GOLD longI see Gold increasing in price till 2416 then I'll be checking price action,I believe it will form a bearing butterfly, however if Gold doesn't break the 2392 then it could form a bearish bat...
AU1! trade ideas
WHATS FLOWING?!: STOCKS | GOLD* | OIL | 2's&10'sTop of the Market Action
As we settle into the trading day, here’s what’s making waves in the market:
Technology Sector: The tech giants are in focus today, with mixed performance across the board. While Apple and Microsoft are facing some pressure, the broader tech sector could benefit from the recent drop in interest rates. Lower borrowing costs and a more favorable environment for growth could provide some relief to these high-valuation companies.
Energy Sector: The energy sector remains under pressure as oil prices continue to decline. Major players like ExxonMobil and Chevron are seeing downward movement, reflecting concerns about global supply and weakening demand.
Financial Sector: Financial stocks are reacting to the news of lowering interest rates, with major banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America experiencing slight declines. While lower rates can ease borrowing costs, they also compress profit margins on loans, which could weigh on bank earnings.Concerns About Further Drawdowns in the Stock Market.
Concerns About Further Drawdowns in the Stock Market
The recent lowering of interest rates in the U.S. has brought mixed reactions from the market:
Impact of Lower Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it supports economic growth by making borrowing cheaper, which is positive for sectors like housing and technology. On the other hand, it raises concerns about the underlying reasons for the cut—specifically, fears of an economic slowdown.
Economic Weakness: The decision to lower rates often signals concerns about economic growth. Recent indicators such as weaker job growth and declining consumer spending are fueling fears that the U.S. economy may be heading toward a downturn, leading to potential market drawdowns.
Corporate Earnings Uncertainty: With earnings season underway, the impact of lower interest rates on corporate profits is still uncertain. While lower rates can reduce borrowing costs for companies, they might also indicate a weaker economic environment, which could hurt overall earnings.
2024-08-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - Huge bull breakout on low volume. Bulls went above 2500 with ease and next target is a higher high again above 2522. As of now it’s still a triangle and if bears appear tomorrow, odds favor a trade back down. You can’t get bullish above 2500 other than scalps.
comment: Clear breakout above the previous channel and a decent channel upwards. Market could not close below the 15m 20ema since bar 23. On the daily chart we are near the upper resistance of the triangle and if bears come around tomorrow, r:r clearly favors them to trade back below 2450 again.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2400 - 2536
bull case: Bulls did not meet much resistance by the bears today and we had a bull trend day on low volume. I take those with caution. Bulls next target is a higher high above 2522 and then a retest of the ath at 2536. If they can manage 2522, the ath could fall probably without much resistance and if we see a volume increase, we could potentially go much higher but that’s very low probability, given that 2500 was rejected so many times now on the weekly/monthly chart.
Invalidation is below 2490.
bear case: Bears stepped aside enough today but need to build much stronger selling pressure now to keep this also a lower high and stay inside the triangle. Will be interesting tomorrow. I do think odds favor them to trade back down but market will probably need either sideways movement above 2500 or a very strong sell signal like the last 2 sell offs above 2500. Bears first target is a close below the 15m 20ema and then trading below the 1h 20ema. Then they can start breaking bull trend lines. I do think much is dependent on the ppi print tomorrow and how most traders interpret it.
Invalidation is above 2522.
short term: Neutral above 2500. No interest in buying this at the highs. Only a very strong break above 2536 could change that. Waiting for bears to come around and if they can reverse this.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the double bottom bar 21 + 18 or long since bar 22 or 23. Double bottom was almost perfect and had 5 consecutive 1h bull bars following it.
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Bears got follow through but bulls still kept it a higher lower. Best for bears would be to keep it below 2480 or we might as well go to 2510 again. Big triangle on the daily chart and currently exactly at the midpoint of it. Does not get more neutral than this.
