025 Gold moved counter to monetary logic — here’s the full context: 2022 🔺 R: 0.25 ➝ 4.50 Start of aggressive rate hikes – CPI peaked at 9.1% 🔥 2023 ⚒️ R: 4.50 ➝ 5.50 Peak tightening – gold didn’t flinch 2024 ✂️ R: 5.50 ➝ 4.25 Mid-year rate cuts – inflation cooled to 2.4% ❄️ 2025 🔁 R: 4.25–4.50 Fed paused, Trump pushing for deeper cuts – tariffs complicate the easing path 🇨🇳 The China Factor – A Strategic Gold Game #1 producer AND importer Keeps all domestic production Estimated holdings: 13,000–17,000 tons Investing globally (Africa, Asia, LatAm) Possible BRICS-backed gold currency on the horizon? China isn't just hedging inflation — it's preparing for monetary evolution. 💱 CPI From Fire to Frost 2022: CPI at 9.1% 🔥 2025: 2.4% ❄️ — near the Fed’s 2% target Yet despite “normal” inflation, the Fed holds — a sign of deeper uncertainty. 🧭 The 4 Modes of Gold – Explained on Chart Trump Mode : Aggressive cuts → Gold targets $3,300–$3,600 Feds Mode : Status quo → Gold tests $3,000 China Mode : Strategic surge → Long-term $3,998+ Bitcoin Mode : Digital store of value rises → Gold reverts to $2,537 zone These are not just technical levels — they represent global monetary narratives. 🕰️ Will History Repeat Itself? In 1873, Germany adopted gold. China stayed on silver — and lost its monetary edge. Today, it’s not silver vs gold — it’s gold vs Bitcoin . China stockpiles gold U.S. institutions embrace Bitcoin Trade wars have become currency wars This isn't a normal market — this is the early stage of a global monetary shift . 🔮 Final Thoughts We stand at the crossroads of history . Gold has already chosen its path. Bitcoin is waiting in the wings. And fiat? Under pressure. Stay awake. Stay diversified. The next monetary standard may already be forming. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
COMEX:GC1!
by FX_Professor
8