NAS100I think its time to sell, Ive held this analysis for a while now and its still in play, currently on Daily TF we also have RSI Divergence confirmation along the pinned candle.
US100 trade ideas
Macro enviornment effects on equities - Flat to Bearish The current macro-geopolitical environment presents several quantifiable bearish pressures on the Nasdaq. Housing markets are showing real signs of deterioration, with home listings in Florida and other regions down 15–20% from peak prices, and many individual properties seeing $100K+ price cuts—foreshadowing a broader 24–30% drawdown in real estate that could significantly erode consumer wealth and confidence. Labor market weakness is emerging beneath the surface, with rising layoffs in tech and new graduates facing difficulty securing jobs, even as the Fed is projected to cut rates twice by year-end. While disinflation supports policy easing, it is being outweighed by the drag from labor and housing stress. Geopolitically, the escalation risk in the Iran–Israel conflict introduces volatility and commodity price spikes, while the Ukraine war, though stagnating, remains unresolved. U.S. foreign policy appears increasingly erratic, adding further uncertainty premium. These elements combine to create a risk environment where upside in the Nasdaq is capped, and downside exposure remains
Flat to Bearish for the next 12 months, drawdown up to 25% to December 2021 high on NDX and support line during recent tariff crashes. long sustained drawdown would sustain for a while if we get into situations like housing collapse, or entering into a war, even indirectly like we did for Ukraine.
significant. NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY
NASDAQ - Medium term prediction - 16/06/25On the NQ around 21,638, I’d estimate roughly:
Rally up through 22,248 first ~60%
Slide down through 21,024 first ~40%
Why?
Up-trend bias: Since the April low (≈16,000), the market has been in a strong rally, clearing multiple interim highs.
Resistance vs. support: 22,248 has capped rallies twice (Jan & Feb), so a break would be bullish but not guaranteed. Meanwhile 21,024 flipped to support in late May.
Momentum: The recent pullback from 22,000 was shallow, and daily MACD/RSI remain in bullish territory, suggesting a higher chance to retest the upper line before failing.
NASDAQ TRADING ROADMAP 16 - 20 JUNI 2025📉 NASDAQ TRADING ROADMAP – STRATEGY OUTLOOK 📉
The NASDAQ has rejected Magnet Area (SpH4) 21767.00 – 22067.00, signaling potential downside movement.
As long as price stays below Magnet Area (dmD) 21736.00 – 21863.00, the market is likely to continue its decline toward Magnet Area (dmH4) 21136.00 – 21020.00, especially if price breaks through Magnet Area (dmH4) 21524.00 – 21445.00.
📌 Roadmap Summary:
🔻 Rejection confirmed from (SpH4)
⬇️ Bearish bias valid while below (dmD)
🚨 Breakout trigger: (dmH4) 21524.00 – 21445.00
🎯 Target zone: (dmH4) 21136.00 – 21020.00
⚠️ DISCLAIMER:
This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk. Always conduct your own analysis and apply proper risk management before making any trading decisions.
US100Correlation Between US100 (Nasdaq 100), 10-Year Bond Yield, and Bond Prices
1. Relationship Between 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield and Bond Prices
Inverse Relationship:
Bond prices and yields move inversely. When the 10-year Treasury yield rises, bond prices fall, and vice versa. This is because the fixed coupon payments become less attractive when yields increase, causing existing bond prices to drop to offer comparable yields to new issues.
Current Data (June 13, 2025):
10-Year Treasury yield is around 4.40%, with the bond price near 98.81 (below par), reflecting recent yield increases.
Term Premium:
The term premium on the 10-year Treasury has risen sharply since early April 2025, reaching the highest level in over a decade. This premium compensates investors for risks that short-term yields may not evolve as expected, keeping long-term yields elevated and bond prices suppressed.
2. US100 (Nasdaq 100) and 10-Year Treasury Yield Correlation
Negative Correlation Generally Observed:
The Nasdaq 100 (US100), a tech-heavy equity index, often shows a negative correlation with 10-year Treasury yields. When yields rise, borrowing costs increase, discount rates for future earnings rise, and equities—especially growth stocks—tend to decline. Conversely, falling yields often boost equities.
