Rising Wedge Breakdown – Bearish Setup on Silver (XAGUSD)Silver (XAG/USD) is currently trading within a bearish rising wedge formation on the 8-hour timeframe, and the market structure is hinting at a potential reversal to the downside. The confluence of resistance zones, pattern anatomy, and historical price action all point to a high-probability short setup, especially if key support levels are breached.
📈 Pattern Analysis: Rising Wedge
A rising wedge is typically a bearish chart pattern that forms when price consolidates between two upward sloping trendlines. However, the upper trendline rises at a slower pace than the lower one—indicating decelerating bullish strength. It often precedes a bearish breakout, especially if volume decreases near the apex.
In this case, the wedge is forming just below a major resistance zone around the $34.00 area, adding weight to the bearish scenario.
🔹 Key Technical Levels :
🟥 Resistance Zone ($33.80–$34.80): Price has tested and rejected this area multiple times in recent weeks. It marks a clear liquidity zone where sellers are in control.
🟩 Support Zone ($29.50–$30.30): This zone has provided strong support in previous retracements. If broken, it may flip into resistance upon retest.
🟦 Retest Zone (~$31.00–$31.50): If the wedge breaks downward, price may retest this area—creating an opportunity for traders to enter short with better risk-reward.
🎯 Final Bearish Target : $26.85: This level is derived from the height of the wedge and prior demand zones, making it a strong target area in a fully played-out bearish move.
🧠 Market Structure & Sentiment:
Volume Analysis – Volume has been tapering off as the price squeezes within the wedge, which is a typical trait of rising wedges. A volume spike on breakdown would serve as confirmation.
Trend Analysis – While the overall trend in the medium term has been bullish, the weakening upward momentum suggests that buyers are losing strength, and sellers may regain control soon.
Rejection Candle s – Several recent candle wicks above the $33.50 zone show clear rejection and failure to close above, reinforcing the resistance level.
📊 Trade Plan (Educational Purposes Only):
Criteria Details
Bias Bearish (Rising Wedge Breakdown)
Entry Option 1 On breakdown of wedge + retest
Entry Option 2 Aggressive entry on breakdown candle close below $31.50
Stop Loss Above $33.80 (last resistance)
Take Profit 1 $30.00 (support zone)
Take Profit 2 $28.00 (partial exit)
Take Profit 3 $26.85 (final target)
📌 Trading Psychology Note:
Traders should remain patient and avoid entering prematurely. Let the pattern confirm itself with a clean break and retest. Risk management is critical—wedge patterns can also fake out before reversing hard.
🧾 Summary:
Silver is nearing the end of a rising wedge pattern, right under a heavy resistance zone. Historical behavior, weakening momentum, and classic wedge structure suggest a potential bearish reversal. A break below the wedge support and a retest around $31.00 could present a high-probability short trade setup targeting the $26.85 area.
Keep this chart on watch. A decisive move is likely coming soon.
SILVER trade ideas
Silver Rises to $32.60 on Safe-Haven DemandSilver (XAG/USD) climbed to around $32.60 per ounce on Thursday during Asian trading, recording its third consecutive gain as safe-haven demand increased amid rising U.S. fiscal concerns and global tensions.
Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating to Aa1, citing growing debt and deficits, added pressure on the Dollar. Ongoing unrest in the Middle East and Israel’s military actions in Gaza also supported precious metal prices. Meanwhile, Ukraine is preparing to urge the EU next week to seize Russian assets and target oil buyers, as U.S. sanctions appear to be losing momentum.
The first critical support for Silver is seen at 33.80, and the first resistance is located at 32.30.
Silver H4 | Potential bearish reversalSilver (XAG/USD) is trading close to an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 33.62 which is an overlap resistance.
Stop loss is at 34.70 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 31.76 which is a multi-swing-low support.
Disclaimer
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Market next target Disruption: Bullish Counter-Analysis
1. Trend Structure:
Despite the local rejection, the overall price trend has been bullish (higher highs and higher lows).
The pullback may just be a healthy retracement, not a reversal.
2. Volume Perspective:
Volume has increased on bullish candles before the resistance test — showing buyer interest.
No significant bearish volume spike to confirm a strong reversal.
