CN50 Move to range highs nextHad a range deviation and now trading back inside the range range. Looks set to retest the top of the range. Excellent risk to reward from here.
CHINA50 trade ideas
China's Stimulus Surge: A Short-Lived Rally?In late September, we published a piece titled China A50 Stimulus Surge, detailing how Beijing’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies could spark a powerful rally in the China A50 index. At its peak, the index gained more than 40%, breaking free from months of downward pressure. However, the rally has lost momentum in recent days, with the index now down 16% from its October highs. So, what’s behind this sudden shift?
Stimulus Optimism: A Double-Edged Sword
The excitement began to fizzle on October 8th, following an underwhelming briefing from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). While the commission pledged $28 billion to local governments and vowed to accelerate fiscal spending, it wasn’t enough to sustain investor enthusiasm. Markets had been hoping for more significant measures to follow the September stimulus, and without those, the optimism was short-lived – triggering a bout of profit taking following the near exponential rally.
China A50 Back at Key Technical Levels
From a technical perspective, the China A50 index is now trading back at the VWAP (volume-weighted average price) anchored to the pre-breakout lows. This level, which has the potential to act as a strong support zone in pullbacks, will be crucial to watch. It reflects a battle between short-term traders who are taking profits and longer-term investors who might see this as an entry point following the sharp correction.
However, it’s worth noting that while the index has pulled back to a key support zone, there remains uncertainty around whether the fundamental catalysts are strong enough to reignite bullish momentum.
CN50 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
What to Watch Going Forward
Now that the China A50 has returned to its anchored VWAP, the market could consolidate at these levels as it digests the recent stimulus measures. For any sustained rally to take hold again, more aggressive policy actions, like consumption vouchers or further infrastructure spending, may be required. Investors will be keeping a close eye on any new announcements from Beijing, especially as China seeks to meet its year-end growth targets.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
China A50 Bear Move Looks to Continue The China A50, an index focusing on mainland stocks, rose impressively by 46% from September to its peak on Monday, October 7th. However, since then, the index has slumped by 17%, making it an exciting market to trade.
There is a risk of continued downside, as the price remains in a downtrend, and this will persist as long as it trades below the critical level at 14,569. The next support levels are at 13,259, followed by 12,747 and 12,024.
While a breach to the 14,569 level, the market may attempt to reach the October 8th high 16,111, especially if the Chinese government releases new details on its support programs.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
CN50 - What’s Next?After a strong bullish rally, the weekly chart shows the completion of a Bearish Gartley pattern around the key resistance zone near 16,000, and now the market faces a big question:
Are we going to see a reversal, or is the bullish momentum strong enough to break through?
Key Considerations:
Bearish Gartley Pattern: Traditionally signals a potential reversal, especially when coinciding with strong resistance.
Strong Resistance: The 16,300-16,600 zone has held back prices before, making it a key area to watch.
Momentum: The recent rally has been strong, but are the bulls running out of steam, or is there still room for further gains?
Questions for Discussion:
1. Will we see a reversal at 16,000, or is this a consolidation before another leg higher?
Is the current rally supported by strong fundamentals, or is this purely technical?
2. What are your preferred strategies here – waiting for a breakout or looking for short opportunities?
Share your thoughts! Is CN50 heading for a reversal, or are the bulls ready to push through this critical zone?
CHINAA50: Chinese Indices SpeedsUp on Economic StimulusChinese markets are poised for a major rebound after the Golden Week holiday, buoyed by expectations of further economic stimulus measures from the government. Among the indices expected to lead this recovery is the China A50, which groups the top 50 companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. The optimism comes on the back of the announcement of more supportive policies by the Chinese government designed to revitalize domestic demand and strengthen key sectors such as finance and technology. In addition to Chinese indices, other Asian markets have also been helped by optimism about China, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng rising 0.6%. However, Asian currencies, such as the Japanese yen, have suffered losses against a strengthening dollar due to expectations of lower interest rate cuts in the United States.
Key Elements:
• Economic stimulus in China: the country's top economic planner is expected to announce further supportive measures, which has led to expectations of a significant rebound in indices such as the Shanghai Composite and the CSI 300, both recovering from eight-month lows. Recent stimulus policies, designed to boost domestic demand and support key sectors such as technology and financials, have revitalized investor optimism. This has allowed the Shanghai Composite and the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300, which had hit eight-month lows, to show signs of recovery.
• China A50: This index, which groups together the top 50 companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, is a benchmark for international investors. The large corporations in the financial, technology and consumer sectors that make up the China A50 could benefit directly from stimulus policies, attracting greater foreign investment. The China A50 is a benchmark for large Chinese companies, such as Ping An Insurance and Tencent, which could benefit from the new credit facilities and tax measures. These companies, with weight in the financial and technology sectors, are well positioned to capitalize on the stimulus and generate value for investors.