Recent Trends:
In 2025, rising yields have put pressure on equities, including the Nasdaq 100, as investors demand higher returns from riskier assets. However, periods of yield stabilization or decline can support equity rallies.
Risk Sentiment:
The correlation can vary with market sentiment; during risk-off episodes, both equities and bond yields may fall as investors flock to safety.
3. US100 and Bond Prices
Indirect Relationship via Yields:
Since bond prices move inversely to yields, and yields often move inversely to equities, bond prices and equities like US100 often show a positive correlation in risk-off environments (both falling) and a negative correlation in risk-on environments (equities rising, bond prices falling).
Safe-Haven Demand:
In times of market stress, investors may sell equities and buy bonds, pushing bond prices up and yields down, while equities like US100 decline.
4. Yield Curve and Market Implications
The US yield curve has steepened recently, with the 10-year yield (~4.40%) above the 2-year yield (~3.95%), reflecting expectations of higher long-term inflation and growth risks.
A steepening curve can signal improving growth prospects but also higher financing costs, which can weigh on tech stocks in the US100.
Conclusion
The 10-year Treasury yield and bond prices move inversely, with recent yield increases pushing bond prices below par.
The Nasdaq 100 (US100) typically moves inversely to 10-year yields, as higher yields raise borrowing costs and discount rates, pressuring growth stocks.
The relationship between US100 and bond prices depends on market risk sentiment: in risk-off periods, bond prices rise while equities fall; in risk-on periods, the opposite occurs.
The current steepening yield curve and elevated term premium suggest ongoing volatility and cautious investor positioning affecting both bonds and equities.
#NAS100 #DOLLAR
US100Correlation Between US100 (Nasdaq 100), 10-Year Bond Yield, and Bond Prices
1. Relationship Between 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield and Bond Prices
Inverse Relationship:
Bond prices and yields move inversely. When the 10-year Treasury yield rises, bond prices fall, and vice versa. This is because the fixed coupon payments become less attractive when yields increase, causing existing bond prices to drop to offer comparable yields to new issues.
Current Data (June 13, 2025):
10-Year Treasury yield is around 4.40%, with the bond price near 98.81 (below par), reflecting recent yield increases.
Term Premium:
The term premium on the 10-year Treasury has risen sharply since early April 2025, reaching the highest level in over a decade. This premium compensates investors for risks that short-term yields may not evolve as expected, keeping long-term yields elevated and bond prices suppressed.
2. US100 (Nasdaq 100) and 10-Year Treasury Yield Correlation
Negative Correlation Generally Observed:
The Nasdaq 100 (US100), a tech-heavy equity index, often shows a negative correlation with 10-year Treasury yields. When yields rise, borrowing costs increase, discount rates for future earnings rise, and equities—especially growth stocks—tend to decline. Conversely, falling yields often boost equities.
Recent Trends:
In 2025, rising yields have put pressure on equities, including the Nasdaq 100, as investors demand higher returns from riskier assets. However, periods of yield stabilization or decline can support equity rallies.
Risk Sentiment:
The correlation can vary with market sentiment; during risk-off episodes, both equities and bond yields may fall as investors flock to safety.
3. US100 and Bond Prices
Indirect Relationship via Yields:
Since bond prices move inversely to yields, and yields often move inversely to equities, bond prices and equities like US100 often show a positive correlation in risk-off environments (both falling) and a negative correlation in risk-on environments (equities rising, bond prices falling).
Safe-Haven Demand:
In times of market stress, investors may sell equities and buy bonds, pushing bond prices up and yields down, while equities like US100 decline.
4. Yield Curve and Market Implications
The US yield curve has steepened recently, with the 10-year yield (~4.40%) above the 2-year yield (~3.95%), reflecting expectations of higher long-term inflation and growth risks.
A steepening curve can signal improving growth prospects but also higher financing costs, which can weigh on tech stocks in the US100.
Conclusion
The 10-year Treasury yield and bond prices move inversely, with recent yield increases pushing bond prices below par.