3. False Breakdown Trap:
The setup might be a bear trap — a false break below minor support to trap shorts before a bounce higher.
4. Support Holds Strong:
The identified "Support" zone could act as a launch point for a bullish continuation.
If price forms a bullish engulfing or a pin bar in that area, it could invalidate the bearish thesis.
5. Macro Impact (FOMC/U.S. data nearby):
U.S. event (flag at bottom) might bring volatility.
If news is USD-negative, Silver may spike upwards regardless of technical patterns.
Bullish momentum to extend?The Silver (XAG/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 33.07
1st Support: 32.64
1st Resistance: 34.48
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Market next move . Breakout Exhaustion (Fakeout Risk)
The price has just broken out of the consolidation box.
However, volume is not significantly surging—a true breakout is often confirmed with strong volume.
A fake breakout could lead to a sharp reversal back into the box.
---
2. Overbought Conditions
Given the sharp rally leading into the consolidation, indicators like RSI are likely in overbought territory.
Price may need to cool off before any sustainable move higher.
This could trigger a pullback to retest the support around 33.10–33.20.
---
3. Rising Wedge Formation Potential
If the uptrend continues with narrowing price action, it could form a rising wedge—a bearish reversal pattern.
This might lead to a drop toward $33.00 or lower.
---
4. Strong Resistance Around $34.00
Psychological and historical resistance at the $34.00 level could halt or reverse upward movement.
It might trigger profit-taking or short-selling pressure.
---
5. Macro Catalyst Risk
With the U.S. news symbol shown (likely an upcoming economic release), the bullish structure could quickly be invalidated.
A hawkish Fed or strong U.S. data may pressure silver lower due to USD strength or rising yields.
SILVER Short From Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
SILVER keeps growing but
Its much slower than Gold
And the price is about to hit
A horizontal resistance level
Of 33.67$ from where we
Will be expecting a local
Pullback and a bearish correction
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SILVERSilver and US Dollar Correlation
Inverse Relationship
Silver and the US dollar (measured by the DXY index) have a strong inverse correlation. When the US dollar weakens, silver prices typically rise, and when the dollar strengthens, silver prices tend to fall. This relationship is rooted in silver being priced in dollars globally:
A stronger dollar makes silver more expensive for buyers using other currencies, reducing demand and putting downward pressure on prices.
A weaker dollar makes silver cheaper for foreign investors, boosting demand and driving prices higher.
Key Technical Levels: A breakdown below critical DXY levels (like 99.50) is often seen as a trigger for rapid dollar devaluation, which can spark explosive upward moves in silver prices.
Safe-Haven Demand: Geopolitical tensions or economic uncertainty can also drive demand for silver as a safe-haven asset, sometimes amplifying the inverse correlation with the dollar.
Other Influences: While the inverse correlation is strong, silver prices are also affected by factors such as interest rates, inflation, industrial demand, and mining supply. At times, these factors can override the dollar’s influence, especially in the short term.
Historical and Statistical Context
Quarterly and annual data consistently show a negative correlation coefficient between silver and the DXY, though the strength of this correlation can vary depending on broader market conditions.
For example, in 2020, as the DXY fell, silver prices rose sharply; the opposite occurred in 2022 when the dollar strengthened.
Summary Table
Dollar Trend Silver Price Impact
Dollar strengthens Silver usually falls
Dollar weakens Silver usually rises
In summary:
Silver prices generally move opposite to the US dollar. This inverse correlation is fundamental to the silver market and is closely watched by traders and investors. However, other macroeconomic and market-specific factors can sometimes temporarily weaken or override this relationship.
SILVERSilver and US Dollar Correlation
Inverse Relationship
Silver and the US dollar (measured by the DXY index) have a strong inverse correlation. When the US dollar weakens, silver prices typically rise, and when the dollar strengthens, silver prices tend to fall. This relationship is rooted in silver being priced in dollars globally:
A stronger dollar makes silver more expensive for buyers using other currencies, reducing demand and putting downward pressure on prices.
A weaker dollar makes silver cheaper for foreign investors, boosting demand and driving prices higher.
Technical and Fundamental Factors
Key Technical Levels: A breakdown below critical DXY levels (like 99.50) is often seen as a trigger for rapid dollar devaluation, which can spark explosive upward moves in silver prices.