• Dollar strength and Asian markets: Despite optimism about China, Asian currencies have suffered losses against a strengthening dollar. Expectations of lower rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve have boosted the value of the dollar, affecting the Japanese yen and the South Korean won.
• Comparison with other indices: While other Asian markets such as the Hang Seng and the KOSPI have experienced slight gains, the China A50 stands out as the index with the highest growth potential thanks to the imminent stimulus measures.
Technical aspect: Looking at the chart, the index has been boosted on September 29 and then at the beginning of last week with several impulses that have moved the index in 15 days 41.12% upwards with 15,864 points at record highs and positioning it as one of the most interesting indexes following the performance of companies such as Tencent with excellent results. We can observe a highly overbought RSI at 89.41% and the bollinger bands very wide, the volume candles of the last 24 hours indicate a decrease in demand, which could indicate that the price of the index could be corrected.
Conclusion: The FTSE China A50 Index is positioned as a key index in the Chinese stock market environment, leading the way with high growth expectations driven by economic stimulus. Investors will closely monitor its performance, which could set an uptrend in the coming months. The resumption of trading after the Golden Week will be key to observe how markets react to these policies and what growth opportunities will emerge.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
CHINA50This is the only bullish bet I can take currently. Not at this level for sure. Let is consolidate and make some contraction pattern then I will buy it
China A50 Surges on Stimulus, Bull Flag Breakout PossibleThe China A50 index has surged following significant stimulus measures by the Chinese government and central bank. The price is currently consolidating in a bull flag pattern, with a potential breakout above 15,156 possibly driving the price as high as 15,540.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
China Stock Market Rally To Continue?Chinese outlook is looking more positive after posted stimulus.
Rallies are occurring fast and come with significant risk.
Do not FOMO in. Do not short a massive amount. Just trade it carefully with light entries, only buy on significant dips.
Any shorts come with danger and must be light and spread out.
CN50USD to continue in the rally?CHN50 - 24h expiry
There is no indication that the rally is coming to an end.
Although we remain bullish overall, a correction is possible with plenty of room to move lower without impacting the trend higher.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 13200 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 13500.
We look to Buy at 12900 (stop at 12740)
Our profit targets will be 13300 and 13500
Resistance: 13200 / 13300 / 13500
Support: 13000 / 12900 / 12750
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
CHINA50 to continue in the upward move?CHN50 - 24h expiry
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Although we remain bullish overall, a correction is possible with plenty of room to move lower without impacting the trend higher.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 12250 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 12350.
We look to Buy at 12100 (stop at 12000)
Our profit targets will be 12300 and 12350
Resistance: 12250 / 12300 / 12350
Support: 12150 / 12100 / 12000
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
China's bazooka will likely spur a convergence to the US MarketsSince 2023 we've seen a massive divergence between China and US equities.
The overnight package by the PBOC could spur some longer term rotation back into China and out of the US equities markets in the weeks and months ahead.
China A50 Stimulus SurgeChina has announced a blockbuster stimulus package, sending the China A50 index surging higher. Let’s take a look at how this move is reshaping market momentum and what it could mean for the broader economic landscape.
Beijing's Bold Move to Boost Growth
In a bid to counter slowing growth, China has unleashed a wave of stimulus measures, including cuts to its benchmark interest rate and the reserve requirement ratio (RRR). The People's Bank of China reduced the short-term reverse repo rate to 1.5% from 1.7%, while trimming the RRR by 0.5 percentage points, injecting liquidity worth RMB 1 trillion ($142 billion) into the banking system. With a property sector slowdown and deflationary pressures dragging down consumer sentiment, the stimulus is aimed at boosting demand, encouraging investment, and stabilizing the financial markets. This move also comes amidst a backdrop of weaker growth projections, as economists lower their forecasts below the government’s 5% target for the year.
China A50 Breaks Free: A Shift in Momentum
The China A50 index responded with a sharp rally, breaking out of the descending channel that had capped price action for the last four months. On the daily chart, this breakout above key resistance was supported by a significant uptick in volume, signalling strong market conviction. However, the long-term technical picture remains bearish, as the 50-day moving average is still below the 200-day moving average. For short-term traders, the hourly chart offers potential entry points. Pullbacks to the 9-day exponential moving average (9EMA) could be a disciplined approach to capitalise on the newfound momentum, avoiding the risk of chasing the market higher.
