SHIBU BULLISH - SHORT TERM JUMPBased on the technical signals, we're expecting a 5-15% bullish run that coincides with our Ultra Bull signal. These signals are designed to identify institutional support in the near term. Overall outlook is somewhat bearish, but this could be an interesting swing trade.
Based on the trading chart for SHIB/USD on the 1-hour timeframe from Coinbase, here is a technical analysis:
Trend Overview:
- The chart shows a general downward trend for SHIB/USD over the past several months, with the price consistently declining from late April through mid-August.
- The presence of multiple "ULTRA BEAR" labels indicates a strong bearish sentiment during this period, as the price continued to drop with little to no significant bullish reversals.
- There are a few instances where "ULTRA BULL" signals appeared, but they were short-lived and did not significantly change the overall bearish trend.
Technical Indicators:
- All three moving averages (EMA, SMA, VWMA) are showing values around 0.00001414, 0.00001413, and 0.00001413 respectively. These averages suggest that SHIB/USD has been consolidating at these levels recently, but the overall trend has remained bearish.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)**:
- The MACD value is extremely low at 0.00000002, which might indicate a lack of momentum in either direction. The MACD histogram also suggests minimal bullish or bearish momentum currently, aligning with the sideways movement seen in the last part of the chart.
Backtesting and Performance Summary:
- The backtesting section shows a net profit of $63,957.81 USD (6.40%) with a profit factor of 1.99. This indicates that while the strategy was profitable, it involved significant risk as evidenced by a maximum drawdown of $37,610.82 USD (3.62%).
- The average trade is worth $1,827.37 USD, with an average trade return of 1.83%. This suggests that the trading strategy applied has been more consistent with small, but positive gains.
Key Observations:
- **Bearish Dominance**: The consistent appearance of "ULTRA BEAR" labels reinforces the dominant bearish trend. The few "ULTRA BULL" signals indicate minor, short-term recoveries but are not enough to reverse the overall trend.
- **Consolidation Phase**: In the latter part of the chart, there seems to be a phase of consolidation where the price is moving sideways, with the price struggling to move above the resistance levels.
- **Potential Reversal**: The last "ULTRA BULL" signal around mid-August suggests a potential, though tentative, shift towards a bullish phase. However, this would require further confirmation by breaking key resistance levels and seeing sustained upward movement.
Conclusion:
The overall sentiment for SHIB/USD remains bearish, with occasional short-term bullish signals that have not yet resulted in a trend reversal. Traders should be cautious of the current consolidation phase, and any significant movement above the resistance levels would be needed to consider a bullish trend. For now, the prevailing bearish sentiment suggests that downward pressure may continue unless a strong reversal signal emerges.
