The major Exchange Traded DerivativesChina continues to privatize companies, open its markets to foreign investors, and develop relations around the future silk road.
In 1 month China is launching its international Copper future. It sounds interesting but I do not know if individual investors care enough for this future to be available with my broker, maybe IG will have it.
As the USA declines (and perhaps Europe), China might become the "hub" for commodity derivatives (thinking of industrial metals and agri),
if this is the case I expect retail traders and their brokers to catch up in only a decade or two (seriously).
For this occasion let's look at the most traded derivatives around the world.
1- Agriculture
*It is a non-profit, self-regulating and membership legal entity established on February 28, 1993 (when China opened itself to the free markets and emerged out of poverty). Non-profit because that's evil capitalism. Nothing is free though. So who pays? The average chinese factory worker? Haha!
Back in 2018 they started opening up to foreign investors (Iron Ore, a little after their Oil contract that was the first one ever open to foreigners), the exchange also has an english website:
www.chinadaily.com.cn
**The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) is China's first futures exchange,
Zhengzhou Airport Economy Zone is China's first Airport Economy Zone.
Zhengzhou is not a SPECIAL economic zone, it is only an economic zone.
Unsurprisingly China is not big on "financial" products (interest rates & equity index) but they are big on more basic things: Agriculture & Mining.
2- Energy
So ye Moscow, NYMEX (CME), and London ICE mostly.
3- Metals
4- Equity Index
How many contracts would you want? Yes.
India and Brazil are at the top of the list.
India is famous for its overvaluations and many gambling bagholders, and Brazil for its large numbers of gambling day traders.
Stocks and stock indexes (and ETFs) have by far the most individual investors, as those are supposed to be more noob friendly due to having a much lower skill floor.
Think of it (lol players) as Yasuo, Master Yi and Volibear mains. For HOMM the equivalent is 3 months afk farm Necro on a giant map.
They have been convinced that it was a positive sum game where everyone can make easy money.
There are 2 major categories of retail investors: bagholders & day gamblers. They both consistently lose.
Due to the power of compounding day gamblers lose money much faster than bagholders, which is why people advise individual investors to stick to bagholding.
Bagholding also gives people more time to think it through and quit with some of their money left, while day gamblers will have lost most of their money before the initial excitement has waned off.
5- FX
6- Rates
7- Other
No idea what all of this mess is.
For my part I only trade a couple of those: 3 grains, 2 metals (Gold Copper), Texas Oil & NatGas, all on the CME (7 total, with some correlations).
Sometimes I look at softs on the ICE and Nickel on the LME but I don't really touch them much.
Rarely will get into indices, I do follow where they are going from far away.
I actually am active in the smallest derivatives that make 7.4%, 5%, 4.9%, 1.6% and 1% while avoiding equities that make 50% :D
But I do Forex alot, got around 10 currencies in my watchlist. With correlations and everything I would say FX is about twice to thrice as big as commodities for me.
There is already plenty to do and plenty of good uncorrelated opportunities to go for. With on top of that the occasional Bitcoin or major indice or stock bet, I'd say that's about as far as someone can push it with just being coinflipping.
I know that professionals hold stocks for quarters or years, Forex for a few days or a few weeks, retail just day trades everything, and I do not know for indices and commodities and rates. But I know commodities sort of behave much more like FX than equities and open interest fluctuates similarly so I would say we are looking at weeks to month in my opinion, for professionals of course, retail just day trades everything they'd day trade overnight swaps and EOD indexes if they found a way.
There are alot of those futures. More than enough to have your hands full. Might have some bubbles in China in the future and if this is the case I'll be the first to know way before mainstreet gets all excited and rushes in at the top (and push it higher) as they often do.
In July 2019 ZCE Apples (bigger than CME Corn) gapped down by 40%. I am not ready for this. Unless they have some "fair and profit-free" options :D
I wouldn't mind getting some surprise 40% infinite gains with tiny limited losses. I guess they are not big on "evil profit driven too abstract for me to understand" speculation.
Haha so how are their behinds after that 40% gap with no speculator to absorb the risk? 😉
There HAS to be broken flaws to exploit in the future. Maybe when that happens they will rollback all trades "for fairness" silly commies.
Well too early to tell, we will see.