China A50 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
China A50 Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Unlocking Potential Opportunities from China’s Stimulus Surge
• Mining Stocks: With China’s stimulus likely to increase infrastructure spending, demand for commodities could rise. Mining companies, particularly those involved in copper, iron ore, and other raw materials, stand to benefit from renewed construction activity.
• China-Focused Financial Stocks: Banks and insurers with significant exposure to China, like Prudential and HSBC, could benefit from heightened lending and investment activity, while a recovery in the property sector could further boost their profitability.
• Luxury Goods Stocks: China's consumer base is pivotal for the global luxury goods market. Companies with significant exposure to Chinese spending, particularly in fashion and luxury retail, may experience tailwinds as the stimulus helps revive consumer confidence and spending.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83.51% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CN50 INDICIE Long Trade on Pullback b.
I saw this at the weekend as something that was going to cross-up today into a Long-trade with momentum and strength.
The shape of RSI - Stochastic's Patterns and Price - all revealed that this would rally today
CHINA A50 Death Cross to push it lower but buy opportunity lurksThe China A50 index (CN50) completed yesterday a 1D Death Cross following a convincing rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and that should extend the Channel Down to a new Lower Low.
Technically it appears to far to be in good symmetry with the Falling Wedge's previous Bearish Leg, that found a temporary bottom after a -14.76% decline and rebounded to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, despite the current weakness, we expect this last push to stop around 11100 - 11000 and then rebound to 12100 (0.618 Fib).
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CN50 dips to continue attract buyers?CHN50 - 24h expiry
Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart.
RSI (relative strength indicator) is flat and reading close to 50 (mid-point) highlighting the fact that we are non- trending.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 11850 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 12000.
We look to Buy at 11750 (stop at 11670)
Our profit targets will be 11950 and 12000
Resistance: 11850 / 11950 / 12000
Support: 11750 / 11700 / 11650
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Analysis of the CN50 Index and Its Significance by the MallicastMinor price fluctuations in the CN50 index can have significant impacts on the cryptocurrency and forex markets. According to Mallicast's analysis, the CN50 index is expected to enter a bullish phase. This upward movement is likely to result in an increase in USDT.D and the DXY index.
Analysis of the CN50 Index and Its Significance by the MallicastMinor price fluctuations in the CN50 index can have significant impacts on the cryptocurrency and forex markets. According to Mallicast's analysis, the CN50 index is expected to enter a bullish phase. This upward movement is likely to result in an increase in USDT.D and the DXY index.
CN50 remains mixed and volatile.CHN50 - 24h expiry
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Price action has continued to trend strongly lower and has stalled at the previous support near 11500. A move through 11800 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 11950.
RSI (relative strength indicator) is flat and reading close to 50 (mid-point) highlighting the fact that we are non- trending.
We look to Buy at 11725 (stop at 11625)
Our profit targets will be 11925 and 11950
Resistance: 11850 / 11925 / 11950
Support: 11750 / 11725 / 11650
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
CN50 rallies to continue attract sellers?CHN50 - 24h expiry
Price action has continued to trend strongly higher and has stalled at the previous resistance near 11700.
RSI (relative strength indicator) is flat and reading close to 50 (mid-point) highlighting the fact that we are non- trending.
We expect a reversal in this move.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
A move through 11650 will confirm the bearish momentum.
We look to Sell at 11700 (stop at 11760)
Our profit targets will be 11550 and 11450
Resistance: 11700 / 11750 / 11800
Support: 11600 / 11500 / 11450
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
CHINA A50 Rebound expected.The China A50 index (CN50) eventually closed below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) last time we looked into it (June 14, see chart below) and hit our 11800 downside Target:
The long-term pattern remains bearish in the form of a Falling Wedge, but right now we expect a medium-term counter-trend rebound similar to the one that followed the May 30 2023 Low and reached the 0.236 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we turn bullish on this index, targeting 12350 (0.236 Fib and top of the Falling Wedge).
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Fading the Risk RecoveryFundamentals & Sentiment
CN50A:
- The general narrative: China is struggling to recover, thus Chinese Indices fell behind the rest of the world during the recovery
- Balance of trade is down
USD
- Fed officials tried to calm the markets, Dollar Smile Theory
Technical & Other
-Risk recovery has been exhausting and CN50A was behind all other indices
Setup: TC(B)
Setup timeframe: 4h
Trigger: 1h
Medium-term: Down
Long-term: Down
Min target: Feb support
Risk: 0.64%
CN50 looks bearish nowhi traders
CN50 looks bearish.
Head and shoulders formation and bearish cross on Alligator .
The head and shoulders seem to be playing out. Break down occured and the bearish retest seems to be done.
Still early to enter short and the risk is low.
Target for shorts: 10,836
Good luck