The Nasdaq 100 (US100) typically moves inversely to 10-year yields, as higher yields raise borrowing costs and discount rates, pressuring growth stocks.
The relationship between US100 and bond prices depends on market risk sentiment: in risk-off periods, bond prices rise while equities fall; in risk-on periods, the opposite occurs.
The current steepening yield curve and elevated term premium suggest ongoing volatility and cautious investor positioning affecting both bonds and equities.
#NAS100 #DOLLAR
Nasdaq must hold its line, otherwise more downsideMarkets are on edge. The Nasdaq is hovering just above its 200-day moving average and with so much angst in the market, this line must hold. If it breaks, risk sentiment could unravel quickly, and we could see a retest of recent 2025 lows.
The trigger isn’t hard to find. Rising tensions in the Middle East are putting upward pressure on oil and energy. A sustained rally in crude would reignite inflation fears just as central banks begin easing. Powell was supposed to start cutting, but wars are always complicated.
Higher energy costs hit consumers, slow growth and force policymakers to rethink their next moves. That’s a headwind for tech and growth names.
Equities have enjoyed a solid run this year, pricing in a soft landing. But that assumption now feels shaky. Particularly for risky assets like the Nasdaq. The Dow might do better relative. The market isn’t just worried about geopolitics. It’s digesting the reality that inflation remains sticky. Bond yields are rising. Rate cuts are being pushed back. And oil isn’t helping.
If the Nasdaq holds its 200-day line, the bulls stay in control. But a break below will shift the momentum. That’s why this week matters.
We’re watching a simple but powerful signal. Stay above 20,500 and markets can stabilise. Break below, and volatility returns.
This trade is only for the brave. The story is shifting. Stay alert.
The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.
NASDAQ Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring NAS100 for a selling opportunity around 21,700 zone, NASDAQ was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 21,700 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
NASDAQ Pullback or Reversal? Watching 4H Support ZonePrice is reacting from the 1D resistance zone around 21,950 and now hovering near a 4H support zone at ~21,520.
• 1D Chart: Long wick rejection from resistance.
• 4H Chart: Break of rising wedge and rejection from 1H trendline.
• 1H & 23m Chart: Clear bearish order block formed. Price consolidating under broken structure.
Key Zones:
• Support: 21,500 / 21,325
• Resistance: 21,900 / 22,000
Bias: Bearish below 21,750. Retest of support expected.
NAS100\ Bullish Play DevelopingNasdaq holds a strong bullish structure on the 4H, so I moved down to the 15-minute for a cleaner bird’s-eye view of price action. Liquidity was swept directly into a refined order block — a precise tap that validated the zone.
Price is now hovering around a 5-minute OB. Just observing and letting the market unfold.
Discipline and patience — that’s where the edge is.
— Inducement King 👑
Bless Trading!
NAS100...Ever The Bullish Instrument (Part 40)Since creating the Lowest point of 2025 (monthly HL) on 4/6/2025 @7:10 pm...The low for the NAS100 has closed higher every single week for the past 10 weeks.
This week will not be any different as the market heads continues to head back to the ATH and beyond.
As you look at the charts...the blue lines are my weekly boundaries and the visual is using the H4 chart so as to show you the progression over the last 10 weeks...absolutely no LH to LL trends are seen as continuous.
Do not get fooled into thinking that this market is in a downtrend.
Any sells on the NAS100 are only temporary retracements in order the make the HL on the larger timeframe.
As always, I stand by my stance that the NAS100 will continue to make HL's to HH's guaranteed.
Have a great trading week...
#oneauberstrategy
CHECK US100 SIGNAL READ CAPTAINus100 sell now ✅
entry point (21650) (21620)
TAKE PROFIT 1: (21550)
TAKE PROFIT 2: (21400)
LAST TARGET (21300)
STOP LOSS (21750)
Nasdaq is retracing from Triple TopNasdaq is retracing from Triple Top. Political situations in cities of US are furthur fueling this bearishness.
NASDAQ TRADING RESULT – JUNE 13, 2025📉 NASDAQ TRADING RESULT – JUNE 13, 2025 📉
Following the analysis from June 9, 2025, NASDAQ has reached the bearish target at Magnet Area (DmH4) 21524.00 on June 13, 2025.