Quote from last week:
comment: Clear rejection above 2500 again but the bear bar from Friday has a big tail below, because bulls bought the daily 20ema. It’s mid’ish of the triangle so the worst place to trade. I do think it’s more reasonable to expect more downside than a break above the ath but I won’t take my chances. I wait for market to show me. Both sides have reasonable arguments to retest the highs again or finally giving up on 2500. Volume saw a huge increase again, which could mean that we are coming to an end of this range between 2300 and 2500, over the next weeks to months.
comment : Easy analysis. We are 4 points above last weeks close. We are in a triangle and exactly at the midpoint, again. Market is as neutral as it gets. Don’t make this more complicated than it needs to be. Either buy low and sell high inside given range or wait for a breakout.
current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months —unchanged
key levels: 2400 - 2520
bull case : Bulls bought the dip again and kept it at higher lows. Odds favor a test of 2500 or 2510. It would be very strong by the bulls if they could get above 2522 again. Not more to it currently.
Invalidation is below 2400.
bear case: Market is neutral around 2470. Bears gave up on Thursday since they only made a higher low and could not get a daily close below 2430. I don’t think many bears want to fight this until we get above 2500 again. If they do, probably not due to technical reasons (by technical I always mean TA - technical analysis)
Invalidation is above 2522.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral 2450 - 2490. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2469 and now we are at 2473. Perfect outlook.
short term: Neutral around 2475. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below. Want to see 2500 to look for shorts again.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
SPY/QQQ/GOLD Plan Your Trade - New Week Aug 12~16+Thank you for all the boosts and likes. I'm trying my best to deliver informative and intelligent information for traders to learn to make their own decisions.
My goal is to teach you the skills to become better at identifying and selecting better opportunities for profits. Not to be right all the time - that's impossible.
But, to learn to manage risk levels, trade more efficiently, plan your trades, and to execute better trades with detailed information and guidance.
I hope I'm achieving those goals for all of you.
Some of the comments have been wonderfully supportive. Of course I'm not right 100% of the time - no one is. I'm simply trying to provide the best analysis I can to help you plan and prepare for better trades.
This video discusses what I expect from the markets over the next 5~10+ days.
I believe the markets need to retest support before shifting into the new Vortex Rally phase.
We need to watch Gold/Silver, the Transportation Index, Crude Oil, the US-Dollar, and how the SPY/QQQ react over the next 5+ days.
It will be interesting to see how things play out.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
2024-08-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Not much to add after what I wrote in the tl;dr section. So see below.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2400 - 2500
bull case: Bulls have many patterns going for them right now. Biggest is the triangle on the daily chart which held and odds favor the bulls to retest up to 2510ish. I’d be surprised if we get there but that’s only my personal bias talking. Bulls closed above all ema and above the current trading range. They have all the arguments to trade higher yet the 1h chart today looks pretty weak to me, despite the 1.3% gain. Alternating bull/bear bars on the 1h chart do not scream bullish market. Whenever market is giving mixed signals, I just do not trade it. It’s just not worth my energy.
Invalidation is below 2450.
bear case: Bears kept the market two sided but it still went up 46 points. Bears see this as a marginally higher high to Tuesday and want to reverse from here. They need to keep it below 2475 or bulls will probably buy the momentum for 2500. Bears do not have that many arguments since bulls closed above all ema and reversed from the bull trend line on the daily chart.
Invalidation is above 2475.
short term: Neutral around 2465, bullish above 2475 for 2500 and bearish below 2450.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500
current swing trade: none
trade of the day: Same argument for not taking the long as in dax. Buying high in a trading range is a bad buy and market went only 6 points higher than Tuesday. Long since Globex open would have been perfect, as it was a perfect double bottom with Wednesday but not my timezone.
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE SHORT from DAILY SWING EQ Level...?COMEX:GC1!
“Without education, you’re not going anywhere in this world.” -MalcomX
Beautiful PA on the Daily & 4Hr TF on GC... I'll wait patiently for the break underneath 50% EQ on the 1Hr TF n Below. Then I'll drop down to the LTF 15-5m TF and look to enter SHORT and target the bottom side of the 4HR Demand zone... Lets stay focused!!
