Hang Seng - an alternative bearish countI posted a bullish count for the Hang Seng a little while back but looking at the speed of this correction makes me consider more bearish possibilities. Here is one of them that suggests that the run up from December 2016 to January 2018 was in fact an extended 5th wave which now requires the necessary correction which is taking the shape of a double zigzag. If it can turn around before the level marked with my purple line then the bullish count gains favour again. Lets see.....
HK50 trade ideas
Hang Seng...Bulls or Bears? Who will win?Hello Traders,
Hang Seng gaped to the upside by the opening and made a high @ 26818.8 at the first trading hour. The index then declined for the remainder of the session to an intraday low @ 26295.5! The a/d-ratio was negative with 15 stocks advancing or neutral and 35 stocks declining today.
On the two graphs below you will observe the bullish and the bearish count on a daily basis! Let`s go!
Bullish count:
As before, the bullish variety is a series of „one`s and two`s“ to the upside. As you will notice, today`s intraday low @ 26925 is close to a validation level @ 26006 were it touches the low of a wave 2 of one higher degree. This would violate the rules and guidelines of Elliott waves.
As long as this low is in place, the count is still valid. Another view to this move is, that the high @ 29175 is a wave „b“ of a flat correction, (may a „running-flat“) which will terminate above the low @ 26006! Both interpretations are still valid and will keep the count alive.
The bearish view differs from the bullish in that, that the low @ 24540 was a wave“1“ and the countertrend after a „double zigzag“ correction that terminates at the area of a wave „4“ of lesser degree.
It is a bit „triggy“ to count the decline from the wave „2“ high the low in wave (i) as an impulse, but still possible. It looks more as a „three-down“ so this option is also valid too.
Overall I think the decline is not done and it should terminate above the 26006 levels to keep the bulls alive. Any decline below this level would bring the bears into forehand and open the door to lower prices in the coming days and weeks.
Have a great weekend...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
Possible dead cat bounce after selldownWuhan virus statistics show that fatality rate is still within 2% - 3% mark, despite infected cases being more than SARS. After 2 major sell-downs, HSI has now broken down from the up-trend channel. We might see a dead cat bounce back to the trend line, before going down to first support.
20 years of linear regression and price pattern (Weekly)Its seems that its is more likely for HSI to breakout upward.
What's your opinion, tell me more in the comment session below.
Hong Kong Stock Index (Can dive lower!)View On Hong Kong Stock Index (29 JAN 2020)
HSI just retest the lower band of UPtrend line.
After some struggle, it shall dive lower. I expecyt 26,500 - 26,800 region will be a next TP level.
At the same time, 28,000 will be a ceiling resistant
Whatever method you use if you do not follow the proper rule of risk management, it will have detrimental effects on your account.
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Hang Seng...Not done to the downside!Hello Traders,
Hang Seng gapped this session to the downside, leaving a massive open-gap @ 27949 – 27101 and crossed the middle line of the corrective trend channel. So this channel implies a corrective „character“ and opens the door to lower prices in the coming sessions.
The high on January 20 @ 27174.90 possibly was a wave „X“ as the move broke out of the upper line of the trend channel but failed to exceed higher highs at the following hours. Instead, it declined back into the channel and made lower lows, leaving an open gap and touched the middle line of the channel 27706 on Jan. 23.
The next day Hang Seng gapped lower again and closed the session at 27160. This is near the target range I called at my latter analysis. The next target level is at ~ 26750 area, the up-sloping trendline, depending on when and if it will achieve.
If so to come we have to check the pattern for more information. For now, it is clear to say, that more bearish potential exists!
Today`s gap-down could be an „acceleration-gap“, which often occurs at a wave „3 of 3“ in an impulsive pattern.
Only a push above 27988.60 will clear the chart for higher price to come (hourly close at minimum).
Till then we observe the pattern very closely and judge in the coming hours what`s next to expect.
Have a great week...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
HK50 shortCoronavirus makes trading fast and the short positions might go deeper than we expect. Wait for overbalance.
World Equities to Face Huge Selling Pressure due to CoronavirusHang Seng and major Chinese indices are going to be tested immensely with massive selling pressure as the virus continues to worsen; latest updates show contagiousness even before individuals show any sign of symptoms which is exacerbating the worry level in China and around the world. With rising cases, it is likely the WHO will declare a global emergency and when/if this happens that will sharpen the equity declines.
