Fear @ Greed Index In Nasdaq.The potential future decline of the Nasdaq index is attributed to concerns surrounding the Fibonacci level of 1.138, as indicated by the harmonic shark pattern .
At the 0.88 level, the fear index has surpassed the greed index, and it currently stands at 1.138. This apprehension is also affecting those who are typically driven by greed.
US100 trade ideas
NQ: Crumbs left to the upsideGood day!
Following the weekly analysis, here are possible movements for the next few sessions.
As I mentioned few times now, there is still small room left to the upside followed by a consolidation before resuming the down trend with the beginning of Wave 3 and its Initial Swing.
Price has already made a new HH. Price might continue up without making a new HL. But I see a HL first. GL!
NAS100USD: Institutional Selling Initiated at Premium LevelsGreetings Traders,
Today on NAS100USD, the market is currently operating within a clear bearish institutional order flow. In alignment with this directional bias, we are seeking selling opportunities supported by several key confluences.
Key Observations:
1. Liquidity Sweep at Premium Pricing:
Price has retraced deeply into a premium zone, sweeping the buy stops above a recent swing high. This suggests smart money is executing sell-side order pairing at extreme premium levels, utilizing retail liquidity for institutional distribution. When this occurs, price typically seeks rebalancing at fair value zones and continues toward discount levels.
2. Resistance at Fair Value Gap:
Following the liquidity sweep, price encountered resistance at a previously identified fair value gap (FVG). This FVG has held effectively, reinforcing the bearish outlook and acting as a high-probability rejection zone.
3. Market Structure Shift (MSS):
The market has now confirmed a bearish market structure shift, further validating the downside bias. This shift positions us to anticipate a continuation move.
4. Mitigation Block as Entry Zone:
We are currently watching a mitigation block for potential re-entries. These blocks represent zones where smart money mitigates previous long positions and introduces new short positions in alignment with the prevailing trend. If confirmed, they offer a strategic point to enter short trades.
Trading Plan:
Monitor the mitigation block for confirmation and look to enter with the broader institutional trend. Targets will include fair value regions and deeper liquidity pools at discount prices.
Remain patient and disciplined, and always ensure your analysis aligns with your trading plan.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
Bullish bounce off pullback support?USTEC has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance which is an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 19,189.77
1st Support: 18,580.75
1st Resistance: 20,258.77
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce?NAS100 is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 18,908.67
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 18,461.05
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 20,200.53
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
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Hanzo | Nas100 15 min Breaks – Will Confirm the Next Move🆚 Nas100 – Hanzo’s Strike Setup
🔥 Timeframe: 15-Minute (15M)
——————
💯 Main Focus: Bullish Breakout at 19450
We are watching this zone closely.
💯 Main Focus: Bearish Breakout at 19300
We are watching this zone closely.
📌 If price breaks with high volume, it confirms Smart Money is in control, and a strong move may follow.
———
Analysis
👌 Market Signs (15M TF):
• Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 19460
• Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 19000
• Strong Rejections seen at:
➗ 19100 – Major support / Key level
➗ 19450 – Proven resistance
🩸 Key Zones to Watch:
• 19450 – 🔥 Bullish breakout level X 3 Swing Retest
• 19460 – Strong resistance (tested 5 times)
• 19100 – Equal lows
• 19500 – Equal highs
X2: NQ/US100/NAS100 Short - Day Trades 1:2 RRX2:
Risking 1% to make 2%
NAS100, US100, NQ, NASDAQ Short for day trade, with my back testing of this strategy, it hits multiple possible take profits, manage your position accordingly.
Risking 1% to make 2%
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice
$NAS100 / $QQQ – The 200 SMA Breakout... or Bull Trap?📈 Nasdaq just charged through the 200-day moving average like it wasn’t even there. But if you zoom out, this level has acted as a brick wall before — and we may be walking straight into a trap.
🔍 Key Observations:
The last failed breakout above this zone led to a major rejection.
We're back at horizontal resistance from prior tops.
Price action resembles a Rope-a-dope move — run up, suck in longs, then rug pull.
⚠️ No real breakout without confirmation + volume. Don’t let the short-term green candles distract you from the macro ceiling above.
Silver Bullet 10am-11amPrior to previous idea shared. Setup to go long and fill FVG in 1hr-30min 930 Est. With no key level sweep, it was clear but risky as price needs to be balanced before challenging the highs or lows. As there was not clear Bearish BOS in NY. The NY low made after 930 used as sweep to enter and challenge FVG.
