Bear Market FormingVery big things happening in the economy this quarter, mainly trade wars, real wars, and new policies.
Job cuts 100k+ government job cuts, 25-50k more expected in the coming months. In addition to 35k tech layoffs, and 38,956 retail job cut announcement. So probably 225k+ jobs lost this year
The number of people employed part-time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 million in February.
Tarrifs are divided, some calling it inflationary, but statements from JPM: "Roughly half of the GDP decline from higher tariffs is attributed to a negative sentiment shock related to rising trade policy uncertainty." and RBC: "Based on 2024 import data from Canada, Mexico, and China, the announced tariffs could boost total U.S. tariff revenues by about $300 billion" at least show potential offsets.
War has been ongoing, but increased economic activity from Russia, and stimulus in the EU increase liquidity in the markets.
But all of that is going to take time to settle, so you cant write off another 6 months of a downtrend of up to 10% in equities - until we get more information introduced to the market.
