Double Top on AliBaba. BABAYes, and overbought for along time now out of OBOS with bearish price action. Lagging indicators are still catching up as they do with most pivot takes, but if wrong stop losses act within one or two candle sticks.
BABA trade ideas
Alibaba - This Chart Is Pretty Beautiful!Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) is perfectly respecting structure:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
With a rally of about +80% within a couple of weeks, Alibaba is clearly showing signs of bulls completely taking over. This pressure was not unexpected though after we perfectly witnessed the major trendline breakout a couple of months ago and a retest of the confluence of support.
Levels to watch: $140, $110
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
CHINA FIN MARKETS | Investing in China & AIChina's market resurgence might pose some great opportunities for investors, especially after a long bearish cycle for the global Chinese financial markets.
February 2025 saw a significant shake-up in global markets, with China emerging as a key player driving investor sentiment. The MSCI China Index surged by 11.2% for the month, vastly outperforming the MSCI US Index:
One of the biggest catalysts behind China’s recent rally has been its advancements in Artificial Intelligence (DeepSeekAI being one of the key drivers).
By operating at a fraction of the cost of their US counterparts, such as OpenAI and Meta, DeepSeek's competitive advantage has given China an edge in the AI space, which can be seen in the market confidence.
XIAOMI has been one of the top gainers, largely as they are expanding their market penetration:
Chinese markets in February saw a boost when President Xi Jinping was warmly received by tech industry leaders. A handshake between Xi and Alibaba’s Jack Ma who previously stepped back from the public eye following regulatory crackdowns, was seen as a major gesture of reconciliation between the government and the private sector. This renewed support for private enterprises.
China’s long-term strategy has been paying dividends in high-tech industries. China has increased its global market share in nearly all industries and is outperforming competitors in cost-efficiency, particularly in sectors like copper smelting.
Despite recent gains, China’s stock market has yet to fully recover from its underperformance over the past decade. While the MSCI China Index has risen 34.6% over the past year, long-term returns still lag behind global markets. A US$100 investment in an MSCI World Index tracker in 2010 would have grown to US$480 by early 2024, whereas the same amount invested in an MSCI China Index fund would have only reached US$175.
China’s resurgence has brought a renewed sense of optimism, but investors remain cautious. While AI advancements and low cost of labor have positioned China as a competitive force, historical challenges like regulatory intervention, tariffs and economic instability still loom.
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BABA - Too fast too soonGood company, fairly valued at this point. Px increased too fast and due for a correction.
Shorting at 140 for 15-20% correction as a hedge
Elliott Wave View: Alibaba (BABA) Rallying in 5 WavesAlibaba (ticker: BABA) started a 5 waves rally from Jan 22, 2024 low. Up from there, wave (1) ended at 116.57 and wave (2) pullback ended at 80.06. Wave (3) higher ended at 145.3 as the 30 minutes chart below shows. Wave (4) pullback unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (3), wave ((i)) ended at 138.3 and wave ((ii)) ended at 143.75. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 128.44 and wave ((iv)) ended at 131.5. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 127.78 which completed wave A in higher degree.
Wave B rally also unfolded as a zigzag structure. Up from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 136.66 and wave ((b)) ended at 130.75. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 143 which completed wave B in higher degree. The stock then turned lower in wave C as an impulse. Down from wave B, wave ((i)) ended at 138.29 and wave ((ii)) ended at 142.1. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 130.14 and wave ((iv)) ended at 135.99. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 126.1 which completed wave C of (4) in higher degree.
The stock has resumed higher in wave (5) and broken above wave (3) confirming the next leg higher has started. Up from wave (4), wave 1 ended at 146.76. Pullback in wave 2 is now in progress to correct cycle from 3.4.2025 low before the stock resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 126.16 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
BABA: Near Sell Point (60% Downside)Observed BABA testing double top formation with higher volume and this week could be possible pivotal point for downside. Possible retracement from 142-144 and RSI forming bearish Divergence soon. This does not affect US stock market momentum.
BABA - Attempt to retrace its highWriting this as an example to friends of why its so important to put in a "Stop Loss" in every position that you're holding overnight or even long term.
In this scenario I bought at the top and held the position for five years, waiting for a bottom to form.