Trade managed well, secured profits at CE of 30min FVG in NY
5min IFVG in leg of sweep + counter FVG confirming bulls stepping in wit lows being manipulated. +- 1:2 secured.
Tomorrow same thing...$$$ ;)
NASDAQ broke above its 1D MA200 after 2 months! Target 22000.Nasdaq (NDX) broke today above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in more than 2 months (since March 06), following the U.S. - Chine trade deal. This trend-line also had the March 26 rejection under its belt, which initiated the most aggressive part of the 'Trade War' correction.
The last time the index broke above its 1D MA200 on a similar pattern was when it was recovering after the bottom of the 2022 Inflation Crisis. The February 01 2023 break-out produced an instant rise to the 1.382 Fibonacci extension before a short-term correction to re-test the 1D MA200.
As a result, we expect 22000 (1.382 Fib ext) to come as early as this week before any discussions can be made for a new pull-back.
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💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
X2: NQ/US100/NAS100 Short - Day Trades 1:2X2:
Risking 1% to make 2%
NAS100, US100, NQ, NASDAQ Short for day trade, with my back testing of this strategy, it hits multiple possible take profits, manage your position accordingly.
Risking 1% to make 2%
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice
Hanzo : NAS100 15m: Bearish Confirmed After Liquidity Trap Done🔥 NAS100 – 15 Min Scalping Analysis (Bearish Setup)
Bias: Bearish
Time Frame: 15 Min
Entry Type: Confirmed Entry After Liquidity Sweep 20720
🩸 Key Reasons for Entry:
☄️Price manipulated above previous high (liquidity grab trap).
☄️Strong rejection from key supply zone with SMC confluence.
☄️Bearish order block + break of market structure.
☄️Entry respects higher timeframe resistance level.
🔤 Fair value gap / imbalance completed.
🔻Setup aligned with institutional reversal window
Target: Next 15M demand zone / 1:3+ RR
Status: trade active 👌
Trade Idea - possible to outcomes2 potential scenarios. If the price action closes below the 1st dotted red line(MSS), we would expect the 30min iFVG to be respected as resistance, which would serve as our MSS + Displacement. The subsequent candle would then provide confirmation regarding the validity of the candle at 9am NY Time in relation to the next FVG to trade off to London Low.
#NDQ - What does these lines say? Do they work?Hey, hope you are all doing great!
I strongly believe that you are looking at these charts to your advantage. Are the lines marked in these charts make any sense? Do these lines really work? check out these charts at a lower time frames and see. Since these are directionless, how to read?
Current Price: 20061.45
Mid-line: 19927.42
Upside: 20783.90, 21216.80, 21700.31 and 22183.83
Downside: 19072.54, 18638.04, 18154.52 and 17671.00
#NDQ
US100: Ready to Explode !!US100: Ready to Explode !!
Hey Traders,
Price is showing a bullish momentum on Nasdaq and created some bullish configurations, suggesting continuation to the upside.
Target : 20898.1 - 23599.4
#US100 #Nasdaq #BullishSetup #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #FXTrading #Indices #ChoCH #TradeIdeas #StockMarket
NAS100 - Stock Market Expects a Devastating Week!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. I expect corrective moves from the specified range, but if the index corrects towards the demand range, we can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with a good risk-reward ratio.
U.S. stock futures responded positively to signals from both Chinese and American officials. Looking ahead to the coming week, investor focus is squarely on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the United States—marking the first chance to assess the impact of the new tariffs implemented on April 9.
Meanwhile, ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China remain a crucial factor, with significant implications for inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and overall market expectations. In addition to inflation data, retail sales figures and the preliminary results of the University of Michigan sentiment survey could influence market outlook regarding interest rates—especially since price stability and full employment remain core mandates of the Federal Reserve. At present, Fed officials are working to maintain a cautious stance in order to anchor inflation expectations. However, if clear signs of economic weakness emerge, that stance could shift rapidly—something that several Fed officials have already openly acknowledged.
Retail sales, in particular, could provide a different narrative about the health of the economy. After a notable 1.5% jump in March, estimates suggest that growth in April slowed to just 0.1%. This deceleration may reflect consumer reluctance to spend, stemming either from inflationary pressures or broader economic uncertainty.
Thursday’s data release will include the Producer Price Index (PPI), industrial production, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index—offering a clearer picture of supply-side dynamics and the performance of the industrial sector.