Safe-Haven Demand: Geopolitical tensions or economic uncertainty can also drive demand for silver as a safe-haven asset, sometimes amplifying the inverse correlation with the dollar.
Other Influences: While the inverse correlation is strong, silver prices are also affected by factors such as interest rates, inflation, industrial demand, and mining supply. At times, these factors can override the dollar’s influence, especially in the short term.
Historical and Statistical Context
Quarterly and annual data consistently show a negative correlation coefficient between silver and the DXY, though the strength of this correlation can vary depending on broader market conditions.
Summary Table
Dollar Trend Silver Price Impact
Dollar strengthens Silver usually falls
Dollar weakens Silver usually rises
In summary:
Silver prices generally move opposite to the US dollar. This inverse correlation is fundamental to the silver market and is closely watched by traders and investors. However, other macroeconomic and market-specific factors can sometimes temporarily weaken or override this relationship.
Riding the Industrial RallySilver is making another attempt to break through the local high at 33.25.
If it breaks out, I’ll be adding to my long position.
For those not yet in the trade, this breakout could present a good opportunity to enter a long with limited risk. In that case, it's best to place a stop just below today’s low.
SILVER: The Market Is Looking Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 33.222 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
SILVER Will Go Higher! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for SILVER.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 3,314.0.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 3,380.1 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Market next move Bearish Counter-Analysis:
1. Resistance Zone Saturation:
The red box shows repeated tests of the resistance area around $33.14–$33.20. This can suggest exhaustion instead of momentum.
Multiple failed attempts to break this zone can result in bearish rejection.
2. Volume Divergence:
The volume appears to be declining even as price approaches resistance. This divergence can imply a lack of buyer strength, which is a red flag for a bullish continuation.
3. Possible Bull Trap:
A sharp move above resistance followed by a quick drop back inside (false breakout) could trap long traders.
This may be followed by a sharp sell-off toward the previous support level (~$32.60–$32.80).
4. Candlestick Patterns:
Watch closely for bearish candlestick patterns like doji, shooting star, or bearish engulfing in the red box. Their appearance would strengthen a bearish reversal case.
5. MACD/RSI (if available):
If the RSI is overbought or MACD shows a bearish crossover, it would reinforce the possibility of a downward retracement.
“Silver on the Edge – Is Wave 5 Loading?”📈 This daily analysis of Silver (XAGUSD) begins from the impulsive move starting in September 2022 at $17.535. Based on Elliott Wave Theory, the market appears to be entering the early stages of a potential Wave 5.
🔹 **Conservative Scenario:** Wave (2) within Wave 5 may be developing. As long as price holds above the 23.6%–50% Fibonacci retracement zone ($31.674 – $29.556), we expect Wave 3 of 5 to launch toward the $37.60 – $41.94 targets.
🔹 **Aggressive Scenario:** If the correction has already completed, Wave 3 of 5 might be underway. Any corrective pullback can be viewed as a continuation opportunity within the bullish trend.
🔻 **Invalidation Levels:**
▫️ First: $31.674
▫️ Second: $27.942
As long as price remains above these levels, the bullish count stays valid.
📌 The current wave structure remains aligned with the bullish channel, supporting further upside potential into Wave 5.
– Patterns whisper. I listen.
– Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
Silver – Breaking Higher, But Harmonic Patterns Signal CautionFX_IDC:XAGUSD
Silver has broken above the $32.62 resistance, confirming bullish momentum and clearing the way for continued upside. However, traders should be aware of key harmonic resistance zones now coming into view.
A bearish alt-bat pattern is projected around $33.44, while a bearish crab pattern emerges near $34.22, aligning with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension zone. Both levels mark potential exhaustion points where price could face meaningful resistance and possibly reverse.
🧭 Key Zones to Monitor:
Broken Resistance: $32.62
Bearish Alt-Bat PRZ (113% Fib Ext.): $33.44
Bearish Crab PRZ (161.8% Fib Ext.): $34.22
📌 Upside is active, but heavy harmonic resistance ahead. Watch for reaction at $33.44 and $34.22.