The move started with a rejection from Magnet Area (SpH4) 21767.00 – 22067.00. As long as price remains below 21767.00, there is still downside potential toward Magnet Area (DmH4) 21136.00.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER:
This content is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading involves high risk. Always perform your own analysis and apply proper risk management.
NASDAQ break and retest: SHORTI found a good and solid breakout of a TL and its retesting now.
The retest is now on the broken TL, strong area of S/R and its fibo level..
We will see further drop in next week!!
CHEERRRSSS...!!!
Lets retire on Trump bullmarketLets retire on Trump bullmarket, last time Trump delivered 120% Nasdaq gains over 4 years lets see history repeat itself!
Perfect buy point is now, block all bearish american pigs and retire now.
Bearish SignalPrice is currently at the highest resistance NAS100 ever reached in its lifetime and failed to break, the last time it tested the resistance it dropped dismally confirming it’s a very strong resistance. There’s also a dynamic resistance supported by the trend line in green which was a support zone prior. Im very confident the resistance won’t break, if it were to ever break it’ll need a strong pull back which will definitely suppress TP1
Venta en Nasdaq impulsada por volatilidad macroeconómicaThe Nasdaq presents a technical short opportunity following a strong reaction to volatility triggered by recent macroeconomic events. This pressure has activated a risk-off environment, with capital flowing out of tech assets into safe havens like the dollar or bonds.
The price is respecting a bearish structure on higher timeframes and, after a technical pullback into supply zones, rejection is confirmed with volume and reversal candlesticks. I expect bearish continuation as long as key levels remain intact and macro uncertainty persists.
📍 Trade based on price action and fundamental context.
⚠️ Risk is managed according to the trading plan, adjustable based on macro developments.
USNAS100 | Bearish Below 21635 Amid Geopolitical UncertaintyUSNAS100 | OVERVIEW
The index is currently under bearish momentum driven by escalating geopolitical tensions.
As long as the situation remains unresolved, downward pressure is expected to continue.
Outlook:
As long as the price stays below the pivot at 21635, the index is likely to drop toward 21470.
A confirmed break below 21470 could accelerate the decline toward 21250, and eventually 21065.
Pivot Line: 21635
Support Levels: 21470, 21250, 21065
Resistance Levels: 21790, 21930, 22090
NSDQ100 uptrend consolidation supported at 21300Markets Rattled After Israel Strikes Iran
Israel launched major airstrikes on Iran, targeting nuclear and missile sites, as well as top military leaders. The move sharply escalates tensions in the Middle East and came despite warnings from former President Donald Trump, who was told of the attack only shortly beforehand. He later warned Iran that future strikes would be “even more brutal” if no deal is made.
Market Reaction:
Oil jumped up to 13% on fears of supply disruptions.
Gold climbed as investors rushed to safe-haven assets.
Stock futures and crypto fell on rising geopolitical risk.
The U.S. dollar dipped, then rebounded, as its role as a safe-haven asset came into focus.
Other Key Updates:
Trump wins court backing to keep troops in Los Angeles amid ongoing protests. A hearing is set for Tuesday.
Meta invests billions in Scale AI, bringing on its CEO to boost efforts in building artificial general intelligence. Meta is aggressively hiring top AI talent from firms like Google.
For Traders:
Watch oil and gold closely for continued volatility.
Safe-haven flows could drive further USD and gold moves.
Meta’s AI push may influence tech sector sentiment.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 22070
Resistance Level 2: 22370
Resistance Level 3: 22680
Support Level 1: 21300
Support Level 2: 21060
Support Level 3: 20820
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NASDAQ The bearish bias is supported by the COT data showing the majority of non-commercial traders are increasing their short positions. Sell/Short: Consider entering a short position at current levels, with a stop above the resistance zone (preferably just above the recent swing high).
Nasdaq-100 H1 | Swing-low support at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementThe Nasdaq-100 (NAS100) is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 21,479.25 which is a swing-low support that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 21,320.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support.
Take profit is at 21,721.90 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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