1) I'll keep close update as PA develops and we have more data to work with.
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently. Let's Keep Steppn!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
GOLD Plan Your Trade For 8-7 : Huge Dual-Leg Rally Setup $2550+Gold is setting up a unique dual-leg rally phase, and traders need to be aware of this before the move is complete.
The recent panic setoff by the BOJ unsettled the markets - including Gold.
The Yen Carry-trade unwound over the past 5+ days - resulting in a very consolidated downward price trend in Gold.
I believe Gold is about to make two very big moves to the upside.
The first move will be quick. Probably lasting only 2 or 3 days.
The second move may be a bit longer, but it has the ability to rally well above $2550 as Gold reverts higher.
Please pay attention to this video if you follow Gold. Gold as a hedge is one thing. This move is related to the reversion pressure and the protection of currency devaluation after the past 3+ weeks of global decoupling.
I believe this next rally in gold will be explosive (min upside target $2550 or higher).
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Gold bulls returning after 4 down daysGold prices look set to bounce over the near-term after they closed lower for a fourth consecutive day. Monday's aggressive selloff held above $2400, and a late recovery saw half of the day's losses handed back - to close the day with a lower wick. Tuesday's range held above Monday's low and mostly traded within Monday's lower wick, which suggest liquidity gaps are being filled and support is beginning to build.
The 1-hour chart shows that a bullish divergence formed with RSI (14), and a series of lower wicks further shows a loss of bearish momentum. Prices are now testing trend resistance, a break above which brings the 2460 highs and high-volume node (HVN) into focus around 2473.
Gold Futures: Measured Move Target $2,650.
#Gold futures just had a 50% retracement from the June lows.
Notice the big volume recently without much further downside; an indicative clue that buyers are getting aggressive.
A series of higher highs and higher lows allows the technician to easily plot a Fibonacci measured move.
8.6.2024 Gold Entry & Trade 120% Reasons To Take It ShortThis is the Gold trade we took this morning after 8am EST.
It had a perfect entry setup. Gave 120% reasons to take the trade and we only need 100%. So we were very very confident in taking this trade.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 8-5 - CAUTION: Extreme VolatilityThis video highlights why I believe skilled traders are taking minimal, targeted trades in the current market environment.
With the current market volatility as crazy as it is, I don't believe anyone should be swinging for the fences.
If you learn anything from my videos over the past few weeks - know this.
The #1 rule for trading is to protect capital (at all times).
You can be right or wrong while trading. But you have to learn to live to trade another day.
This crazy market volatility could have made a small fortune for some people but destroyed others.
Until we see the SPY move up above $535-$540, there is still a big risk the markets could fall further.
Watch this video to learn more.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
gold mcx or spot update blwgold spot eye on 2417 if stya blw thna nxt dwn side 2411--2406 in mcx stya blw 69500 stya blw dwn side looks 69356-320 or blw 69300 dwn side 69110-69003 expect --- gold now small hurdle 69799 abv only more fire other wise dwnnn
But Opportunity on GOLD Futures Hello,
We've identified a huge current opportunity to buy GOLD Futures with a high probability in the 4-hour chart.
The target is $2520 within a few Hours
Ibrouri
#202432 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears made another amazing trade selling above 2440 and since this was the third time, they are confident they can push the market lower to at least 2300 again. The selling was strong enough for a second leg and right now a measured move would bring us exactly to 2300. Coincidences huh. Every time someone tells you technical analysis does not work, just nod and make money. It’s not worth the discussion.
comment: Clear rejection above 2500 again but the bear bar from Friday has a big tail below, because bulls bought the daily 20ema. It’s mid’ish of the triangle so the worst place to trade. I do think it’s more reasonable to expect more downside than a break above the ath but I won’t take my chances. I wait for market to show me. Both sides have reasonable arguments to retest the highs again or finally giving up on 2500. Volume saw a huge increase again, which could mean that we are coming to an end of this range between 2300 and 2500, over the next weeks to months.