Happy Trading,
André Cardoso
Silver Rectangle Pattern Breakout | XAGUSD Analysis + Target🔍 Technical Overview
Silver has been forming a textbook rectangle consolidation pattern over the past few weeks, bouncing between a clearly defined Support Zone (~$32.10) and Resistance Zone (~$33.40). This range-bound movement indicates accumulation, a phase where smart money typically builds positions before initiating a directional breakout.
Currently, price action shows a breakout attempt toward the upper resistance. If momentum continues, we could see a bullish breakout, followed by a potential retest of the broken resistance (now support). A successful retest would confirm a high-probability setup for a move to higher targets.
📌 Key Technical Zones
Support Zone: ~$32.10
This level has been tested multiple times, with price consistently bouncing higher, signaling strong buyer interest.
Minor Resistance Zone: ~$33.00
Acted as an intermediate ceiling within the rectangle. Once broken, this level became a signpost for bullish continuation.
Main Resistance Zone: ~$33.40
The top boundary of the rectangle; this is the key breakout level.
Target 1 (TP1): $34.58
A logical resistance level based on previous price structure and breakout projection.
Target 2 (TP2): $35.22
A more extended target derived from the height of the rectangle pattern projected from the breakout point (measured move).
⚙️ Price Action Insights
Rectangle Pattern Behavior: Price ranged within horizontal support/resistance, forming consistent highs and lows — a strong signal of accumulation.
Momentum Shift: Recent bullish candles and higher lows suggest buying pressure is increasing.
Breakout in Progress: Price is currently pushing above the upper rectangle boundary. A confirmed breakout candle close followed by a retest would provide a higher-probability entry opportunity.
Retest Strategy: Retests are critical for confirmation. A pullback to ~$33.40 with rejection signals (e.g., bullish engulfing, pin bar) would strengthen the case for further upside.
🧠 Mindset & Strategy Explanation
This setup represents patience, structure, and discipline in trading:
✅ Wait for the Pattern : Rectangle patterns often trap impatient traders. Waiting for a confirmed breakout and retest gives higher-quality entries.
✅ Risk Management is Key : Use the structure of the rectangle to define risk. Stops should be set just below the last swing low or inside the range.
✅ Targeting with Precision: TP1 and TP2 are not random — they’re derived from prior resistance levels and pattern projections. This keeps your trading logical, not emotional.
✅ Mind Over Market: Don’t chase breakouts. Wait for confirmation. The retest is often your friend in swing trading setups like this.
📋 Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice)
📍 Entry: On confirmed breakout above $33.40 or retest of this level with bullish confirmation.
🎯 Target 1: $34.58 (partial take profit suggested)
🎯 Target 2: $35.22 (measured move projection)
🛑 Stop Loss: Below $32.70 (under recent support structure)
🔁 Optional: Trail stop loss after TP1 to lock in profits as TP2 approaches.
🧠 Final Thoughts for Traders
This chart provides a clean example of how price consolidates before expansion. The rectangle pattern allows for easy identification of entry/exit zones and offers a solid risk-to-reward setup. Whether you're a new trader learning to spot consolidation patterns or a seasoned pro looking for low-risk, high-reward setups — this XAGUSD formation is one to watch.
Keep an eye on volume and candle structure around the breakout zone. Confirmation is key. Discipline is everything.
SILVER RISKY LOCAL SHORT|
✅SILVER is going up now
But despite our mid-term
Bullish bias the price will
Soon hit a horizontal
Resistance level around 33.20$
From where a local bearish
Pullback will be expected
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
XAG/USD Daily AnalysisXAG/USD found strong buying at $29.00
At $33.50 we saw price exhaustion and a correction start to form.
Look for price to break to the upside and give a buy signal which meets your strategy rules.
This is an idea of what may happen.
Always trade with a profitable strategy and good risk management.
Silver Wave Analysis – 20 May 2025
- Silver reversed from support level 31.70
- Likely to rise to resistance level 33.50
Silver recently reversed from the pivotal support level 31.70 (which stopped the previous minor wave a at the end of April, as can be seen from the daily Silver chart below).
The support level 31.70 was further strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse 1 from April.
Silver can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 33.50 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1).
SILVER: Next Move Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 32.982 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 33.261 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️