1st Purchase: 12-29-2020 - (30) Shares @ 231.30
2nd Purchase: 05-23-2024 - (30) Shares @ 81.91
3rd Purchase: 11-14-2024 - (20) Shares @ 90.54
This is where we are at today. I have a method of trying to identify the completion of a bottom. Then use Wyckoff method to figure out where is the spring phase to catch good pricing.
Then I've been adding to the loss position to lower my long-term loss and hopefully come out with a profit. "RED Dotted Line labeled AVG COST"
As of today 03-05-2025 this holding is at a $278.29 Profit. Not bad for holding 5 years just to make almost $300 dollars profit but better yet.
Valuable lessons learned both as a trader/investor:
1. Keep your losses short, put in a Stop Loss once the order has been filled or when opening the position
2. Pride - the market doesn't care if you're right or wrong. Its your pride and ego that's stopping you from admitting the trade is working against you and action needs to be taken.
3. Pride - you're not going to catch the absolute Top or Bottom. The Trend is your Friend, ride that wave until you get stopped out at a HAPPY Profit.
Either way, like I tell anyone who wants to start trading or investing. The market will show you what you need to improve on. Its important to keep a trading log, creating a trading plan, and most importantly - LIMIT your LOSES.
BABA - Small pullback, another leg higher?
BABA also looks strong with the recent pullback being small which indicates strong bulls. If there is a good entry tomorrow and the broader market holds sideways to up, this could be a good candidate for a long trade.
$BABA Massive Support BounceAlibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) presents a compelling investment opportunity for 2025, supported by several key factors:
Analyst Projections: Analysts maintain a "Strong Buy" consensus for Alibaba, with an average 12-month price target of $125.40, indicating a potential upside of approximately 55.72% from the current price.
Strategic Investments and AI Integration: Alibaba's strategic investments, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), are expected to drive growth in its e-commerce and cloud computing segments. The integration of AI-powered tools and services positions the company to capitalize on emerging technological trends.
International Expansion: The company's international and logistics segments have experienced revenue growth, reflecting Alibaba's efforts to expand its global footprint. This diversification enhances its revenue streams and reduces dependence on the domestic market.
Valuation and Market Position: Despite recent stock performance, Alibaba is considered undervalued compared to its peers, trading at conservative multiples. Its dominant position in e-commerce and cloud services, coupled with substantial cash reserves, underscores its potential for a market rebound.
In summary, Alibaba's favorable analyst outlook, strategic investments in AI, international expansion, and attractive valuation suggest that BABA is a promising investment for 2025.
ALIBABA WYCKOFFHello
Here I present my possible idea of an accumulation campaign that has lasted almost 3 years and now ends with a brake out, being able to buy back when it reaches the upper level of the campaign around 118 usd.
It is somewhat unclear what the climax would be but it is a clear example of absorption volumes.
SWING LONG $BABABullish on chinese equities for 2025.
I have been accumulating NYSE:BABA since early 2024. My target is $200 aprox.
Cheers.
BABA in a falling wedge (NEW)BABA stock has been in a long-term downtrend.
We're expecting the price to continue droping as it looks like it got rejected from the downsloping resistance line on the weekly timeframe.
What we can see on the chart is a pattern called a falling wedge.
Most likely the price will revisit $60 or lower but eventually we expect the breakout in Q2 or Q3 2023.
How to trade:
Enter long position if/when we get a breakout with a volume increase.
Final target and the take profit level are shown on the chart.
Good luck
BABA looks bullish. Are you ready?Are you still waiting for lower prices ?
Buying lows from 2016 was not cheap enough for you?
Baba created higher lows structure on weekly. Looks mega bullish. Expecting more upside soon
Target 1: 170 $
target 2: 200 $
Stop loss: 76,50 $
BABA - ready for a trend reversalhi traders,
Let's have a look at the BABA chart on the 1D time frame.
After a massive rally, BABA experienced a deep pullback, but it looks like it might be time to load up on BABA again.
BABA is still in our buy zone but we're expecting the trend reversal soon.
Probably US market will experience some sort of pullback in its bull market and in this period we're expecting China market to have a nice recovery.