current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months
key levels: 2300 - 2536
bull case: Bulls showed weakness during the week before but somehow managed to turn the market around this week on bad looking daily bars. Unusual to say the least. I do think every time the patterns looks bad, it’s more due to the other side stepping aside than one being particularly strong. Anyhow, Market retested the ath again and printed a lower high 14 points lower. It’s the 5th time the bulls tried and failed. Do they get more or will they give up now? I don’t know. I thought the drop that started 2 weeks ago from the ath was decent enough to bring us to 2300 again but they failed at a higher low. So we are in a triangle and in the middle of it. Market is neutral between 2450 - 2490.
Invalidation is below 2290.
bear case: Not much to add because market is neutral. Bears need follow through on Monday to test the bull trend line below at around 2425. There is not much more to read out of this at the moment. Things change when bulls get a strong close above 2536 or bears print lower lows below 2390 again.
Invalidation is above 2536.
outlook last week:
short term: Full bear mode continues as long as the bear channel holds. Look for shorts near the top and take profits at new lows.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2381 and now we are at 2469. The bear channel broke on Tuesday and my invalidation was on point but my outlook was not. Always know your risk and start every trade from a risk point of view and now from a profit point of view. You will most likely never hit 90% winners consistently so get used to losers and don’t let them influence you in a bad way.
short term: Neutral 2450 - 2490. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed bearish pattern and added the triangle we are in
Gold Weekend Pre MarketIt's the weekend. I like to go out to my larger charts and clean off the entire chart and start analyzing the instrument for next weeks trading.
We know that price is going to move up or down from where it currently is located, so we just need to make up a game plan to trade it..
Looking out at the 4 hour, 1 hour, and 15 minute charts for our trend and target analysis. Then dialing it down to the 3 minute or 15 minute to look for an entry!
$Gold [Intraday]New gold breakout! bearish.
(*During the time I was publishing this idea the breakout already took place).
Can the HOUSE Capitalize SHORT from 78.5-88.6% Daily Fib levels?COMEX:GC1!
“The highest human act is to inspire.” - Nip Hussle Tha Great
Family as we get ready for this new week, I must say this month has been a gr8t one. We accomplished so many goals and now it's time to get back focused on the task in front of us. I have developed here an idea to possibly go SHORT & in this video I went into gr8t detail supporting my original statement/idea....
1) I want to see the Mitigation of the 4Hr Supply zone and possibly the deeper 1Hr TF Supply Zone inside which lines up perfectly with 88.6% Daily Fib Level ($2423.0). If we can get buyers to push price to these levels then I'll drop down to the LTF 15m and wait for a confirmed 15m CHoCh to Scale SHORT. Let's stay focused and see what happens in pricing....
2) I'll keep close update as PA develops and we have more data to work with.
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently. Let's Keep Steppn!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
Can the HOUSE Capitalize SHORT from 78.5-88.6% Daily Fib levels?COMEX:GC1!
“The highest human act is to inspire.” - Nip Hussle Tha Great
Family as we get ready for this new week, I must say this month has been a gr8t one. We accomplished so many goals and now it's time to get back focused on the task in front of us. I have developed here an idea to possibly go SHORT & in this video I went into gr8t detail supporting my original statement/idea....
1) On the Daily TF I have drawn out the PIVOT ZONE that price has traded back into currently. Also I have drawn the Daily Last Swing LOW & HIGH and the Daily Swing EQ level that price is currently trading around ($2396.5)...
2) On the 4Hr TF we Have a Huge Indecision candle that needs to be mitigated in which lines up perfectly with the Daily 78.5-88.6% Fib levels. These are the Key Levels that I want to see price hit....
