5 May Weekly NAS100 Forecast USTECH: Trade Talks and Fed Decision in Focus
Analysis:
Markets are at a pivotal juncture as investors monitor two critical developments: the potential resumption of U.S.-China trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision.
Trade Negotiations: Renewed dialogue between the U.S. and China could alleviate tariff pressures, stabilize global supply chains, and bolster investor confidence, thereby reducing recession risks.
Federal Reserve Decision: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on May 6–7, 2025. While the Fed is widely expected to maintain the current interest rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, market participants are keenly awaiting Chair Jerome Powell's commentary for insights into future monetary policy directions.
Market Bias: Cautiously Bullish
The confluence of potential trade resolutions and a steady monetary policy stance supports a cautiously optimistic outlook. However, market volatility may persist pending concrete developments.
Key Levels to Watch:
USTECH (NASDAQ 100):
Resistance: 20 531
Support: 19 481
Conclusion:
Investors should remain vigilant, monitoring both geopolitical developments and central bank communications, as these factors will significantly influence market trajectories in the near term.
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
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US100 trade ideas
Prices are entering critical battleground between bulls & bears(The following is solely personal opinion and not investment advice. Please exercise your own judgment before making any decisions.)
Last week, the market was driven by positive news and continued its upward breakout, now surpassing the 200-day moving average.
This week, attention should be paid to price and volume performance. If prices fail to break higher convincingly, a pullback may begin. However, if positive sentiment continues to dominate, the upward trend could persist.
Key resistance levels are at 20,700 and 21,070. If the price breaks above 20,700 this week without showing signs of significant retracement, the market may test higher levels.
On the downside, the key support zone lies between 19,978 and 20,255. If the price struggles to maintain upward momentum and consolidates below the 200-day moving average, the likelihood of a downward reversal increases. The first target on the downside would then be in the 18,277 to 18,588 range.
Last week’s performance serves as a reminder that when most expect the Fed’s FOMC decisions to trigger a market drop, prices often behave contrary to expectations. In the current market environment, it’s crucial to recognize that the market won’t rise or fall indefinitely. At critical price levels, risk control and timely position adjustments are essential.
NASDAQ (NDX) Market OutlookCurrently, the NASDAQ is trading around 19,723. We're anticipating a short-term pullback toward the 19,462 level, where a significant pool of liquidity awaits. This zone could act as a magnet for price in the near term. Once price reaches this area, we’ll closely monitor the lower timeframes for a potential bullish reaction or accumulation, which could signal the next leg higher.
Stay patient and let price confirm at key levels.
NAS100USD: SMT Divergence Hints at Potential ReversalGreetings Traders,
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, although the current market structure reflects bearish institutional order flow, there are growing signs that a potential reversal may be forming.
Key Observations:
1. Smart Money Technique (SMT) Divergence:
We are currently observing SMT divergence—a strategy where the underlying asset (NAS100) is compared against its benchmark (US500). These indices typically maintain a 90–100% correlation. However, when this correlation breaks down, it often signals that a reversal may be imminent. In this case, while NAS100 continues to show bearish momentum, the divergence from US500 suggests the possibility of bullish interest building.
2. Institutional Support at the Rejection Block:
Further confluence for a potential reversal lies in the presence of a rejection block acting as a strong institutional support level. This is a zone where smart money previously defended price, and if confirmed, it could provide an optimal entry for long positions.
Trading Plan:
We will monitor the rejection block for confirmation of bullish intent before entering any trades. If confirmed, the idea is to target the buy-side liquidity residing in premium pricing zones.
Invalidation Level : This reversal idea will be invalidated if NAS500 breaks below its most recent swing low.
Stay alert for confirmation, and always ensure the idea fits within your broader trading framework.
Kind regards,
The Architect
Nasdaq-100 H4 | Falling toward a pullback supportThe Nasdaq-100 (NAS100) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 19,595.55 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 18,900.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support.
Take profit is at 20,343.35 which is a swing-high resistance.
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Understanding the Crab's Potential Ascent Before the DescentCurrent market analysis suggests a potential temporary surge in the Nasdaq index, colloquially referred to as a "crab walk," possibly reaching a level of 20.4 before a significant correction.
While this upward movement may present short-term opportunities, it is crucial to recognize its potential transience.
X2: NQ/US100/NAS100 Short - Day Trades 1:2X2:
Risking 1% to make 2%
NAS100, US100, NQ, NASDAQ Short for day trade, with my back testing of this strategy, it hits multiple possible take profits, manage your position accordingly.
Risking 1% to make 2%
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice
NAS100 BUY Trade ideia. 1-10RRNAS100 BUY Trade ideia. 1-10RR. After the TP hit from yesterday Im still expecting more bullish momentum so Im waiting to see if I can get this 1-10RR or at least 1-5RR from this. Remember we need confirmations to enter the trade. It has to brake structure in 5min before we enter.
Lets see
The Nasdaq 100’s rally may be coming to an endThe Nasdaq 100 has staged an impressive rally over the past two weeks, climbing more than 12% since Monday 21 April to close at roughly 19,970 on Monday 5 May. However, if there were a point at which the advance might pause, it could be near current levels. The index has risen to a key area of technical resistance in the 19,900 to 20,200 range, which could prove challenging to break through, especially given the uncertain outlook.
One driver behind the Nasdaq 100’s rise has been the fall in implied volatility, as indicated by the VXN. While the better-known Vix measures expected volatility in the S&P 500 over the next month of trading, the VXN measures volatility on the Nasdaq 100. It has recently dropped to a reading of 25.7, down from more than 50 in April, as shown on the chart below. This decline in implied volatility probably triggered significant unwinding of put positions in the options market, allowing market-maker hedging flows to provide a tailwind for stocks. But with the VXN now back at levels last seen on 2 April, this tailwind may no longer be available to support the market.
Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 has returned to the 61.8% retracement level, a significant Fibonacci level that frequently acts as strong resistance and could help determine whether the recent rebound is genuine or merely a short-term blip. Just above this 61.8% retracement lies the 200-day moving average, another level that typically provides strong resistance. Furthermore, the 19,950 region has consistently acted as both support and resistance, dating back to June 2024. With these three resistance areas converging, it may be challenging for the tech-heavy index to sustain its upward momentum. Should stocks begin to reverse lower, initial support may be around 19,300, followed by a gap at 18,240.
That said, if the Nasdaq 100 somehow manages to overcome all these hurdles, it could rise to 21,100 – though such a move appears unlikely at this stage.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
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NAS100 1H | Major Rejection Zone – Time to Sell?NAS100 is trading inside a key supply zone, showing clear rejection signs near 19,825, with a potential downside move on the table.
Watch These Levels:
Resistance (Rejection Zone): 19,825
First Support: 18,328
Major Demand Zone: 16,948
Bearish Bias if price fails to break and close above 19,825.
A break below 18,328 could trigger a deeper drop toward 16,948.
Trade Plan:
Sell near 19,825 with SL above zone
Target 18,328 → 16,948
Bullish reversal only above clean breakout
What do you think—pullback or breakout?
#NAS100 #NASDAQ #Indices #PriceAction #SupplyAndDemand #SmartMoney #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #LuxAlgo #US100 #CFD
NAS100USD: Volatility Opens Door for Sell Setup in NY SessionGreetings Traders,
As we enter the New York session—a period known for heightened volatility—we note that NAS100USD remains in a broader bullish environment. However, current price action suggests the potential for a short-term reversal, prompting us to explore selling opportunities.
Key Observations:
1. Bearish Internal Structure Developing:
Despite the overall bullish trend, internal price action reveals a sequence of lower lows, indicating the formation of a bearish microstructure. This internal weakness is reflected in the way bearish arrays—such as mitigation blocks and fair value gaps (FVGs)—continue to act as resistance zones.
2. Mitigation Block & FVG Alignment:
Recently, price delivered a strong displacement to the downside, followed by a retracement into a mitigation block that aligns with a fair value gap. This confluence reinforces the bearish bias and suggests institutional selling may be active in this zone.
3. Downside Targets – Gap Fill & Liquidity Pools:
The first downside target is a nearby inefficiency (gap) in price action, which the market often seeks to fill. The second target lies below, where sell-side liquidity pools are likely resting.
Trading Plan:
Monitor price behavior within the current resistance zone. If confirmation of continued bearish momentum appears, short positions targeting the aforementioned levels may be viable.
Stay focused and wait for confirmation before committing to any positions.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
US100 WILL GO DOWN|SHORT|
✅US100 price grew again to retest the resistance of 20,300
But it is a strong key level
And we are already seeing
A local bearish pullback
So I think that there is a high chance
That we will see a bearish move down
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Hanzo | Nas100 15 min Breaks – Will Confirm the Next Move🆚 Nas100 – Hanzo’s Strike Setup
🔥 Timeframe: 15-Minute (15M)
——————
💯 Main Focus: Bullish Break Out at 19980
We are watching this zone closely.
💯 Main Focus: Bearish Break at 19890
We are watching this zone closely.
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Analysis
👌 Market Signs (15M TF):
• Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 20030
• Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 19750
• Strong Rejections seen at:
➗ 19890 – Major support / Key level
➗ 20050 – Proven resistance
🩸 Key Zones to Watch:
• 19950 – 🔥 Bullish breakout level X 7 Swing Retest
• 19980 – Strong resistance (tested 5 times)
• 19900 – Equal lows
• 19980 – Equal highs
X2: NQ/US100/NAS100 Long - Day Trades 1:2X2:
Risking 1% to make 2%
NAS100, US100, NQ, NASDAQ Long for day trade, with my back testing of this strategy, it hits multiple possible take profits, manage your position accordingly.
Risking 1% to make 2%
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice
NASDAQ Fall? US100 AnalysisHello everyone.
We had a volatility at stock market last 2 month, it looks like market had good correction and found new buyer. BUT I DON'T THINK LIKE THAT.
After MR. Trump inauguration we saw bear market signals, it was like hedge funds dumped stocks, but after strong sell new buyers came at market and show us pretty good market correction but what will be next? The last 2 months brought intense volatility post-Trump’s inauguration. Hedge funds sold off heavily (S&P 500 dropped ~8% from its December high), but buyers stepped in, pushing a 5% retracement. RSI on SPY shows oversold conditions fading, yet I’m skeptical of this bounce.
Why? Bearish signals linger. VIX remains elevated (>20), and volume on up days is weaker than selloffs. Plus, geopolitics could derail this rally. Over the weekend, Ukraine and Russia discussed a 30-day ceasefire. If talks fail, the West’s new sanctions could spike oil prices (Brent crude already testing $80) and hammer energy-heavy indices like XLE or European markets (DAX).
I’m watching SPY’s 200-day MA (~510) as key support. A break below could signal a deeper pullback to 480. Energy and tech (QQQ) look vulnerable if sanctions hit. What’s your take—buying this dip or bracing for more downside?
Here is my 2 scene what i am expect from market, for me Scene and technical view scene 2 is more logical bur we will see what will be next step for stock market.
For collaboration text me in DM!!!
Always make your own research!!!