Shiba Inu Elliott Wave Analysis: What Starts in 5's, Ends in 5'sAnalyzing Shiba Inu’s price action from its inception from 2020, we observe a well defined 5-wave structure emerging from the low, signaling the completion of the higher degree wave (1). Applying a fib extension measurement from the start of wave 1 to wave 3, and then extending it to wave 4, we find that wave 5 extends precisely to the 1.618 extension level—which is usually the max extension for wave 5 using these three points. Further confirmation comes from the RSI of the TDI indicator, which exhibits reversal divergence between waves 3 and 5, a textbook characteristic of an impulse wave.
One of the unwritten rules of the Elliott Wave Principle is: “What starts in 5’s, ends in 5’s”, meaning a 5-wave sequence can either initiate or conclude a wave. In Shiba Inu’s case, this 5-wave structure represents the beginning of wave (1), which suggests that an additional 5-wave sequence will unfold for the higher degree wave (3), thereby satisfying the unwritten rule’s “end in 5’s” condition. However, following the impulse, Shib entered a prolonged and ongoing three-year corrective phase for the higher degree wave (2).
Following the completion of the 5-wave impulse, price undergoes a corrective retracement, forming a lower degree W wave. Applying a fib time zone measurement from the start to the end of the W wave, wave X aligns with the 2 in time, indicating equal duration between waves W and X. Furthermore, utilizing the trend based fib time measurement from the beginning of W to its completion, and then extending to X, price converges at the 0.536 in time, marking the completion of both the Y wave and the higher degree (W) wave.
Price then ascends in a lower degree WXY between the dates of June 5th, 2023 and March 4th, 2024. Applying a fib retracement from the beginning to the end of the higher degree (W) wave, we observe that price retraces just short of the 0.5 retracement level. Additionally, utilizing the fib time zone measurement from the start to the end of the (W) wave, price aligns with the 1.466 in time, marking the formation of the higher degree (X) wave. Concurrently, the RSI of the TDI indicator has surpassed the Bollinger Bands, reaching 88, indicating an overbought condition and suggesting that a downward pivot for the initiation of wave (Y) is imminent.
Following the confluence of overbought conditions in the TDI indicator and the fib retracement level, price undergoes a capitulation, forming another lower degree W wave. Applying a fib retracement from the beginning to the end of the W wave, price retraces to the .618 level on December 2nd, 2024. Additionally, utilizing the trend based fib time measurement from the beginning to the end of the W wave, price comes into the 1.786 in time, marking the formation of the lower degree X wave. The RSI of the TDI indicator once again surpasses the Bollinger Bands, reaching 70. The confluence of overbought conditions of the TDI and fib retracement level suggest an imminent pivot to the downside, indicating the onset of the lower degree wave Y within the (Y) wave.
To measure the retracement for the higher degree wave (2), a fib retracement is applied from the start to the end of the higher degree wave (1). Currently, price has undergone another capitulation but has found support at the .786 retracement level.
BOTTOM PRICE PREDICTION
By applying a fib extension measurement from the start of the lower degree W wave to its completion, then extending it to the lower degree X wave, the projected target for the lower degree Y wave aligns with the blue .618 extension level, approximately 0.000011910. Given that Shiba Inu tends to respect the .618 extension, my limit orders will be set at this level; however, price could extend further downward to the .886 retracement level, indicating a potential 15% decline to approximately 0.000010079. Regardless of which level price ultimately respects, this would complete the higher degree (Y) wave and concurrently the higher degree wave (2). Following this, price is expected to pivot upwards, initiating a 5-wave sequence for the higher degree wave (3), thereby satisfying the unwritten rule’s “ends in 5’s” condition.
TIME PREDICTION
By applying a trend based fib time measurement from the start to the completion of the higher degree (W) wave, and then extending it to the higher degree (X) wave, the .618 time projection for the higher degree (Y) wave is set on March 3, 2025.
Similarly, applying a trend based fib time measurement from the start to the completion of the lower degree wave W of the (Y) wave, and then extending it to the lower degree wave X of the (Y) wave, the .618 time projection for the lower degree wave Y of the (Y) wave is set for March 10, 2025.
The close overlap of these two projections—only one week apart—leads me to focus on the .618 time projections for both the lower and higher degree wave Y. I anticipate that price will terminate around these dates before continuing its upward movement in another 5-wave sequence. As always, time is only a guideline so please take it with a grain of salt.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Since October 25, 2021, Shiba Inu has been undergoing a WXY double three correction for the higher degree wave (2). After approximately 1,232 days, I anticipate that the meme coin is poised for a substantial rebound, potentially providing significant profits for token holders. As an Elliott Wave analyst, I have observed this exact pattern across the lower timeframes, reinforcing my conviction that the current weekly structure will evolve into another 5-wave sequence. This aligns with the fundamental principle of the unwritten rule: “What starts in 5’s, ends in 5’s”, suggesting that Shiba Inu is on the cusp of a major upward move.