3) If and when price can Mitigate the 4Hr Supply I want to see buyers push price higher into the 1Hr Supply zone pricing ($2423.0) just above the Killzone 78.5% Fib Level and into the 88.6% Level.... This is the Key level I will wait for price to mitigate, then I will drop down to the LTF 15m and wait for a confirmed 15m CHoCh (Change of Character) and look to scale SHORT!!!
4) I'll keep close update as PA develops and we have more data to work with.
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently. Let's Keep Steppn!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
Gold until Diwali analysis.As we test for golds seasonality, manipulation and distribution we can assume this would be the best possible analysis for the quarter.
This is just an analysis, not an investment idea.
Educational purposes only.
GOLD Plan Your Trade 7-31 - Gold Reaches Upper Flag ChannelPrepare for Gold to move into a consolidation phase lasting 5 to 10 days before moving higher again.
The next upper target area is $2560++.
Watch this video and consider what I see as a structural Flag formation.
Gold will continue to attempt to move higher - but it will do so in structural price waves.
If you are holding any open long positions, be prepared to protect those positions as I see Gold flagging sideways (attempting to contract downward) in about 2~3 days.
The current upward price move appears to be over.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Gold Futures has taken support of near 50Weeks EMA (Mother line)Gold Futures has taken support of near 50 Weeks EMA (Mother line) which is near 66402. This dip was due to change in customs duty of Gold while thinking rationally. Thus the zone between 67400 and 66402 presents a strong support zone. Mid channel support for gold Futures in case the Mother line is broken remains at mid channel support near 64030. It does not seem likely that we will get a closing below this point but in case we get a closing below 64030 bears will become very empowered and in very unlikely situation Gold futures can fall to 61092. The zone between 56493 and 55091 is a mega support as 55901 is a 200 Week's EMA or Father line. Below this zone in extremely unlikely situation Gold Futures can further find a bottom near channel bottom which is near 53064.
Resistances for Gold Futures are near the zone between 69678 and 71222. Further resistance zone is between 73257 and 74881. If the channel top near 75K is broken the Gold Futures in the very long term can hit anywhere between 82K to 88K.
In my opinion which has a strong bias towards Gold as world is seeing a lot of conflicts and uncertainties due to internal and external geo-political instability, Gold remains an investment option which is accumulate on every dip. Gold actual price and Gold futures price and Price of Gold sold by Jewellers can vary a little bit so please take that into consideration too. The chart here represents Gold Futures movement.
To know more about Mother Father line and their significance and to learn Techno Funda analysis we recommend you read the book The Happy Candles Way. Which is available on Amazon on paperback version. Kindle version of the same book is also available on Amazon Kindle.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
2024-07-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Gold had a huge bull day and my line in the sand for bears was 2436. Market now broke above it 2 times and the buying into US close was strong enough for a second leg which could bring us above 2480 again. Still a trading range on the daily chart and anything above 2300 is good for the bulls. Probably another try at printing 2500 over the next days.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2300 - 2500
bull case: Bulls want a new ath and all the stops too close above it. 2500 would be a nice round number to reach. After that I don’t have anything for the bulls. It’s a trading range since April and such big trading ranges happen before the final flag and this one here is probably it. I would not bet on another strong bull trend above 2500.
Above was written last week and is valid as ever. Bulls do not want to drop below the 1h 20ema again or the chop continues. They want the momentum continuing and another strong break above 2460 for the second leg up.
Invalidation is below 2440.
bear case: Bears tried to keep it below 2440 but market made higher lows and on the strong buying at bar 13, they stepped aside enough to let the market rip into US close. I don’t think many bears want to battle between 2450 and 2480, so I expect this becoming a quick move up before they see value in shorting again. Below 2440 I am wrong and bears showing strength again.
Invalidation is above 2460.
short term: Bullish af again. Want to see a proper channel form, that we can grind to 2480 or 2500.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Tricky. Bar 10 was strong enough to expect more upside but the pullback afterwards on bar 11+12 was deep enough to trap many traders out. Bar 13 was the long to be in while it formed but tricky in any case.