On Friday, attention will turn to a fresh batch of economic indicators: building permits, housing starts, the New York (Empire State) manufacturing index, and especially the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment survey. This survey has gained importance in recent months due to notable increases in both one-year and five-year inflation expectations. As recent charts indicate, while consumer confidence has plummeted to multi-year lows, inflation expectations have trended upward—a worrisome combination that could limit the Fed’s ability to ease monetary policy.
Although concerns about a U.S. recession persist, recent data suggest more of a “gradual slowdown” rather than signs of an imminent crisis. In March, both the CPI and PCE indices declined, indicating a temporary easing of inflationary pressures. However, this trend may reverse in April, as the broad implementation of reciprocal tariffs likely raised import costs—particularly for Chinese goods, which now face duties as high as 145%.
New estimates indicate that these tariffs could add 2.25% to core inflation over the next year, effectively reversing the progress made in 2024 on taming price pressures.Prior to the Trump administration’s tariff announcements, economists had differing views on inflation, with some expecting it to approach the Fed’s 2% annual target by year-end. Contrary to trade experts, Trump claimed that sellers would not pass these price increases on to consumers.
Goldman Sachs’ analysis this week suggests that Trump’s tariffs could push inflation to levels not seen since the post-pandemic price surge. The broad import taxes announced between February and April may have a substantial impact on the economy, and consumers are likely to feel the effects first at the checkout counter. Goldman economists estimate that the tariffs could drive annual inflation—as measured by core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)—to 3.8% by December, marking the highest rate since 2023. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose 2.6% last year.
This metric remains above the Fed’s 2% target and has shown limited progress toward that goal since 2023. The last time inflation was below this benchmark was in January 2021.
A renewed wave of price increases could severely strain American household budgets—particularly if the labor market also weakens, as many economists anticipate. This would also represent a significant setback for the Federal Reserve, which has kept interest rates elevated since 2022 in an effort to combat post-pandemic inflation.
While inflation hovered around 3% at the beginning of 2024 with little change, it saw a notable drop in March. Many analysts forecast that inflation will continue to decline and approach the 2% target by the end of 2025.
Walker and Peng’s analysis factored in both the direct effects of tariffs—most of which will likely be passed on to consumers—and several indirect consequences. The trade war has unexpectedly weakened the U.S. dollar, reducing Americans’ purchasing power.
Moreover, some manufacturers may shift production away from China, where tariffs are particularly severe, to locations with higher production costs. As a result, American consumers may end up paying significantly more for imported goods, especially in categories like consumer electronics and apparel.
Technical Breakdown on US 100 | 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on US 100 Cash CFD (1H) using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
Value Area High (VAH): 20,500
Value Area Low (VAL): 20,000 (approx. based on volume shading)
Point of Control (POC): 20,062.08
High-volume nodes: Dense around 20,050–20,100 – indicative of value acceptance.
Low-volume gaps: Sharp price movement through 20,150–20,250 – price could revisit here swiftly.
b) Liquidity Zones:
Stop Cluster Zones:
Order Absorption Zones:
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
Swing High Volume Spike: Near 20,500 – rejection occurred with CVD flattening.
Swing Low Volume Spike: 20,000 – strong reversal point, indicates buyer interest.
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
Trend Direction: Uptrend currently, but potential divergence forming.
ADX Strength:
CVD Confirmation:
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
Support:
Resistance:
b) Gann-Based Levels:
Recent Confirmed High: 20,506
Recent Confirmed Low: 20,000
Retracements:
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend: Short-term Bullish, but with early signs of divergence (based on projected price/CVD path)
Confirmed by breakout above POC with rising CVD initially.
b) Notable Patterns:
Ascending Channel Breakout: Strong push above upper boundary on momentum.
Volume Gap Fill Potential: Price may return to 20,250 or lower on exhaustion.
POC Retest Scenario: High probability of price testing 20,062 if strength fades.
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bullish Entry (If uptrend sustains):
Entry Zone: 20,250–20,300 (channel midpoint or pullback after breakout)
Targets:
Stop-Loss (SL): 20,150 (below volume gap midpoint)
RR: Minimum 1:2
b) Bearish Entry (If divergence confirms):
Entry Zone: 20,500–20,525 (fakeout/stop hunt zone)
Target:
Stop-Loss (SL): 20,600
RR: Minimum 1:2
c) Position Sizing: Risk 1–2% of capital per trade.