The markets, as overbought as they are around the world, particularly in the US, a 5% pullback cannot be ruled out.
As for the Hang Seng, the first target is roughly 27,150 with a 2nd target around 26,500. If the latter target fails we could see the Hang plummeting to 26,000 or lower.
In the long-term the markets will rebound, however it may be many weeks before the markets grapple with this. While in the past markets were able to rebound from H1N1, Ebola, Sars, etc, it is important to note the markets were not nearly as overbought as they have been (particularly the US markets). It cannot be ruled out that the SPX can fall to the 3026 level if this is not contained quickly. At this point, it seems that it will take a while to contain.
With a trade war still somewhat present, and a fragile global economy, this outbreak certainly has came at a very poor time.
- zSplit
HSI bounced from support, potential for a further rise!
HSI bounced off 27665.9 where it could potentially rise further to 28593.7.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully
understand the risks.
Hang Seng...A 0.382 Fibonacci achievedHello Traders,
Hang Seng topped on January 20 @ 29174.90 and declined to 27706 (intraday low) today. This move is a „three-wave“ down and left an „Island-reversal“ gap at chart. This kind of gap often occurs at the end of a trend and signals a change of trend possibly.
If this correction was an a-b-c of an expanding-flat, the move can progress to lower targets, or it was all of it, `cause the length of the second leg is more than a 2.618 Fibonacci of wave „a“. Normally at this point, we have to switch from a corrective count to an impulsive count (letters to numbers)! Note, that the correction passed the 0.382 Fibonacci of the total advance from 25995-29149. this was a typical retracement for a wave „4“ of any degree.
If it was all we can label the chart as a wave (4) low and hew highs are next to expect.
If not, there remains a lot of gaps at the downside, possibly they all are going to be closed at the coming hours and days ahead.
The indicators and oscillators are declining too(daily) and a break of the middle line of the trend channel (daily chart) opens the door to the lower boundary around the 27k area.
Have a great week...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
HSI bounced from support, potential for a further rise!
HSI bounced off 27665.9 where it could potentially rise further to 28593.7.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully
understand the risks.
Hang Seng: Emerging Golden Cross on 1D. Buy opportunity.This is an update to our HSI position posted in November with regards to the bullish signal on a symmetrical pattern as seen below:
At the moment the 1D chart is on neutral price action (RSI = 51.993, MACD = 310.060, ADX = 31.212) which technically is a good buy signal. On top of that, a Golden Cross is about to take place on the 1D chart, which is an even stronger buy signal and if the price bounces off of it, it will make a perfect Channel Up.
The first Target of 29,000 has already been achieved. 29,500 and 30,200 are next based on the Symmetrical Resistance levels.
In September, 2019 we've made a similar analysis with targets based on Fibonacci retracements and is already near the first target:
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HSI bounced from support, potential for a further rise!
HSI bounced off 27935.3 where it could potentially rise further to 28611.0.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully
understand the risks.
Be still......Yes, so I saw the sea of red across the global stock market, commodities, cryptocurrencies and futures as well.
For those who saw it coming and shorted the HSI, congratulations.
If you are long on HSI, like me, fret not and panic not. Apparently, it is due to the pneumonia flu that is happening in China and is spreading to other countries. And this is also exacerbated by Moody rating agency downgrading HK debt citing government inertia to control the ongoing protests.
Now, it looks like the selling seems to have taper down and may goes further south tomorrow or the day after to 27,564 level. At this level, I expect a rebound.
Like Sars that happened in 2003, the most affected industries would be the inbound and outbound tourism. However, due to the upcoming Spring Festival Holidays and millions of Chinese would be returning to their homeland (eg. those working in Tier 1 may return to Tier 2 or 3 and those abroad may return back to China) to have a yearly reunion with their family members.
In this aspect, I doubt the tour business would be severely affected. China is now doing all that it can to help contain the virus and hep allay public fears by napping those who spread fake news online, creating unnecessary anxiety to the public.
So, I would be awaiting tomorrow to see an opportunity to get in to HSI and many HK/China stocks that have fallen 1-5% today.
Trade safely, always use a SL, apply risk and capital management appropriately and adopt a positive mindset in trading and investment. GBU>
The Most Scary & Important Chart You NEED to See Right Now $HSIThe mainstream media is blaming the mysterious virus in China for the pullback in the Hang Seng index, we as a technical analyst view it differently.
Bullish view - It should bounce at the moving averages (red box) and confirms the double bottom and break out.