Our targets for BABA:
Target 1: 107 $
Target 2: 117$
We're expecting other Chinese stocks to perform well too . Check NIO stock here:
Good luck
BABA: Continuity of the upward trendOn BABA as you can see on the chart we have the breakout with force the vwap by the buyers. So it's mean that we have a continuity of the upward trend.
Alibaba (BABA) Price will drop, short termThe price of BABA will drop to around marked area...
The price can spike up at the beginning of the trading day, but couple of days or max 1 week will drop.
My publications are not trading advise. Do your own analysis. I am not responsible for your losses.
BABA: Buy ideaHigh probability of seeing the market go up on BABA after a rebound on the support line and also this will be confirmed by the forceful break of the vwap by buyers.
Alibaba (BABA) AnalysisCompany Overview:
Alibaba NYSE:BABA is a global e-commerce and technology powerhouse, with leadership in online retail, cloud computing, and digital entertainment.
Key Catalysts:
Generative AI Leadership 🤖
Alibaba’s Qwen2.5 Max AI model has outperformed GPT-4 and LLaMA3.1-405B in benchmark tests, reinforcing its AI dominance.
Strategic Partnership with Apple 🍏
Integration of Alibaba’s AI models into iPhones in China could boost Alibaba Cloud adoption, driving revenue growth and market share expansion.
Cloud Computing Growth ☁️
Alibaba Cloud’s margins are projected to expand from 3% to 10% by 2026, with 18% annual revenue growth, positioning it as a $100B valuation business.
Shareholder Value Initiatives 💰
A $25B share buyback and a growing 1.2% dividend yield reflect strong financial confidence and commitment to shareholder returns.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We are bullish on BABA above $108.00-$110.00, driven by AI advancements, cloud expansion, and strategic partnerships.
Upside Potential: Our price target is $185.00-$190.00, supported by cloud growth, AI innovation, and strong capital allocation.
📢 Alibaba—Powering the Future of AI, Cloud, and E-Commerce. #Alibaba #AI #CloudComputing #Ecommerce
Is Alibaba still a BUY ?Now, from being ostracised by the Central government to being in the limelight after 3 years, we are now seeing Alibaba returning to stage once again and capturing the hearts of "love and hate" retail investors.
Those who had bought it around 200 price level back then would be relieved in some way to see the share price slowly inching back to their purchase price and their paper loss amount reducing. Hope this gives them a good night sleep.
There are many school of thoughts in investing and to say that one school is better than the others would be biased and self centred. There are factors like risk tolerance, time frame of investment, capital, knowledge of market, etc.
If you are in your mid 50s, would you want to risk say 10K to invest in this stock? Yes, if you believe in its growth story and you have a higher risk appetite and if the price falls back to 80 , you are OK and would not have sleepless night. It is too simplistic to say that people in this age category should invest in dividend stocks - a broad base of market categorisation.
However, if you are in your 20s but you are a thrifty little squirrel and have not heard of the stock market, fearful even to do paper trade, then it is wiser not to put even 1k in this growth stock. At less than 2% dividend, you are better off parking your funds in the government bonds.
So, to answer a straight YES or NO without considering the background of the investors would be putting the cart before the horse. Everybody situation is different and those who have bought are somewhat biased else they would not have bought it and those who think all China stocks are uninvestable would naturally stay away even this tech giant in China.
For me, I am riding on the rally and awaiting for it to pull back to 120-125 price level before accumulating. Please DYODD
BABA Weekly Chart: Massive Breakout with Strong VolumeThe BABA weekly chart showcases a powerful breakout, accompanied by substantial volume, signaling strong bullish momentum. The price has decisively broken through key structural resistance and surged above the IPO AVWAP, reinforcing the strength of this move. However, the RSI is approaching overbought territory, and there’s a potential for a double top formation. Should this scenario unfold, a retest of the IPO AVWAP around the $130 level would be a healthy sign, potentially providing a strong entry point for bulls. The immediate resistance stands at $159.20, and a successful flip of this level could pave the way for targets at $174 and $197. Additionally, the significant volume increase could indicate institutional participation, adding credibility to the breakout. Keeping an eye on the volume trend during any pullback will be crucial to assess whether sellers are stepping in or if the bulls remain in control.
BABA: Continuity of the upward trendOn BABA we are above the vwap and on top of that, depending on the configuration of the chart we would have a high probability of having a continuity of this upward trend.
