XAGUSD - Silver Awaiting Higher Numbers?!On the 4-hour timeframe, silver is above the EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving within its ascending channel. If the correction continues, we could see the channel bottom. A consolidation above $31 will provide us with a path for silver to rise to the supply zone, where we can sell with a risk-reward ratio.
South West Pinnacle Exploration Ltd JV has announced plans to commence exploration for copper, gold, and silver in Block 22B in Oman. The company has signed a concession agreement for this block, which is believed to hold significant potential for further mineral discoveries.
Despite some challenges, Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, holds a more optimistic view on silver due to its dual role as a monetary and industrial metal. He stated, “In 2024, increased industrial demand contributed to a physical deficit in the silver market. Sectors such as electronics and renewable energy, especially photovoltaic (solar) technologies, played a major role in driving this demand.”
Hansen predicts that steady industrial demand will keep silver in a supply deficit heading into 2025. This deficit could be further exacerbated by rising financial or “paper demand” through financial instruments like exchange-traded funds (ETFs). (“Paper demand” refers to financial transactions without physical backing, such as futures, options, or ETFs, as opposed to physical commodity purchases.)
Hansen also forecasts that silver will continue to outperform gold, expecting the gold-to-silver ratio to decline from the current level of 88 to around 75. His positive outlook on silver aligns with his broader perspective on the commodities market, where he sees greater potential for metals linked to the electrification of the global economy compared to those tied to construction.
He elaborated: “Among industrial metals, we maintain our long-term positive outlook on those that support the energy transition, particularly copper and aluminum. These metals are crucial for investments in power grids and the rapid expansion of renewable energy installations, including electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind turbines. On the other hand, we see limited potential for metals like iron ore and steel, which are heavily reliant on construction sector demand.”
Meanwhile, trade tensions between the United States and China, which escalated early in Trump’s presidency, appear to be easing. Many major companies, including Nike, Amazon, and Apple, stand to suffer significant losses if tariffs are increased. On the other hand, China has indicated that it is prepared to take retaliatory measures against any new tariffs, which could push Trump toward negotiation rather than confrontation.
In response to Trump’s threat of imposing new tariffs on Chinese goods, China’s Ministry of Commerce stated: “China is willing to work with the United States to promote the sustainable and healthy development of economic and trade relations.”
